ICT AND DEMAND FOR LABOUR: DOES AGE MATTER?

Transcription

1 ICT AND DEMAND FOR LABOUR: DOES AGE MATTER? Or: a bit of an outsider s view Michael Polder, OECD-STI/EAS Expert consultation on Active ageing in the digital economy 1-2 September 215, Harris-Manchester College, Oxford, UK What are the effects of ICT on employment? 1

2 at the macro-level and the industry-level Only moderate differences in the degree of substitution between labour and ICT capital among industries Agriculture Financial services Note: partial effects! (Possibly offsetting effects have not been modelled) 2

3 and the industry-level but substantial differences among countries Change in labour intensity associated with change in ICT cost, 1995 to 21 Austria France Sweden Italy Finland Germany Netherlands Denmark -25% -2% -15% -1% -5% % driven by substantial differences in decrease in cost of ICT 1.8 Non-ICT 1.2 ICT Austria Germany Denmark Finland France Italy Netherlands Sweden Austria Germany Denmark Finland France Italy Netherlands Sweden 3

4 Different impacts on different groups? Increasing body of evidence of different effects by skill level and/or type of job routine jobs the squeezed middle / polarized labour markets Different impacts on different groups? 4

5 Different impacts on different groups? Increasing evidence of different effects by skill level and/or type of job routine jobs the squeezed middle / polarized labour markets But what about the impact of new by worker age? Employability of older workers (Perceived) wage-productivity gap Less conducive to training and updating skills (lower payback period) Lacking knowledge and lower adoption of new technologies (Incentives to retire, reluctance to hire, employment protection rules) 5

6 Table B4.8 Percentage of workers who reported lack of computer skills to do their job well, by age, 212 (source: PIAAC) Table B4.9 Percentage of workers whose lack of computer skills have affected their chances of getting a job, promotion or pay raise, by age (source: PIAAC)

7 Collaborating Informing Training Presenting Selling Advising Planning Organising Managing Persuading Negotiating <5 minutes >3 minutes Physical work Manual tasks Numeracy Reading Writing 16/9/215 Incidence of training by age (NL working with age report) ICT complementary skills, by skill level, 212 Pairwise correlation coefficients between ICT and other skills used at work Coefficient High skills Medium skills Low skills Coop. Horizontal interaction Client interaction Selfdirection Mngt. skills Influence Problem solving Phys. Manual skills skills Cognitive skills at work Source: OECD calculations based on Programme for International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) Database, June 215. See chapter notes. 7

8 All year-olds year-olds 29 ISL DNK NOR SWE FIN NLD KOR CHE LUX FRA AUT SVK CAN BEL OECD LVA SVN DEU IRL GBR NZL EST AUS HUN ESP GRC LTU PRT CZE ISR CRI BRA TUR POL ITA CHL RUS COL % 16/9/215 Number of activities performed online, 214 Per Internet user by educational attainment and age Number of activities 9 8 Education gap All Internet users year-olds Tertiary education Low or no formal education 2 1 Source: OECD calculations based on Eurostat, Information Society Statistics Database and ad-hoc data tabulation by KISA, June 215. See chapter notes. Individuals using the Internet to interact with public authorities, by age, 214 As a percentage of population in each age group Source: OECD, ICT Database; Eurostat, Information Society Statistics Database and ITU, World Telecommunication/ICT indicators Database, July 215. StatLink contains more data. See chapter notes. 8

9 Use of mobile phone for professional purposes by age bracket, 211 (% of all individuals) Source: Eurostat.5 Use of mobile internet for professional purposes by age bracket, 211 (% of all individuals) Source: Eurostat 9

10 Summary There are various routes through which ICT can affect the demand for labour although overall employment in the long run may not be affected there may be differences by groups of workers... especially those in increasingly ICT intensive jobs but lower ICT skills in this respect the employability of older workers may decrease, as they more often lack the appropriate ICT skills in their current job and further career development are less conducive to update their skills show a lower degree of adoption of new in both their private and professional life For discussion Is the scope for (ICT-enabled) alternative forms of employment (e.g. Uber) limited, given overall limited ICT skills of senior workers? Is there a potential for public-privately financed ICT training programs, to update senior worker ICT skills and create jobs for young digital natives? Given youth unemployment at an all time high, are we looking in the right direction? Should older workers in fact not retire earlier to make way for an otherwise lost generation, instead of being stimulated to keep working and updating skills? Is the digital divide at work a fading problem? The 55+ group starts with people that were 35 in 1995 when the internet took off do we expect that in the future, adoption will remain a problem related to age? 1