HYDROPREDICT 2012 Vienna, 25th September 2012

Transcription

1 Developing an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change: the example of a Portuguese water supply company Nuno Grosso, David Avelar, Tiago Lourenço, Rita Jacinto, Maria João Cruz cciam.adaptaclima@fis.siam.ul.pt HYDROPREDICT 2012 Vienna, 25th September

2 Presentation outline 1.Project framework 1.EPAL System 2.Motivation and objectives 2.Methodology A.Definition of an Adaptation Strategy 3.First Results 4.Main conclusions

3 Project Framework and Objectives

4 EPAL Main Water Supply Utility in Portugal EPAL system Abstraction, treatment, transport and water supply Direct supplier Lisbon ( upstream clients) & indirect supplier 33 Municipalities (clients serving population) Total population served 2,8 million

5 EPAL system 5 EPAL s System Surface Water - dam reservoir [162,4 hm 3 (2010)] - CASTELO DE BODE Surface Water - river abstraction [56,6 hm 3 (2010)] - VALADA TEJO Surface water Groundwater Adapted from: Público 2012 Current Groundwater [23,4 hm 3 (2010)] - OTA - ALENQUER - LEZÍRIAS

6 Project framework and objectives How will water resources availability (quantity and quality) change under Climate Change? Is EPAL vulnerable to Climate Change? How should we respond in the short, medium and long term? ADAPTACLIMA aims to provide EPAL with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to identify and reduce the vulnerabilities of its activities to climate change But how?

7 Methodology

8 Stakeholders 1. Modeling future climate impacts 2. Defining adaptation options 3. Evaluating adaptation options 4. Build an adaptation strategy

9 Adapted from: Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process N. Ranger, A. Millner, S. Dietz, S. Fankhauser, A. Lopez and G. Ruta. The framework for adaptation decision-making. Definition of an adaptation strategy Define adaptation objectives Build an Adaptation Pathway Assess current vulnerabilities Stakeholders Test options performance and identify thresholds Modeling future climate impacts Defining and evaluating adaptation options

10 Definition of an adaptation strategy

11 First Results

12 Global Climate Scenarios (HadCM3, A2/B2) Future impact assessment Global Socioeconomic Scenarios (SRES, IPCC) Statistical downscaling for study area Downscaled scenarios for study area (linear) Impact Assessments (Water availibility/quality): Surface water Groundwater Saltwater intrusion (Tagus R.)

13 Global Climate Scenarios (HadCM3, A2/B2) Results - Climate Scenarios Global Socioeconomic Scenarios (SRES, IPCC) Statistical downscaling for study area Downscaled scenarios for study area (linear) Impact Assessments: Surface water Groundwater Saltwater intrusion (Tagus R.)

14 Max. Temp. Annual Avg. (ºC) Max. Temp. Annual Avg. (ºC) Annual Precipitation (mm) Annual Precipitation (mm) Precipitation A2 Results - Climate Scenarios Precipitation B2 Maximum Temperature A2 Maximum Temperature B2 - Maximum temperature will increase 1.7 to 3º C in scenario B2 and A2, by the end of the century, when compared to the period - Average annual precipitation is expected to decrease about 55 (7.6%) and 151 mm (20.9%) by the end of century in scenarios A2 and B2 respectively, when compared to the period

15 Results - Socio-economic Scenarios Global Climate Scenarios (HadCM3, A2/B2) Global Socioeconomic Scenarios (SRES, IPCC) Statistical downscaling for study area Downscaled scenarios for study area (linear) Impact Assessments: Surface water Groundwater Saltwater intrusion (Tagus R.)

16 Results - Socio-economic Scenarios Socioeconomic Scenarios Adaptaclima-EPAL 1. Population Scenarios 2. Land Use Scenarios 3. Water Withdrawals Scenarios Input: WatClim scenarios for Europe and Portugal data from EPAL, INE, PNA Output: Downscaled scenarios for each sector [Study Area, EPAL Supply area, Lisboa and Batalha Municipality] Jacinto et al., Water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change of a water supply company

17 Results - Socio-economic Scenarios Base year Agriculture * m ,6% 98,25% Industry * m 3 Domestic * m 3 Services * m 3 48,72% 49,77%

18 Results - Socio-economic Scenarios Base year Agriculture * m ,2% 59,4% Industry * m 3 Domestic * m 3 Services * m 3 28% 58,3%

