Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability at the Port of Mobile, AL Gulf Coast Phase 2

Transcription

1 Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability at the Port of Mobile, AL Gulf Coast Phase 2 Prepared for: Scoping Workshop on Sea Ports and Climate Change March 5,

2 Context Context of Gulf Coast Phase 2 Project and Marine Facilities in Mobile, AL 1

3 CONTEXT U.S. DOT - Gulf Coast Project U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) is conducting a comprehensive multiphase study of climate change impacts in the Central Gulf Coast region Study is funded by USDOT Center for Climate Change and is managed by the Federal Highway Administration Characteristics of U.S. Gulf Coast: Dense population and complex infrastructure Critical role in imports and exports of oil, gas, and grain May be particularly susceptible to climate change over the 21st century 2

4 CONTEXT Gulf Coast Project: Phase I and II Phase I ( ) Examined the impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure at a regional scale Phase II (underway) Focused on a single Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) around Mobile, AL Goals: Evaluate which transportation infrastructure components are most critical to economic and societal function Assess the vulnerability of these components to weather events and long-term changes in climate Develop tools and to determine which systems need to be protected, and how best to protect them 3

5 Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow Temperature rise Sea-level rise Increase in heavy downpours Rapidly retreating glaciers Thawing permafrost Longer growing season Longer ice-free season in the ocean and on lakes and rivers Earlier snowmelt Changes in river flows Observed U.S. Sea-Level Changes 4

6 Flooding in Houston 5

7 Results Gulf Coast Study Highways Vulnerable to Relative Sea Level Rise Baseline (Present Day) 4 Feet of Sea Level Rise Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of U.S. DOT Data. icfi.com 6 6

8 Results Gulf Coast Study Freight Rail Lines Vulnerable to Storm Surge of 18 feet 7 Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of climate projections and Federal Railroad Administration data. 7

9 A Risk Assessment Approach to Transportation Decisions Risk Assessment Exposure Vulnerability Resilience Adaptation Response Protect Accommodate Retreat Greater Resilience 8 8

10 CONTEXT Mobile, AL Marine Facilities In 2009, Mobile was the 12 th largest port in the United States (by tons of traffic) Mobile County marine facilities handled 67.5 million short tons of cargo in 2008 Various types of cargo containers, break bulk, neo bulk, liquid bulk, and seafood Sixty-one marine facilities are located within Mobile County; 23 defined as critical 9

11 Screening for Potentially Vulnerable Assets Screening Approach and Sensitivity Matrix 10

12 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY Components of Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability IPCC Definition Nature and degree of exposure to climate variability and change Key Question To what extent is the asset exposed to climate changes? IPCC Definition Degree to which a system is affected by exposure Key Question How sensitive is each asset to climate changes? If all assets were equally exposed, which assets would experience the greatest damage? IPCC Definition Ability of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and change Key Question How well does the transportation system adjust, repair, and flexibly respond to damage? 11

13 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY GC2 Pilot Asset Screening Approach Assess Criticality All Transportation Assets All Critical Assets Assess Sensitivity Assess Exposure All Critical and Sensitive Assets All Assets that are Critical, Sensitive, and Exposed 12

14 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY: SENSITIVITY Screening for Sensitivity Mapped relationships between asset types and climate variables Identified key thresholds where damage begins to occur Wind design speeds for Mobile marine facilities range from mph 13

15 Evaluating Mobile s Current and Future Climate Climate Data Analysis 14

16 EVALUATING MOBILE S CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE Exposure to Climate Variability and Change Five primary climate variables: temperature, precipitation, streamflow, sea level rise, and storm surge Downscaled climate projection data, sea level rise and storm surge modeling, to develop plausible climate futures Projected temperature and precipitation changes in Mobile: Temperature is projected to increase over time. The number of very hot days are projected to increase dramatically by mid-century. Mobile is already one of the rainiest cities in the United States, annual average rainfall of 65 in (165.9 centimeters); total annual precipitation is not projected to change significantly in the nearterm, regardless of emission scenario. 15

