Hydro-Québec s Response to Climate Change

Transcription

1 Hydro-Québec s Response to Climate Change Case Study: Hydro-Québec within the Ouranos Consor?um and beyond Marco Braun David Huard René Roy Resilience of Hydropower and Dams to Climate Change and Natural Disasters IHA Workshop, 13 th November 2015, London, K

2 Hydro-Québec VulnerabiliMes & OpportuniMes Climate Evolution Precipitations and wind Temperatures Energetic Inflows Extreme Events Energetic Demand Water Resources Management Security - Population Intra-Annual Load Profile Generation Planning Security - Installations Annual Load Volume Generation Optimization Generation Energetic Supply Planning New Generation Equipment Transport Environmental Considerations Design of New Generation Equipment Distribution Financial Considerations Environmental Considerations Safe Design of the Equipment Financial Considerations Environmental Considerations

3 Building Hydropower Business Resilience Adapta?on Example: Exploring Changes in Inflows

4 Hydrological ProjecMons since 2005 LaGrande-2: Evolution of Results of Mean Annuel Flow Changes in 2050 HSAMI Hydrological Model with Perturbation Delta Method (PDM) Number of projections Mean Change Standard Deviation of Changes Number of Projections 10,6 6,4 10,2 5,6 12,7 5,9 14,1 7,8 11,4 8, Mean & standard deviation of changes (%)

5 ProjecMon Stability for Doubling CO 2 Maslin & AusMn, Nature (2012)

6 Analysis of change in mean runoff 1. Map of mean change 2. Map of consensus between scenarios Peu de change

7 Building Hydropower Business Resilience Adapta?on Example: Energy Demand Forecas?ng

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9 From knowledge about climate to adapmng to its changes Adapta?on Example: Cost Benefits of Adapta?on

10 Is it worth to adapt? Reference Case Climate EvoluMon Climate EvoluMon + adapted operamng rules Climate EvoluMon + adapted operamng rules + adapted configuramon Current Climate Projected Climate Projected Climate Projected Climate Current hydrology Projected hydrology Projected hydrology Projected hydrology IniMal OperaMng rules IniMal OperaMng rules Adapted Operating rules Adapted Operating rules IniMal Physical configuramon IniMal Physical configuramon IniMal Physical configuramon Adapted Physical configuration Performance 1 Performance 2 Performance 3 Performance 4

11 Benefits of AdaptaMng OperaMon Rules Annual Hydroelectric Generation Chute-des-Passes 2050 Hydroelectric GeneraMon (propormon of the control period) Without Adapta?on Genera?on æ -1 à -14 % With Adapta?on Genera?on ä +1 à +15 % cp ü Source : Minville, M. (Ph.D. Thesis, 2008)

12 Building Hydropower Business Resilience Ongoing Energy Program Projects within the Ouranos Consor?um

13 Probable Maximum floods EsMmate future Probable Maximum PrecipitaMon and Probable Maximum Floods using regional climate model simulamons Done in collaboramon with engineers from umlimes Propose potenmal adaptamon opmons Budget: $480,000

14 Freezing rain assessment TesMng two different avenues to simulate/ diagnoze freezing rain events from CRCM5; Trying to answer the quesmon: does climate change have an impact on likelihood of freezing rain occurrence and magnitude?

15 Decision-making Include climate change in cost-benefit analyses of energy investments Minimize regret of decisions given an uncertain future Build decision-aiding tool to compare performance under user-defined hypotheses about climate change, electricity prices and discount rates. Budget: $360,000

16 AdaptaMon case studies IdenMfy real-world climate adaptamon acmons taken by energy umlimes worldwide (200+); Select the most relevant to the Canadian energy sector (40); Pick those most interesmng to professionals through survey (12); Document acmons and distribute informamon to the energy sector. Budget: $240,000

17 Conclusions Hydro-Québec is realizing its climate impact assessment studies within the Ouranos ConsorMum. Studies address short and long term changes to inflows (variability vs CC signal), risks from extreme events and impacts on energy demand. Robust Decision making in the wake of inherent uncertainty of climate projecmons is becoming a focus. Established risk management approaches can oken be adapted to the new normal. Quality Climate Services and reliable data along with collaboramons in a consormum are key to Hydro-Québec to be a leader of climate change adaptamon. It is a long process perseverance has been an important trait for Climate knowledge development and transfer Building Confidence in climate simulamon tools, climate scenarios and their providers

18 Thank you! Montréal, Québec, Canada

19 Building Hydropower Business Resilience About Ouranos

20 What is Ouranos? RTA HQ Regional climate modeling Climate scenarios and services Climate impacts and adaptamon studies MH OPG Ouranos CEHQ Gov About 400 collaborators Over 100 projects completed since 2002 Partners concerned with hydropower and dam safety

21 What is Ouranos? RTA HQ Regional climate modeling Climate scenarios and services Climate impacts and adaptamon studies MH OPG Ouranos CEHQ Gov

22 What is Ouranos? RTA HQ Regional climate modeling Climate scenarios and services Climate impacts and adaptamon studies MH OPG Ouranos CEHQ Gov needs & ques?ons models, data, tools, services and answers Climate modelling & scien?fic community Managers and decision makers

23 Ouranos Members A consor?um formed by14 Members (since 2001) 5 affiliated members (since 2007) 32 employees + 35 contributed collaborators researchers/professionals collabora?ng Mission AQIRE + DEVELOP relevant climatological knowledge INFORM + ADVISE decision-makers and stakeholders