Hydrothermal Transition: Why nuclear in Brazil?

Transcription

1 Tokio, April 13th 2015 Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Hydrothermal Transition: Why nuclear in Brazil?

2 There is a Brazil that many people know Amazon forest Football Carnival Coffee It keeps being successful, but there is still more to know 2

3 and another Brazil that you must know Innovation, technology, competitiveness and productivity 3

4 including the Nuclear Brazilian Industry Mining & Milling Conversion Enrichment UO2 powder Pellets Fuel Elements Power Generation A synergic mix of: large uranium reserves fuel cycle technology PWR technology Non-proliferation 4

5 BRAZIL GENERAL DATA National Interconnected System Population 192 million 5th Surface 8.5 million km2 5th GDP US$ 1.98 trillion 8th GDP/capta US$ 10,300/inh 77th HDI th Electric installed capacity electricity production/year electricity consumption/capta GW 9th 450 TWh 10th 2,400 kwh/inh 90th 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/2015 5

6 HDI X ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BRAZIL: 90 th place BRAZIL: 69 th place Fonte: Lighting the way, InterAcademy Council, th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/2015 6

7 HDI X ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION Gross Electric Generation Consumption per capita 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/2015 7

8 FORECASTS 2020 Population and GDP per capita 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/2015 8

9 Billion FORECASTS 2020 Energy and electricity consumption 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/2015 9

10 FORECASTS 2020 Energy and electricity consumption 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

11 ENERGY SUPPLY MATRIX WORLD x BRAZIL (%) th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

12 ENERGY SUPPLY MATRIX WORLD x BRAZIL (%) ENERGY SECTOR CARBON EMISSIONS (*) SOME COUNTRIES AND REGIONS (tco2/toe) 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

13 ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MATRIX WORLD x BRAZIL (%) th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

14 HYDROPOWER REQUIRES SYSTEM INTEGRATION HAVING CONTINENTAL DIMENSIONS EQUIVALENT TO EUROPE km Manaus Fortaleza Recife Brasília Belo Horizonte Salvador Itaipu Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Porto Alegre Angra NPPs 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

15 MW ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION IN THE 90 s NEED FOR THERMAL REGULATION Storage in GW mean Installed Hydropower installed hydro capacity increasing Reservoir capacity but without a proportional increase in the water stock 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

16 GW month ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION NEED FOR THERMAL REGULATION % water storage root cause of 2001 supply crisis % % Water stock CRISIS River flow 60% 50% 40% 30% 40 20% 20 10% 0 0% jan/99 jan/00 jan/01 jan/02 jan/03 Generated Water stock River flow Generated 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

17 ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION Hydro Thermal (fossile) Thermal (nuclear) Wind HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

18 ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION MONTHLY MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM THERMAL POWER GENERATION THERMAL MIN THERMAL MAX 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

19 ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION the expansion of a large interconnected power system, with significant predominance of hydro renewable primary source now requires an increasing thermal contribution, by gradual exhaustion of the economic and environmentally feasible hydro potential and / or loss of autoregulation capacity due to lower water storage capacity in reservoirs in relation to the system load growth. 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

20 ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION NEED FOR THERMAL REGULATION RELATIONSHIP RESERVOIR CAPACITY / TOTAL CHARGE THERMAL GENERATION Mainly due to charge reduction (and an increase thermal generation) 2001 S U P P L Y C R I S E 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

21 ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION DAM CULTURE CHANGE small reservoirs to avoid flooding large surfaces 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

22 ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION DAM CULTURE CHANGE This tendency will be amplificated by new projects in Amazon Bassin Current average hydro capacity factor: 55% Future average Amazon hydro capacity factor: 20-25% Project AHE MADEIRA MW Project AHE BELO MONTE MW 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

23 ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION IN THE 90 s NEED FOR THERMAL REGULATION Gás 6,08% Coal 1,49% Oil 1,72% Biomass 1,08% Wind 0,62% Nuclear 3,11% more nuclear could help me! Hydro 85,90% 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

24 ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION IS NOT NEW ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN CANADA ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN BRAZIL The evolution of the Canadian electrical system in 50 years holds many similarities with the situation of the Brazilian electrical system in last 15 years. 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

25 ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION BRAZILIAN TRANSITION IS NEW Hydro Share 72% 69% 65/78% 52/62% 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

26 ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION BRAZILIAN TRANSITION IS NEW HYDRO FOSSILE Gas Coal Oil FISSILE Nuclear OTHER RENEWABLES Biomass Wind Solar 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

27 PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE NUCLEAR IN BRAZIL NEGATIVE OPPINION POSITIVE OPPINION Costa Verde Rio de Janeiro Other state capitals POSITIVE OPPINION 55,6% 46,3% 32,4% NEGATIVE OPPINION 45,4% 53,7% 67,6% 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

28 BRAZILIAN NUCLEAR INDUSTRY MONOPOLY ESTABLISHED BY CONSTITUTION 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

29 ELETROBRAS 10th. WORLD UTILITY Oil and Gas = 7% Coal = 1% Nuclear = 5% 39,434 MW in operation 37% of Brazil Installed Capacity km of transmission lines 56% of Brazil total transmission Total Own 8,137 10,618 10,203 7,000 2, ,455 Partnerships Total 9,105 10,618 10,214 7,000 2, ,434 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

