Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly LEP REPORT

Transcription

1 Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly LEP REPORT

2 Contents 3...Foreword 4...Overview of our region s economy 5...High level overview of our region s industries and occupations 6...What are our top industries? 7...What are our top occupations? 8...What are our highest paying industries and occupations? 9...What are our niche industries and occupations? 10...What are our most competitive industries and occupations? 11...Where are the jobs in our most niche industry? About Emsi 2 Economic Modelling Specialists International (Emsi) creates tools and services that help organisations better understand the connection between economies, people and work. Through our unparalleled local and granular economic data, we are now working with more than 100 colleges, universities and LEPs across the country, giving them the understanding they need in order to close skills gaps, drive growth, and increase productivity in their local economy.

3 Foreword The central role of LEPs determining local economic priorities, driving economic growth and helping to increase regional productivity all require that you have a thorough understanding of your regional economy. One of the methods at your disposal to help you acquire this understanding is of course Labour Market Information (LMI). There is a wealth of publicly available data sources available, but there are numerous problems associated with using them. To begin with, not one dataset out there gives a complete picture of the labour market. Secondly, all datasets contain strengths, weaknesses, and data suppressions. And thirdly, attempting to use the raw data is a hugely time-consuming and resource-consuming activity. Most LMI solutions can help overcome the first and the third problem, by combining different datasets into one system. However, this still doesn t overcome the second problem that of weaknesses and data suppressions. Since these problems and gaps in the data tend to occur at the 3 and 4-digit industry and occupation levels, what most LMI solutions tend to do is to make assumptions about the granular levels based on the data and trends at the more generic levels. This approach is bound to lead to erroneous conclusions, since many of the industries and occupations at the 3 and 4-digit level are quite different from one another and are highly unlikely to have been growing or declining at the same rate (for example, within the 2-digit Leisure, Travel and Related Personal Service Occupations, there are such disparate occupations as Travel Agents, Caretakers, Hairdressers and Barbers, and Sports and Leisure Assistants). The same errors will occur if assumptions are made at the geographical level, as regions are made up of sub-regions which are often far from homogenous. At Emsi we take a different approach. Rather than taking public datasets and making broad assumptions, we economically model them together using a technique developed over many years, which allows us to retain the strengths and discard the weaknesses of each source. What we end up with is a dataset that gives a detailed and accurate picture not only of regional labour markets, but also of the sub-geographies within, right down to the most specific industries and occupations. The intent of this report is to give you a flavour of this data, tailored specifically to your region. Some of the highlights of the data in this report are: Granular data (4-digit) on occupations and industries throughout A look at the industries and occupations which make your region unique A look at the occupational make up of the most unique industry in your region This kind of granular data can go a long way to helping you better understand what industries, occupations and skills are driving your region. In turn, this can help you in a number of ways, including better defining your region s economic priorities, formulating a more effective growth strategy, and encouraging inward investment into your region. Our goals are very similar to yours: you are looking to drive growth and increase productivity in your region; we produce granular data that is designed to give organisations such as yours the knowledge and understanding you need to be able to more effectively drive growth and increase productivity in your region. We hope that this report will be of use and of interest to you as you strive to meet your goals. 3

4 Overview of our region s economy Projected number of jobs by 2020: 226,105 Number of jobs in 2015: Forecast increase in jobs between 2015 and 2020: 221,031 5,074 Forecast job growth between 2015 and 2020: 2% Average wage in our region: 18,662 4

5 High level overview of our region s industries and occupations Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcyles Accommodation and Food Service Activities Human Health and Social Work Activities Professional Occupations Industry 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs Education Manufacturing 18,656 17,935 16,793 16,242 Occupation 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs Elementary Occupations Top 5 high level industries 31,577 33,420 31,088 32,571 32,266 32,971 40,079 40,865 Top 5 high level occupations 39,098 40,737 Skilled Trades Occupations Administrative and Secretarial Occupations Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 24,728 25,322 23,402 23,925 23,119 23,455 Top 5 high level growth industries Industry Change in Jobs ( ) % Change Accommodation and Food Service Activities 1,843 6% Human Health and Social Work Activities 1,483 5% Construction 1,199 9% Administrative and Support Service Activities 1,008 8% Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles 786 2% Top 5 high level growth occupations Occupation Change in Jobs ( ) % Change Elementary Occupations 1,639 4% Professional Occupations 705 2% Managers, Directors and Senior Officials 604 3% Skilled Trades Occupations 594 2% Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 523 2% 5

