Biblis A Biblis B Brokdorf Brunsbüttel Emsland, Lingen Grafenrheinfeld Grohnde Gundremmingen B Gundremmingen C Isar I, Essenbach Isar II Krümmel, Geesthacht Neckarwestheim I Neckarwestheim II Philippsburg I Philippsburg II Unterweser, Esensham 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Module 17 Europe after Fukushima Status 31.12.2014 Vienna University of Technology Atominstitute Stadionallee 2 A-1020 Vienna, Austria ph: ++43-1-58801 141368 boeck@ati.ac.at
Situation in Europa after Fukushima Fukushima was a major nuclear accident (INES 7) No persons were killed due to overexposure No delayed radiation effects exspected Large media coverage especially in German speaking countries The accident had a big international impact on nuclear power safety The role of the IAEA was rather disappointing In Europe Germany, Switzerland and Italy reconsidered their nuclear power program
Updated State of NPPs Worldwide Status 31.12.2013, ATW 2013, p 172 NPP in operation : 437 in 31 countries Net power: 372 GWe Net energy production: 2 628 TWh NPP under construction: 70 NPPs with GWe net in 15 countries(such as ARG-1,BELRUS-1, BRA-1,China-29, FIN-1,F-1, India-6,JAP-2, KOR-5,PAK-2,RUS-10, SK-2, Taiwan-2, USA-5, UAE-2) NPP under planning worldwide: 115 units in various planning stages in 25 countries
Europe after Fukushima Red: Phase out of NPP s Green: Continue with NPP s Yellow: No major changes
Belgium 7 nuclear power plants in operation 4 units in Doel 3 units in Tihange Pressurized Water type (PWR) first unit operational since 1974 total capacity 5800 MWe 55% of the electricity needs of Belgium 45% mostly gas-fired and some coal plants projected operation end 2015 2025 Phase out decision after Fukushima
Bulgaria During EU accession negotiations Bulgaria committed to close Kozloduy 1 & 2 by the end of 2002 and units 3 & 4 by the end of 2006e. All four units are V-230 model VVER-440 reactors Construction at Belene officially restarted in September 2008, only preliminary site activities are being carried out until a strategic investor for the project has been found. Completion of the units, which had originally been expected in December 2013 (unit 1) and June 2014 (unit 2), has been put back by at least a year. The Bulgarian government is seeking new investors for up to 80% of the project No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans
Czech Republic With Temelin 1 & 2 (994 MWe), Skoda modified the high pressure turbines over 2004-07 in a EUR 26 million project to achieve 1013 MWe gross, a further upgrade since is expected to result in 1050 MWe gross. Two or large reactors at Temelin and one more to replace Dukovany are planned eventually after 2020 NUCNET 197/2011 + 219/2011 In July 2008 CEZ announced a plan to build two more reactors at Temelin totalling up to 3400 MWe, with commissioning the first unit in 2020. CEZ quoted a March public opinion poll showing 77% of citizens (and 56% of Green party voters) supporting the new Temelin units. Three nuclear vendors have qualified to submit formal offers for the construction of units 3 and 4 at Temelin Selection of the successful supplier scheduled for 2012 Westinghouse with its AP1000, Areva with its European Pressurised Water Reactor (EPR1600), Consortium comprising of Skoda, Atomstroyexport and Gidropress with the MIR (Modernised International) NUCNET174, 16.8.2011
CEZ conditions for NPP tender (declared in 8/2009) PWR type (3/3+ generation) existing NPP sites will be used output 1000 1500 MWe turn key delivery compliance with the Czech legislation and IAEA, EUR, WENRA conditions design of NPP is licensed in country of origin high participation of the Czech industry Final decision of tender early 2012 NPP operation 2020 NUCNET 197/2011 + 219/2011 No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans, 2 NPP s at the Temelin site and 1 NPP at the Dukovany site under planning
