UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 ERTMS Planning for the Future. M. Pottendorfer Alcatel TSD Austria December 2004

Transcription

1 UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 ERTMS Planning for the Future M. Pottendorfer Alcatel TSD Austria December 2004

2 > Business Aspects > ERTMS General aspects > Migration Presentation Outline > ERTMS benefits Railways profitability UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 2

3 > Context European Rail Transport: Business Aspects Extension of EU principle of liberalized flow of goods and passengers to an enlarged Europe. Railway infrastructure is an essential part of the core Trans-European Transport network (~ km) 2020 Forecasts : strong growth in EU transport demands, particularly for freight (68% within EU15-94% within CEEC) > Challenges Stop continuous decline of rail market share ( -66% in 30 years). Meet the required timeframes, i.e. start acting now (typical rail project duration 10 to 15 years). Speed-up European railway initiatives implementation. UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 3

4 European Rail Transport: Business Aspects > Opportunities Ever increasing traffic congestions requires modal rebalancing (road, rail, air, water). Railways offer potential for a superior transport mode particularly as compared to road traffic. Promising business perspectives specially for international long-haul rail freight transport. > Foundations Europe is the competence continent for rail transport and drives the evolution of world railways standards. Europe promotes European Rail Transport Management System (ERTMS) in an attempt to overcome traditional deficiencies. ERTMS enables borderless competitive railways in Europe and represents a tremendous opportunity for railways industries as a potential de facto world standard ( cf Model case GSM ). UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 4

5 Rail Transport Business: Service Chain, Revenues, Costs goods, passengers logistic services per ton-km or per p-km (revenues) Service Chain train from a to b operation rolling stock operation transport slot dispatching signalling route / train control train operation costs Infrastructure fees per km of slot infrastructure operation costs ETCS w/o Cab Signalling Signalling / ETCS ERTMS rails, points, catenary UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 5

6 European Rail Transport Infrastructure: Business Vision competitive railways, regaining transport market share! > Reduce Costs focus on life cycle costs (OPEX/CAPEX considerations) go for more unattended operations efficiency and effectiveness of the rail transport system > Increase Sales sell more transport slots attract and run more trains provide attractive paths for freight / passenger operators with the right quality of service go international UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 6

7 Challenges: Freight Aspects > Road and Rail Freight (non-local) forecasts ~ 75% increase till 2020 Rail freight share vs. road at a constant ratio of 40% Assumption: (at least some of the) proactive measures as defined by the EU van Miert group happen > Freight Business Worth today at least 40 G /year Projected to grow to more than 100 G /year by 2020 The above growth rate is worth at least a surplus of ~ 1.4 G per year for rail freight business Rail freight business is international rail freight [Gtonkm] road freight [Gtonkm] Source: DG TREN Study (2003) Scenarios, traffic forecast and analysis of TEN corridors UIC 2001: EU statistical freight travel distance ~ 267 km UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 7

8 > Business Aspects > ERTMS General aspects > Migration Presentation Outline > ERTMS benefits Railways profitability UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 8

9 Historical Rail Market Barriers: Route/Train Control EBICAB 700/1000 EBICAB 900 ATB/ATB-NG AWS TBL TVM/KVB ASFA/LZB ZUB 123 KHP INDUSI/LZB INDUSI/LZB EVM EBICAB 700 SIGNUM/ZUB121 BACC/RSDD UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 9

10 Rail Main Lines: Capacity, Interoperability, Speed > Investing into civil works additional tracks separate tracks for freight and passenger traffic station layout optimisation for dispatching efficiency > Investing into route- and train control operations modernise interlockings, improve fixed block grid fit the rolling stock fleet with appropriate onboard systems support a telematics approach to traffic dispatching > On the basis of ERTMS/ETCS guidelines and specifications fostering interoperability (for train control and train radio) ensuring safe and dependable train traffic operation yielding capacity increases when properly applied electronics versus concrete UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 10

