NUCLEAR ENERGY PERSPECTIVE IN INDONESIA

Transcription

1 NUCLEAR ENERGY PERSPECTIVE IN INDONESIA Paper Presented at The 8 th Nuclear Energy Symposium Tokyo, March 2004 National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN)

2 INTRODUCTION

3 THE ARCHIPELAGO OF INDONESIA Malaysia The Philippines Australia

4 ENERGY PICTURE Diminishing resource vs demand increase Resources and users are far away in different islands Uneven distribution of population, high rate of population growth Low energy consumption per capita, lowest in Asean, Indonesia still expects revenue from oil and gas sale Indonesia to prepare long term, sustainable development Environmental issue resulted from fossil fuel burning

5 GDP PER CAPITA VS ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA 3,500 3,000 Malaysia GDP/cap (US$95) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Indonesia India Vietnam Thailand Indonesia (1997) including autoproducers Philippines China Pakistan ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 kwh/cap

6 GRAND ENERGY STRATEGY Optimizing energy supply, adopting energy mix policy Optimizing the development of energy resources Optimizing the energy allocation for industry feed material that produce value added Optimizing the energy allocation for export to optimize the foreign exchange revenue

7 CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT AND PARLIAMENT ATTITUDE TO NUCLEAR ENERGY Both Government and Parliament consider the possible utilization of nuclear energy to help solve the energy problem in form of energy mix scenario Both Government and Parliament recognize that nuclear energy is proven to environmentally friendly and able to provide support to long term sustainable development The objective of adopting nuclear energy is to secure the the supply of electrical energy, conserve strategic oil and gas, and protect the environment

8 FUTURE ENERGY BUSINESS Energy is important to develop economy and prosperity The current energy consumption per capita is still very low Population still grows, esp. in rural areas The current average citizen s access to electrical energy is still low All clearly indicate the future high energy growth rate in Indonesia

9 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY Securing continuity of energy supply for domestic use at price affordable to public Enhancing the life quality of public Stimulating economic growth Reserving adequate supply of oil and gas for export, thus yielding in higher foreign exchange revenue

10 ENERGY POLICY MEASURES Diversification to maximize and economize the energy supply, curb excessive hydrocarbon resource use, reduce the dependence on few types of fuel, and ultimately replace it with other available fuel resource Intensification to increase and expand exploration Conservation to economize energy production and use Energy pricing to formulate energy price based on its economic value by taking into account environmental cost Use of clean energy technology to support environment protection toward sustainable development

11 CURRENT SITUATION OF ENERGY SECTOR

12 HYDROCARBON FUEL USE DILEMMA Domestic need As fuel Electricity genetion Social function Hydrocarbon resource Feed mat l Commercial function Energy for export Foreign exchange revenue Industry product for export

13 NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN Population growth Year 2000 : 204 million Year 2025 : 250 million Economy growth Year 2000 : 398 Trillion Rups Year 2025 : 1660 Trillion Rups Life Quality Improvement Primary Energ Supply (2 folds) Year 2000 : PJ Year 2025 : PJ Electrical Energy Supply (3.5 folds) Year 2000 : 29 GWe Year 2025 : 100 GWe Environmental Issues - Global warming - Air pollution - Acid rains - Health CHOOSE ENERGY OPTIONS OPTIMALLY, WISELY ENVIRONMENT INFRASTRUCTURE ENERGY RESOURCES SOCIO-CULTURAL GEOPOLITICS ECONOMY FOSSIL FUEL NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY OIL COAL GAS ENERGY RELLYING ON NATURE NUCLEAR HYDRO & MICROHYDRO SOLAR, WIND, BIOMASS, GEOTERMAL ENERGY RELLYING ON TECHNOLOGY From: Comprehensive Assessment of Different Energy Source for Electricity Generation in Indonesia, 2002.

14 WORLD GEOTHERMAL YR MW EUROPE YR MW ASIA NORTH AMERICA YR MW YR MW AFRICA INDONESIA YR MW WORLD ,055 9, ,093 Prospects Developed Fields YR MW AUSTRALIA / NZ LATIN AMERICA YR MW Map of the world showing installed and forecasted geothermal capacity in 1997, in 2002 and In 2007, because of its large resource base, Indonesia could have approximately 20% of the world s installed capacity

15 TOTAL FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTION (PJ) PJ PJ = = 175, BOE BOE Coal Oil Gas

16 TOTAL FINAL ENERGY DEMAND Years Manufacturing Agriculture, Construction and Mining Transportation Household Services Grand total

17 CRITICAL ENERGY ISSUES

18 CURRENT ISSUES FOSSIL FUEL DOMESTIC USE VERSUS FOREIGN EXCHANGE REVENUE RAPID DEPLETION OF FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES, POOR DISCOVERY RATE OF NEW RESERVES WHICH SOON CHANGES THE STATUS OF OIL EXPORTING TO IMPORTING COUNTRY PRESSURE TO REDUCE ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (CONTRIBUTED BY FOSSIL BURNING) BETTER LOOK AT THE NUCLEAR ENERGY, WITH GOOD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

19 CUMMULATIVE ENERGY TRADE, PJ 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 PJ -1,000-2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000-6,000 Coal Oil Gas -7,