Finland New NPP projects Parliament ratified on July 1, 2010 the Decisions-in-Principle (DiP), regarding Olkiluoto 4 by TVO and Fennovoima for one unit at a new site. The application of Fortum for Loviisa 3 was rejected. Fennovoima is a nuclear newcomer in Finland The company is owned by E.ON (34 %), local and regional energy companies The DiP stipulates that a plausible plan for spent fuel management and disposal has to be developed within 6 years. New nuclear site is on the North West Coast, possible sites (Simo or Pyhäjoki) DiP was also approved for Olkiluoto 4, DiP also approved for expanding the capacity of the spent fuel repository to be constructed in Olkiluoto. No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans, 2 new NPP in concrete planning stage
France France invests 1Mrd. for nuclear R&D especially for Gen IV NPP (Sarkozy 27.6.2011) France continues to rely on safe, independent and economic electricity supply based on NPP Further 1,3 Mrd. will be invested in the development of regenerative energy sources ATW July,435 No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans
Maximale- Mittelere- Garantierte unterste Leistung Wind März 2011
Press Articles on Fukushima : until 14.04.2011 Germany 43.640 All other EU member states 9.300 Source: Meltwater News In Germany until 12.04.: More than 300 registered inquiries at Helmholtz Institute More than 150 articles in print media, More than 50 TV reports, More than 80 radio interviews, More than 270 articles in online media.
Germany In June 2000 a compromise was announced which saved face for the government and secured the uninterrupted operation of the nuclear plants for many years ahead. The agreement, while limiting plant lifetime to some degree, averted the risk of any enforced plant closures during the term of the present government. The agreement put a cap of 2623 billion kwh on lifetime production by all 19 operating reactors, equivalent to an average lifetime of 32 years (less than the 35 years sought by industry). After Fukushima a political discussion started resulting in an immediate shut down of 8 older NPP s, further the government decided on 29.May to phase out all NPP s until 2022 German politicians state that there are enough other sources such hydro, wind, solar and biomass
German nuclear power phase-out (Status 28.09.2010) 2010 Biblis A Biblis B Brokdorf Brunsbüttel Emsland, Lingen Grafenrheinfeld Grohnde Gundremmingen B Gundremmingen C Isar I, Essenbach Isar II Krümmel, Geesthacht Neckarwestheim I Neckarwestheim II Philippsburg I Philippsburg II Unterweser, Esensham 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
German nuclear power phase-out (Status June 2011) 2011 2022 Biblis A Biblis B inoperative (Moratorium) inoperative (Moratorium) Brokdorf Brunsbüttel inoperative (Moratorium) Emsland, Lingen Grafenrheinfeld Grohnde Gundremmingen B Gundremmingen C Isar I, Essenbach inoperative (Moratorium) Isar II Krümmel, Geesthacht Neckarwestheim I inoperative (Moratorium) Neckarwestheim II Philippsburg I inoperative (Moratorium) Philippsburg II Unterweser, Esensham inoperative (Moratorium) 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Germany after Fukushima
Germany before and after 15.3.2011 ATW July p.448
Germany Shut down procedure 8 (7 + 1 in maintenance) of the oldest reactors shut-down immediately after Fukushima 3/11 - will not go back in operation One of them shall be kept as cold back-up reserve until 2013 6 elder reactors shall be shut-down in 2021 3 of the newest reactors to be shut down in 2022 In the year 2018, a commission shall verify if the 3 newest reactors will still be needed in 2022 or can also be shut down in 2021 Existing fossil back-up power plants shall replace the nuclear reactors No nuclear produced electricity shall be imported! (Whatever this means?) A monitoring commission shall constantly watch the development of the renewable replacement energy and report to the government on a yearly basis. Major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans
Electricity production from wind and PV in Germany 20.000 18.000 16.000 14.000 Installed windpower : 2010 = 27.204 MW Installed capacity PV : 2010 = 17.320 MW 44.524 MW 12.000 MW 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 Summe Average 11.3.-23.3. 2.000 22.03.2011 21.03.2011 20.03.2011 19.03.2011 18.03.2011 17.03.2011 16.03.2011 15.03.2011 14.03.2011 13.03.2011 12.03.2011 11.03.2011 0 23.03.2011 Source: Data Bundesnetzagentur 2011
