Coping w it h climat e c ha nge

Transcription

1 Coping w it h climat e c ha nge How can we climate proof our fish production systems? 03 CO NS U LTAT I O N D R A F T

2 03 Coping wit h climat e change How can we climate proof our fish production systems? ABOUT T HIS DOCUMENT This briefing paper is part of a series aimed at providing accessible summaries of key issues for the fish food system. Combining empirical data summaries with informed opinion and perspective we hope that these papers will both inform and stimulate debate and dialogue among stakeholders. Each brief was prepared by the Fishing for a Future secretariat, drawing on opinions and analysis provided by an expert in the topic area; this paper was prepared with support from Dr E. Allison. Comments and critique are welcome and should be sent to bp.feedback@fishingfuture.org. CONT ENT Page CURRENT STAT E 1 How (by what mechanisms) is climate change expected to affect our fisheries and aquaculture production systems? How does this differ geographically and by production type? T rends and Expectat ions 4 What are the predicted effects of climate change on our fisheries and aquaculture food systems? How do these differ geographically and by sector? KEY UNCERTAINT IES 5 What are the key uncertainties concerning climate change impacts? How do these uncertainties differ by geographic region and sector? KEY ISSUES 6 What are the key issues that need to be addressed to help the fish food sector cope with climate change effects and why? SUCCESSES / POSIT IVE EXAMPLES 7 Are there any examples or promising approaches that illustrate the ways in which problems in this area have been successfully addressed? REFLECT IONS references 8

3 Ref. CURRENT STAT E How (by what mechanisms) is climate change expected to affect our fisheries and aquaculture production systems? How does this differ geographically and by production type? The Earth s atmosphere and oceans have been getting warmer since the mid 20th century due to increased greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity Global average surface t emperat ure increase above pre-indust rial levels ( o C) o C 1.5 o C Year Source: Schellnhuber et al. (2012) Effects > Melting polar ice caps > Rising sea levels > Warming sea surface temperatures > Shifts in ocean currents > Altered precipitation patterns with consequent effects on river flows, floodplain areas and lake levels > Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events > Increasing extent of de-oxygenated marine dead zones, and acidifying oceans RCP3PD likely below 2 C; medium chance to exceed 1.5 C Illustrative low-emission scenario with negative CO 2 emissions from upper half of literature range in 2 nd half of 21 st century Current pledges virtually certain to exceed 2 C; 50% chance above 3 C Stabilization at 50% chance to exceed 2 C Reference (close to SRES A1B) likely to exceed 3 C Zero or missing data IPCC SRES A1FI very likely to exceed 4 C Historical observations Global sudden stop to emissions in 2016 likely below 1.5 C Effect of current pledges Geophysical inertia KEY POINT T here is a 20 to 30 year commit ment to furt her warming even if fut ure emissions were cut to pre-indust rial levels from today. Adaptat ion to unavoidable change is needed now! 1

4 BRIEFING PAPER 03 / Coping wit h climat e change POTENTIAL PATHWAYS OF IMPACTS ON FISHERY SECTOR The changes in the biophysical environment are having and will have direct consequences for fishery sector productivity. Impacts on: Species composition G loba l warming Ocean currents ENSO Sea level rise Rainfall River flows Storm severity Storm frequency Acidification Effects on: Production Ecology Fishing & aquaculture operations Communities Livelihoods Production & yield Distribution Diseases Coral bleaching Calcification Safety & efficiency Infrastructure Loss/damage to assets Risk to health & life Displacement & conflict Wider society & economy Adaptation & mitigation costs Market impacts Modified from Badjeck et al. (2010) Vulnerability of national economies to potential climate change impacts on fisheries > Developing countries will be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on their fisheries and aquaculture sectors. Very low Low Moderate High No data Source: Allison et al. (2009) > Climate change is expected to have greater impact on countries where levels of hunger and malnutrition are already high and to disproportionately affect communities and regions already vulnerable to weather and climate extremes. 2

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6 BRIEFING PAPER 03 / Coping wit h climat e change T rends and Expectations What are the predicted effects of climate change on our fisheries and aquaculture food systems? How do these differ geographically and by sector? Ref TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND FISH PRODUCTION Mid Layer Dept h T emperat ure Change ( o C) Source: Merino et al. (2012) > Under a business-as-usual climate change emission scenario a recent study predicted: > a 6% potential increase in global fish production for larger bodied fish (>20cm length as adults) by 2050 and a 3.4% increase for smaller bodied (fishmeal) species. > A general trend of decreasing productive potential in the tropics and increasing production in temperate zones. > Increased productive potential in some West African countries and decreased in South and Southeast Asia. Fisheries Product ion (% Change) Source: Merino et al. (2012) > <-30 Source: Merino et al. (2012) KEY POINT T he warming oceans could produce eit her slight ly more or slight ly less fish t han t hey do today, depending on which predict ive modeling framework is adopt ed. 4