11 Improved Rail Main Lines capacity: electronics instead of concrete > The Swiss comparison analysis investing into civil works ( concrete ) versus investing into ERTMS/ETCS route- and train control ( electronics ) > Yields results strongly in favour of electronics at equal capacity improvements, electronics costs less than 25% (and typically half of that on average) of the investment necessary for concrete solutions electronics investment is possible for existing and newly built networks electronics investment can materialise faster and pays back earlier with the standardised ERTMS/ETCS solutions, the electronics to be invested in is defined, available, and more and more proven in use UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 11

12 European Rail Transport - ERTMS Initiative Signalling ETCS Telecommunications GSM-R Europtirails Traffic Management Other Legacy/New Systems An Integrated Telematics Backbone across Europe UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 12

13 A view beyond European Borders > International ERTMS/ETCS related Activities Project and Tendering Activities e.g. Korea, India, China > Motivation Increased capacity Increased safety Increased speed > Why ERTMS? Established Signalling Technology Defined & high safety standards Economies of scale due to bigger market and standardisation UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 13

14 Railway Challenges: opportunity assessment > UIC Position Paper (Leipzig ) Dr. Peter Winter, Implementing the European Train Control System ETCS in Europe Survey of ongoing projects Short-term opportunities for European Rail Corridors (timeframe 2008) Discusses route- and train control legacy situation for main operators in Europe Provides concept overview, cost/price aspects, migration strategies, short and mid term perspectives, assessment of some important corridors Concludes: ETCS Level 1 prevails in all 7 analysed conventional corridors, with a complementary role for Level 2 in 1 out of these 7 projects ETCS Level 2 dominates for the analysed high speed/high capacity corridors with complementary chances for Level 1 in 3 out of 4 projects Go for ERTMS/ETCS now! UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 14

15 Some Rail Main Lines and the ERTMS/ETCS Rationale UIC Implementing the European Train Control System, Leipzig, 12/2003 UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 15

16 > Business Aspects > ERTMS General aspects > Migration Presentation Outline > ERTMS benefits Railways profitability UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 16

17 Railway Challenges: the years ahead > European Railway Migration Period In the timeframe of many identified railway priority projects, infrastructure and rolling stock will be gradually upgraded to enable an ETCS mode of operation Basically this constitutes a migration period of ca years from now on In the same timeframe, important legacy systems will still be used and gradually outphased ETCS Level 1 complementary to Level 2 serves the migration phase as it is independent of the train radio system and allows for mixed traffic of equipped and non-fitted trains while still aiming at the same ERTMS/ETCS objectives The available commercial offering ETCS L1 and L2 of several suppliers can be used as a leverage to energise the ERTMS expansion UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 17

18 ERTMS / ETCS Infrastructure: Application Segments and Migration Scenarios Radio Infrastructure GSM-R train control GSM-R train radio Legacy radio ETCS Level 1 2 ETCS Level 1 0 ETCS Level 1 Interlocking (IXL) as is ETCS Level 2 ETCS Level 2 ETCS Level 1 ETCS Level 1 3 ETCS Level 1 ETCS Level 1 IXL + ETCS i/f Interlocking Infrastructure 1 4 ETCS Level 1 ETCS Level 1 IXL + ETCS I/f + FB densing UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 18

19 ERTMS / ETCS System Constituents: Interfaces and Lifetimes > 25 years field elements field elements subsystem lifetime CTC Interlocking (IXL) Balise Control Fixed block scheme Cab signalling Radio: voice & data ETCS Level 1 ERTMS ETCS Level 2 ERTMS train ERTMS control train radio Interlocking (IXL) Radio Block Control CTC Euro-Radio 7-10 years GSM-R radio backbone UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 19

