Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Metrics for Agriculture

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1 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Metrics for Agriculture Annual Temperature Trends Cynthia Rosenzweig and Francesco Tubiello Goddard Institute for Space Studies at Columbia University, New York, NY

2 Background and Rationale Metrics = Measurement Tools for Decision-Making Goals: To develop metrics to assess agricultural risk under climate change in regions and globally, and to improve adaptation planning, i.e., minimize damage/maximize opportunities. Metrics need to be: 1) Relevant to stakeholders E.g., farmers, associations, regional and national governments*** 2) As simple as possible Easy to measure and/or compute; easy to communicate; comparable. ***Focus of this paper

3 Coping Ranges and Thresholds Current Ayers et al Characterizing thresholds for different social groups, agro-ecosystems, regions, nations: Comparable metrics Case-specific thresholds

4 Observed Agriculture Changes Phenology Yields Management practices, pests and diseases Annual Temperature Trends Interpolated <-1.2C to >1.2C Livestock

5 Relevancy to Stakeholders Address economic costs ($) of impacts as well as intangibles e.g., people at risk of hunger. Take account of likely (autonomous) adaptation. Be useful for evaluating planned adaptation responses e.g., enable coping range and cost-benefit analyses. Consider time component: e.g., rates/magnitudes of climate changes; discount rates; socio-economic changes. Address vulnerability issues: Vulnerability = F (Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity) Sustainability Contribute to development goals by improving short-term responses to climate extremes as well as long-term responses to climate change

6 Metrics Developed at Expert and Stakeholder Workshop Categories Biophysical Indicators Socio-Economic Data Agricultural System Characteristics Vulnerability Criteria Exposure Sensititivity Adaptive Capacity Indices Climate Soil Crop calender Water storage Biomass/Production Crop insurance programs Trade flow % Agriculture sector in subsistence (e.g. heath, education) % Agriculture sector in poverty and inequality, (e.g. wages) Technological change % Arable land currently in use % Rainfed crops/irrigated crops Climate Mitigation Programs Risk Reduction Kyoto commitment capacity Carbon sequestration potential; CDM projects in place, planned

7 Workshop Examples Developed Countries: US Intensive Production Developing Countries: Semi-Arid Tropical Agriculture in South-East South America Economy in Transition: High-Latitude Agriculture in Eastern Europe Mediterranean Semi-Arid Environments

8 Exposure Biophysical Indicators Climate, Soil, Crop Calendar, Water Storage, Biomass/Production

9 Developed Country Annual Length of Frost-Free Period Averaged Over U.S. Corn Production Region Kendall-Thiel Regression Easterling, 2006

10 Developing Country Semi-arid Tropical Agriculture Change in Dates of First Frost and Last Frost ( ) Estanzuela, SW Uruguay Sep First Frost Last Frost Day of the year Jun 21 Aug 14 Jun Frost season is now 6 weeks shorter than in early 1900 s Baethgen, 2006

11 Developing Country Semi-arid Tropical Agriculture Change in Precipitation (%) and January/February/March Cambio entre y (%) (JFM = Verano) % Increase in Rainfall Impacts on Land-use Changes Walter Baethgen, 2006

12 Developing Country Africa: Drought Patterns Short-term Long-term (24-months) (6-months) accumulated precipitation Drought Frequency Drought Duration SPI Standardized Precipitation Index Lotsch 2006 moderate drought: δ > 1.5 Data: NOAA

13 Sensitivity Socio-Economic Factors and Data Land-use trends, crop insurance programs, trade flow, % agriculture sector in subsistence (e.g., health, education), % agriculture sector in poverty and inequality (e.g., wages)

14 Economy in Transition High-Latitude Agriculture Changes in Agriculture in CEE Significant changes in land ownership structure: No private land ownership before 1989 Restoration of the private ownership in central Europe started after 1990 and it is still not completed High fragmentation of the land (12 people per 10 ha) and consolidation is not completed Compensation schemes do not work adequately (negative environmental impact) Socio-economic factors (connection to own land, ageing) Bizik 2006

15 Economy in Transition High-Latitude Agriculture Agricultural Land-Use Change Land fragmentation Carpathians, Ukraine, Hostert et al Bizik 2006

16 Developed Country Climate Extremes Pull the Trigger, but Multiple Stressors Load the Gun Rapid population growth Environmental changes Unintended consequences of government policy Crop Reporting Districts with highest gain correlate with highest proportion of nation s disaster and crop insurance payments Easterling, 2006

17 Adaptive Capacity Agricultural System Characteristics Technological change, % arable land currently in use, % rainfed crops/irrigated crops, research/education/extension

18 Developing Country Semi-arid Tropical Agriculture: Changes in Crop Yields (Argentina) during 20 th Century Yield increases (%) between and Total Climate Wh Su Mz Sb - 38 Magrin et al, 2005 Baethgen 2006

19 a) Climate Projections developed and developing countries b) Socio-Economic Development pathways SRES A1, A2, B1, B2 c) Climate Change Impact projections at several levels of adaptation d) Model-based probabilities Future Risks

20 Climate Change Projections Developed Regions GCM-projected mean annual HAD3 CSIRO CGCM2 NCAR ECHAM NCAR CSIRO HAD3 CGCM2 ECHAM HAD3 CSIRO CGCM2 NCAR ECHAM GCM-projected mean annual CO2 concentration (ppm) FIGURE 2a GCM-projected mean annual Temperature change (C) HAD3 Developing Regions GCM-projected mean annual CSIRO CGCM2 NCAR ECHAM NCAR CSIRO HAD3 CGCM2 ECHAM HAD3 CSIRO CGCM2 NCAR ECHAM GCM-projected mean annual CO2 concentration (ppm) GCM-projected mean annual Temperature change (C) FIGURE 2b Developed and developing regions have differential exposure, especially in regard to precipitation

21 Impacts/Adaptation on Cereal Production 100 = 1990 Cereal Production Developed Regions HAD3 CSIR CGC NCAR HAD3 NCAR CGC CSIR HAD3 CSIR CGCM NCAR HAD3 CGCM NCAR CSIR Temper Temper Developing Regions HAD3 CSIR CGC NCAR HAD3 NCAR CGC CSIR HAD3 CSIR CGCM NCAR HAD3 CGCM NCAR CSIR Temper Temper No Adaptation Current Agricultural Land With Adaptation All Arable Land

22 Impacts and Adaptation Methodological Approaches Dynamic Crop Models/World Food Trade Models Biophysical representations of agro-ecosystems, CO 2 effects Demand, production, and trade Allow testing of effects of specific adaptation management practices Future State Metrics Crop yield, mean and variability Regional/national production and value Irrigation water requirements Impacts of increased frequency of extreme events Risk of hunger Value of production at risk Ricardian Approaches Statistical models of land use/value as function of climate Allow comprehensive valuation of impacts and adaptations Future State Metrics Regional/national production and value Production and land value at risk

23 Analyze possible impacts and responses: (What if...) Climate (scenarios) Interventions Technologies Management Policies Possible Outcomes Simulation Model 5 Analyze a wide range of alternatives and Possible impacts in different climate scenarios: Inform Planning and Decision Making

24 Climate and Agriculture Metrics Evidence has begun to show agricultural responses to observed warming. This is emerging across several indices, agro-ecosystems, and regions. Metrics need to be relevant to stakeholders, measurable and/or computable, comparable, and as simple as possible. Risk and coping range approaches are useful and need to be developed for a range of agricultural systems. Climate change metrics can be mapped onto exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity components. Dynamic and statistical approaches offer complementary tools for projecting climate metrics.

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26 Proposed Metrics Metric Crop Yield Yield Variability, CV Production Economic Value at Risk Units (multiple scales) Ton/ha Long-term standard deviation divided by mean yield (%) At local to regional and national levels (Ton/yr) Net production value at local to regional levels. Agricultural GDP at national level ($) Land Value at Risk Land value of areas most affected ($) Damage from Extreme Events Nutrition Index Water Requirements/Withdrawals Impacts of increased frequency of droughts/floods on damage (Ton and/or $) Food demand over supply (sum of internal production and trade). Unitless. Irrigation water requirements over available resources. Unitless.

27 Benchmark Values for Impact Metrics 1) Present State of agricultural system at regional and national scales, comprising: a) Mean Characteristics of production systems; b) Observed Recent Trends in climate means and variability, and agricultural responses. 2) Future State of Risk, defined in terms of: a) Socio-Economic Development pathway(s) without climate change; b) Climate Change Impact projections at several levels of adaptation.

28 Measurement Issues Metrics need to be measurable and/or computable, and comparable. Inclusion of both mean and variability; recent past, current trends and projection of risks. Grappling with uncertainties: Is climate changing? Do agricultural stakeholders perceive that climate is changing? Usual suspects in projections related to emissions futures, climate sensitivities, development pathways, adaptation responses. Scales of verification: Farm, region, nation; statistics, in situ and remote sensing measurements. Evaluating impacts and adaptation: Crop modeling and Ricardian approaches.