Effects Energieszenarien 2011 Prognois AG http://www.prognos.com/fileadmin/pdf/publikationsdatenbank/11_08_12_energieszenarien_2011.pdf Higher electricity costs influence overall industry prices negativ Importe replace national production, unemployment negativ More fossil plants, more imports negativ Costs for CO2 certificates negativ Investments of electricity companies positiv
Hungary Present 4 NPP s uprated from 440 MW to 500 MW With the need to build about 6000 MWe of new generating capacity by 2030, new nuclear plants are under consideration, two 1000 MWe units for the Paks site are proposed the first to be operating after 2020, the second about 2025 Early in 2009 parliament gave preliminary approval to this by 330 votes to 6, though some foreign investment would be needed Paks expects to issue a tender in 2011, with decision in 2012 and construction over late this decade Paks is considering four reactor types: Areva's EPR, Areva-Mitsubishi Atmea 1, the AES-2006 from Atomstroyexport Westinghouse AP1000. No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans
Italy Italy shut down four operating nuclear power reactors following the Chernobyl accident (Capacity 1423MWe) However 10% of its electricity is from importes nuclear power from France and Switzerland After Fukushima Italy reversed all plans for to built new NPP s In 2005 Electricité de France and Enel signed a memorandum of understanding to give Enel 12.5% share (some 200 MWe) from the new Flamanville-3 EPR nuclear reactor (1650 MWe) in France, and potentially another 1000 MWe from the next five units built. In 2004 it bought 66% of Slovenske Electrarne (SE) with its four VVER 440/V213 Bohunice and Mochovce reactors there. Enel's subsequent investment plan approved in 2005 involves EUR 1.88 billion investment to increase SE generating capacity, including EUR 1.6 billion for completion of Mochovce units 3 & 4-942 MWe gross - by 2011-12. On June 13, 2011 Italian population voted 94,05% vs 5,95% against nuclear power (ATW July 436) Major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans
Netherlands Nuclear energy is seen as an important cornerstone in an affordable, low carbon energy mix. The government encourages the market to build nuclear power plants, of course within crisp and clear requirements for safety, and management and disposal of radioactive waste. This vision is in line with the approach in the UK, France, Sweden and Finland. The phase-out of nuclear in Germany can give impetus to more capacity in the Netherlands.
Netherlands In September 2008 Delta (50% owner of Borssele) announced that to build a second unit at Borssele, of 1000-1600 MWe. In June 2009 it embarked upon seeking preliminary approvals for it. Plans are to start building a 1600-2500 MWe plant using MOX fuel during this decade In 2009 German utility RWE agreed to buy shares for EUR 8.35 billion and announced to build new nuclear capacity in Netherlands. Delta, one of the owners of the Borssele nuclear power plant, started the licensing procedure for a new built of 2000 MW. The environmental impact assessment is ongoing, and the license application is expected in 2012. The new government is positive about nuclear energy for the near and the long term. It plans to grant the license in 2014. Commissioning is expected around 2019-2010. Delta has initiated cooperation with EdF to finance and build the plant No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans
Poland Poland's largest power group announced in January 2009 plans to build two nuclear power plants by 2020, with a total capacity of 3,000 MWe First site will be at Zarnowiec about 40 km north of Gdanks, two more sites under consideration In November 2009 France and Poland signed a joint declaration on energy, environment and climate that calls for France to assist Poland in the construction of nuclear power plants. Poland has recently submitted documents to Germany about their future nuclear program (Energiemonitor 40/2011) No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans NUCNET 207!!!!! ATW 4/2010, p 285
