What are the key factors of food insecurity among Senegalese farmers?

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1 Afrcan Journal of Food Scence Vol. 4(8) pp , Augus 2010 Avalable onlne hp:// ISSN Academc Journals Full Lengh Research Paper Wha are he key facors of food nsecury among Senegalese farmers? Franços Joseph Cabral Faculy of Economc and Managemen Scences, Unversy Chekh Ana DIOP. Senegal. E-mal: Tel: (221) , (221) Fax (221) Acceped 09 Augus, 2010 Durng 2008, many of sub-saharan Afrcan economes have been oblged o suspend her mpors arffs due o he magnude of he food crss. Frequen ros experenced n several ces have hen rased he deep ssue of food secury. The purpose of hs paper s o denfy for he case of Senegal he major causes of food nsecury among rural households whch are more affeced, n parcular farmers. An ordered mulnomal model based on he Senegalese household daa (Esam I) s used o denfy he mos nfluenal probable causes of food nsecury among farmers. The resuls showed ha he probably of food nsecury among all farmers s sgnfcanly dmnshed for farmers who have access o agrculural and pasoral goods for self-suffcen needs. Access o ransfers hardly reduces also he probably of food nsecury for all of hem. Income dversfcaon facors lke earnngs from lvesock reduce sgnfcanly food nsecury rsks among small and larger farmers. Gender for small farmers and age for medum farmers seems also o be sgnfcan facors. Household sze and s agroecologcal area of resdence play a key role n he ssue a hand for all farmers. Polcymakers mus hen se some mechansm whch wll susan farmers so ha hey can receve her par of overall ncreasng economc growh benefs. In parcular, by ryng o undersand her specfc agro-ecologcal condons, hey can denfy whch of he key programs o address. Key words: Food secury, povery, mulnomal model. INTRODUCTION Accordng o a specal repor from he Uned Naons Human Rghs Councl for Food Prevson, abou 58% of worldwde deah cases were due o malnuron n Abou 62 mllon people de every year for one reason or anoher. In 2006, he number of deah caused by sarvaon or oher dseases lnked o he lack of mcronurmens was esmaed a 36 mllons (Zegler, 2005). In Sub-Saharan Afrca, more han anywhere else, food nsecury s hghly lnked o he lack of food provsons. The world sysem for urgen nformaon on food and agrculure, (FAO/SMIAR, 2003) ancpaed ha he needs n cereal mpors for ha par of Afrca were gong o be raher mporan, due manly o he fac ha severe droughs dangerously prevaled n he Souhern, Easern and Wesern pars of he connen n The food JEL classfcaon, C1, I3, O1. supply defc has engendered specal food asssance needs esmaed a 4.6 mllon ons n comparson o he esmaed 2 mllon ons for 2001 and Performances n cereal supply are generally much lower n hs regon of Afrca han n oher regons of he world. Besdes, s wdely agreed ha he needs for food are gong o ncrease n he comng decades due o several reasons. Incdenally, populaon growh, whch undoubedly resuls n an ncrease of he world demand for cereal, wll have a remendous mpac on he world marke for cereal. Moreover, he ncrease n he average ncome n developng counres lke Brazl, Russa, Inda, Chna, conrbues o a bgger demand n global cereal markes, as well as lvesock food. In concurrence wh a growng demand for bofuels, producon for he am of human consumpon s more and more replaced by a producon for energzng use; whch n reurn reduces cereal avalably. Clmae change s also a bg par of hs equaon. Recurren droughs n grea cereal

2 478 Afr. J. Food Sc. producer counres lke Ausrala and he Uned Saes of Amerca grealy reduce he supply and socks. All hose facors conrbue o he growng worldwde demand n cereal supply, whch consequenly resul n a srong prce ncrease (Hazgu, 2008). An ncrease ha mgh urns srucural, causng mllons of people around he world o face food nsecury. Senegal s no mmune o hese world cereal demands crses. Cereals are far from beng suffcenly produced n he counry. The low growh of farmng supply, parly relaed o he effecs of farmng echnologes, macroeconomc polces and exernal shocks, have had negave consequences on coverng he counry s food needs as well as households ncome flows. From 1984 o 1993 he conrbuon of domesc supplers o he sasfacon of cereal needs was roughly 57.78%, he gap beng flled by mporaons and food asssance. Beween 1994 and 2000, ha conrbuon fell o 49.53% (Cabral, 2005). The concep of food secury, whch was frs nroduced n he 70s (sevenes) accordng o he Food and Agrculure Organzaon (FAO), has been gven several defnons. Accordng o he FAO, food secury s acheved when everyone can permanenly have physcal and economcal access o food ha s good and rch enough ha her energec needs and food preferences are sasfed, allowng hem o perform her daly acves and have a healhy lfesyle. Some auhors would defne as he capacy of ensurng an effcen food provson sysem for a populaon o be adequaely fed n he long erm (Saaz e al., 1990), whereas for ohers, food secury s esablshed as long as a household, as a un of producon and reproducon, s no hreaened by he lack of food (Maxwell and Frankenberg, 1995). Ohers defne food secury as he permanen access of a whole populaon o suffcen food, n order o lve decenly (Demery and Addson, 1987). Such a defnon refers o he consumer s food suffs baske whch s supposed o provde each household wh a consumpon esmaed a 2400 kg/calores per day and per adul. Alhough food secury has been gven several defnons, here s a consensus on he concep bass. No maer wha he defnon s, four key elemens are consanly hghlghed: Avalably, sably, access o food and s qualy. An approprae avalably means ha here s a perfec adequacy beween consumer needs and supply. Sably means ha food supply s permanenly ensured for a long erm. The concep of access o food refers o he purchasng power, gven ha, despe he avalably of foodsuffs, poor households mgh be sarvng o deah as a resul of her lack of means o produce or buy needed food. Here, qualy s lnked o he cleanlness and healhness of food for consumpon. Whle assessng he deermnan of food nsecury, many sudes were done usng dfferen approaches. For nsance, Che and Chen (2003) have esmaed he proporon of people lvng under food nsecury by crossabulaons. Tha mehod has also been used o measure he prevalence of fve specfc healh characerscs n people affeced by food nsecury and hose ha are no affeced. Mulple logscal funcons were used o esmae he regresson equaon ha lnks food nsecury wh several demographcal and economcal facors, on one hand and varous healh problems on anoher hand. Zoyem e al. (2008) used a mulvarae procedure o esmae he regresson equaon lnkng he gap of calore nake quanes o he food nsecury lne and a se of explanaory varables, whle Garre and Ruel (2009) used he wo-sage leas squares (2SLS) procedures o esmae he regresson equaons. Food secury s esmaed accordng o he foodsuffs baskes of a consumer. The hreshold of food nsecury s consequenly relaed o he hreshold of food povery. When a household consumpon s nferor o 2400 calores per day and per equvalen adul, means ha such a household lves below he average n erms of food nsecury. In he poores areas, some consumers who canno have access o he mnmum baske of food are herefore condemned o food nsecury. In he case of Senegal, whle dealng wh povery, ha parcular caegory of consumers lvng n a suaon of food shorage s no really aken no accoun. Some sudes have hghlghed he huge conrbuon of rural households, n parcular hose operang n groundnu secor o povery ncdence (Drecon de la prévson e de la sasque, 2004, 2001; Boccanfuso e al., 2005). Bu sudes on food nsecury among farmers are very scarce. I makes hen dffcul for polcymakers o overcome hs hrea as hey canno denfy key ools. The am of hs paper s o denfy he facors ha have he greaes nfluence on food nsecury for farmers. By dong so, hs paper res o shed lgh on food nsecury deermnans among farmers by assessng he lnk beween food nsecury and some key explanaory varables ha possbly have an nfluence on farmers household s saus. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF FOOD INSECURITY AMONG FARMERS The soco-economc characerscs of farmers are descrbed based on he Senegalese household daa (Drecon de la prevson e de la sasque, 2001). Households can be affeced by food nsecury n dfferen ways dependng on her area of resdence and on her soco-economc characerscs. In rural areas, dfferences can be noced among consumers accordng o he agroecologcal area where hey lve. We dsngush fve rural agro-ecologcal areas: Nayes zone, Groundnu bel (Zba), Casamance (Zs), Rver area (Zf) and pasure area (Zsp). Agrculural secors have an mpac on households dependng on her ype of producve acvy and area of

3 Cabral 479 Table 1. Expense per person; per equvalen adul a year n CFA (by average) Senegal Urban area Rural area Smallholders Medum farmers Large farmers Sources: Fgures from Esam I. resdence. The groundnu bel s he man area of groundnu producon n Senegal. Household s earnngs n he rural Nayes area depend on vegeables producon and fshng acves. The culvaon of coon and foresry are, n urn, he domnan acves for rural households n he easern par of Senegal and n upper Casamance. Rural households n lower Casamance depend manly on her producon of paddy rce and foresry acves. Lvesock s he man acvy n he sylvo - pasoral area. The man acvy for farmng households n he area of he Senegalese rver s he producon of paddy rce. In mos of he agro-ecologcal area, lvesock and mlle producon s complemenary o he man producon acvy. Fru culvaon, and o a lesser exen ubers producon, end o become alernave sources of ncome for some farmng households. The am of dsngushng he man agro-ecologcal dsrcs s o hghlgh he acves of agrculural producon n rural areas of Senegal and he geographc locaon of house-holds. As we are also analyzng he saus of farmers n regards o food nsecury, we make he dsncon beween small, medum and larger farmers by referrng o he number of hecares owned. We defne small farmers as farmers whose farm sze comprsed beween 0 and 2.5 ha, medum farmers as hose whose farm sze comprsed beween 2.5 and 7 ha, and large farmers are hose whose farm sze s above 7 ha. Whle usng he household survey daa (ESAM I), we are gong o analyze he farmers dsrbuon beween agroecologcal areas and her level of food nsecury accordng o he households locaon. In he followng secon, whle usng daa from he household survey (ESAM I), we are gong o analyze he dsrbuon of farmers beween agro-ecologcal areas and he level of food nsecury accordng o ha area of resdence. SOCIO-ECONOMIC AREAS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMERS SUFFERING FROM FOOD INSECURITY The foodsuffs baske s supposed o provde consumers wh 2400 klos calores per day and per equvalen adul. I had been developed from he 26 ems ha are mos ofen used by consumers and whose oal amoun represen 80% of he household oal expenses belongng o fve decles of consumpon per equvalen adul: Decles 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. In he case of Dakar, he oher urban areas, and rural areas, he baske s respecvely esmaed a FCFA a day, FCFA a day and FCFA a day, ha s o say FCFA a year, FCFA a year and FCFA a year respecvely (Drecon de la prevson e de la sasque, 2004). Accordng o he Senegalese household daa (Esam I), he expendure per person or per equvalen adul s esmaed a FCFA a year for a mddle class Senegalese household whereas for a household affeced by food nsecury, s around FCFA a year n urban areas and FCFA a year n rural areas. In rural areas, large farmers households experencng food nsecury, spend on average FCFA a year whereas medum and small farmers, affeced by spend less han he requred average (Table 1). The hghes peaks of food nsecury are manly noceable among small farmers of he Groundnu bel and medum and large farmers of he Casamance. The lowes ones are noced among farmers operang n he pasure area (Table 2). There s a relavely subsanal gap beween he sze of an average Senegalese household (abou 10 members) and ha of a farmer s household affeced by he phenomenon; n rural areas, ha sze s esmaed a 11 for small farmers, 11 for medum farmers, and 15 for large farmers (Table 3). The agro-ecologcal zones of he Senegalese rver, Casamance and of he groundnu bel are essenally he favoure areas of small farm holders. Medum farmers are manly locaed around he groundnu bel and n he Casamance. The majory of large farmer, are based n he groundnu bel (Table 4). Almos hree quarer of he farms mplaned n he Rver area are small szed. I s lkewse n he Nayes area where more han 4 farms ou of 10 are small szed, o he oppose of he groundnu bel and he lvesock area where he grea majory of farms are large szed. Medum farmers represen nearly half of he farmers presen n he agro-ecologcal zone of he easern par of Senegal (Table 5). THE DETERMINANTS OF FOOD INSECURITY: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON AN ORDERED MULTINOMIAL MODEL An analyss of he key food nsecury facors among Senegalese farmers allows us o denfy hose ha can beer explan he phenomenon. The model Whle assessng deermnans of food nsecury, an ordered mulnomal s used. Ths one s appled o a model for whch he endogenous varable s an ordnal one. Whle assessng he deermnans of food nsecury, hs varable s supposed o ake

4 480 Afr. J. Food Sc. Table 2. Level of food nsecury whn farmers (by percenage). Types of farmers Nayes Groundnu bel Rver area Casamance Easern area Pasure area Small Medum Large Sources: Fgures from Esam I. Table 3. Average sze of a household. Small farmers 11 Medum farmers 11 large farmers 15 Senegal 10 Sources: Fgures from Esam I. Table 4. Reparon of farmers hroughou he agrculural and ecologcal zones (by percenage). Type of farmers Nayes Groundnu bel Rver area Casamance Easern area Pasure area Toal Small Medum Large Sources: fgures from Esam I. Table 5. Reparon of farms whn he agrculural and ecologcal zones (by percenage). Types of farmers Nayes Groundnu bel Rver area Casamance Easern area Pasure area Senegal Small Medum Large Toal Sources: Fgures from Esam I hree modales: The saus of hose no sufferng from food nsecury, he saus of hose sufferng from vulnerably o food nsecury and he saus of hose affeced by food nsecury. For hose sufferng from vulnerably o food nsecury, we consder he group of households for whch he level of food consumpon s 10% below or above he food nsecury lne. Then, we ry o see f he household saus regardng o food nsecury vares dependng o a se of varables (household sze, age, ransfers, educaon, agroecologcal area, access o ncomes from lvesock acvy). The mulnomal model can be obaned hrough wo ways: Though a laen varable (error measuremen model) or rough odds rao (proporonal odds rao model). As he laen varable (food nsecury) s a quanave one and s well known, we adop he model of laen varable. Ths laer s specfed as followed: If we supposed ha Y s a varable of neres wh J modales ordered and ndependen, he probably of beng under food nsecury s calculaed as followng: { 1,..., J} ; { 1 n} P( y m), m,..., = (3) Ths probably s explaned by a se of explanaory varables X (X 1,,X p) and a vecor of parameers β = (β 0,, β p). Even f we can observe Y, here s an unobservable varable Y* for whch he doman of defnon s R gven by: y m f { δ, δ } * = Y m 1 m (3) where δ m 1 and δ m are hresholds o deermne (cuoffs, reshold) wh δ = and δ = +. We suppose ha: * Y 0 = X β + ε J

5 Cabral 481 * Y = β p + X 0 β j j + ε j= 1 As he problem s o calculae he probably for he varable of neres o be equal o one of he m modales, suppose ha * Y comes from a known dsrbuon funcon F. We have hen: P( Y = 1) = F( 1 X β ) for m = 1 δ (3) P( Y = m) = F( X β) F( δ 1 X β) for 2 m J 1 δ m m (3) P( Y = m) = 1 F( δ m 1 X β ) for m = J The ordered mulnomal model s gven he followng expresson: exp( z) F( z) = Φ( z) = 1+ exp( z) The X explanaory varables for hs model are he followng: 1. The household sze. 2. The age of he head of household and/or hs experence esmaed by he square of hs age. 3. The gender of he head of household. 4. The level of educaon of he head of household. 5. The soco-professonal class of he head of household. 6. The area of resdence. 7. A secondary job. 8. Incomes earned from lvesock. 9. The self-suffcency from agrculural and pasoral goods. 10. Household ne ransfers. Before analyzng he key food nsecury facors among Senegalese farmers, a bref dscusson on explanaory varables and an approxmaon of expeced resuls are presened. A dscusson on explanaory varables s made and he expeced oupus presened as well. The mpac of he household sze on he probably of beng affeced by food nsecury s a pror ambguous. On one hand, ncome from labor ncreases wh a hgher number of workng persons n he household, on he oher hand, a hgher household sze means a hgher rao of dependence. The laer s obaned from he dfference beween he number of workers and nonworkers whn he same household. The age of he head of household has an ncdence on he level of food nsecury n he sense ha expeced ncomes ge lower as he ges older. Hs poson n he lfe cycle deermnes a he same me hs household s sandard of lvng. The probably of beng affeced by food nsecury s supposed o ncrease wh he age of he head of household. The head of household s gender s supposed o have an nfluence on he household asses. I can herefore have an nfluence on he economc choces and he facor reurn flows. Is effec s supposed o be undeermned. The saus of he household n relaon o food nsecury can also be nfluenced by s human capal whch deermnes s nvesmen decson and ner-emporal consumpon. The human capal s measured by he level of educaon of he head of household and hs professonal experence whch s esmaed by hs age. Qualfcaons are supposed o reduce a household s probably of beng affeced by food nsecury. The head of famly afflaon wh ceran soco-professonal classes may also lead he household o be confroned wh food nsecury or no be confroned o. The unemployed and socoprofessonal groups wh small or conngen ncomes are generally he mos exposed o food nsecury, conrarly o he groups of qualfed workers. Food secury s also dependen on he household s area of resdence. The fac of lvng n rural areas, parcularly n ecologcal zones wh a relavely mporan ncome, can also sgnfcanly reduce such a rsk. From one regon o anoher, rural areas are affeced by evden nequales n erms of agro-clmac poenal-les, mplemenaon of farmng acves and uses of producon facors. Those nequales generae wde gaps n rade surplus, revenues, and evenually n food nsecury. Thanks o lvesock acvy, grea opporunes of hgher revenues exs n he pasure area, whereas he groundnu bel area s confroned wh problems as soon as he groundnu secor collapses. We dsngush fve rural agro-ecologcal areas: The Nayes zone, he Groundnu bel (Zba), Casamance (Zs), he Rver area (Zf), and he pasure area (Zsp). A sraegy dversfyng sources of revenue and /or of consumpon can nfluence he food secury/nsecury saus of a household. Ths mehod s known as he porfolo heory accordng o whch he household or he consumer s supposed o dversfy hs porfolo so as o proec self agans any rsk. Ths aude of dversfcaon s esmaed wh proxes such as a secondary job for he head of household, ne ransfers, access o lvesock acvy ncome, and self-suffcency n agrculural and pasoral producs. The explanaory varable head of household secondary job s supposed o be negavely correlaed wh he probably of sufferng from food nsecury. Takng no accoun ne ransfers aes of he mporance hs caegory of ncome could have n he probably of food nsecury. When hese are posve, hey conrbue o a varaon n sources of ncome, bu hey can also negavely mpac some households, especally when he amouns ransferred are superor o he amouns receved. The lnk beween ne ransfers and he probably of food nsecury are a pror, undeermned. The varable lvesock ncome s supposed o be negavely lnked o he probably of food nsecury. Ths acvy conrbues mosly o he prmary GDP secor. Self-suffcency also allows households o keep her consumpon safe from markes dsurbances. The mehodology recommended by Bendel and Aff (1977), as well as Mckey and Greenland (1989), s used o selec varables relevan o he model. Indeed, many exogenous varables are lkely o also be ncluded n he model. The selecon creron of a varable, n he model, vares from one conex o anoher and from one feld o anoher. The mos radonal sascal approach o buld up a model consss of fndng he bes model. The objecve s o mnmze he number of varables ncluded n he model so as o oban he seades numercal model, and one ha can easly be generalzed. Such an approach s based on a sraegy of varable selecon whch resuls n a model of he bes ype for he ssue n conex. Mos auhors agree ha s beer o selec he varables of a model by usng a clnc ha reles on her sgnfcance. The process