Productivity Key measurement challenges

Transcription

1 Productivity Key measurement challenges Anita Wölfl, OECD Statistics Directorate OECD Workshop on Productivity, Paris, 5-6 November 2012

2 Measuring Productivity why and how? Why - Productivity is again top on the policy agenda Comparison across countries... Industries and over time. How by ensuring four elements: Methodology and concepts (e.g., capital services, intangibles) Data availability (e.g., investment by detailed asset, hours worked by industry) Internal consistency (e.g., output-input, aggregate-industries) International comparability (e.g., PPIs in services)

3 CZE SVN HUN SWE FIN AUT DEU NLD FRA PRT CAN NOR BEL ESP DNK ITA CZE SVN HUN SWE FIN AUT DEU NLD FRA PRT CAN NOR BEL ESP DNK ITA Labour productivity what policy makers request Annual average growth in real value added per hour worked, in % * * Manufacturing Business sector services

4 But more tricky than one thinks Preferred measure GDP (or real value added) per hour worked Real value added While comparability is good on the aggregate, problems remain on the detailed level, notably services Hours worked Variability notably linked to data source used Difficult to measure on an industry level Data availability of industry data

5 Measuring real value added in services ~ get the prices right What makes services different? Unique product, no/few repeated transactions => difficult to observe prices. Quality matters, but difficult to disentangle. Implication for deflators Recourse to different methods to track price changes: explicit output charged mechanisms, margin-pricing, time-spent mechanisms. methods typically vary across countries.

6 PPIs in Business Services different methods used OECD and Eurostat (2013), Methodological Guide for Developing Producer Price Indices for Services, forthcoming.

7 PPIs in Business Services some progress on the way Service activities Availability in EU countries Pricing method used Freight transport by road 25 Telecommunication 21 Computer programming, 18 consultancy and related activities Legal activities 21 Management consultancy activities Maintenance & repair of motor vehicles Publishing of books, periodicals and other publishing activities 20 GBR SVN, FIN, FRA, SWE, GBR / ISR, JPN, USA Contract pricing & Model pricing; Direct use of prices of repeated services, Unit value & time-based methods Direct use of prices of repeated services (including use of CPI data), Unit Value, Component pricing, & Model pricing Model pricing; Direct use of prices of repeated services & Time-based methods Percentage fee, Model pricing & & Time based methods (hourly charge-out rates) Model pricing & Time based methods; Direct use of prices of repeated services & Contract pricing Direct use of prices of repeated services Unit value Wholesale & retail trade NA/ AUS, CAN, USA Margin pricing Financial intermediation NA / USA User cost approach implemented in the US: Unit value, Percentage fee, direct use of prices of repeated services Insurance NA / CAN, USA Direct use of prices of repeated services, Model pricing OECD and Eurostat (2013), Methodological Guide for Developing Producer Price Indices for Services, forthcoming.

8 Ireland Portugal Mexico Austria Poland Slovak Republic Israel Spain Korea Sweden Netherlands Slovenia Norway Canada Estonia Italy Finland Hungary Germany Denmark United States Greece Luxembourg France Czech Republic Data source used to measure hours worked matters % difference to the Hours Worked in the ANA, 2009 EmpOutlook, based on NA EmpOutlook, based on LFS

9 Ireland Portugal Mexico Austria Poland Slovak Republic Israel Spain Korea Sweden Netherlands Slovenia Norway Canada Estonia Italy Finland Hungary Germany Denmark United States Greece Luxembourg France Czech Republic in levels but also in growth for some countries Hours worked in 2009, Index, 1999=100 ANA database EmpOutlook, based on NA EmplOutlook, based on LFS

10 Data availability has slowed linked to the move to ISICRev4 ISIC Rev.3.1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing ISIC Rev.4 A B C D Agriculture, hunting and forestry Fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing B C D E F Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas, steam Water supply; sewerage, waste Construction E Electricity, gas and water supply G Wholesale and retail trade; F Construction H Transportation and storage G Wholesale and retail trade; I Accommodation and food service activities H Hotels and restaurants J Information and communication I J K L M N Transport, storage and communications Financial intermediation Real estate, renting and business Public administration Education Health and social work K L M N O P Q Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Professional, scientific and technical activities Administrative and support service activities Public administration Education Human health and social work activities O Other community, social, personal R Arts, entertainment and recreation P Activities of private households S Other service activities Q Extraterritorial organizations and bodies T Activities of households U Activities of extraterritorial organizations

11 JPN ITA DEU FRA CHE DNK SWE USA CAN AUT NZL ESP FIN NLD GBR AUS KOR IRL Knowing where growth comes from is key for policy makers Annual average contribution to growth in GDP, , in % Labour input ICT capital Non-ICT capital Multi-factor productivity

12 What is captured by MFP and how should it be interpreted? Growth in output Share of capital input in total costs Growth in total capital services Share of labour input in total costs Growth in total labour input M F P d d ln ln Y t s K N i s Ki d ln K d ln t i s L d d ln ln L t Share of each asset in total capital income Growth in capital services per asset

13 Experience from countries implementing 2008SNA - R&D Service lives used dependent on: the type of R&D: e.g. basic research: 13 years; applied research: 11 years; experimental development: 9 years, specific industry: 7 years (computer programming), 9 years (electronics), and 15, 20 or 60 years (chemical and pharmaceutical products), Number of countries use default of 10 years PIM based on geometric depreciation rate

14 Experience from countries implementing 2008SNA - R&D Remaining issues: BoP and SNA: treatment of trade in patents in commercial services under R&D services Treatment of R&D by multinational corporations? How to ensure consistency between different data sources, e.g. R&D surveys and structural business surveys Choice and sensitivity of the deflation method

15 Thank you for your interest For further information on some of the material presented here, see our 2012 OECD Productivity Compendium on: 2012 OECD Workshop on Productivity