7 KEY UNCERTAINT IES What are the key uncertainties concerning climate change impacts? How do these uncertainties differ by geographic region and sector? Ref Different fisheries are project ed to show very different fat es, BUT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN > Coral reef-associated fisheries are expected to show major declines due to warming and acidification. > Eastward shifts in the distribution of optimal feeding grounds for tuna in the Pacific may shift the benefits of these fisheries from the Western to the Central Pacific. > For freshwater fisheries, shifts in patterns and quantities of precipitation are likely to be a major determinant of future fisheries production. T he Aquacult ure sector is likely to be most affect ed by climat e change t hrough four different, AND HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE, pat hways > Extreme events (droughts, floods, storms) affecting aquaculture production sites and infrastructure. > Rainfall affecting availability of surface freshwaters for fish culture. > Coastal oceanographic conditions that impact shellfish cultivation sites and cage aquaculture. (The impacts of ocean acidification may be particularly profound.) > Incidence and virulence of diseases caused by higher temperatures and physiological stress on cultured species. THE PREDICTIONS OF Ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs) REMAIN QUEST IONABLE > GCMs provide the physico-chemical environment and in some cases primary production fields, that are used to project changes in ecosystem processes that affect future fish production. > The spatial resolution of GCMs is too coarse (typically >1 latitude and longitude) to capture the processes that dominate the dynamics of the world s coastal and shelf regions, such as coastal upwelling and tidal mixing, juxtaposed with complex coastlines and bathymetry. > More spatially- and temporally-resolved frameworks are needed because of the significant contribution to global primary fish production made by coastal and shelf regions. Mal-adaptation IS DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE > Intense pressure on water resources means that the environmental flows required to sustain wild fisheries are likely to diminish. Adaptations to climate change, such as increased investment in irrigation and water infrastructure for coping with floods and droughts are all likely to negatively impact inland fisheries. > The fact that climate change is one of several interacting drivers of change makes predictive modeling of impacts dauntingly complex and the adoption of scenario approaches preferable. 5

8 BRIEFING PAPER 03 / Coping wit h climat e change KEY ISSUES What are the key issues that need to be addressed to help the fish food sector cope with climate change effects and why? Ref ADAPTATION MEASURES IN FISHERies AND AQUACULTURE > Adaptation measures will be necessary to maintain and expand the economic and nutrition contributions of fisheries and aquaculture in a changing climate. > There are a range of both technical and institutional adaptations that can be made to climate proof fish value chains in the face of climate change. > Diversify livelihoods > Install social safety nets > Exit the fishery > Improve public services access > Improve financial services access Social vulnerability of fishery- Health and nutrition of low income consumers dependent > Insurance schemes people > Early warning systems Social and physical > Disaster response plans capital of, and sup- > Vessel safety > Infrastructure relocation or reinforcement > Access higher-value, more diversified markets > Improve market information and access > Improve supply chains and supply port structures for, fishing-dependent people Income from fishing and the equity in its distribution Strength of rural economies Resilient fisherydependent livelihoods Small-scale fisheries realize their full potential to deliver sustainable development goals for income, food security, nutrition, health and gender equity chain infrastructure Long term > Improve fishery management arrangements > Diversify catch (adopt new catching sustainable fish catches Improved wellbeing of fishing-dependent people methods) > Relocate to other fisheries Possible response options to the impacts of climate change at several key points in a fishery system (source Hall, 2011) KEY POINT EFFECT IVE ADAPTAT ION WILL BE KEY TO COPING WIT H CLIMAT E CHANGE. 6

9 SUCCESSES / POSIT IVE EXAMPLES Are there any examples or promising approaches that illustrate the ways in which problems in this area have been successfully addressed? Ref There are several encouraging trends > The growing awareness of fisheries as a climatevulnerable sector and its inclusion in national plans of adaptation and thus, potentially, to allocation of funds for adaptation. > A growing number of grassroots initiatives at local level to reduce exposure to climate change impacts and build capacity to adapt. > Breeding new strains for future climates, the ability to switch to different species as the production environment changes, and the diminishing dependency on fishmeal and fish oil in aquaculture feeds, all of which contribute to reducing the climate-sensitivity of aquaculture. > Support for diversified livelihoods, reciprocal access agreements and other geographically flexible strategies and globalization of some markets (e.g. fishmeal), all of which help to maintain resilience of fisheries to climate variability and change. REF LECT IONS Ref > The overall contribution of fisheries and aquaculture to global food systems is unlikely to change markedly as a result of climate change, but there will be winners and losers among those producing, trading and consuming aquatic-source foods. > One of the key challenges in addressing the impacts of climate change is to situate it in context of other drivers of change. No-regret adaptation such as strengthening the governance of capture fisheries and improving the business support and regulatory environment around aquaculture will be beneficial in addressing the multiple threats and constraints faced by these sectors. > There are opportunities for the fishery sector to contribute to lowering the carbon footprint of food production, such as healthy oceans, mangrove and sea-grass supported fisheries as part of the Climate smart agriculture. 7