Baltic States In February 2007 the three Baltic states and Poland agreed to build two new nuclear plant there, initially with 1600 MWe each (3200MWe) Lithuania as host would have 34% of the project and Poland, Latvia and Estonia 22% each. At least one unit of the project is expected to be operating by 2015. Total cost would be some EUR 6 billion. In July 2008 the Lithuanian government decided together with several energy companies from Latvia, Estonia and Poland two new 3200-3400 MWe nuclear power plant. Lithuania wants at least a 34% share of the new plants (1090-1160 MWe), Poland shares 1000 MWe, while Latvia and Estonia shares 400-600 MWe each, a call for tender is under preparation No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans
Russia-Kaliningrad (Baltic Enclave) Russia s Rosatom builds two NPP (1300 MWe each) in the Kaliningrad enclave One NPP to supply the private sector and industry in KG Second NPP to export electricy to the Baltic States, Bjelorussia as well as to Poland Rosatom presently is involved in 10 national and 21 international projects*: 4 NPPs in India 4 NPP s in Turkey 2 NPP s in Bulgaria,2 NPP s in Ukraina 1 NPP in Armenia, 2 NPP s in Bjelorussia, 2 NPP s in Vietnam, 2 NPP s in China, 2 NPP s in Bangladesh (total 21 units) *ATW11/2011p 626
Romania Romania operates two CANDU recators with a total capacity of 1310 MWe In 2002 efforts got under way to resume work on Cernavoda unit 3, and SNN commissioned a feasibility study from Ansaldo, AECL and KHNP (S.Korea) in 2003. In August 2004 the government advertised for companies interested in completing Cernavoda unit 3 through a public-private partnership arrangement. In November 2008 an investment agreement was signed between SNN, with 51% of the project, and Enel, CEZ, GDF Suez, RWE Power (each 9.15%), Iberdrola (6.2%) and ArcelorMittal Galati (6.2%) No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans
Slovak Republic In October 2004 the government approved Italian ENEL's bid to acquire 66% of SE as part of its privatisation process. ENEL's subsequent investment plan approved in 2005 involves EUR 1.88 billion investment to increase generating capacity, including EUR 1.6 billion for completion of Mochovce units 3 & 4-942 MWe gross. In January 2006 capacity uprate at Mochovce 1 & 2 in 2007 and a further 18 MWe by 2012, and a 120 MWe (gross) uprate of Bohunice 3 & 4 by 2010. After approval power was increased by 7% at Mochovce 1 & 2 in June 2008, to 470 MWe gross.
Slovak Republic Plans for Bohunice 5 (V3) announced in April 2008: a 1000-1600 MWe, using Western technology to enable MOX use. The formal joint venture agreement was signed in May 2009. Financing is to be finalised in 2011 and construction is planned to start in 2013, the expected cost being EUR 3.3 billion for a 1200 MWe unit. An 18-month feasibility study will be followed by calling tenders for one or two PWR units. Areva and Westinghouse are considered the main contenders No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans
Slovenia Slovenia operates a 696 MWe Westinghouse NPP Krsko jointly owned by Croatia. Entering commercial operation in 1983. In 2001 its steam generators were replaced and the plant was uprated 6% then and 3% subsequently Its operational life was designed to be 40 years, but a 20-year extension is being sought. A further Krsko unit is under consideration, of up to 1600 MWe. An application towards a second reactor at the Krsko nuclear power plant was submitted to the country's ministry of economy by GEN Energija in January 2010. It would be built from 2020-25, with cost estimated at up to EUR 5 billion, and fully owned by Slovenia Postponement for future nuclear plans due to Fukushima
Spain Spain operates 8 NPPs with a total capacity of 7448 MWe Spain is notable for power plant uprates. It has a program to add 810 MWe (11%) to its nuclear capacity through upgrading its nine reactors by up to 13%. For instance, the Almarez nuclear plant is being boosted by more than 5% at a cost of US$ 50 million. Some 519 MWe of the overall increase is already in place. Cofrentes was uprated 2% in 1988, another 2.2% in 1998, 5.6% in 2002 and 1.9% in 2003, taking it to 112% of original capacity. Tentative plans will take it to 120% later in the decade. Licence renewal for the Santa Maria de Garona plant came up for review in 2009, and in June the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN) recommended that a 10-year extension be granted, to 2019 Presently no plans for new NPP s, but life extension for 10 years for 4 existing NPP s
