Soil and Water Management in the Face of Changing Weather Patterns
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1 Aaron B. Wilson OSU Extension Byrd Polar & Climate Research Center OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Soil and Water Management in the Face of Changing Weather Patterns Aaron B. Wilson OKI Regional Conservation Council s Annual Meeting April 17, 2018
2
3 Photo credit: Knox County Historical Society Flood of 1913 Public Domain, Ohio s greatest weather disaster of rain 467 deaths Over 40,000 homes destroyed Photo credit: Ohio History Connection
4 Blizzard of 1978 January 26-27; 51 lives lost OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Sample of NWS recorded peak wind gusts: 69 mph Dayton & Columbus 75 mph Akron 82 mph Cleveland Hopkins Airport 86 mph sustained with gusts to 111 mph on Lake Erie (reported by ore carrier J. Burton Ayers) Loudenslager farm in Marion County. Photo courtesy of Marion County Historical Society
5 Derecho of 2012
6 What is Weather? Current state of the atmosphere Caused by physical imbalances of heat, atmospheric pressure, and moisture Consists of the short-term (minutes to days) variations in the atmosphere.
7 What is Climate? Slower varying aspects of the atmosphere hydrosphere land surface system Averages of the climate system over periods of a month or more.
8 Weather & Perception
9
10 How have global temperatures changed?
11 HowGlobalWarmingWorks.org, 2014
12 CO 2 and evaporated water become warmer as they absorb infrared radiation from earth s surface trying to escape to space. HowGlobalWarmingWorks.org, 2014
13 HowGlobalWarmingWorks.org, 2014
14
15 National and Regional Climate Trends
16 Closer to Home: Observed Temperature Changes Average ( ) minus Average ( ) Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.2 F (0.7 C) for the period relative to and by 1.8 F (1.0 C) based on a linear regression for the period : National Climate Assessment CCSR:
17 Shifting Growing Zones
18 Expanding the corn belt north and west into the Dakotas and southern Canada OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Impacts from Shifting Growing Zones Perhaps mitigates nationwide crop losses more difficult Increased pressure from invasive plant species and weeds Depends on management system, and rainfall changes Gary Schnitkey: Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics; University of Illinois
19 Closer to Home: Extremes National Climate Assessment CCSR: Decreases in warmest temperatures tied to unprecedented summer heat of the 1930s Dust Bowl era (springtime precipitation deficits and land mismanagement) Agricultural intensification may have suppressed the hottest extremes in the Midwest. (Muller et al, 2016: Nature Climate Change; Science
20 IN OH KY Number of nights below zero has decreased significantly since the 60s/70s.
21
22 Impacts from False Springs and Increased Frost- Free Season Length Advance phenological state susceptibility to late season freeze/frost Loss of nutrients through multiple dormancy breaks Pests shifting northward, increasing generation times, and multiple generations of insects with increased pesticide resistance lead to increased management
23 IN OH KY Increase in number of warm summer nights.
24 Impacts from Warmer Temperatures (Nights) Additional stress on humans and livestock; Increased need for adequate cooling Accelerated pace of GDD accumulation; Changes in regional crop rotations and field management options (double-cropping use of cover crops) Pollination and grain, fiber, or fruit production sensitive to high temperatures lower productivity and reduced quality
25 Closer to Home: Observed Precipitation Changes Annual precipitation has decreased in much of the West, Southwest, and Southeast and increased in most of the Northern and Southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. A national average increase of 4% in annual precipitation since 1901 mostly a result of large increases in the fall season. National Climate Assessment CCSR:
26 Closer to Home: Seasonal Differences
27 IN OH Recent increase in annual precipitation, especially across Indiana and Ohio. KY
28 North Edge of Arcanum: July 6, 2017 Photos Courtesy of Sam Custer/Janelle Brinksneader Photos courtesy of Ohio DOT: Flooding of I-70 through Licking County in Central Ohio on July 14, 2017
29 OHIO
30 Ag Impacts from Precipitation Extremes Soil movement and loss - mitigate with reduction in tillage or cover crops Nutrient loss and downstream water quality issues incorporations and proper timing, placement (4 Rs) Loss of field work days; Delayed planting/harvests
31
32 Extreme precipitation is part of the story of water impairment. Harmful algal blooms on Lake Erie (above) and Ohio River (right)
33 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
34 Relative to average
35 Seasonal precipitation changes and impacts on water availability for crop production OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Soil & Water Healthy soils impacted by erosion, compaction, and loss of organic matter. Organic material impacted by soil temperature & water availability Increased erosion from intense extreme rainfall events Increased potential for associated, off-site, non-point-source pollution. Tillage intensity, crop selection, as well as planting and harvest dates can significantly affect runoff and soil loss. Surface and groundwater systems impacted over time through changes in evapotranspiration and recharge
36 It s About Having Conversations Greater Flood Risk (Increased Frequency of Flooding) Increased risk (damage to water infrastructure and changing floodplains (roads, floodwalls, dams, electric grid, water intakes, etc.) Health risks associated with floods (mold, exposure to chemicals and waterborne pathogens, vector control, drinking water and food contamination) Increased transportation issues (major disruptions to local economy, difficult for police and ambulances to respond to emergencies when areas are flooded). Reduced Water Quality Intensity means more runoff and potential contamination Increased need for water treatment due to deteriorated water quality. Potential for summer droughts and seasonal water shortages, particularly for agricultural and industrial use.
37 Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center Migrating Climates
38 Climate Change Adaptation Increase our knowledge about the threats from changing local climate/weather patterns (direct impacts) and changes in other locales (prices) Plan action to maintain profitability, sustainability, and healthy water and soil
39 Thank you! Aaron Wilson
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