The Emerging Fertilizer Value Chain in Africa: Essential for Commercial Smallholder Agriculture

Transcription

1 The Emerging Fertilizer Value Chain in Africa: Essential for Commercial Smallholder Agriculture Pedro A Sanchez Research Professor of Tropical Soils Soil & Water Sciences Department University of Florida Gainesville, FL pedrosanchez@ufl.edu Commercial Agriculture in Tropical Environments Third International Food Security Symposium University of Illinois April

2 Africa is huge. Sub-Saharan Africa is rich in resources But still full of poor people

3 Chirazuru, Malawi 2002 There is a link between unhealthy soils and unhealthy people PA Sanchez, MS Swaminathan The Lancet 365: The Poverty Trap: Poor soils result in low yields and low household capital. Low household capital prevents investments in soil nutrients, which is a primary constraint on soil productivity. CB Barrett, LEM Bevis Nature Geoscience 8:

4 SS Africa 1 16 Latin America 3 48 South & Southeast Asia 3 48 China, South Africa 5 80 N. America, Europe, Japan Sanchez Nature Plants 1: 1-2.

5 Why? There is a major biophysical reason and a major economic reason 1. Soil fertility depletion is extreme in smallholder farms in Africa; the key entry point is not improved varieties or water but replenishing soil nutrients. Known this for decades*. 2. A broken or nonexistent value chain: *See new study by Folberth et al, Agricultural Systems 119:

6 21 st Century African Green Revolution

7 AGRA created in 2006 by the Gates and Rockefeller Foundations

8 Tipping points Better Governance 2006 AGRA Forum 2012: A Movement The Private Sector Moves In 2006

9 Private Sector Involvement Overcame allergy from UN and some governments. Refined Objective: From small-scale subsistence farming to farming as a business. New Paradigm: Private sector-led, government-enabled development.

10 Strategy

11 Two Legs SEED FERTILIZER

12 One Leg Good Seed No Fertilizer Mwandama, Malawi 2013

13 One Leg Bad Seed with Fertilizer Chaffa Valley, Ethiopia 2003

14 Two Legs Good Seed and Good Fertilizer Sauri, Kenya 2005

15 No Legs Bad seed, no fertilizer Sauri, Kenya 2002

16 Seed Systems: Successful value chain

17 Fertilizer Value Chain Public Sector+ donors Private Sector+ financing 1. Databases/Soil Maps 2. Soil Testing/Recommendations 3. Crop response/field verification 4. Blenders 5. Agrodealers 6. Extension 7. Farmers 8. Feedback

18 Link 1 Put together databases of soil maps and fertilizer response trials. Soil Maps where responses to individual nutrients are expected.

19 AfSIS: Digital Map of Soil Properties 0-5 cm 5 15 cm cm cm cm cm Effective depth Digital maps of soil properties are now available but algorithms are needed to correlate the different methods Spectroscopy cannot yet detect soil test extractions Sanchez et al Science, 385:

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21 Link 2 SoilDoc: A portable lab in a box. Uses batteries, bottled water available all over Africa and an Android tablet

22 Sending results to the cloud 22

23 Link 3: Crop Response Trials; Recommendations Domain: Agrodealer s working areas (10 30 km). Recommend formulas: 1-3 blends Recommended rates specific for different crops.

24 Link 4: Blending Plants Import or use local raw materials and blend locally, providing flexibility Fertilizer recommendations formulated for specific agrodealer domains.

25 Link 5: Agrodealers: Training, Certification, Technical Advice Agrodealers trained in fertilizers and seeds sell to farmers.

26 Link 6: A New Generation of Private Extension Workers

27 Link 7: Farmers Getting the right message on crops, agronomy, etc. Up to date, cellphone-based fertilizer recommendations Include Biologically Active Carbon recommendation and ways to eliminate soil compaction Farmer associations warehouse receipts Electronic wallet

28 Cereal Banks: doubling prices Price ksh/90 kg bag: At farm gate (August 05): 700 Cereal bank sold (April 06): 1450

29 Yala Market Center of Sauri Millennium Village

30 No longer growing maize Sauri, Kenya 2015

31 Young people get into business

32 Link 8: Feedback Feedback via social media will rate the fertilizer recommendations, and performance of individual agrodealers their farmers and extension workers. Crop yield data will be estimated from farmers plus agronomic use efficiency (kg grain/ kg of nutrient fertilizer applied), and value to cost ratios.

33 Progress Commitment: Increase from 8 to 50kg/ha NPK by 2015 Results: Malawi: 48 kg/ha NPK Zambia: 43 Mozambique: 10 Peter Crauford and Bernard Vanlauwe - Nov 2016

34 Fertilizer use (kgnpk/ha) Time Time Mozambique Malawi Zambia From Peter Crauford and Bernard Vanlauwe - Nov 2016

35 Maize yield (ton/ha) Mozambique Malawi Zambia Fertilizer use (kg/ha) From Peter Crauford and Bernard Vanlauwe - Nov 2016

36 FA0STAT :1.55

37 Improve Efficiency Low agronomic use efficiency: 15 kg grain/kg N; Must increase agronomic use efficiency to 25 kg grain/kg N applied. Cereal yields should reach 3 tons/ha or equivalents. Good agronomy: planting date, spacing, seed density, inputs arriving on time, etc. Move to high-value crops and livestock products. Climate change adaptation: By increasing yields from 1 to 3 tons/ha plant transpiration from soil moisture is doubled or tripled. Organic fertilizers need financial stimulus

38 Climate change is with us Glacier coverage on Mount Kilimanjaro. Thompson (2010)

39 Adaptation: Increasing yields in Africa can improve water use efficiency 1 ton/ha 3 tons/ha 87% E

40 How about Organic Fertilizers? Tephrosia fallow: a nitrogen factory right in her field Captures 150 kg N/ha Worth $130 Recycles K, micronutrients Adds carbon

41 Financing N-fixing Inputs. How? Credits Subsidies Rewards?

42 The Economist March 12, 2016 The farms of Africa are prospering at least thanks to persistence, technology and decent government