20 ANNUAL ENERGY EXPORT-IMPORT (PJ) PJ = BOE PJ = BOE Coal Oil Gas

21 NUCLEAR ENERGY OPTION

22 FACTS The economic crisis contributes to the drop of previous plan to erect of NPP. Recently government reiterates its recognition of nuclear energy as one of the options to developing and observing energy mix in. There are still many to be prepared to realize the NPP (technology, energy policy, legislation regulations, financing scheme, private sector role, public acceptance and environment)

23 COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN INDONESIA (CADES) PURPOSE: TO SUPPORT DECISION MAKERS INVOLVING INTERDISCIPLINARY EXPERTS IN COOPERATION WITH IAEA TO PROVIDE CLEAR PICTURE OF ENERGY DEMAND NEEDED TO SUPPORT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TO PROVIDE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY FOR LONG PERION OF TIME

24 CADES (continued) COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN INDONESIA (CADES) TO FIND BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR THE WHOLE TERRITORY OF R.I. CONSTITUTES THE BASIS FOR LONG TERM ENERGY PLANNING (TILL 2025) TO VALIDATE THE ENERGY MIX POLICY

25 WASTES FROM POWER PLANTS AND ITS FUEL PREPARATION Million tonnes per GWe yearly SOx & NOx Ash/PM10 Gas sweetening Radioactive (HLW) Toxic materials Coal Oil Natural Wood Nuclear Solar gas PV Source: IAEA, 1997

26 IMPORTANT RESULTS FROM CADES FEASIBLE INTRODUCTION OF NPP TO THE NATIONAL GRID FOR JAVA-BALI IN 2016 A POSSIBLE EARLIER INTRODUCTION WHEN NEW, SMALL REACTORS PROVE TO OPERATE

27 ENERGY MIX SITUATI0N, PJ PJ = 175,074 BOE 1 PJ = BOE Coal Oil Gas Renewable Nuclear

28 ENERGY MIX SITUATI0N, Advanced type of NPP, a total of 6.08 GWe in 2025 from nuclear The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. biomass geothermal hydro small NPP TWh med NPP large NPP gas diesel f-oil coal

29 FINAL ENERGY DEMAND (by fuel) 9,000 8,000 7,000 PJ 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Non-commercial Feedstock Motor fuel Fossil substitutable Electricity

30 MILESTONES OF FIRST NPP CONSTRUCTION Peraturan Perizinan selesai OL PJ Pre-FS Government decision URD-BIS Bidding? Licensing Licensing Document Construction Test Site data collect. & Evaluation PSAR Operation "CA"- completion "Socialization "Support to Licensing Nego Contract? 1st NPP Utility Identification

31 PREPARATION TOWARD NPP OPERATION

32 ROADMAPS TO FOLLOW INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENING INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION PUBLIC EDUCATION HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT COMPREHENSIVE RE-ASSESSMENT FINDING VIABLE FINANCING SCHEME RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN VARIOUS FIELDS ETC.

33 STATUS OF INTERNATIONAL TREATIES AND CONVENTION IN NUCLEAR ENERGY No. INTERNATIONAL TREATIES AND AGREEMENTS STATUS 1. Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - Safeguard Agreement with IAEA - Additional Protocol to Safeguards Ratified; Act No. 8 Th Signed, already in force Signed, already in force 2. Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material Ratified; Pres. Decree No. 49/ Convention on Early Notification of A Nuclear Accident Ratified; Pres. Decree No. 81/ Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency Ratified; Pres. Decree No. 82/ Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Ratified; Act No. 9/ Convention on Nuclear Safety Ratified; Pres.Decree No.106/ Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) On process to be retified 8. Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management Signed, not in force 9. Protocol to Amend the Vienna Convention Signed, not in force 10. Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage Signed, not in force 11. Bilateral cooperation and supply agreement(s) Signed, in force

34 FUEL CYCLE BEING REVIEWED LWR Uranium Saving Spent LWR Fuel Natural Uranium On-site Storage CANDU AFR Storage DUPIC Fuel Fab Spent CANDU/DUPIC Fuel Permanent Disposal No Disposal DUPIC PWR once-through CANDU once-through On-site Storage Permanent Disposal Less Disposal * DUPIC : Direct use of spent PWR fuel in CANDU reactors termed in 1991 joint research meeting among KAERI, AECL & US DOS

35 CONCLUSIONS 1. With the burden to provide prosperity to more than 220 million people, raising them from lowest electrical energy consumption in Asean region due to limited energy resource and access to electrical energy into a better consumption and access, Indonesia has to search for new and renewable energy resources. Owing to its non-polluting, environmentally friendly nature and cheap electrical energy yield, the nuclear energy has been considered officially as options to share in the future energy mix scenario.

36 CONCLUSIONS, continued 2. Based on recent study the first nuclear power plants are to be introduced in 2016 at the Muria Peninsula, Central Java which will be added to the national grid existing in Java and Bali. 3. There are still many things to be accomplished, namely the development of infrastructure, strengthening international cooperation, public education, etc. 4. In essence the major hurdles to realizing nuclear energy generation in Indonesia are in the form two things, namely the public acceptance and the viable financing scheme.

37 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION