THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Transcription

1 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOUTH AFRICA S RURAL AREAS 7 June 2012 For an Equitable Sharing of National Revenue

2 INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH ISSUES Outcome 7 commits government to developing vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities and food security for all Challenge posed by climate change for agriculture is cause for concern Potential to destabilise rural economies/ Public finances and Outcome 7, MDGs attainment Hence climate variation should be taken into account 2

3 OBJECTIVES To evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture productivity To establish the vulnerability of municipalities to climate change in South Africa To recommend on innovative financial and fiscal policy measures and instruments to address climate change 3

4 RATIONALE Government Inform climate change policies and Outcome 7 Parliament Legislation that takes into account climate change Municipalities Formulating adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies 4

5 Objective 1: Ricardian Model METHODOLOGY Objective 2 : Vulnerability Index Parameters Vulnerability Index Components Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Change in rainfall. Population density Financial Change in temperature Water Stress Infrastructure Fire risk Socio-economic capacity Sea Level Rise Governance Flood risk Malaria risk 5

6 Key Findings KEY FINDINGS Subsistence farmers: Results suggests that both crop farmers and livestock farmers will be affected by climate change, with the effects being more negative among the crop farmers Commercial Farmers: Negative climate change effects will be felt more by crop farmers 6

7 CHANGE IN NET REVENUE AS A RESULT OF DECREASE IN RAINFALL AND INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE (SUBSISTENCE FARMERS) 7

8 CHANGE IN NET REVENUE AS A RESULT OF DECREASE IN RAINFALL AND INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE (COMMERCIAL FARMERS) 8

9 VULNERABILITY INDEX RESULTS The twenty most vulnerable municipalities Municipality Name Municipality Code Municipality Type Municipality Name Municipality Code Municipality Type Mnquma EC122 B4 Thulamela LIM343 B4 Intsika Yethu EC135 B4 Aganang LIM352 B4 Engcobo EC137 B4 Ephraim Mogale LIM471 B4 Port St Johns EC154 B4 Elias Motsoaledi LIM472 B4 Ntabankulu EC444 B4 Fetakgomo LIM474 B4 Indaka KZN233 B4 Thembisile MP315 B4 Mandeni KZN291 B4 Moretele NW371 B4 Maphumulo KZN294 B4 Moses Kotane NW375 B4 Greater Giyani LIM331 B4 Ditsobotla NW384 B3 Greater Letaba LIM332 B4 City of Matlosana NW403 B1 9

10 RECOMMENDATIONS DEA and NDMC should develop a municipal vulnerability index and risk modelling tools to assist municipalities to assess their vulnerability to climate change and non-climate change disasters and determine associated contingent liabilities Account for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity DCoG should adjust the objectives, terms and conditions of the grant framework and administrative procedures for the MIG Use of grant funds for climate adaptation and mitigation investments; investments prioritise and directly address the poor 10

11 RECOMMENDATIONS DCoG should restructure the Special Municipal Infrastructure Grant window in the MIG Allow for municipalities to acquire or rehabilitate ecological infrastructure Provide the funding window for rural municipalities to receive resources from global resources DAFF should expand provision of rural agricultural extension and support services for small scale farmers to facilitate their uptake of climate resilient farming strategies that enable them to proactively adapt to and mitigate the projected local effects of climate change 11

12 THANK YOU. Financial and Fiscal Commission Montrose Place (2 nd Floor), Bekker Street, Waterfall Park, Vorna Valley, Midrand, Private Bag X69, Halfway House Tel: Fax: