Designing Climate Resilient Transportation Infrastructure

Transcription

1 Designing Climate Resilient Transportation Infrastructure Dirk Nyland, P.Eng., IRP, Chief Engineer, BCMoTI FBC Workshop Resilient Infrastructure in a Changing Climate 15 March 2017

2 Climate Change Future climate change and extreme event considerations Significant impacts even with CO2 emission mitigation Adaptation involves preparing for economic, social and environmental impacts of climate change

3 Climate Change There has been a substantial increase in the intensity of heavy- precipitation* events over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere due to greenhouse gases (*Storms with over 100 millimetres of precipitation in 24 hours) Source: Zwiers, Nature, 2011 Holberg Road Vancouver Island Sept 2010 Hagensborg (Bella Coola Sept 2010)

4 Precipitation & Infrastructure Dawson Creek 2016 Commotion Creek Hwy Peace Region Flooding 2016

5 Projected BC Precipitation 2050s Precipitation Winter: up to 20% wetter throughout BC Summer: North from 10% drier to 10% wetter South up to 15% drier Increase in precipitation intensity

6 Projected BC Temperature 2050s Temperature Mean annual temperature 1 to 4 C warming Increase in occurrence of warm extremes Increase temperature à increase water vapour Mean Annual Temperature BC 2080s Mean Annual Temperature BC 6

7 Motivation to Adapt Considering character, magnitude and rate of change of climate and extreme weather events Impact potential on design, operation & maintenance Adapt engineering design practices for resilient, reliable, efficient and effective transportation infrastructure Bitter Creek Bridge Stewart BC Sept 2011 Cost of Infrastructure Design Construction Maintenance (resilience = lower maintenance) 7

8 BCMoTI Climate Vulnerability Assessment Civil Engineering tool to assess climate vulnerability and extreme weather events on infrastructure BCMoTI involved in Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Engineering Protocol Yellowhead Coquihalla 8

9 PIEVC Tool Identify infrastructure vulnerability- risk to extreme weather and climate change to develop resiliency in design Multi- disciplinary, multi- stakeholder Local knowledge and experience 9

10 PIEVC - Process PIEVC PROCESS 10

11 Triple Bottom Line Maintaining the economic and social quality of life while limiting environmental impacts to the carrying capacity of nature 11

12 Transportation Bottom Line Economic Support cost- efficient goods and services delivery Social Accessible, safe, and secure transportation Environment Sustainable development support solutions compatible with natural environment 12

13 Economic Bottom- Line (Support efficient delivery of good and services) Loss of Highway systems such as Trans- Canada Highway (TCH) have Economic and Social costs Cost of avalanche closing TCH west of Revelstoke 1 (12 closures/yr 3hr duration in 2010) vehicles delayed = 11,200 time cost = $337,000 Supply chain disruptions, Hwy maintenance and construction costs Fuel consumption costs, Greenhouse Gas emissions costs 13

14 Social Bottom- Line (Provide reliable transportation for society) Other considerations: Minimize impacts to health care & school access Promote liveable communities and sustainable land use community integration, etc. 14

15 Environmental Bottom- Line (Reduce impacts on environment and ecosystems) Consider wildlife in designing infrastructure Climate change could affect distribution of species (plants, animals & fish) Recycle materials 15

16 Data Inputs for Vulnerability Assessment Infrastructure Components Infrastructure Age Availability of Infrastructure Data Geotechnical Indicators Variety of Terrain Traffic Volumes Strategic Importance of Route Occurrence of Extreme Environmental Events Historic Weather Data Available Current Weather Data Available Expected Climatic Change Temperature Expected Climatic Change Precipitation Climatic Regions Sea Level Rise 16

17 BC Assessment Sites 2010 Coquihalla Highway 2011 Yellowhead Highway Two sites have different geographic and climatic conditions Insights gained from two locations Coquihalla Yellowhead 17

18 Coquihalla & Yellowhead Highway Analysis The BC section of the Yellowhead Highway runs from Alberta to the Pacific Ocean assigned Hwy 16 in The study section is on the Fraser Plateau in central BC The Hope to Merritt section of the Coquihalla Highway, was constructed between 1982 and 1986 through mountainous terrain bordered by the Fraser Delta to the West and the Cascade Mountain Range to the East 18

19 Coquihalla Highway Situated in south western British Columbia, the Coquihalla Highway is a key route connecting the Okanagan Valley and the West Coast PHASE I 109 km from Hope to Merritt completed 1986 (study area is km in length) The Coquihalla Highway is a four- lane provincial roadway Posted speed is 120 kph, maximum grade of 8% with climbing lanes and crawling lanes Road elevation change of approximately 900 m Coquihalla Coquihalla Coquihalla Zopkios Brake Check 19

20 Yellowhead Highway Situated in central British Columbia, the Yellowhead Highway runs west through the Cariboo Mountains to Prince George, through the Fraser Plateau, the Bulkley River Valley and the Skeena River Valley, before reaching the west coast at Prince Rupert Assigned Hwy 16 in 1942, built up 1950s 70s: study section (100km) is located on inland plateau in central BC Mostly two- lane with very minor road elevation change across the study region Pacific weather systems somewhat attenuated by inland location Yellowhead Yellowhead 20

21 Infrastructure Components Surface asphalt Bridges Ditches Catch basins Culverts Third- party utilities Dawson Creek 2016 Coquihalla Hwy 21

22 Climate Projections design for extremes Extreme rainfall in one or more days (e.g. >76 mm/24 hrs) Atmospheric River- Pineapple Express (e.g. >150 mm/ 24 hrs) High Temperature (e.g. # day over 30 C) Temperature variability (e.g. freeze- thaw) Sea level rise Hwy 8 th St. June 2016 Hwy 97 June 2016

23 Projecting Climate Parameters Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC at Uvic) Example model assumptions: Independently operating, self- reliant nations Continuously increasing population Regionally oriented economic development Climate Variability & Climate Change Climate Variability Short term : (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO) Baseline Slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income 23 Baseline Climate Oscillations Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO) Climate Change Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: (centuries)

24 Coquihalla Climate Projections (2050) Warming with Increasing hot extremes Decreasing periods of hard frost Reduction in the range of temperatures; and An increase in periods of heavy precipitation Coquihalla Coquihalla 24

25 Yellowhead Climate Projections (2050, 2100) warmer conditions - decreasing strong frost periods (very likely) - increasing hot extremes (very likely) - decreasing diurnal temperature range (very likely) wetter conditions - total precipitation increasing (likely) - heavier and more sustained precipitation (likely) more extreme conditions - moderate (10y) to extreme (>100y) events increasing Yellowhead 25

26 PIEVC VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS PIEVC Vulnerability Analysis (Coquihalla and Yellowhead) (COQUIHAL LA AND YELLOWHE (mm/24hrs) AD) Design Standard Total Load Total Capacity Vulnerability Return period Max- min temp Road Surfaces & 24- hrs Duration Extreme Precipitation (mm/24hrs) 1:5 L T C T V R+ = L T /C T Coquihalla 2050s Median & Roadway Drainage Appliances & 24- hrs Duration Extreme Precipitation (mm/24hrs) 1:10 to 1:25 (use 1:25) Coquihalla 2050s Catch Basins & 24- hrs Duration Extreme Precipitation Coquihalla (Storm Sewers) 2050s 1:10 to 1:25 (use 1:25) Yellowhead (Stormwater Inlets) 2050s 1: Yellowhead (Stormwater Inlets) 2010s 1: Culverts < 3 m & 24- hour Duration Extreme Precipitation (mm/ 24hrs) Yellowhead 2050s Yellowhead 2100s Concrete Bridges & Extreme High Temperature ( o C) Max- min temp Concrete Bridges & Extreme Low Temperature ( o C) ( Forecast event 1:50) 26 Yellowhead 2050s :100 Max- min temp ( Forecast event 1:50) Yellowhead 2050s Yellowhead 2100s

27 Additional BC Highway Study Locations Stewart Pine Pass Yellowhead (Previous Study) Bella Coola Coquihalla (Previous Study) 27

28 Past and Projected Precipitation (Model) Location Indicator Past ( ) from Model Future ( ) from Model % Change Annual mm Stewart 25Yr mm/24hr Annual mm Bella Coola 25Yr mm/24hr Annual mm Pine Pass 25Yr mm/24hr

29 Precipitation Projections (PCIC Data) Bella Coola, BC Indicator Past ( ) Future ( ) Change Annual Total 673 mm 744 mm 11% 5- Day Precip. 56 mm 67 mm 20% One day/10- year event 36 mm 47 mm 31% One day/25- year event 44 mm 60 mm 36% 29

30 Engineering Analysis 200- Year Flow by Location (Model Averages*) Model Output Location Average Change Relative to Historic year Hourly Peak Flow (m 3 /s) (% Change to Historic) Bitter Creek (Stewart) 34 Medby Creek (Bella Coola) 35 Fisher Creek (Pine Pass)

31 Vulnerability Assessment Conclusions Based on risk assessments, the study segments of BC Highways are generally resilient to climate change Extreme precipitation events could overload drainage infrastructure Gaps include affects on highway components from climate extremes, rain on snow, fog & wind, avalanche, landslides, sea level rise, etc. Bella Coola Yellowhead (Sept 2010) Hwy Bitter Creek Bridge Stewart (Sept 2011) 31

32 Design Implications Design depends on structural components design life & site pavement years, culverts 75 years, bridges years Design for potentially higher temperatures and precipitation in many parts of the province Review temperature and precipitation sensitive components Climate and product specification changes (e.g. pavement grades) Fur Thief Creek Culvert Pine Pass Fisher Creek Bridge Pine Pass (June- July 2011) 32

33 Trash rack solution - Flying V

34 Lessons Learned Develop awareness of climate change/extreme weather & implications (primarily water related events) Include climate adaptation in organizational practice Use multidisciplinary teams for projects Use qualified professionals with local knowledge (climate, meteorological, hydrotechnical) Adaptation education for professionals, consultants, staff & students Fisher Creek Pine Pass Bitter Creek Bridge Stewart (Sept 2011) 34

35 Best Practices Monitor data used in codes and standards Use quantitative data and/or professional judgement Apply sensitivity analysis Understand risks and uncertainties Review association guidance Bella Coola (Sept 2010) Use information from ensemble of climate models Determine best models & data to use 35

36 Climate Language Primer For climate scientists, engineers, hydrologists, facility & structure owners, etc. Understand concepts, principles and language across disciplines For risk analysis, adaptation measures, design and operations issues, etc. Location: adaptation.html

37 Technical Circular BCMoTI Technical Circular to consider climate change and extreme weather in design for hwy reliability Practical and affordable design solutions Input from ACECBC consulting engineer committee (T06-15 Climate Change and Extreme Weather Event preparedness and Resilience in Engineering Infrastructure Design) Dawson Creek June

38 George Massey Tunnel Replacement Project Agreement Climate change Section The Concessionaire shall comply with Technical Circular T- 06/15 Climate Data The Concessionaire shall determine the appropriate climate data to be used in the Design to account for anticipated climate change. The climate data used shall: be data from southwest coastal British Columbia or derived for the southwest coastal British Columbia area; consider at a minimum, temperature, rain, snow, ice, fog, hail, frost, humidity, ice accretion, wind, floods, extreme temperatures and precipitation, and storms of various intensities; and rely on climatological modelling analysis that is consistent with current climate science and relevant to the southwest coastal area of British Columbia Cont.... On next slide

39 George Massey Tunnel Replacement Project Agreement Climate change Section (Cont.) Climate Vulnerability Risk Analysis The Concessionaire shall conduct a risk analysis which assesses climate change vulnerability. The vulnerability risk assessment shall: consider at minimum, climate/design parameters related to extreme weather events involving such things as temperature, rain, snow, ice, fog, hail, frost, humidity, ice accretion, wind, floods, extreme temperatures and precipitation, storms of various intensities, and combinations of these factors; assess how these vulnerability risks are anticipated to change over the Design Life of each component of the Project Infrastructure; and assess potential impacts to Project Infrastructure components from climate change and identify a proposed action where an impact is determined to be present. Climate Change Adaptation Report The Concessionaire shall prepare and submit to the Authority s Representative, in accordance with the Review Procedure, a climate change adaptation report demonstrating the assessment completed and how the requirements of Technical Circular T- 06/15 and this article have been met.

40 T- Circular Design Criteria Sheet List Design Criteria Conclusions Documentation 40

41 Design Sheet Example 41

42 APEGBC Practice Manual 1. Request for proposals issued by the owner 2. Define the Highway infrastructure Climate Change Resilient Design project 3. Conduct Screening Level and if needed Climate change vulnerability risk assessment 4. Identify and incorporate climate adaptation options 5. Document Processes and Decisions - Highway Infrastructure Climate Change Resilient Design Report - Assurance Statement - BCMoTI Design Criteria Sheet

43 Climate Resources PCIC Climate data portal and support Plan2Adapt Downscaled climate data - projections Hydrologic model output projections Engineering specific data projections (in development) Support from climate scientists 43

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45 Climate Adaptation Resources BCMoTI Adaptation site adaptation.html APEGBC PCIC PICS Short Course insights- 101#quicktabs- climate_insights_101=1 Ouranos PIEVC Fisher Creek Hwy

46 Climate Adaptation Resources (Cont.) IPCC IDF CC Tool cc- uwo.ca/helpfaqtou FHWA (USA) climate_change/adaptation/ AASHTO (USA) 46

47 Thank you Questions 47

48 BC Historical Extreme Precipitation Events (1- Day 1- Year return event mm) BC HISTORICAL EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS (1- DAY 1- YEAR RETURN EVENT MM) 48

49 Adaptation Scenarios for the Great Bear Culvert Coquihalla Highway (5 is highest score) Performance Scores of Scenarios Under Consideration Factor Social Factors Business as Usual Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Decreased use Impact on User Safety Environmental Factors Water Quality Economic Factors Capital Costs Maintenance & Operations Costs Durability 1 5 3

50 Scenarios Results and Sensitivity Testing of the TBL Test Run Weighting Scheme Sensitivity Testing Group Social Bias Environmental Bias Economic Bias Business as Usual Scenario Scenario Rank Adaptation Scenarios for the Great Bear Culvert Coquihalla Highway Business as Usual Scenario Scenario

51 TBL Example- Great Bear Culvert Coquihalla Highway