6 What are our top industries? A good place to start when trying to understand what is driving your regional economy is to look at which industries are driving employment both in terms of total numbers employed and in terms of future growth. However, simply looking at the headline industries will not tell you an awful lot. To come to a really good understanding of the drivers in your region, it is crucial to drill right down to the most specific industries (4-digit SIC). Our data tool, Analyst, allows users to do just this, and the information below shows both the biggest industries and the highest growth industries in your region, right down to the most granular levels. Top 10 biggest industries Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating Industry 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs Hospital activities Restaurants and mobile food service activities Growing of crops, market gardening, horticulture; Farming of animals Hotels and similar accommodation Primary education 7,802 7,443 8,050 8,427 9,716 9,393 10,417 10,963 11,386 11,563 10,112 11,119 Beverage serving activities Public administration and defence; compulsory social security General secondary education 5,311 5,041 4,846 6,175 6,780 6,778 Other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c. 3,507 3,384 Top 10 highest growth industries Industry Change in Jobs ( ) % Change Restaurants and mobile food service activities 1,007 10% Hospital activities 546 5% Other cleaning activities % Hotels and similar accommodation 377 5% General medical practice activities % Electrical installation % Residential nursing care activities % Construction of roads and motorways % Private security activities % 6 Other food service activities %

7 What are our top occupations? The industry data tells us a good deal, but we also need to look at the local economy through the lens of occupations to see which jobs are driving the regional economy. As with the industry data, our Analyst tool can drill right down to the most granular detail, and so below we have set out the Top 10 occupations in your region both in terms of total numbers employed, and forecasted change to 2020 at the 4-digit SOC level. Occupation 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs Sales and retail assistants Kitchen and catering assistants Care workers and home carers Cleaners and domestics Nurses Waiters and waitresses Other administrative occupations n.e.c. 4,804 5,097 4,703 4,988 4,629 4,753 6,092 6,407 6,088 6,115 5,994 6,308 Top 10 biggest occupations 10,800 10,785 Bar staff Farm workers Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks 3,384 3,467 3,232 3,366 3,989 4,037 Top 10 highest growth occupations Occupation Change in Jobs ( ) % Change Kitchen and catering assistants 315 5% Cleaners and domestics 314 5% Nurses 293 6% Waiters and waitresses 285 6% Security guards and related occupations % Chefs 169 5% Restaurant and catering establishment managers and proprietors % Receptionists 147 5% Medical practitioners 147 7% Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks 134 4% 7

8 What are our highest paying industries and occupations? Another important aspect of unlocking your region s labour market is to look at how much industries and occupations pay. As with the data presented on previous pages, we have drilled right down to the most granular 4-digit SIC and SOC codes to unlock the highest paying industries and occupations in your region. Industries Median annual salary 58, Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security Service activities incidental to land transportation 50, , Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding Manufacture of other textiles n.e.c. 45, Manufacture of carpets and rugs 45, Freight rail transport 43, Transmission of electricity 42, Construction of utility projects for fluids 40, Manufacture of other electrical equipment 39, , Wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels and related products Occupations Median hourly wage Aircraft pilots and flight engineers Information technology and telecommunications directors Chief executives and senior officials Medical practitioners Air traffic controllers Senior professionals of educational establishments Legal professionals n.e.c. Dental practitioners Advertising and public relations directors Marketing and sales directors

