FAST Tool and Exercise

Transcription

1 FAST Tool and Exercise Sustainable Energy Training Electricity Generation and Supply Challenges and Opportunities for Asia Adam Brown Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency 28 November Bangkok

2 Objective: holistic view of options Flexibility needs Flexibility resources Power demand Wind, Solar PV Tidal, Wave Heat / cooling demand Geographical & portfolio smoothing Flexible power plants Controllable VG Responsive power demand Storage across end-use sectors Trade 2

3 FAST Method

4 Running the FAST TOOL Assessing flexibility available from dispatchable power plants and interconnections (ignoring storage and demand response).

5 Dispatchable power plants How fast can it change output? How long does it take to start up and shut down? What is the minimum stable operating level?

6 Dispatchable power plants Are these plants available for balancing wind power output? Critical periods At low demand less plant is operating (so less downwards room to manoeuvre) Vice versa at peak demand

7 Dispatchable power plants Are these plants available for balancing wind power output? At low demand Likely operating state At peak demand

8 Cross-border transmission Technical Capability Availability for balancing wind

9 The transmission grid The single most important constraint on flexibility The Grid More efficient use of existing capacity (eg: dynamic linetemperature monitoring

10 System and Market Operation Integrated with neighbours Number of balancing areas Coordination of flexible resources Bilateral or exchange? Rolling forecasts of VRE output Products to encourage flexible response Trading up to time of delivery? Real-time operational reserves market

11 Assessing maximum variability VRE variability & uncertainty over 1 hour Variability Forecast error 7.5% of VRE capacity 3.5% of VRE capacity Existing variability & uncertainty Demand fluctuations Forecast error Contingencies Total requirement 7000 MW 1000 MW 800 MW 8800 MW + 11% of VRE capacity

12 VRE penetration potential FAST 1 results for sample countries Grid Market

13 FAST 2 FAST1 Analyses four time horizons, up and down Selects two fixed operational states (two load levels) Disregards system history Assumes flexibility requirements based on heuristic FAST2 Analyses arbitrarily many time horizons (lower limit time series resolution), up and down Calculates two dispatch states (maximum flexibility and merit order) for arbitrary many load levels Includes system history (one step, according to time horizon) Calculates flexibility requirement from scaling historic time series of load and VRE generation

14 FAST conclusions More flexible resources exist than commonly thought 1. Assess what you have already 2. Make more of that resource available 3. Then, consider additional needs Flexibility assessment is a proper basis for: Target setting, system planning, investment allocation FAST 2 to be completed this year

15 MW FAST Exercise one day Demand Wind Residual demand

16 Time Demand Demand ramp Wind Wind ramp Residual demand Fill in the Ramp in residual demand gaps Clue: remember complementarit y!

17 Part 1: quantify the additional wind integration potential Using your data in Table 1, identify the maximum ramp in residual demand (up or down) in any given hour during the day (Hour X) The available flexible resource in Hour X is 3000 MW (up or down). On this basis calculate the surplus flexibility during this hour Table 3 Potential sources of flexibility in Hour X MW Hydro capacity 1500 CCGT capacity 500 Interconnection to neighbours 200 Pumped hydropower storage 200 Demand-side response Given this surplus, and the maximum hourly ramp observed in installed wind power, calculate the additional wind power that could be managed

18 Part 2: Describe enabling characteristics What characteristics of grid, system and market operation will be required to ensure the flexible resources listed in Table 3 are available when needed? What other system characteristics will affect the availability of ALL flexible resources? If you had more time, how would you carry out a more comprehensive assessment (i.e. what have we not done in this exercise?)

19 The Solution

20 Solution Demand Wind Residual demand

21 Increased ramps Demand ramp Residual demand ramp

22 Calculating additional wind potential Max net load ramp Flexible resource available in Hour X So unused flexibility is? 2500 MW 3000 MW 500 MW Maximum wind ramp observed over 1 hour is? 1000 MW This is 25% of installed capacity (4000 MW). Therefore maximum wind ramp is 25% / hour 25% of what is 500? 2000 MW Therefore a total of 6000 MW wind is possible

23 How would we do this with more time? Use historic time series data over several years to identify maximum possible ramp We just looked at 1 day Factor in wind output and demand-side uncertainty Look at more than 1 time horizon We just looked at 1 hour Consider system history what state are the flexible resources in? We assumed static Consider economic effect of (additional) wind on the availability of flexible resources