19 Results - Socio-economic Scenarios Base year Agriculture * m ,7% 46,6% Industry * m 3 Domestic * m 3 Services * m 3 37,5% 52,2%

20 Results - Socio-economic Scenarios Base year Agriculture * m ,7% 63,90% Industry * m 3 Domestic * m 3 Services * m 3 48,72% 74,12% different scenarios considered indicate reductions in water use in the study area driven mostly by a reduction in agricultural area and increases in water consumption efficiency;

21 First results Surface water availability Global Climate Scenarios (HadCM3, A2/B2) Global Socioeconomic Scenarios (SRES, IPCC) Statistical downscaling for study area Downscaled scenarios for study area (linear) Impact Assessments: Surface water Groundwater Saltwater intrusion (Tagus R.) Adaptation

22 Results from Nunes et al. (working drafts) First results Surface water availability Caudal anual (hm3) Preliminary results (not published - please do not cite) Surface Water Castelo de Bode Dam Surface Water - river abstraction - VALADA TEJO Aveiro University (Dr. João Pedro Nunes) SWAT hydrological model - For Climate scenarios A2 and B2: - Daily streamflow for the Zezere watershed - Daily streamflow for thetagus watersheds Main results - When compared with the period of : - Avg. Annual Streamflow to Castelo de Bode decreases 20-34% (B2 and A2) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, A2: Rio Zêzere - Castelo de Bode Periodo 22

23 Results from Nunes et al. (working drafts) First results Surface water availability Caudal anual (hm3) Preliminary results (not published - please do not cite) Surface Water Castelo de Bode Dam Aveiro University (Dr. João Pedro Nunes) SWAT hydrological model Surface Water - river abstraction - VALADA TEJO - For Climate scenarios A2 and B2: - Daily streamflow for the Zezere watershed - Daily streamflow for thetagus watersheds Main results - When compared with the period of : - Avg. Annual Streamflow will decrease 31-49% (B2 and A2) in Valada 3,000 18,000 2,500 16,000 14,000 12,000 1,500 10,000 8,000 1,000 6,000 4, , A2: Rio A2: Zêzere Rio Tejo - Castelo - Valadas de Bode Periodo 23

24 Results from Nunes et al. (working drafts) First results Surface water availability Preliminary results (not published - please do not cite) Surface Water Castelo de Bode Dam Aveiro University (Dr. João Pedro Nunes) SWAT hydrological model Surface Water - river abstraction - VALADA TEJO - For Climate scenarios A2 and B2: - Daily streamflow for the Zezere watershed - Daily streamflow for thetagus watersheds Main results - When compared with the period of : - Avg. Annual Streamflow 20-34% (B2 and A2) in Castelo de Bode - Avg. Annual Streamflow will decrease 31-49% (B2 and A2) in Valada Main conclusions - Significant decrease in the streamflow to Castelo de Bode and Valada Tejo but annual water availability is still much higher than current yearly water abstractions (162 hm3/year in Castelo de Bode and 57 hm3/year in Valada, according to EPAL data from period) 24

25 Other results Preliminary results (not published - please do not cite) - Surface water quality - Relatively low increase in primary productivity driven by an increase in P concentrations - Groundwater - Changes in piezometric levels until 2070 are not significant - After 2070 significant decreases are estimated, but a high level of associated uncertainty - Saline water intrusion - No significant salinity impact for all tested scenarios Valada Valada Figura 5 Variação longitudinal e vertical da salinidade em período de maré viva cenário C1A-Q10 (figura da esquerda, 2050, caudal 10 m 3 s -1 ) e cenário C2A-Q10 (figura da direita, 2100, caudal 10 m 3 s -1 ).

26 Main Conclusions

27 Main conclusions Definition of an adaptation estrategy Transition from a adaptation strategy driven by impacts to a strategy driven by decision-maker needs Main advantages: Stakeholder engagement in all steps of the development of the adaptation strategy Solutions more customized to the EPAL decision process Easier integration with their operational planning Main obstacles: Stakeholders interaction process is more time consuming Researchers must adapt their methods to the stakeholder decision process

28 Main conclusions First Results Preliminary results are still being improved Significant decreases in annual streamflow to surface water resources but water availability still exceeds current water abstraction needs Impact on other resources are relatively low or with a high level of uncertainty

29 Thank you!