17 EVALUATING MOBILE S CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE Projected Sea Level Rise in Mobile, AL Three plausible scenarios: 0.3 meters (1.0 foot) by meters (2.5 feet) by meters (6.6 feet) by 2100 Port facilities are significantly exposed to sea level rise, with 46% of the critical ports exposed under the lowest scenario, and 92% exposed under the highest scenario 16

18 EVALUATING MOBILE S CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE 75cm and 200cm SLR Scenarios 17

19 EVALUATING MOBILE S CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE Scenario-based Analysis of Storm Surge Main questions: What are the implications of a moderate hurricane striking the region under a scenario of increased sea level? What are the implications of a strike by a larger hurricane than the region has experienced in recent history? Methodology: Storm surge inundation from 11 storm scenarios was modeled using ADCIRC Scenarios used Hurricane Georges and Katrina as base storms and then adjusted certain characteristics of the storm to simulate what could happen under alternate conditions 18

20 EVALUATING MOBILE S CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE Example Storm Surge Scenarios Hurricane Katrina Natural Path Scenario Hurricane Katrina Shifted Path Scenario with Reduced Central Pressure and 0.75 meter Sea level Rise 19

21 Vulnerability Assessment of Mobile s Marine Facilities Indicators and Preliminary Results 20

22 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE S MARINE FACILITIES Vulnerability Assessment Objective: Identify the assets most likely to be vulnerable to sea level rise, storm surge, extreme heat, precipitation, and wind Method: Assets scored by indicators of vulnerability to each climate impact Assets receive multiple vulnerability scores for each variable, time period, and climate narrative Outcomes: A prioritized list of potentially vulnerable assets to facilitate selection of assets for the engineering assessment Better understanding of system-level vulnerabilities for specific modes, geographies, and climate variables Better understanding of linkages between modes 21

23 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE S MARINE FACILITIES Using Indicators to Score Vulnerability Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity are abstract concepts Formulas cannot tell us how individual assets are specifically damaged by certain weather conditions We chose indicators to represent these concepts Indicators help evaluate characteristics that could indicate an asset may or may not be vulnerable Averages (potentially weighted) of indicators drive scoring Vulnerability Exposure Adaptive Capacity Sensitivity Exposure indicators Sensitivity indicators Adaptive capacity indicators 22

24 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE S MARINE FACILITIES Example Vulnerability Indicators for Ports Exposure Temperature and precipitation - projected change in extreme events relative to the baseline (hot days, wet days) Storm surge - inundation depth Sea level rise exposed or not exposed (Y/N) Sensitivity Sensitivity of cargo to temperature and precipitation Reliance on electricity Potential for ponding during heavy rain Location within 100-year floodzone Adaptive Capacity Redundancy within and across facilities Disruption duration 23

25 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE S MARINE FACILITIES Preliminary Results: Temperature and Precipitation In the less extreme narratives, port vulnerability to temperature and precipitation is low. Damages: Low Damages: Moderate 24

26 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE S MARINE FACILITIES Vulnerability of Ports to Temperature: End-of- Century, Hotter Scenario Vulnerability Scale 25 25

27 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE S MARINE FACILITIES Vulnerability of Ports to Precipitation: EOC, Wetter Scenario Vulnerability Scale 26 26

28 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE S MARINE FACILITIES Preliminary Results: Storm Surge, Wind, and Sea Level Rise Under the most extreme sea level rise narrative (200cm), nearly all port facilities are vulnerable Ports are moderately to highly vulnerable to storm surge, even under the least extreme narrative Identified specific facilities that are most vulnerable to storm surge and sea level rise 27

29 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE S MARINE FACILITIES Preliminary Results: Storm Surge, Wind, and Sea Level Rise Damages: High Damages: Low Damages: High 28

30 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE S MARINE FACILITIES Vulnerability of Ports to Storm Surge: Katrina, Shifted, Pressure Reduced, 75cm SLR Vulnerability Scale 29

31 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE S MARINE FACILITIES Vulnerability of Ports to Sea Level Rise: 200cm Vulnerability Scale 30 30

32 Questions? 31

33 Thank you! Mike Savonis 32