9 What are our niche industries and occupations? Where things begin to get really interesting is when we uncover the industries that make your regional economy unique. Our Analyst tool contains a function known as Location Quotient, which is a statistical measure of industry or occupation concentration in an area compared to the rest of the country. Location Quotient works on a benchmark basis, with 1.0 indicating the national average. Therefore, industries and occupations with a score of more than 1.0 indicates that they have an employment profile that is greater than the national average. Gathering of wild growing non-wood products Manufacture of cider and other fruit wines Transmission of electricity Manufacture and processing of other glass, including technical glassware Manufacture of cordage, rope, twine and netting Operation of gravel and sand pits; mining of clays and kaolin Industry 2015 LQ 2020 LQ Industry Location Quotient Other accommodation Other mining and quarrying n.e.c. Repair and maintenance of ships and boats Production of meat and poultry meat products Occupation Location Quotient Occupation 2015 LQ 2020 LQ Farm workers Hotel and accommodation managers and proprietors Managers and proprietors in agriculture and horticulture Boat and ship builders and repairers Quarry workers and related operatives Road construction operatives Fishing and other elementary agriculture occupations n.e.c Horticultural trades Farmers Pest control officers

10 What are our most competitive industries and occupations? We can also measure which industries and occupations make your region unique using a function on Analyst called Shift Share. Using this function produces a figure known as Competitive Effect, which is similar to Location Quotient, but rather than measuring uniqueness in terms of total jobs, measures it in terms of job growth. What this figure does, therefore, is to explain how much of the change in a given industry or occupation in your region is due to some unique competitive advantage that the region possesses. Positive numbers denote a positive Competitive Effect, and so the larger the number, the greater the Competitive Effect. Industry Competitiveness Industry Other amusement and recreation activities Other cleaning activities Hotels and similar accommodation General medical practice activities Activities of sport clubs Activities of employment placement agencies Competitive Effect Private security activities Production of meat and poultry meat products Technical and vocational secondary education Advertising agencies 152 Occupation Competitiveness Occupation Competitive Effect Cleaners and domestics 191 Security guards and related occupations 143 Restaurant and catering establishment managers and proprietors 58 Farm workers 57 Dental nurses 53 Medical practitioners 48 Cleaning and housekeeping managers and supervisors 48 Estate agents and auctioneers Road construction operatives 44 Nurses 41

11 Where are the jobs in our most niche industry? The data on page 9 showed which industries are most unique to your region. However, we might then ask the question, what are the occupations that these sectors employ? Through our Staffing Pattern function in Analyst, we can answer this question. The data below gives a breakdown of the Top 10 occupations within the second niche sector Manufacture of cider and other fruit wines including numbers employed, employment forecast, hourly earnings and education level (the reason we are using the second niche industry rather than the first, is that there are only sixteen people employed within the Gathering of wild growing non-wood products sector). The significance of this information is that you can find out quickly and simply what the occupations are in an industry, and therefore the skillset for that sector. It is worth noting that the process can also be run in reverse, whereby users can begin with an occupation (rather than an industry) and run an Inverse Staffing Pattern to quickly identify the industries that employ this position. Description Food, drink and tobacco process operatives Mechanical engineers Employed in Industry (2015) Employed in Industry (2020) Change ( ) % Change ( ) % of Total Jobs in Industry (2015) Median Hourly Earnings % 21.9% % 15.3% Education Level GCSE at grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2 Honours, Bachelor's degree; BTEC Level 6 Customer service occupations n.e.c. Production managers and directors in manufacturing Property, housing and estate managers % 13.0% % 11.1% % 6.9% GCSE at grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2 Honours, Bachelor's degree; BTEC Level 6 A Levels; Level 3 NVQ; BTEC Level 3 Electricians and electrical fitters Managers and proprietors in agriculture and horticulture Packers, bottlers, canners and fillers Planning, process and production technicians % 6.9% % 5.7% % 5.6% % 5.6% A Levels; Level 3 NVQ; BTEC Level 3 A Levels; Level 3 NVQ; BTEC Level 3 GCSE at grades D-G; Level 1 NVQ; BTEC Introductory / Level 2 A Levels; Level 3 NVQ; BTEC Level 3 Fork-lift truck drivers % 5.6% GCSE at grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2 11

12 To find out more about how Emsi can help your organisation build a better regional economy, contact: info@economicmodelling.co.uk Phone: Web: Blog: