Social benefits of modern poultry meat production in the European Union

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1 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production in the European Union Harald von Witzke HFFA e. V., Berlin Wien,

2 Acknowledgement This presentation is based on: H. von Witzke, H.-W. Windhorst and S. Noleppa, Societal benefits of modern poultry meat production in Germany and the EU, HFFA Research Paper 08/2017 available from

3 Poultry meat and the world food markets The more than a century-long trend of declining agricultural prices has come to an end. The turn of the millennium also marks a mega-trend reversal in international agricultural markets.

4 Poultry meat and the world food markets Since 2000: Upward trend in prices. This may be expected to continue. 2-4% annually. Reason: Global demand growth is outpacing the growth in supply.

5 Poultry meat and the world food markets Limited supply growth: Land is limited Water is becoming ever scarcer Climate change acts to reduce production Productivity growth is declining Increasing price of oil.

6 Oil price (US$/FASS) and FAO Food Price Index, Ölpreis FAOFPI

7 Poultry meat and the world food markets Continuing rapid demand growth (120% between 2000 and 2050): Population growth (10 billion by 2050) Per capita consumption growth Both almost exclusively in developing and newly industrializing countries and for livestock products and in particular for poultry meat.

8 Year Growth in global poultry meat consumption, Total meat (1000 t) Poultry meat (1000 t) ,414 10, Share of poultry meat (%) ,439 29, ,291 78, , , ,949.

9 Agriculture and the environment The rapidly growing world food needs may be met by expanding the acreage or by producing more on the land being farmed already.

10 Agriculture and the environment As the lobal land suitable for farming is limited, most of the production growth must come from productivity growth. FAO: 90% of future production gtowth by means of productivity growth; 10% at the cost of acreage expansion.

11 Agriculture and the environment Agriculture contributes around 24% to global warming through greenhouse gas emissions. Aboult half of this is caused by farming on the presently used acreage, and by expansion of the global agricultural acreage.

12 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production Research question: What would happen if the EU would discontinue modern poultry meat production? Focus on chicken and turkey. Alternatives: extensive production (literature) organic production (KTBL). Assumtion: 100% switch to one of the two alternatives.

13 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production Extensive production: Slow growing breeds Lower feed efficiency More space per animal Higher labor input. Organic production: Essentially the same but effects are more pronounced.

14 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production This would act to raise EU production costs. EU supply would decline. EU poultry producers income would decline. Domestic EU production would be replaced in part by foreign production.

15 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production EU feeding efficiency is high. Av. feeding efficiency in ROW: About 20% lower than in the EU.

16 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production Total production cost increase with alternative production systems (% per kg lw) Production system Extensive Organic Chicken meat Turkey meat

17 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production EU production change under alternative production systems (1,000 t) Production system Extensive Organic Chicken meat -2,184-5,858 Turkey meat Total -2,535-6,848

18 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production Price changes under alternative production systems (%) Production system extensive organic Chicken meat Turkey meat

19 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production Demand change in the EU under alternative production systems (1,000 t) Production system Extensive Organic Chicken meat Turkey meat Total

20 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production EU income changes under alternative production systems (million ) Production system Extensive Organic Producers -2,910-8,298 Up- and downstream sectors -2,735-7,800 Total -5,644-16,079

21 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production: Environmental effects Production in EU is declining and increasing in ROW. Feed use in EU is declining by less than it is going up in ROW. Reason: EU feed efficiency is higher than in ROW.

22 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production: Environmental effects The replacement of EU by ROW production causes an additional expansion of the global agricultural acreage. Consequences: Additional loss of natural habitats around the globe. Additional greenhouse gas emissions. Additional loss of biodiversty. Additional agricultural water consumption.

23 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production: Environmental effects Changes in feed use under alternative production systems (1,000t). Production system Extensive Organic EU domestic feed use -3,208-11,366 ROW feed use 4,845 13,200

24 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production: Environmental effects Aditional expansion of the global agricultural acreage = Additional loss in natural habitats Production system Extensive Organic 1000 ha

25 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production: Environmental effects Additional greenhouse gas emissions Production system Extensive Organic Million t CO

26 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production: Environmental effects Additional climate cost ( 72 per t of CO2) Production system Extensive Organic Climate cost (billion )

27 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production: Environmental effects Additional global biodiversity loss in rainforest eqivalents (1,000 ha) Production system Extensive Organic 1,000 ha

28 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production: Environmental effects Change in water use (billion cubic meters) Production system Extensive Organic EU ROW Balance

29 Social benefits of modern poultry meat production: Environmental effects Change in Water use: Extensive production: Water emptying from the Danube River into the Black Sea about in about 10 days. Organic production: Water emptying from the Danube River in into the Black Sea in about 30 days.

30 Conclusion The rapidly growing world food needs must be satisfied for the most part by means of productivity growth. This includes animal husbandry in general and poultry meat production in particular. Replacing modern poultry meat production systems by extensive or by organic production would yield major economic losses to poultry meat producers and the up- and downstream industries.

31 Conclusion The environmental damage to society at large of moving from modern production systems to alternative systems far outweigh the purely economic losses. The corollary of this result is: Modern poultry meat production s environmental benefits to society are huge and they far outweigh the economic benefits to the entire value chain of poultry meat production.

32 Thank you for your attention. Additional information at:

World Agriculture, Food Security, and Global Warming. Bratislava, October 2010

World Agriculture, Food Security, and Global Warming Harald von Witzke Humboldt University of Berlin Bratislava, October 2010 Outline 1. The end of the Agricultural Treadmill 2. Prospects for world food