Climate change adaptation in Europe EEA Impact Assessment, EU White Paper Comparison EU National Adaptation Strategies

Transcription

1 Climate change adaptation in Europe EEA Impact Assessment, EU White Paper Comparison EU National Adaptation Strategies Rob Swart 20 November 2009 Europe s vulnerable areas Main biogeographic regions of Europe (EEA member countries) 1

2 EEA 2008 indicator report: potential impacts Atmosphere and climate Cryosphere (glaciers, snow and ice) Marine biodiversity and ecosystems Water quantity Freshwater quality and biodiversity Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity Soil Agriculture and forestry Human health Economic consequences of climate change Adaptation CC Impact assessment at European scale land use dynamics model land use transport network zoning maps land demand land use scenarios exposure vulnerability socio-economic scenarios hazard hydrological model risk climate models high-resolution climate scenarios Source: Carlo Lavalle, 2

3 Soil erosion by water About 115 million hectares, 12% of the total EU-land area, are subject to water erosion Soil erosion risk assessment for Europe for the year 2000 Projected changes in climate, with increased variations in rainfall pattern and intensity, will make soils more susceptible to erosion past future Water retention Water retention capacity and soil moisture content will be affected by rising temperatures and by decline in soil organic matter due to both climate change and land-management changes Modelled daily soil moisture 15 July 2008 Projected summer soil moisture changes for Reduction in summer soil moisture over most Europe, significant reductions in the Mediterranean region, and increases in the north-east (by ) past future 3

4 Growing season for agricultural crops The lengths of the growing season of several agricultural crops has increased in the North, favouring the introduction of new species Locally in the south there is a shortening of growing season, with higher risk of damages from delayed spring frost past Rate of change of crop growing season length A further lengthening of the growing season is projected In western and southern Europe the limited water availability and high temperature will hinder plant growth future Agrophenology Flowering and maturity of several crops now occurs two or three weeks earlier than in the past past Change rates of flowering date for winter wheat The shortening of the phenological phases is expected to continue future 4

5 Grapevine phenology Increase in wine quality and alcohol level has been observed Potential alcohol level at harvest for Riesling in Alsace (France) Further moving forward of phenological phases, with increases in frost risk and shortening of the ripening period and further expansion of wine production areas northward and uphill Further increase in alcohol level, and decreasing acidity of wine past future Crop-yield variability Since the beginning of the 21 st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme weather events past Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat More variable crop yields because extreme weather events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude future 5

6 Water requirement Between 1975 and 2007 clear trends, a significant increase in water demand (50-70%) occurred in Mediterranean areas, and large decreases in northern and central Europe Rate of change of meteorological water balance Further increase in the demand for water in agriculture, potentially increasing competition for water between sectors and uses past future European CC Adaptation Challenges 2007: Green Paper, 2009: White Paper, 2013: EU Adaptation Strategy Climate-proof EU policies and Directives Integrate adaptation into EU s funding programmes Consider new policies, e.g. spatial planning as an integration tool Integrate adaptation in EU external relations (developing countries) Enhancing the knowledge base, e.g. regarding regional scale and information on costs Involvement of civil society, business sector organisations and enhanced information exchange Support member states 6

7 White Paper Actions Agriculture and Forestry Ensure that measures for adaptation and water management are embedded in rural development national strategies and programmes for Consider how adaptation can be integrated into the 3 strands of rural development and give adequate support for sustainable production including how the CAP contributes to the efficient use of water in agriculture Examine the capacity of the Farm Advisory System to reinforce training, knowledge and adoption of new technologies that facilitate adaptation Update forestry strategy and launch debate on options for an EU approach on forest protection and forest information systems Comparative analysis National Adaptation Strategies Partnership for European Environmental Research SYKE CEH ALTERRA CEMAGREF NERI UFZ JRC-IES 7

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10 Conclusions comparative analysis The number of national adaptation strategies in Europe is increasing rapidly; Policy relevant scientific knowledge about vulnerability and adaptation options is still scarce; Communication and awareness raising is important but methods are yet to be developed (including uncertainties); Political institutional problems may be a greater challenge then finding the appropriate technical solutions; Concrete plans, mechanisms and indicators for implementation, evaluation and revision of the national adaptation strategies are still to be developed. Regional adaptation strategies in Europe Sometimes integrated with mitigation Usually metropolitan areas or provinces/states Usually in countries with a National Adaptation Strategy 10

