RECENT INITIATIVES IN SYSTEM OF COLLECTION OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS IN INDIA

Transcription

1 RECENT INITIATIVES IN SYSTEM OF COLLECTION OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS IN INDIA Shobha Marwah Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Deptt of Agril & Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India 1. BACKGROUND This Department is implementing Central Sector Scheme on Improvement of Agricultural Statistics with 100% financial assistance with components on Timely Reporting Scheme (TRS), Establishment of an Agency for Reporting of Agricultural Statistics (EARAS), Improvement of Crops Statistics (ICS) and Crop Estimation Survey of Fruits, Vegetables (CES-F&V). The system of collection of agricultural statistics has been reviewed at various levels from time to time. The National Statistical Commission expressed its concern on the system of collection of area statistics and yield estimates and recommended that TRS and EARAS should be regarded as programmes of National importance and the Govt. of India at the highest level should prevail upon the state governments to give due priority to them, deploy adequate resources for the purpose and ensure proper conduct of field operations in time. The Steering committee on Agriculture and Allied Sectors chaired by Prof. Hanumantha Rao for formulation of 11 th Five Year Plan also recommended for thorough review of the scheme for bringing about a lasting improvement in the basic system of agricultural statistics. The Hon ble PM had also observed in the Conference of State Ministers of Statistics held on that the administrative statistical system has been deteriorating in certain sectors such as agriculture, labour, industry and commerce. In this context, a meeting was taken by Chairman, NSC on with the officers of the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation to discuss the functioning of TRS and ICS Schemes, possibility of re-engineering ICS scheme, ground truthing of remote sensing data on area and crop estimates. It was decided in the meeting that a High Level Committee may be set up to review the current methodology used in TRS, EARAS and ICS to estimate area under various crops, yield and production. Accordingly, Expert Committee was set up by Department on The composition and Terms of Reference of the Committee are given in the Report. 2. EXISTING SYSTEM Area Statistics: The basic data on land use and crop wise area are compiled by Patwaris in 20% of villages (called TRS villages). The work is required to be completed and the data is transmitted to higher levels by specified deadlines. The conduct of girdawari, completeness of village records, and accuracy of village records is verified in a sub sample of TRS villages independently by officials of FOD, NSSO and designated state. The results on inspection are published by FOD every year. Under FASAL, SAC provides advance estimates of area for major crops thrice during each season. 141

2 Yield Statistics: Yield estimates for all important crops are based on crop cutting surveys on a sample basis. Estimates for several minor crops are based on oral enquiry. These surveys are done by state officials using prescribed, uniform procedures for selection of plots and for conduct of crop cutting and estimation of yields. The observance of these procedures is supervised in a sample of the plots selected for CCEs in the ICS villages independently by FOD and state supervisors. Special sample surveys are also conducted for horticulture crops. 3. OBSERVATIONS ON EXISTING SCHEMES The discussions on the working of the present system highlighted various technical, organizational and managerial problems faced in implementing them. Detailed analysis of results of inspections of a sub-sample of ICS villages are collated and published by FOD in their annual reports. These inspection reports give an idea to which prescribed procedures and time schedules for area and yield estimates have been observed by state primary workers. These aspects on working of schemes are highlighted but are not acted on. NSC has emphasized the need for states to take steps to improve the existing system using patwaris and to upgrade the status and professionalism of state statistical organizations. The Commission also suggested exploring possibilities of using remote sensing. The Directors of state bureaus as members of the committee made presentations on the organization, personnel and operational problems faced by them in implementing the existing schemes. Presentations were also made by FOD on the working of these schemes based on the observations of their field supervisors. The analysis of detailed data from inspection of area estimates and conduct of CCEs by FOD and state officials published in the Annual reports of FOD for several recent years was also presented to assess the nature and extent of deficiencies in the working of TRS and CCES. Presentations by Space application centre on (a) the current state of RS technology, the range of crops for which estimates are made, actual advance estimates for selected crops provided to the Ministry, and basis for their validation; (b) the current state of their work on estimating yields using RS; and (c) the potential for and limitations of increasing the crop coverage and spatial disaggregation of estimates and overcoming cloud cover problems based on the continuing improvements in RS technology. Presentations were also made by DE&S officials on their experience regarding the completeness, timeliness and reliability of data sent in by the states, and how they try to take care of the deficiencies based on other independent sources, including FASAL. Detailed analysis was made of data in FOD reports regarding (a) completion of girdawari and timely submission of returns; (b) the completeness and accuracy of area estimates in village records; and (c) incidence of errors in conduct of CCEs area as reported by FOD and state supervisors. 4. SPECIAL SURVEY BY EXPERT COMMITTEE A special survey of 102 villages was also conducted comparing area under different crops grown on sample plots in recorded by FOD supervisors in ICS villages and village khasra in non ICS villages with information obtained from farmers on the crops they actually grew on these plots in that year. 5. OBSRVATIONS MADE BY THE COMMITTEE: The findings on Area estimates show that: 142