30 MISSION WORKING ON 3 TIME FRAMES 1. TODAY : Operation & Maintenance Angra 1 :1985 (Westinghouse PWR 657 MW) Angra 2: 2001 (Siemens-KWU PWR 1350 MW) 2. TOMORROW: Engineering, Procurement, Construction & Commissioning Angra 3: 2015 (AREVA NP PWR 1405 MW) 3. FUTURE: Research & Development 4 to 8 New NPP: (national configuration PWR concept) 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

31 ADMIRAL ÁLVARO ALBERTO NUCLEAR POWER STATION Belo Horizonte 350km LOCATED NEAR FROM THE 3 BRAZILIAN MAIN METROPOLITAN REGIONS São Paulo 220km Angra dos Reis Rio de Janeiro 130km 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

32 ADMIRAL ÁLVARO ALBERTO NUCLEAR POWER STATION ANGRA 2 PWR Power: MW Technology: Siemens/KWU Operation start: Janeiro/2001 ANGRA 1 PWR Power: 657 MW Technology: Westinghouse Operation start: Janeiro/ th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

33 ANGRA 1 AND ANGRA 2 OPERATION GENERATION TILL 2012: MWh GENERATION RECORD 2012: 16,1 TWh* * Itaipu record: 94 TWh 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

34 ANGRA 1 AND ANGRA 2 OPERATION EAF Angra 1&2: 4th EAF 2012 Angra 1&2: 2nd EAF 2011 Angra 1&2: 2nd EAF 2010 Angra 1&2: 15th 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

35 ANGRA 3 CONSTRUCTION 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

36 ANGRA 3 CONSTRUCTION 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

37 NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN 2030 EPRI SITTING CRITERIA GEOPROCESSING TOOLS 1) Northeast MW 2) Southeast MW STARTING OPERATION: NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS OF BRASIL 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

38 Thermal based Electric systems ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION NUCLEAR CAPACITY INSTALLED High Scenario Low Scenario Adicional MW Adicional MW BRASIL { RÚSSIA ÍNDIA CHINA th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

39 BRAZILIAN NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

40 NUCLEAR EXPANSION IN BRAZIL SÃO FRANCISCO RIVER NUCLEAR POWER STATION Current Activities Plant Parameter Envelope RFIs to suppliers Early Site Permit Report Brazilian Utility Requirements URD/EUR model Business Model Private participation Economic and Financial Feasibility studies Social and Economic Impact studies 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

41 NUCLEAR EXPANSION IN BRAZIL SÃO FRANCISCO RIVER NUCLEAR POWER STATION INSPIRED ON TVA ROADMAP A ROUTE TO DEVELOPMENT 41st 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/15/ /13/

42 BUILDING NEW NUCLEAR THE CHALLENGES AHEAD Plans for new build in Brazil Consequence of failing to deliver new build Will the new nuclear programme be delivered? Lessons from other countries Public attitudes Government leadership Public opinion at the national level Local level opinion Fukushima Building public support Trust, understanding of risk, and risk governance Community benefit Business Model Market insertion (commercialization) Ownership of nuclear power stations State x Private National x Foreigner Financing new nuclear Where will the money come from? Barriers to raising finance Alternative approaches Supply chain and skills Potential for bottlenecks and delays Opportunities for Brazilian businesses Skills PWR Technology Selection In operation x construction x design FOAK x NOAK Passive x Active Safety 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

43 BRAZILIAN URANIUM RESOURCES ONE OF THE MAIN RESERVES IN THE WORLD Prospected area: only 30% of national territory up to 100 meters deep 6th. WORLD RESERVE 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

44 BRAZILIAN URANIUM RESOURCES ONE OF THE MAIN RESERVES IN THE WORLD After prospected all the national territory, probably Brazil should be among the 2 MAJOR WORLD RESERVES Pré-cambrian soils Brasil km2 Austrália km2 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

45 NUCLEAR FUEL INDUSTRY IN BRAZIL URANIUM + TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES USEXA - NAVY (CONSTRUCTION) INB LEI and USIDE - NAVY (OPERATION) CoNVERSION (PROJECT) INB URANIUM MINNING AND MILLING LAGOA REAL (OPERATION) One of the few countries having both: 1. large uranium reserves 2. full technological capability for local fuel production ELETRONUCLEAR INB ENRICHMENT RESENDE (CONSTRUCTION) INB LABGENE NAVY (CONSTRUCTION) ANGRA 1/2/3 PWR FUEL FABRICATION RESENDE (OPERATION) LABMAT and LADICON NAVY (OPERATION) 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

46 NUCLEAR FUEL INDUSTRY IN BRAZIL URANIUM + TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

47 RESEARCH REACTORS IN BRAZIL IEA-R1m CNEN/IPEN São Paulo IPEN/MB-01 São Paulo TRIGA CNEN/CDTN Belo Horizonte Argonauta CNEN/IEN Rio de Janeiro 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

48 RESEARCH REACTORS IN BRAZIL 41st JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/15/

49 LOW AND MEDIUM LEVEL WASTE FINAL DISPOSAL ABADIA DE GOIÁS REPOSITORY 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

50 SPENT FUEL LONG TERM STORAGE BRAZILIAN SOLUTION External pool (2020) Long Term Interim Storage (2035) Designed for 500 years 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

51 WHY NUCLEAR IN BRAZIL? HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION HYDRO FOSSILE Gas Coal Oil FISSILE Nuclear OTHER RENEWABLES Biomass Wind Solar 48th JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/13/

52 Amazon forest Football Carnival Coffee Innovation, technology, competitiveness and productivity Mining Conversion Enrichment UO2 powder Pellets Fuel Elements Generation 41st JAIF Annual Conference Leonam dos Santos Guimarães Tokio, 04/15/