Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid. EPRI Smart Grid Demonstration Initiative

Transcription

1 Costs and of the EU-US Assessment Methodologies November 7, 2011 Jeffrey D. Roark Sr Project Manager Demonstrations EPRI Demonstration Initiative Publicly Available: Product ID

2 Status of Host-Site Demonstrations Data Demonstration Host Sites Planning Deploying Collection Analysis American Electric Power Con Edison Duke Energy Electricité de France Ergon Energy ESB Networks Exelon (ComEd/PECO) FirstEnergy/JCP&L Hawaiian Electric Co Hydro-Québec KCP&L PNM Resources SMUD Southern California Edison Southern Company 3 Cost-Benefit Analysis Guiding Documents Methodological Approach, published Jan, 2010 Jointly funded by DOE and EPRI Provides framework for estimating benefits & costs Provides definitions, concepts and data sources Publicly available: Product ID CBA Guidebook, Volume 1: Measuring, published May, 2011 provides a manual for practical application with step by step instruction provides guidance for documenting the project in detail and approach to perform a CBA, includes templates for working through the process. Publicly available: Product ID

3 Goal of the CBA Process: Maximizing Learning Maximize learning from projects by Advancing understanding of where, how, and why technologies perform as they do Promoting transferability of results For learning to be maximized: Methodologies must be credible Results must be verifiable by others We address these goals by applying the Scientific Method: Formulating, testing, and modifying hypotheses through experimentation, observation, and measurement. 5 Overview of Evaluation Process (physical measures) (monetized) List Technologies, Devices, & Systems Examples: AMI/Smart meters Distribution Automation 2-way communication Smart Appliances Intelligent Electronic Devices (IEDs) Describe Systems Intended Examples: Volt/VAR control Dynamic Capability Rating Flow control Intelligent line switching Real-time load management Compare project performance to baseline case Example measures: kwh reduction Peak kw reduction Loss reductions Outage reductions Improved asset utilization Monetize physical measures Example metrics: Fuel savings Capacity savings Reduced outage costs Customer bill reductions Reductions in CO 2, Hg, etc. 6

4 Overview of Evaluation Process (physical measures) (monetized) SG Tables 4-4 and 4-8 in Methodological Approach and Tables 5-1 and 5-2 in CBA Guidebook 7 Cost/Benefit Analysis Guidebook for SG Demos Overview of Evaluation Process (physical measures) (monetized) Does it work? Is it worth doing? Demonstrate physical impacts of technologies in specific applications. Estimate economic viability of the demonstrated applications. 8

5 Completing the Cost/Benefit Analysis Observed Treatment Quantities/Measures (data) Observed Baseline Quantities/Measures (data) Customer outages & durations Transformer/phase load duration Man hours maintenance Lapse times for trouble crews Truck rolls i.e., quantities measured with meters, timers, and counters Measurements Impact Metrics Monetization CBA Analysis Methodology (algorithms) Conversion Factors & Other Independent Data Physical constants Conversion factors Calendar & Holidays Loss of life statistics i.e., objective data used in analysis to translate measurements into metrics Impact Metrics ΔSAIFI ΔSAIDI kwh Saved kw Reduced i.e., higher-level derived quantities describing physical impacts Impact Monetization and Analysis Cost Factors & Other Independent Data Labor Costs Equipment Survivor Curves Cost per crew hour/truck roll Marginal cost of power i.e., cost rates or other data to monetize Impact Metrics for cost/benefit analysis Cost/Benefit Analysis Total Project Cost Total by Beneficiary Benefit/Cost ratio i.e., estimates of past and future costs & benefits The Physical Question: Does it work? Economic Question: Is it worth doing? 9 Hypotheses Drive Experiment Design Some benefits occur far from site of deployment. Prior to experimentation and measurement, impacts and benefits must be traced back to physical, measurable quantities local to the project. Hypotheses for experimentation are developed to drive experimental design, to expose measurable quantities. Expected Physical Verified Experiment Physical Measurable Hypotheses Physical Design Quantities 10

6 Issues Monetizing Timing of Costs and Hard and Soft Who pays, and who benefits? Marginal rates and marginal costs (the Lost Revenue problem) Economic Environmental Reliability & Power Quality Security & Safety Beneficiaries Utilities Customers Society 11 QUESTIONS? Jeffrey D. Roark Sr. Project Manager Economics Electric Power Research Institute 3379 Lakewind Way Alpharetta, GA

7 Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 13