California Ag Trends: (Klonsky, California Agriculture, July-September 2012).

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1 Where and Why Will Tree Crops Replace Rangeland? Roger Duncan Tree Crops Farm Advisor UC Cooperative Extension Stanislaus County California Ag Trends: (Klonsky, California Agriculture, July-September 212). Almond acreage increased by 37, acres (74%) Pistachio acreage increased by 79,5 acres (18%) Walnut acreage increased by 38, acres (18%) Orchard acreage overall increased from 2.2 to 2.8 million acres Vineyard acreage increased 197, acres (66%) Vegetable crop acreage down by 1% Field crops down from 15% of farm income to 9% The greatest decline has been in pasture and grazing land, and this trend will likely continue. 18, 16, 14, Trend in Almond Orchard Bearing Acreage in Stanislaus County Trends in Almond & Walnut Orchard Bearing Acreage in Stanislaus County Almonds Walnuts Bearing Acres 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Almond acreage increased from 98,7 acres in 26 to 155,114 acres in 212, an increase of 57% in six years. Bearing Acres

2 Trend in Walnut Orchard Bearing Acreage in Stanislaus County Nurseries Cannot Keep Up with Demand Bearing Acres Walnut acreage increased from 27,3 acres in 26 to 38,295 acres in 212, an increase of 4% in six years Nurseries are selling out of almond trees one year in advance Walnut trees are sold out two years in advance Why?? $ Almonds are Very Profitable Growers currently paid $2.75 -$3. / pound Average production ~ 2,5 pounds / acre Cash operating costs ~ $2,15 / acre* $6,875 - $7,5 gross income $4,725 - $5,35 per acre net income *University of California 211 Sample Costs to Establish an Almond Orchard and Produce Almonds Almond Establishment Costs per Acre: Land Preparation: $5 Purchase trees (124 / acre): $651 Planting costs: $223 Total $1,374 Almond Establishment Costs per Acre: If installing a new orchard outside of an irrigation district, you must include a well. Installing a 16 well: $2, (15 2 acres) Drip / microsprinkler system ~ $18 / acre installed If previous orchard exists, add orchard removal ($478) & fumigation ($425). *University of California 211 Sample Costs to Establish an Almond Orchard and Produce Almonds 2

3 Walnuts are Even More Profitable Growers getting $2. / pound Average production ~ 2.5 tons / acre Cash operating costs ~ $1,4 / acre* Walnut Establishment Costs per Acre: Land Preparation: $55 Purchase trees (65 / acre): $1,73 Planting costs: $528 Total $2,151 $1, gross income $8,6 per acre net income *University of California 212 Sample Costs to Establish a Walnut Orchard and Produce Walnuts If previous orchard exists, orchard removal & fumigation costs. *University of California 211 Sample Costs to Establish an Almond Orchard and Produce Almonds Why are Almonds Grown so Successfully in California? Excellent soils in much of Central Valley Plentiful, high quality water Mediterranean climate long, hot, dry summers with relatively low chance of severe frost after March 1. Mostly mechanized Almonds have a relatively large window to be harvested and do not need to be processed immediately Unprocessed almonds can be stockpiled for several weeks 3

4 Almonds originated from wild species indigenous to deserts of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan & Iran They are well adapted to mild, wet winters and very long, dry, hot summers. California produced about 82% of the world s almond supply in 213 & 1% of U.S. production. Australia 5%, Turkey 2%, all Europe 6% Can tolerate poor soil conditions and drought Overly Wet / Poorly Drained Soils Limitations to Profitable Almond Growing 4

5 Sandy loam soil with clay lens 5 minutes Sandy loam soil with clay lens 1 minutes Sandy loam soil with clay lens 17 minutes 5

6 Due to past and ongoing University of California rootstock field trials, we now have rootstocks much more tolerant to wet soils than the most commonly used rootstocks today Phytophthora Root & Crown Rot Salt Toxicity Sodium Chloride Boron 1 5 Tree salt tolerance Peach Average Rootzone Salinity (ECe) Salinity coefficients from Maas and Grattan 1999 Crop yields as affected by salinity ASA Monograph 38. Olive from Aragues (personal communication) Relative Salt Tolerance of 15 Almond Rootstocks %Sodium % Chloride Nemaguard Lovell.7.5 Guardian Cadaman Empyrean1.9.7 Hansen.9.7 Nickels GF Cornerstone.4.5 Viking Atlas Krymsk Penta.3.41 Julior Adesoto.6.4 UC Cooperative Extension Rootstock Trial 213 July Critical Levels Na Cl.25%.3% 6

7 WATER DATE Previous Water Use Guidelines New WaterUse Guidelines Mar 1-15 NA.54 Mar Apr Apr May May June June July July Aug Aug Sept Sept Oct Oct Nov Total ETc New University of California Studies show that optimal irrigation of almonds is 25% more than previously believed Dr. Bruce Lampinen, UC Davis Have We Flooded the Market? Domestic Per Capita Consumption of Nuts 2 According to Blue Diamond s 213 Industry Overview: Demand continues to outstrip supply Pounds per person Almonds Peanuts Walnut Pecan Pistachio Source: The Food Institute. Almanac of Dried Fruit & Nuts,

8 Almond Industry Shipments Historical Tree Nut Pricing Million Pounds 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Price per Pound $8. $7. $6. $5. $4. $3. $2. $1. $. Almonds Walnut Halves & Pieces Pistachio Pecan Fancy Halves Cashews Source: Blue Diamond Almonds. When Will the Madness End? When California runs out of land and water Thank you for your attention. Questions? Roger Duncan cestanislaus.ucdavis.edu Difficult to Farm in Soils with Large Stones 8