ha s generally acceped and s adoped n hs paper s he one suggesed by Bendel and Aff (1977) and Mckey and Greenland (1989). I s made of a prelmnary economerc analyss whch lnks each specfc exogenous varable o he endogenous one. Each varable wh a p-value nferor o 0.25 s seleced for he mulvarable analyss as varable whch have been cerfed o have clnc " mporance. Therefore, varables wh a p-value superor or equal o 0.25 are no seleced. The age of he head of household and hs level of educaon are no seleced for small and large farmers. In he case of medum farmers, household ne ransfers are excluded. Farmers are no a homogeneous group. Ths s confrmed by an LR es whch rejecs hs hypohess and refleced by he sgn and magnude of coeffcens whch vares from one group o anoher. So an ordered mulnomal model has been used for he hree groups of farmers and he margnal effecs of keys facors

6 482 Afr. J. Food Sc. Table 6. Characerscs of a mean farmer n each caegory. Small farmer Medum farmer Large farmer Self-consumpon(n fcfa) Household sze Age Lvesock ncome (n fcfa) Nes ransfers (n fcfa) Sources: Fgures from Esam I. Table 7. Key facors of food nsecury. Facors Small farmers Medum farmers Large farmers Food nsecury Coeffcen P > z Coeffcen P > z Coeffcen P > z Sze Age Self-consumpon e e e Sex Lvesock ncome e e e Ne ransfers -1.78e e e Prmary school Groundnu bel Casamance 1, Rver area Easern area 0, Pasure area -0, Sources: Esmaons. evaluaed farmer s household s a resden of he area and 0 f no. RESULTS For some keys facors, effecs are he same for all caegores of farmers. Bu for ohers, resuls vary from one caegory of farmer o anoher. For each ype of farmer, margnal effecs are evaluaed compared o a farmer s household of reference whn hs caegory whch s close o he mean household characerscs of ha sample. Table 6 gves some characerscs of he farmer s household of reference for each caegory. Larger amouns of self-suffcency and ne ransfers receved are recorded for he mean large farmer compared o he oher caegores. Lvesock ncome s hgher for he mean medum farmer caegory han for he larger one. The mean household sze of hs laer s larger han for he oher ypes of farmer and he mean head of household age also. The varable relaed o gender ( sex ) s supposed o ake he value 1 for men and 0 for women. For farmers who have a leas prmary school level, he value of hs varable s se o 1 and 0 f no. For each area of resdence, he value s se o 1 f he WHAT ARE THE FACTORS OF FOOD INSECURITY AMONG FARMERS? Tables 7 and 8 provde resuls of he key facors of food nsecury and her margnal effecs. Among facors negavely affecng he saus of farmers facng food nsecury, household sze exers a larger negave effec for all groups of farmers. In fac, s posvely and sgnfcanly n relaon wh he probably of beng affeced as refleced by he p-value. Hence, whn each caegory of farmer, he analyss of margnal effecs shows ha an ncrease of he household sze of groups of farmers sufferng from food nsecury or groups whch are under food nsecury vulnerably rases her probably of beng affeced by food nsecury compared o he saus of he respecve farmer s household of reference as refleced by he p-value. Lvng n rural agro-ecologcal area of groundnu basn and Casamance also sgnfcanly ncreases for all groups of farmers he rsk of beng affeced by food nsecury. For small farmers under food nsecury vulnerably, he rsk

7 Cabral 483 Table 8. Sensveness of he probably of food nsecury wh respec o facors. Facors Households no sufferng from food nsecury Households under food nsecury vulnerably Households sufferng from food nsecury Food nsecury Coeffcen P > z Coeffcen P > z Coeffcen P > z Small farmers Sze Age Self-consumpon 2.36e e e Sex Lvesock ncome 1.96e e e Ne ransfers 4.43e e e Prmary school Groundnu bel Casamance Rver area Easern area Pasure area Medum farmers Sze Age Self-consumpon 1.20e e e Sex Lvesock ncome 4.88e e e Ne ransfers 1.22e e e Prmary school Groundnu bel Casamance Rver area Easern area Pasure area Larger farmers Sze Age Self-consumpon 1.45e e e Sex Lvesock ncome 7.73e e e Ne ransfers 7.29e e e Prmary school Groundnu bel Casamance Rver area Easern area Pasure area Sources: Esmaons. s jus hgher for hose lvng n Casamance, due ceranly o he guerlla warfare n hs par of he counry whch s supposed o have an effec on local rural acves whereas he farmers of he groundnu bel are facng decreasng profably of he groundnu acvy and s mpac on local rural economy. Lvng n rural easern area also ends o specfcally ncrease he rsk for medum and large farmers. Age has also an adverse effec on food nsecury saus bu jus for he caegory of small farmers. Insde hs group,

8 484 Afr. J. Food Sc. seems o ncrease he probably of food nsecury for he farmers under food nsecury as refleced by he margnal effecs. Those resuls are closed o he one of Zoyem e al. (2008) who found ha he man facors of food nsecury are: The area of resdence, he physcal aspecs (land, anmals) and soco-economc varables whn whch household sze, professonal occupaon, educaon, menal or physcal dsably. REDUCING FACTORS OF FOOD INSECURITY RISKS The rsk of food nsecury s sgnfcanly reduced by oher facors. Dversfcaon of ncome and/or consumpon s esmaed by many varables proxes. However, deermnng facors of such aude are revealed o be reducng food nsecury facors hrea n he farmers households. Consequenly, self-suffcency and ransfers sgnfcanly reduce he hrea of food nsecury among all groups of farmers compared o he respecve farmer s household of reference. Ths s refleced by he margnal effecs whch show a sgnfcan effec of hose wo keys facors on reducng he probably of beng affeced by food nsecury. For he caegory of larger and small farmers, revenues colleced from lvesock are also consderable reducers of food nsecury rsk for hose wo groups. Bu nsde he small farmer caegory, he laer resul s jus obvous for he group of hose sufferng from food nsecury and s submed o a sgnfcan level of 15% of he p-value. Gender for small farmers and age for medum farmers also seems o play a key role regardng o he saus of food nsecury of hose wo caegores. For small farmers, as shown by he margnal effecs, food nsecury rsks are smaller when he head of he farm s a man han when he head s a woman. Hence, n small farms, women seem o be more exposed o food nsecury han men. For medum farmers, age ends o reduce he probably of food nsecury bu jus among he group of hose close o he lne of food nsecury ha s hose under vulnerably. Those resuls are no oo far from he one of Garre and Ruel (2009) who found, whle comparng he deermnans of food secury and nuronal saus n rural and urban areas of Mozambque ha he ncdence of food nsecury was hgher for households relyng on socal ad, sngle paren famles headed by women, enans and chldren. Dscusson and Concluson The household survey daa analyss shows ha food nsecury s ypcally a rural phenomenon n Senegal. The greaes majory of Senegalese households sufferng from food nsecury are mosly encounered n rural areas. We mus hen pu he emphass on he face of povery as a maer of food provson for rural farmers. The purpose of hs research was o denfy he key food nsecury facors among farmers, usng an ordered mulnomal model. The resuls show ha household sze s a key deermnng facor for all farmers, no maer wha he sze of her propery s. I became evden ha ncome and consumpon dversfcaon proxes lke ne ransfers for all caegores of farmers and lvesock ncome for small and larger farmers also reduce he probably of food nsecury. Tha rsk s also sgnfcanly and hardly dmnshed by self-suffcency n agrculural and pasoral goods for all farmers. I s also safe o conclude ha ceran agro-ecologcal areas of resdence play a key deermnng role n regards o farmer s food nsecury saus, dependng on he sze of her farms. Wha explans hose resuls? On one hand, he Senegalese agrculural secor s more labour nensve hus enlargng he sze of he household s one of he sraeges developed by farmers o face he labour consran. Ths has n urn an adverse effec on he saus of he whole household n regards o food secury. On he oher hand, as he Senegalese agrculural secor s manly dependng on ranfall, farmers are very affeced by rsks due o ranfall defc and s lack of regulary. Then, dversfed ncome seems o be a key sraegy agans adverse effecs of uncerany on Senegalese farmers