3 a) 50-60% of ICS villages had completed girdawari at the time of inspection; the proportion is generally much higher according to state supervisors. b) The majority of both in the central and state samples villages did not submit TRS returns on time; c) More than half the ICS villages had not submitted them at all ; state supervisors report this proportion to be much smaller d) Sizeable errors of omission and commission in figures of crops and areas recorded in the girdawari. e) These errors in area recording is also confirmed by the special survey of 102 villages, their incidence being much larger in the ICS compared to non ics villages. f) Significant variations in direction and magnitude of differences across states and between central and state samples g) Data generated by inspection reports are inadequate to estimate the margins of error Findings on Yield estimates show that: a) Yield estimates from central and state samples differ both in respect of crops and across sates; b) Differences are also seen between estimates of DES and those obtained from GCES. c) Direction and magnitudes vary across states and crops. d) A major issue relates to the extent to which functionaries responsible for conducting the experiments are able to keep track of the progress of cultivation and readiness to harvest on the selected sample plots in a situation where sowing and harvesting dates even for the same crop variety, in a given region and more so when different varieties, are being cultivated. e) Several sources of error: non observance of procedures for plot selection, demarcating boundaries of sample plots/sub plots and measurement of area, premature harvest, lack of standard measuring and weighing equipment, unsupervised drainage experiments. f) Number of experiments (800,000) much much larger than (173000) needed to get state (and in some cases district level) estimates with a reasonable margin of sampling error; g) Expansion of sample size under states pressure to get sub district level yield estimates for insurance purposes greatly aggravates the difficulty of ensuring proper conduct and supervision of experiments 143

4 h) Problems greatly compounded because of fragmentation of responsibility for conduct as well as supervision of CCEs which is entirely the responsibility of states. i) The supervison reports are inadequate basis for estimating sampling errors of area: the sample is too small and inspectors of the two sub-samples do not follow prescribed procedures with equal vigour. In the case of yield, supervisors check only observance of procedure; they do not provide independent estimates of yield. In any case non sampling errors are far more important. j) Though these problems are highlighted in annual reports of NSSO, FOD, administrative agencies have paid very little attention to findings of NSSO. The deficiencies in the current system of both area and yield estimation under TRS/EARAS are therefore subject to non-sampling errors whose magnitude is likely to be much larger than sampling error. The present system, which depends on data collected from 1,20,000 villages mostly by untrained, loaded with numerous other functions, and answerable to diverse agencies for whom ensuring reliability and timely supply of agricultural data is of low priority. The system is too large to manage. SASAs are seriously underfunded: understaffed in terms of size and professional quality. Being generally a subordinate status in the administrative structure departments, they cannot function as autonomous, professional organizations. 6. RECOMMENDATIONS MADE BY THE COMMITTEE The Committee had submitted its final report to the government on 11 th February, The Committee recommended exploring ways in which the scale of primary data collection needed for getting reliable area and yield estimates can be made more manageable and which reduces the scope for human error. The restructuring institutional arrangements to address the following problems: a) Devising measures to improve quality of data generated by system needed for different purposes at different levels of government. b) Ensuring adequate and properly trained staff for collection of data at ground level. c) Vesting the responsibility for supervision and validation of data with an organization equipped and enabled to function autonomously and maintain high standards of professional integrity. d) Reducing the size of sample by improvement in their design to make the task of organizing and supervising primary data collection without sacrificing the level of accuracy needed for different purposes at different levels of government The strategy of restructuring recommended by the Committee is to distinguish between the need for (a) reliable and timely flow of data on area and production on a regular basis for every crop season, year after year; and (b) requirements for various special purposes such as crop insurance. The function of the restructured system should be strictly limited to the former. The Committee is of the view that reliable estimates within acceptable margins of error (sampling and non sampling) can be achieved with improved sampling techniques, including stratification. For national and state level estimates the required number of villages is much smaller than the number covered by TRS/EARAS. A smaller sample will be far more manageable in terms of organization, requirements of trained personnel and proper 144

5 supervision at reasonable, affordable cost. A more practical course would be to focus on measures that would substantially reduce the scale of effort changes that would ensure meeting the data requirements for advance forecasts, for getting reliable estimates of output of major crops individually and for broad categories of other minor crops including fruits and vegetables and for government policy making at the national and state levels. The requirements can be met from a much smaller number of villages than those covered by the TRS/EARAS. The responsibility for supervision and validation of primary data must be vested with the state statistical authority equipped and empowered to function autonomously and maintain high standards of professional integrity. The NSC recommendation to upgrade the status of state statistical authority in the bureaucratic structure by giving it a distinct status is a critical pre condition for reform. 7. CREATION OF NATIONAL CROP STATISTICS CENTRE: The Committee recommended to create the National Crop Statistics Centre (NCSC) as an autonomous professionally run organization fully funded by the Centre to design, organize and supervise the generation of area and yield estimates at the state and national levels. The mandate of the Centre would include (a) evolving sampling design and field procedures; (c) arranging for independent inspection of field work under the scheme ; (d) review the reports to ensure data quality and timeliness and (e) take such action as may be necessary to correct deficiencies. Field work will be done by trained staff in the state bureaus appointed and dedicated exclusively to carry out the programme decided by NCSC their cost being borne entirely out of the central budget. The Governing Body of NCSC would be chaired by a person of high professional standing with firsthand experience in design, organization and conduct of sample surveys of agriculture and comprising of: 3 or 4 external members with expertise and experience in application of statistical techniques for collection of agricultural data using sample surveys and image analysis; Senior professional of the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture responsible for collation of basic data and crop forecasts, and From the Agricultural Statistics Wing of the NSSO; 3-4 representatives of State DES in rotation. 8. RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING REMOTE SENSING: The Committee also recommended the expansion of the present Remote Sensing programme and to provide reliable and validated in-season forecasts and end-season estimates of area for a wider range of crops at the state and national levels; as well as comprehensive and detailed plot level data of land use and crops at the village level. For crops that cannot be covered by RS, and those (like vegetables, fruits, and cotton) that are harvested, Committee has recommended to adopt a different getting detailed estimates of both area and yield (based on 145