10 BRIEFING PAPER 03 / Coping wit h climat e change references Ref Allison, E. H., A. L. Perry, M. C. Badjeck, W. N. Adger, K. Brown, D. Conway, A. S. Halls, G. M. Pilling, J. D. Reynolds, N. L. Andrew, and N. K. Dulvy Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries. Fish and Fisheries 10: Badjeck, M.-C., E. H. Allison, A. S. Halls, and N. K. Dulvy Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods. Marine Policy 34: Leung, T. L. F., and A. E. Bates More rapid and severe disease outbreaks for aquaculture at the tropics: implications for food security. Journal of Applied Ecology 50: Merino, G., M. Barange, J. L. Blanchard, J. Harle, R. Holmes, I. Allen, E. H. Allison, M. C. Badjeck, N. K. Dulvy, and J. Holt Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate? Global Environmental Change 22: Bell, J. D., C. Reid, M. J. Batty, P. Lehodey, L. Rodwell, A. J. Hobday, J. E. Johnson, and A. Demmke Effects of climate change on oceanic fisheries in the tropical Pacific: implications for economic development and food security. Climatic Change 119: Branch, T. A., B. M. De Joseph, L. J. Ray, and C. A. Wagner Impacts of ocean acidification on marine seafood production. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 28: Cheung, W. W. L., R. Watson, and D. Pauly Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch. Nature 497: FAO Climate Smart Agriculture Sourcebook: Module 10: Fisheries and Aquaculture. FAO, Rome. Hall, S. J Climate change and other external drivers in small-scale fisheries: Practical steps for responding. Pages in Pomeroy, R., and N. L. Andrew, editors. Managing Small Scale Fisheries: Frameworks and Approaches. CABI, Oxford. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., P. J. Mumby, A. J. Hooten, R. S. Steneck, P. Greenfield, E. Gomez, C. D. Harvell, P. F. Sale, A. J. Edwards, and K. Caldeira Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318: Micheli, F., A. Saenz-Arroyo, A. Greenley, L. Vazquez, J. A. E. Montes, M. Rossetto, and G. A. De Leo Evidence that marine reserves enhance resilience to climatic impacts. PloS One 7:doi: /journal. pone b. Ramirez-Villegas, J., A. J. Challinor, P. K. Thornton, and A. Jarvis Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research. Environmental Research Letters 8: Schellnhuber, H. J., H. William, S. Olivia, A. Sophie, C. Dim, F. Katja, M. Maria, M. Otto Ilona, P. Mahé, and R. Alexander Turn down the heat why a 4 C warmer world must be avoided. A Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics. Sumaila, U. R., W. W. L. Cheung, V. W. Y. Lam, D. Pauly, and S. Herrick Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries. Nature Climate Change 1: Wheeler, T., and J. v. Braun Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 321:

11 BRIEFING PAPERS 01 Sustaining Fish Stocks What are the key levers for improving capture fisheries governance to sustain the resource base how do these change for different types of fishery? 02 Sustaining aquacult ure growt h How do we sustain the growth in aquaculture that is needed? 03 Coping wit h climat e change How can we climate proof our fish production systems? 04 T he wealt h to welfare cont inuum What economic roles are wild capture fisheries best placed to play and under what circumstances? 05 T he fut ure of demand How will the demand for fish evolve and what are the implications of anticipated changes? 06 Meeting Needs How can the fish food system best meet the needs of poor consumers to address food and nutrition security challenges? ALL BRIEFING PAPERS ARE AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT PDF Please send all comments to bp.feedback@fishingfuture.org

12 Fisheries and Aquacult ure in t he 21st Cent ury: An init iat ive for Global Act ion Init iat ive Secretariat: Dr. Stephen J. Hall WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia s.hall@cgiar.org Andreas Schaffer The Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore a.schaffer@ntu.edu.sg 100% RECYCLED Paper made from recycled material