Energy Efficiency Interdisciplinary opportunities for education, training and research

Transcription

1 Energy Efficiency Interdisciplinary opportunities for education, training and research Jay Sterling Gregg Technical University of Denmark European Energy Research Alliance Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of the Energy Technologies and Policies (EERA e3s) March 21, 2018

2 smartcitiesaccelerator.eu

3 Outline E3S Examples with Energy Efficiency Research UN SE4ALL modeling Malmö, Sweden Action Agenda Opportunities for Education and Training

4 What is e3s? Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of Energy Policies and Technologies EERA e3s Joint Programme (JP) Motivation: Europe has adopted ambitious energy policy objectives to achieve a low carbon world by 2050 Re-orientation away from specific technological solutions and towards system transformation. Enhanced policy advice is necessary to understand the complex interaction of a variety of socio-technical elements, such as consumer behaviour and acceptance, markets and technologies

5 EERA E3S

6 Example 1: UN SE4ALL The objectives of the SE4ALL are to achieve, by 2030: 1. Ensure universal access to modern energy services 2. Double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency from -1.3% to -2.6% annually (primary energy intensity / GDP PPP) 3. Double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix from 18% to 36%

7 CHI EEU IND FSU USA EUR CAN GBL AUS WEU ODA AFR MEX CSA JAP SKO MEA Energy Intensity Improvement Rate (EIIR) Energy Intensity = Primary Energy Consumption / GDP Average = Compound Annual Growth Rate Average EIIR (1990- Region 2010) Africa AFR -0.90% Australia AUS -1.20% Canada CAN -1.40% China CHI -4.30% Central and South America CSA -0.60% Eastern Europe EEU -2.90% Former Soviet Union FSU -1.80% India IND -2.30% Japan JAP -0.30% Middle East MEA 1.00% Mexico MEX -0.70% Other Developing Asia ODA -1.10% South Korea SKO 0.00% United States USA -1.70% Western Europe WEU -1.20% Europe EUR -1.50% Global GBL -1.30% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% -4,0% -5,0% Average EIIR ( )

8 Research Plan 1. Model global energy markets under business as usual 2. Model scenarios that meet the SE4ALL targets 3. Estimate the costs by comparing the to BAU 4. Calculate the optimal energy profiles, and technology pathways 5.??? 6. Heroically transform the world into a energy efficient utopia

9 ETSAP-TIAM Energy Technology System Analysis Program TIMES Integrated Assessment Model ETSAP-TIAM Regions AFR Africa AUS Australia & NZ CAN Canada CHI China CSA Central and South America EEU Eastern Europe FSU Former Soviet Union IND India JPN Japan MEA Middle East MEX Mexico ODA Other Developing Asia SKO South Korea USA United States WEU Western Europe Economic Optimization Energy Model

10 MJ/USD 2005 Business as Usual Regional Energy Intensity Pathways AFR AUS CAN CHI CSA EEU FSU IND JPN MEA MEX ODA SKO USA WEU Global The modeled economic optimal solution nearly achieves the SE4ALL objectives under BAU???

11 PESTLEG Barriers to EE Barrier Examples Barrier Examples Political Financial priority Value priority Infrastructure lock-in Political risk High initial cost Funding possibilities Technological Enabling infrastructure Technologies involved Rate of return Implementation quality Payback period Economic Incentive for owner(s)/user(s) Legal Data access Uncertainty Permitting procedure Transparency of funding possibilities Actors involved in decision Environmental Environmental side-effects Knowledge Social Resources Risk averse behavior Opposition/resistance Governance Procurement process clarity Monitoring of quality

12 Region Average Annual EIIR, (%) Historic Max EIIR, (5-year rolling average) (%) Average Annual EIIR to achieve SE4ALL EE objective (%) Average Annual EIIR to achieve all SE4ALL objectives (%) Greater reduction than ( ) historic average? Greater than historic max reduction (5-year rolling average)? AFR YES YES AUS Examples YES YES CAN YES NO CHI NO NO CSA YES YES EEU YES NO FSU YES NO IND YES NO JPN YES equal MEA YES YES MEX YES YES ODA YES YES SKO YES NO USA YES YES WEU YES equal

13 Results

14 Example 2: Smart City Accelerator EU funded project through the regional programme Interreg-ÖKS A research and innovation partnership working with optimizing energy systems away from fossil fuels towards a more sustainable future SCA involves universities, cities and companies in the Greater Copenhagen area & Skåne region who strive to be CO 2 neutral

15 Malmö, Sweden Founded in the 13th century on herring fishing Shipbuilding industry collapsed in the 1980s Malmö became an eco-city Carbon neutral by 2030

16 Challenge: Capacity Issue Svenska Kraftnet is upgrading the connection to SW Sweden, but it will take time

17 Potential Solutions Batteries Energy Efficiency Virtual Storage

18 Research Direction The theoretical technical potential for virtual storage and energy efficiency can be calculated but what about the behavioral potential? This is not just a technical problem. It requires understanding of the human issue to determine what is actually possible. Life cycle analysis what are the trade-offs? Involve graduate students in systems thinking!

19 Education and Training: Action Agenda To be effective, measures to improve energy efficiency must always be seen in a systemic, interdisciplinary context that includes a product/service life cycle within a local/regional energy system including end-users. energy efficiency improvements in technologies and processes should be spread among and adopted by the largest possible community of end users.

20 Education and Training: Action Agenda Socio-technical transitions - Accomplishing (a transformation of our energy system) requires an understanding of how such transitions occur, the identity of the players and how they are connected in the larger value chain (e.g. property owners versus residents). Behaviour analysis and incentive structures need to be identified to give a better understanding of how efficiency improvements relate to improvements in quality of life, and how to make the most of a utility using the lowest possible level of end user consumption.

21 Opportunities for Education and Training Involve students in research networks Involve students directly in the research projects Involve students in the communities where the transitions are occurring Promote interdisciplinary holistic systems thinking Prepare students for a career pioneering the energy transition

22 Thank you!