USING DNA FINGERPRINTING TO ESTIMATE THE DIFFUSION OF IMPROVED CROP VARIETIES IN ETHIOPIA
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1 USING DNA FINGERPRINTING TO ESTIMATE THE DIFFUSION OF IMPROVED CROP VARIETIES IN ETHIOPIA Greg Traxler Chilot Yirga Tizale Mariana Kim Dawit Alemu Presented at the Organized Symposium Improving the methods of measuring varietal adoption by farmers in developing countries: Recent experience with the use of DNA fingerprinting and implications for tracking adoption and assessing impacts at the 29th International Conference of Agricultural Economists, Milan, Italy, August 9-14, 2015
2 What Do We Know about Farmer Use of Improved Varieties? Dalrymple Documentation of the Green Revolution Modern Varieties Evenson and Gollin (1998) Global estimates of diffusion and impact of individual CGIAR varieties Diffusion and Impact of Improved Varieties in Africa (DIIVA, 2010) Diffusion assessed for 20 crops, 30 SSA countries, 1150 cultivars All current estimates of variety use are based on variety identification from Expert Opinion or Farmer Surveys Estimates using these approaches suffer from unknown amount and direction of bias and lack of standard errors of estimates These are the dependent variables in all existing variety adoption studies Ballpark estimates useful for general studies of Agricultural Development Not useful for monitoring crop improvement progress, seed system effectiveness, or for planning for seed multiplication and distribution
3 Pilot Study Questions Is DNA fingerprinting a viable technical approach? 1. Can DNA fingerprinting discriminate among closely related varieties? 2. Can the identify be preserved for 100 s of samples through field collection, DNA extraction and lab analysis? 3. Can sample contamination and biological degradation be controlled? 4. Are costs per sample low enough to show promise for widespread use in monitoring diffusion? 5. Do diffusion estimates differ from farmer survey estimates? 6. What is the level of interest in key institutions in using fingerprinting?
4 The Pilot Study Area: Oromiya Region of Ethiopia Sub-national sample is not representative of Ethiopia, but Oromiya accounts for 70% of wheat and 58% of maize output The Agriculture Sample Survey (AgSS). Central Statistical Agency (CSA) conducts an annual crop cut survey of samples for each major crop Single digit estimates of use of improved varieties
5 Matching Farmer Survey and DNA Fingerprinting Information Crop Cuts & AgSS Surveys Sample Delivery Extraction Genotyping
6 Steps 1. Construct DNA Reference Library DArT using EIAR & private sector breeder seed 2. Collect farm samples CSA 3. Extract DNA EIAR Holeta 4. DNA Fingerprinting DArT 5. Analysis of fingerprinting EIAR ss & IFPRI Institutions Diversity Arrays Technology Pty Ltd ("DArT') - Australia Central Statistical Agency (CSA) Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) Social Science Unit Biotechnology Unit Holeta Crop Improvement Programs Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation IFPRI Technical Choices 1. Leaf vs. grain 2. Fingerprinting approach & partner 3. Variety Match Definition (% purity)
7 Number of Wheat and Maize Variety Releases by Decade Year Wheat Maize OPV Maize Hybrid Total Maize Before Total Number of Samples in Releases Reference Library and Number of Samples Collected from Farmers Wheat Maize Total Variety release reference library DNA Samples Collected from Farmers
8 DNA Library results - Clear discrimination among 75 wheat and 39 maize reference varieties WHEAT: 92% Avg. purity MAIZE: 78% Avg. purity Size of the sphere for each reference represents diversity within it Distance between centers represents genetic distance between cultivars/references
9 Comparing Farmer Response to DNA Fingerprinting WHEAT Farmer Response DNA Number of Varieties Identified Farmer Declares Using MV 47% Farmer Declared Variety is on Release List 55% 96% % Farmers Correctly Identifying Variety 33% Average Purity of DNA 92% 70% purity cutoff MAIZE Farmer Response DNA Number of Varieties Identified Farmer Declares Using MV 57% Farmer Declared Variety is on Release List 44% 61% % Farmers Correctly Identifying Variety 30% Average Purity of DNA 78%
10 Cost-Estimates Main Cost Components Survey Costs Can tissue sample collection be piggybacked on existing surveys? Sampling strategy Timing and Leaf vs. Grain sample DNA Extraction from collected samples $2-$10 DNA fingerprinting Analysis Costs: 1. Reference Library: $400 per variety (one-time) 2. Field samples: $30-$50 3. At scale, commercial provider: $5-$20
11 Pilot Study Questions Is DNA fingerprinting a viable technical approach? 1. Can DNA fingerprinting discriminate among closely related varieties? 2. Can the identify be preserved for 100 s of samples through field collection, DNA extraction and lab analysis? 3. Can sample contamination and biological degradation be controlled? 4. Are costs per sample low enough to show promise for widespread use in monitoring diffusion? 5. Do diffusion estimates differ from farmer survey estimates? 6. What is the level of interest in key institutions in using fingerprinting? CGIAR centers National agricultural research systems National statistical agencies Donors
Overview of the Organized Symposium # OS 06-02: Symposia 6 29 th International Conference of Agricultural Economists Milan, Italy, August 9-14, 2015
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