ncome and, hence, expendure. Lvesock s one of he mos mporan acves n he agrculural secor as manly conrbues o delver he core added value of ha secor. So farmers dealng wh lvesock acvy are more wllng o dversfy and enhance her ncomes. Ths also explans why he rsk of food nsecury s so sensve o lvesock earnngs, especally for he small and large farmers for whom he amouns are less han he one colleced by medum farmers. Selfsuffcency s a curren behavour of rural households n Senegal. I gves he opporuny for households o ake away a par of her baske consumpon from he adverse effecs of prce volaly. Regonal facors are also nfluencng he food nsecury probably. Farmers from he agro-ecologcal areas dependng on ran and where producers generally canno have agrculural acves no more han hree monh a year are hose more exposed o food nsecury and vulnerably. Ths rases for polcymakers he need o gve he opporuny o farmers o accede o rrgaon waer all year long whch wll nduced several harvess per year and hence more cash-flows opporunes. Ths sudy hghlghed ha he mos mporan facors of food nsecury among farmers reles manly on ncome and/or consumpon (proxed by selfconsumpon, earnngs from lvesock and ne ransfers), demographcs such as household sze and agroecologcal deermnans refleced by regonal dspares. Wha are he major polcy lessons? Our analyss demonsraes ha dversfed sources of ncome are an essenal deermnan of food nsecury, hough ncomegeneraon s undoubedly mporan for achevng food

9 Cabral 485 secury among Senegalese farmers. Suppor of socal asssance programs n rural areas n Senegal, such as food asssance and socal labour nensve programs, wll also be useful n a shor erm for hose who canno parcpae n he labour marke. Increases n ncome wll have large pay-offs n erms of reducng food nsecury n Senegal. Our resuls ndcae ha large household sze has a negave effec on food nsecury. So aenon should also be dreced a aenuang hese condons. Hgher levels of educaon wll over me probably lead o reducons n ferly and brh plannng, resulng n smaller household szes as hghlghed by some fndngs n he case of Senegal (Dagne, 2007). So governmen can nvolve drec acons ha can n he shorer erm, also asss famles n exercsng her preferences n hs area. In he meanme, socal asssance programs should be sure o ake no accoun he addonal needs of larger households. Tryng also o undersand specfc agro-ecologcal condons of farmers can help polcymakers denfy whch of he key programs o address. More generally, creang programs and makng polces ha are flexble and reflec he needs, condons, and resources n each rural area s que a challenge for polcy makers. Cabral FJ (2005). Accord agrcole e redsrbuon des revenus en mleu rural au Sénégal : essa de smulaon à l ade d un modèle d équlbre général calculable, Thèse de Docora d Ea, FASEG/UCAD, Dakar. Demery lt, Adson T (1987). Food nsecury and adjusemen polces n Sub-saharan Afrca : A revew of he evdence, Developmen polcy revew (SAGE, London, Newbury Park, Beverly Hlls and New Delh), 5: Dagne A (2007). Invesor n human capal: Afrcan Developmen Rev. Drecon de la prévson e de la sasque (2004). La pauvreé au Sénégal : de la dévaluaon de 1994 à , Mnsère de l économe e des fnances / Banque mondale. Drecon de la prévson e de la sasque (2001). Enquêe sénégalase auprès des ménages (ESAM I), Mnsère de l économe e des fnances, Dakar. FAO/SMIAR (2003). Rappor sur l'afrque, no. 3. Hazgu I (2008). Un doublemen des prx des céréales en 8 mos», Maxwell S, Frankenberger TR (1995). Household Food Secury: Conceps, Indcaors, Measuremens. A Techncal revew. UNICEF, IFAD. Mckey J, Green land S (1989). A sudy of he mpac of confounderselecon crera on effec esmaon. Am. J. Epdemol. 129: Saaz JM, D Agosno VC, Sundberg S (1990). Measurng food secury n Afrca : concepual, emprcal and polcy ssues. Am. J. Agrc. Econ., 12: Zegler J (2005). L'Empre de la hone, Fayard. REFERENCES Bendel RB, Aff AA (1977). Comparson of soppng rules n forward regresson. J. Am. Sa. Assoc., 72: Boccanfuso DFJ, Cabral L, Savard (2005). The analyss of he mpacs and he lberalzaon de of small farms n Sénégal : a module general mul-ménages, Afrca Perspecve hp:// 1(1):