6 stratified sampling of territorial units, and using a combination of sample surveys of households growing them to assess quantities harvested). The proposed Remote Sensing unit would be an integral part of the NCSC and will work under the guidance of its Governing Council. It should provide independent estimates of land use and crop area in the villages selected for NCSC s field survey for a rigorous comparison of RS estimates with estimates based on plot wise data collected in these villages. In addition it should be responsible for developing improved techniques of image analysis and validation; arranging for training of personnel in the state and regional remote sensing centres; providing technical advice and analysis needed for informed decisions on the design of satellites and hardware to meet the data needs of users at affordable cost; and help in planning strategies for expanding the scope and scale of RS techniques. In all these activities, the unit is expected to function under the overall policy guidance of the NCSC governing council and work in close collaboration with the Ministry, NRSC and agricultural research organizations. 9. PRESENT STATUS REGARDING SETTING UP OF NATIONAL CROP STATISTICS CENTRE (NCSC) To look into the implementation of the recommendations of the Expert Committee, the Government constituted a Steering Committee under the chairmanship of Special Secretary, DAC to implement the recommendations of the Committee. One of the major recommendations of the Committee was to set up of a National Crop Statistics Centre (NCSC) as an autonomous, professional organization in the Ministry of Agriculture of the Government of India to provide reliable and timely data needed for monitoring agricultural trends and for policy making at the state and national levels. The terms of the reference of the Steering Committee are: i. Prepare road map for setting up proposed National Crop Statistics Centre (NCSC) including Remote Sensing Unit. ii. Suggestions for generation of reliable estimates of crop area and yield at State and National level. iii. Work out financial implications of proposed system and procedures. iv. Make recommendation on any other issue relating to implementation of recommendations of Expert Committee for Improvement of agricultural statistics. The Steering Committee also gave its final observation to Department for setting up of NCSC. For initiating action for setting up of NCSC on the recommendations of Prof Vaidyanathan Committee, it was decided in the meeting held under the Chairmanship of Secretary (A&C) on 11 th August, 2011 to take up the matter with IASRI to assess the adequate sample size for generating state and national level estimates for 27 crops. It was also decided that final decision on setting up of NCSC is required to be taken only after sample size suggested by IASRI is available. The sample size suggested by IASRI will be a determining factor for accuracy, timeliness and reliability of Agricultural Statistics vis-à-vis present day sample size of 1,20,000 villages. Based on the decisions held in the meeting, Director, IASRI was requested on to formulate a proposal for taking up the exercise for determining optimum sample size of 146

7 villages. The list of 27 crops for which AS Division releases advance and final estimates was sent to IASRI. Director, IASRI vide his letter dated requested to provide the following data from ICS scheme in digital form for which a request has already been made to DG, NSSO: Total/average yield (green-at the time harvest) corresponding to Crop Cutting Experiments (CCFs) for above mentioned crops Total average yield (dry) corresponding to CCEs for above mentioned crops Village-wise total area under above-mentioned crops for the randomly selected villages. District-wise total area under above mentioned crops for different States Sampling Design adopted along with sample sizes at different stages of sampling Total number of districts growing a particular crop in a State Total number of villages growing a particular crop in each of the randomly selected districts Total number of cultivators fields growing a particular crop in each of the randomly selected villages. For timely completion of study, the matter was discussed with Dr. U C sood, Head, Sample Survey Division, IASRI. He stated that they would be able indicate the time frame only after receipt of data and they need to know the procedure such as number of states covered for advance as well as final estimates for determining sample size. A meeting was held last week of October, 2011 with Dr. U. C. Sud, Head, Sample Survey Division, IASRI, Dr. Tyagi, IASRI, to review data requirements, time frame and future strategy of IASRI to conduct the study. In the meeting Dr. Sud stated that data available under ICS is not sufficient to determine the sample size and also to develop the methodology for generating estimates of crop area and crop yields at state and national level. Hence, he requested to provide district level data of 27 major crops. As per their requirement, data has been provided to IASRI. IASRI would be sending data requirements in a couple of days. Now it is understood that IASRI would be submitting the proposal to DES for taking up the study shortly. 147