KANTAR WORLDPANEL DAIRY TALK :30A M 11 : 0 0 A M S h e r a t o n S a i g o n. Kantar Worldpanel
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1 KANTAR WORLDPANEL DAIRY TALK :30A M 11 : 0 0 A M S h e r a t o n S a i g o n
2 CONSUMER PULSE 2013 BETWEEN CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES Urban 4 Key Cities and Rural Vietnam
3 VIETNAM DID YOU KNOW? SURFACE AREA 331 thousands km 2 Global ranking: No. 66 YOUNG AGE Over 50% population is under their 30 s ON-GOING URBANIZATION % urban pop: 32% Urbanization rate: 3% YOUNG DYNAMIC POTENTIAL HUGE POPULATION 88 Millions Global ranking: No. 14 DYNAMIC ECOMOMY A member of the new BRICS: CIVETS and VISTA GDP ranking: No. 57 3
4 CHALLENGES: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN 2012 WEAKER DEMAND Consumer Confidence % LOWEST GDP GROWTH IN 2 DECADES LOWER FDI Implemented FDI (Billion USD) Source: TNS CCIP Urban Only Source: GSO Source: GSO 4
5 BRIGHT SPOTS TO PAVE THE WAY FOR A REBOUND IN 2013 CURBED INFLATION STRONGER EXTERNAL POSITION TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITY CPI Growth % 18.6% 1 st time in 20 years: New entrants 2012: 9.2% Source: GSO TRADE BALANCE OF +284 MLN USD Source: GSO 5
6 A TWO TIERS SOCIETY IS EMERGING, CREATING DISPARITIES Modern vs. Traditional Rich vs. Poor Urban vs. Rural North vs. South VIBRANT & HI-TECH EMERGING NEEDS MORE COMPLEX CAUTIOUS & FACE DRIVEN TRADITIONAL Fabrice Carrasco BASIC NEEDS PRIMARY & REMOTE MODERN, NEW NEWS 6
7 FROM MASS TO SEGMENTATION Personal demands need to be taken care more, to satisfy different needs by different consumer clusters CLUSTER 1: BABIES <4YO CLUSTER 2: KIDS 5-14 YO Over 1 million newborns every year 6.9 mln 7.0 mln 7.1 mln ~ population of Switzerland ~ 70% Vietnamese women agree I tend to buy what my children want 7
8 FROM MASS TO SEGMENTATION Personal demands need to be taken care more, to satisfy different needs by different consumer clusters CLUSTER 3: TEENS Having fun is one of our highest priorities. (TNS TRU report) CLUSTER 4 YOUNG ADULTS The main base of Vietnam population in the next 10 years. CLUSTER 5 MIDDLE AGE & SENIORS 83% of middle aged housewives agree: I buy brands that are of good quality, even more expensive. vs. 78% of young housewives ~ 70% Vietnamese women agree 8
9 CHANGING RETAIL LANDSCAPE MODERN TRADE KEEPS EXPANDING REGIONAL ROADMAP MT value contribution % KOREA UB 80% THAILAND 53% CHINA UB 41% URBAN GROWTH MT value contribution % RURAL EMERGENCE MT Penetration % 84.7 Urban Rural PHILIPPINES 28% VIETNAM UB 18% MT Value Share in Rural 1.8% Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban Vietnam 4 key cities & Rural Total FMCG excluding Gift Value %
10 MAT P3 12 MAT P3 13 Jan 11 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 FMCG IN URBAN MONTHLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%) After a half-year recovery, there is a signal of growth slow-down in both value and volume in the latest 6 months, most significantly for Personal care Avg. Price per pack Value Volume (packs) Make-up Facial Moisturizer Vol growth (pack) 6m vs. YA DAIRY 4% BEVERAGE 10% PACK. FOOD 1% PERSONAL CARE -4% HOME CARE 2% Vol growth (pack) 6m vs. YA URBAN 4 3% HCM 3% HANOI 4% DANANG 7% CANTHO 3% Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Vietnam 4 key urban cities Total FMCG excluding Gift 10
11 MAT P3 12 MAT P3 13 Jan 11 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 FMCG IN RURAL MONTHLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%) The situation is worse in rural as the growth is consistently going down, and reached the lowest point lately, happening most significantly for Personal care products Mouth rinse Hair Conditioner Facial moisturizer Vol growth (pack) 6m vs. YA DAIRY 10% BEVERAGE 10% PACK. FOOD 2% PERSONAL CARE -9% HOME CARE 9% Vol growth (pack) 6m vs. YA RURAL 3% NORTH 4% CENTRAL 8% SOUTH -2% Avg. Price per pack Value Volume (packs) Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Rural Vietnam Total FMCG excluding Gift 11
12 CONSUMER REACT Pragmatic behaviour is observed in short-term. 1 BULKY PURCHASE? YES, but much less stock up vs. before Number of FMCG packs bought per trip - % change vs. YA 10% 8% 9% Half year ending Q3/2012 Half year ending Q1/2013 8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 2% 3% 4% 1% 5% 2% 3% 5% 3% 4% 3% 0% -2% 0% URBAN 4 HCMC HANOI DANANG CANTHO RURAL NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Total FMCG excluding Gift 12
13 Volume switching percentage change % P312 P412 P512 P612 P712 P812 P912 P1012 P1112 P1212 P1312 P113 P213 P313 CONSUMER REACT Pragmatic behaviour is observed in short-term. 2 UPSIZE OR DOWNSIZE? Still upsizing trend in long-term, yet slowing down signal is observed in Hanoi and North Rural Upsizing trend in volume switching % - Rolling MAT YOY trend (5) (10) Shower gel ML - Hanoi Facial Foam >50G/ML - Hanoi Dishwashing 4-4.9L - Hanoi Functional Adult Milk Powder >500G - Hanoi Granules >500G - North & Central Rural Fabcon Non-sachet - Rural Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Total FMCG excluding Gift Updated to Q1/
14 CONSUMER REACT Pragmatic behaviour is observed in short-term. 3 VALUE-FOR-MONEY OPTIONS? Penetration % PRIVATE LABEL IS GAINING GROUND 34% 35% 40% % 57% 64% Repurchase rate % NUMEROUS PROMOTION CAMPAIGNS & LOW PRICE OFFERS Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Total FMCG excluding Gift 14
15 P312 P412 P512 P612 P712 P812 P912 P1012 P1112 P1212 P1312 P113 P213 P313 Switching occasions CONSUMER REACT Pragmatic behaviour is observed in short-term. 4 CHANNEL SHIFTING? Switching trend from Street shop to H+S - Rolling MAT YOY trend Slowing down shifting trend from street shop to Hyper Supermarket Provision Store Mom&Pop store Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Total FMCG excluding Gift 15
16 VIETNAMESE CONSUMER TRENDS TOWARDS FMCG SPEED & CONVENIENCE HEALTH & WELLNESS FROM BASIC TO ADDED VALUE INNOVATION
17 CONVENIENCE SEEKING Rice soup enters more Urban families, especially households with Kid <12YO Incremental recruitment of 90,000 urban households in 2012 Ground coffee Soluble coffee 17
18 KNOWLEDGABLE CONSUMERS HEALTH CARE SOYA MILK LIQUID MILK INSTANT NOODLES Volume per buyer 57 Liter (vs. 50L in 2010) Urban 4 cities 27 Liter (vs. 19L in 2010) Rural Penetration % 41% (vs. 34% in 2010) Urban 4 cities 40% (vs. 25% in 2010) Rural Non-fried products reach 22% Urban households in 8 months 18
19 SOPHISTICATED NEEDS READY TO PAY FOR ADDED VALUE Cup yogurt Liquid detergent Price index: 112 Price index: 135 Beauty Cup yogurt reaches 12% Urban families in 10 months ~ 270,000 households 10 Liter per Urban family (FY12) doubled FY10 figure Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel Urban 4 key cities & Rural Vietnam excluding gift 19
20 MARKET DYNAMICS Nowadays, consumers are exposed to many choices, esp. in personal products. More new packsizes are offered to satisfy consumers different needs #1 SHAMPOO 172 new packsizes # new SKUs PACK SIZE 1,530 LIQUID BATH 101 new packsizes In FMCG only, over 3,500 launches of new products / SKUs in 2012 (13% active SKUs) #2 VARIANT 1,017 #3 BRAND 937 LIQUID BATH 80 new variants SHAMPOO 69 new variants BISCUITS 60 new brands GROUND COFEE 50 new brands Source: Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam Urban 4 key cities - Total FMCG Kantar Worldpanel
21 CHALLENGES OPPORTUNITIES MODERN RETAIL LANDSCAPE VIETNAM CONSUMER PULSE KEY TAKE-AWAY CONVENIENCE HEALTH ADDED VALUE INNOVATION RURAL
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