11 Commission proposes Guidelines for Strategies Includes do s & don ts for each step Special challenges in European Agricultural Adaptation Synergies between adaptation and mitigation (biofuels!) Influence of climate change impacts elsewhere on global trade (food, feed, fiber) For small temperature increases some regions may benefit, but on the long term impacts are projected to be negative 11

12 Thanks for your attention!! Some new policy-relevant FP7 projects ( ) RESPONSES: New mitigation and adaptation response options Coordinator: IVM; PBL in consortium MEDIATION & CLIMSAVE: Integrated methodology for assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation options Alterra coordinator of MEDIATION, partner in CLIMSAVE CIRCLE network Aligning and networking national and regional research programmes and funding organisations Coordinator: Lisbon University, Knowledge for Climate in consortium 12

13 Drivers and facilitating factors Key drivers for adaptation policies Key facilitating factors Extreme weather events/impacts Economic costs of inaction NGO advocacy Examples from other countries UNFCCC Media EU policies Scientific research Private sector interests Recognising opportunities E.g. characterizing future changes priority vulnerable sectors risks or also opportunities Political will Export of knowledge (Netherlands) Active people with expertise taking lead Sufficient human and other resources available Suitable timing Good cooperation between ministries Forestry (Sweden, Finland) Compatibility with other policies Agriculture (Sweden, Germany) adaptation local, national or global problem? overarching paradigm/risk philosophy Sufficient knowledge available National Adaptation Strategy Very different balance of drivers and facilitating factors in different EU-countries Top-down versus bottom-up Coordinating, harmonizing and integrating patchwork of local and sectoral initiatives past top-down, science driven local action UNFCCC, IPCC Examples other EU policy countries Cost of inaction Weather extremes participatory evaluation of adaptation options Media, NGOs local/sectoral vulnerability to climate variability Opportunities National Adaptation Strategy bottom-up, sector-policy driven future global national local Source: adapted from Dessai and Hulme,

14 Can research keep up with accelerated policy development? Stage I: Climate system emphasis (1980s-) Policy-relevant Stage II: Mitigation and national impacts scientific, technical and (1990s/2000s-) economic knowledge about vulnerability and Stage III: Local impacts, vulnerability and adaptation adaptation options is (2005-) still scarce Research focus I II III Vulnerability and adaptation research Impacts and mitigation research Climate system research Time General lessons learned across Europe Related to historical conditions and institutional development of the NAS Related to current and future conditions and developments external to the NAS Contributing significantly to achieving the NAS objectives STRENGTHS Targeted research programmes Planning for the implementation, monitoring and funding of adaptation Planned coordination between sectors and administrative levels OPPORTUNITIES Development and export of knowledge Spill-over of policy integration and multilevel governance for non-climate policies Hindering the achievement of the NAS objectives WEAKNESSES Lack of coordination between levels and sectors Lack of adequate stakeholder involvement Unclear responsibilities between administrative levels Lack of context-specific adaptation knowledge THREATS Cross-level conflicts Cross-sectoral conflicts Insufficient resources Lack of public support Impacts of global impacts (trade, migration, security) 14

15 CC Impact assessment at European scale land use dynamics model land use transport network zoning maps land demand land use scenarios exposure vulnerability socio-economic scenarios hazard hydrological model risk climate models high-resolution climate scenarios Source: Carlo Lavalle, Scientific support: the need for effective boundary work Objective: to enhance legitimacy and credibility boundary arrangements for science-policy interactions are required (Hoppe, 2008) Science Different functions: Drafting NAS with science input Coordination of research Advise or assessment Different solutions in different countries: Existing governmental institutions Existing scientific institutions Targeted boundary organizations Consultants Boundary organisation Society Policy Hoppe, R. (2008) Lost in translation? A boundary work perspective on making climate change governable essays for the Workshop 'Climate Change and Science Policy Interface' for the Dutch Knowledge for Climate Research Programme 15