20 ERTMS Railway Transport Mode: Migration and Interfaces > Fixed block scheme: remains - for the coming years key to railway future the dominating signalling principle in rail main lines signalling also with ERTMS/ETCS; field element control and interlocking thus continue to play their known roles, mostly with established/unchanged interfaces > Radio-based Train Control: with ETCS Level 2, apart from Euro-Radio, interfaces arise due to RBC IXL CTC interactions, mostly new and non standard; towards the lineside signalling the above statements apply > Paradigm shift: cab signalling eventually harmonising train operations while yet a variety of differing underlying signalling principles persist > Telecom Signalling life-time incoherence: the largely varying product life cycles of standard signalling and off-the shelf telecom equipment require thorough product migration and obsolescence strategies to actually materialise economic and operational benefits UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 20

21 ERTMS Railway Transport Mode: Fleet Migration Possible Modes of Train Operation: Achievable Capacity Gain low medium high ETCS Level 1, Lineside Signals ETCS Level 1, Lineside Signals ETCS Level 1, Lineside signals ETCS Level 1, Lineside Signals (a) ETCS Level 2, (no Lineside Signals) (b) ETCS Level 1, few Lineside Signals low medium full % of fleet fitted (i.e. migration years ahead) UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 21

22 > Business Aspects > ERTMS General aspects > Migration Presentation Outline > ERTMS benefits Railways profitability UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 22

23 Fee revenues (relative units) 352 k Infrastructure fees and train headway 1 min train headway reduction worth ~ 33 k / year and km 1,00 0,75 0,50 0, k min train headway reduction worth ~ 11 k / year and km 88 k Example fee: 2 / km of track annual revenues per track km: 44 k Avg train headway [min] UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 23

24 On ERTMS/ETCS Commercial Justification (a) > Viewpoint infrastructure provider: business is to run (more) trains by offering interoperable network open to international usage invests to increase capacity / speed (where necessary) and to lower his OPEX costs > Achieves revenues selling transport slots (regularly / on demand) by operating effectively and efficiently additional services for rail transport sales UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 24

25 ERTMS/ETCS infrastructure upgrade CAPEX situations ETCS Level 1 GSM-R ETCS Level 2 (C) Decentralised Centralised (C) Centralised (a)+(b)+ FB impr. Decentralised (B) Decentralised (b) IXL plus ETCS i/f (A) (a) Interlocking (IXL) as is GSM-R train control GSM-R train radio (B) RBC + TSS Balises RBC + TSS Balises (a)+(b)+ FB impr. (b) IXL plus ETCS i/f (a) Interlocking (IXL) as is UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 25

26 On ERTMS/ETCS Commercial Justification (b) > Viewpoint rolling stock operator: business is to transport (more) passengers / goods faster / at lower costs internationally / throughout Europe invests because of regulations, to pay less slot fees > Achieves revenues selling passenger-km and ton-km with a related quality of service UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 26

27 ERTMS/ETCS onboard upgrade CAPEX situations ETCS Level I MMI ETCS Level II MMI GSM-R EVC JUR EVC JUR TIU TIU BTM SDMU STM (optional) BTM SDMU STM (optional) Upgrade: add radio module, exchange Software! Each Level II Loco must be able to run on a Level I network, too! UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 27

28 Summary and Conclusion: Efficient and Competitive Railways > ERTMS/ETCS Operation: the European key to regain/improve market share for High Speed and Conventional rail traffic (passenger / freight) > Value for Money: electronic instead of concrete outperforms typical brute force investment into rail civil works at least a factor of 4; business cases are attractive for infrastructure and train operators > Fostering Migration: right mix choice of ETCS L1 & L2 infrastructure, as both support ERTMS interoperability and safety, provide for capacity and speed enhancements phased investments to allow for a migration period for fitting network infrastructure and fleet provide an optimal return on investment evolution no revolution considering time frames, ERTMS-affected infrastructure (~ km TEN-T network), rolling stock (~ vehicles) > Competence Continent Europe: ERTMS products are mature and available, roll-out can be done now and quickly, at competitive prices UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 Alcatel - 28

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