Sweden Sweden operates 10 NPPs with a total capacity of 9399 MWe Utilities expand nuclear capacity to replace the 1200 MWe lost in closure of Barsebäck 1 & 2. By the end of 2008, some 1050 MWe had been added to the ten surviving reactors. Ringhals applied for a major uprate on the 915 MWe unit 3, 2008 to operate at 1050 MWe. A further uprate to 1105 MWe is envisaged. Ringhals BWR unit 1 30 MWe uprate was completed in 2007 Ringhals 4 had a 30 MWe uprate to 935 MWe following replacement of its low pressure turbines in 2007, a further uprate of 240 MWe is planned. The total uprate for Ringhals plant over 2006-11 is likely to be more than 400 MWe. At Forsmark a 30 MWe uprate was performed Oskarshamn 2 uprate from 613 to 840 MWe (38%) and extend its life to 60 years Oskarshamn 3 reactor, +250 MWe to 1450 MWe net as well as a plant's life extension to 60 years No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans, Sweden does not consider any nuclear phase-out
Nuclear Power in Switzerland 5 Nuclear Power Plants (3220 MWe) KKL Leibstadt (1984) 1165 MW e KKB-I Beznau (1969) 365 MW e KKB-II Beznau (1971) 365 MW e KKG Gösgen (1979) 970 MW e KKM Mühleberg (1971) 373 MW e 1-2-new NPP to replace the old reactors
Switzerland Work on projects for new NPPs stopped after Fukushima accident Swiss Federal government proposed phase-out of nuclear for the long-term, keeping existing NPP running as long as safe operation is assured. Lower house of parliament (Nationalrat) supported phase-out; upper house (Ständerat) will decide before end of the year Afterwards, next step will be the implementation of the decision into the nuclear energy law. Question: No new nuclear at all, or new nuclear only with advanced technology? What is advanced? Open question also: What are the alternatives to replace 40 % nuclear electricity in CH? Import, Gas, Renewables?
UK In 2008 announced that construction of new nuclear plants could start in mid 2013. Four of six NPPs could be in operation by 2020 First EPR site a Hinkley Point/Somerset, application on July 29,2011 (NUCNET 177) On June 23, 2011 the national energy plan defines 8 NPP sites at Bradwell, Hartlepool, Heysham Hinkley Point Oldbury Sellafield Sizewell and Wylfa, all already existing sites of GCR NPP The first new NPP will be located at Wylfa, second new NPP at Oldbury site, at each site capacity of 3000 MWe planned Westinghouse announced that six major European utilities were providing resources and sharing the costs of taking the AP1000 reactor design through the pre-licensing process In summary UK plans 12 NPP s on those 8 sites up to 2025 with investments of 100 Mrd. (ATW July p.435) No major influence from Fukushima on future nuclear plans, 6 to 10 new NPP s planned, some of them with investment form German utilities (Eon)
IAEA Statement IAEA General Director 27.July 2011 NUCNET 164 IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano said in a speech that the Fukushima-Daiichi accident was one of the most serious and complex disasters which human beings have ever had to deal with Despite the accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant global use of nuclear power will continue to grow in the coming decades and it will remain an important option for many countries, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said.
Conclusions Europe was in a renaissance situation before Fukushima, in several countries (i.e.germany) this has a strong effect on the future energy policy However in most of the NPP countries this accident had little impact on the long term energy plans except Germany, Italy and Switzerland There may be delays due to the financial situation, lack of heavy industry, loss of knowledge and qualified nuclear experts Hydro and Nuclear are the only choice for base-load electricty in Europe, if the CO2 targets are kept in mind, however all energy sources must be developed in parallel under the same legal, political, economic and environmental conditions