MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND THE AFRICAN FOOD CRISIS

Transcription

1 MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND THE AFRICAN FOOD CRISIS TANZANIA MACRO REPORT: ADDRESSING NATIONAL FOOD SELF SUFFICIENCY Aida Isinika Gasper Ashimogo MARCH 2009

2 THE MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND THE AFRICAN FOOD CRISIS TANZANIA MACRO REPORT ADDRESSING NATIONAL FOOD SELF SUFFICIENCY Aida Isinika Gasper Ashimogo MARCH 2009

3 Executive Summary This study examines macro-economic aspects, which have influenced the trend of food production in Tanzania. This is the second in a series of panel studies conducted under the research project (Afrint I) to assess the African food crisis and national efforts to achieve food self-sufficiency for main staple crops. The current study follows after the first study, which was conducted in 2002/03 involving seven other countries 1, in comparison with the green revolution as experienced in several Asian countries 2 to achieve food self sufficiency. The study assessed the role of the state, markets and smallholder farmers in food production for self-sufficiency. The findings established that almost all African countries in the study had experiences some spurts of agricultural intensification (a limping green revolution), but none had attained sustained food self-sufficiency because the policies and institutions were not consistent in supporting smallholder farmers to participate in food production. Moreover, there was no market mediation to ameliorate the negative impacts of a globalizing world. A number of lessons were drawn from the Asian experience. The current study (Afrint II) examines the progress Tanzania has made since 2002/03 to achieve the millennium development goals in relation to addressing the African food crisis. The study looks at macro policies and institutional aspects as they have affected the production and distribution of maize and rice, the main staple crops. This study is complemented by micro level data, which was collected from the same Afrint I villages (in 5 villages from Iringa region and 5 villages in Morgoro region), largely involving the same respondents or their offspring whenever possible. Data for this macro-study was collected from secondary sources and discussion with key informants in key government Ministries and other agricultural institutions. This report begins by examining the macro policies, which have been developed by the government to guide agricultural transformation. The Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (ASDS) of 2001 and the Agricultural Sector Development Programme (ASDP), which became operational in 2004/05 are designed to transform agriculture towards a market orientation, implying the both agricultural inputs and produce will be guided by the forces of supply and demand. While food selfsufficiency is not mentioned explicitly, it is implied in the sense that the ASDP intends to improve productivity and hence achieve agricultural intensification of all crops. Section 3 of the report examines the trend of production for major food crops including maize, rice, sorghum and cassava. The analysis shows that the contribution of agriculture to GDP has been declining as other sectors (mining and tourism) have grown at a faster rate during the last ten years. These same sectors are however likely to be negatively impacted by the ongoing financial crisis. In the case of agriculture, the use of improved inputs remains low, despite government efforts to expand the provision of subsidized inputs to cover more regions and more inputs (fertilizer and seed). Since 2008, the government has designated six regions (Iringa, Mbeya, Rukwa, Ruvuma, Morogoro and Kigoma) as food baskets, where efforts will be 1 The African countries involved in the Afrint I study are; Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Malawi, Zambia, Nigeria and Ghana. For Afrint II Mozambique has been added 2 The Asian countries covered in Afrint I include; Japan, Taiwan and Korea in East Asia; India, Indonesia and Philippines in South Asia; ii

4 directed to increase use of improved inputs and develop irrigation infrastructure. The outcome of such efforts will be observed in the medium and long run. Restoration of subsidized inputs seems to be having some impact on improving the yield of maize in the country but the rate of productivity increase remains weak, and highly dependent on rainfall availability. In the case of rice, there is no sustained productivity improvement as there is very low use of improved seed and hardly any use of fertilizer except for a few farmers, especially in the lake zone (Mwanza, Shinyanga) who use farmyard manure. Sorghum has experiences a slight yield gain, especially in Morogoro region, where more farmers are now using improved seed varieties, that are released by the zonal research station at Ilonga, and more readily available in input supply shops. Cassava likewise shows only a gradual improvement in yield. The national self sufficiency ration (SSR) for six year (2001/ /07) is 100, which is marginal, considering that agriculture in Tanzania remains highly dependent on rains. Projections on the effect of climate change on Tanzania show that some parts will receive more rains while the north eastern parts of the country expect and have been experiencing rainfall below normal. The role of the state is discussed in terms of; providing subsidies, price support and import protection, providing investments and support services, agricultural credit, privatization of agricultural parastatal organizations, development of agricultural markets and use of World Trade Organization (WTO) opportunities. The study also looks at legislation and development initiatives agricultural markets including promoting and supporting producer organizations and contract farming. The study also examines the role of the government to promote and support the involvement of the private sector, specifically looking at the achievements and challenges of ongoing policy reforms in relation for protection for local industries, land tenure, taxation, interest rates, infrastructure development, labour cost, inflation and the legal framework. The findings show that while, some improvements are noted in the implementation of the ASDP, the programme also faces many challenges, including under funding, limited capacity at the local level to utilize effectively funds that have been availed to them. There are district, which have returned funds to the treasury because they could not use them, thus negating previous complaints that funding was the most limiting factor. It seems the capacity to plan and coordinate implementation of an effective and transformatory agricultural programme is a serous constraint, which must be addressed. iii

5 Table of Contents Executive Summary. List of Tables and Figures List of abbreviations. Page ii v vi 1.0 Introduction Background Objectives of Afrint II Methodology Macro policies for agricultural transformation Production Trends of major crops The state of agriculture Sector-wide aspects Land Use Agricultural labour force Crop production Use of technologies Production and productivity trends of major crops Maize production and productivity Paddy production and productivity Sorghum production and productivity Cassava production and productivity Food intensification and food self sufficiency The role of the state Use of policy instruments Subsidy on fertilizer Subsidy on improved seed Price support and import protection Commodity price trend Providing investments and support services Budget allocation to various sub-sectors Allocation of public funds for agriculture Agricultural credit Privatization of agricultural parastatals Development of agricultural markets and trade Terms of trade Use of WTO instruments and opportunities Legislation and development programmes on agricultural markets 38 iv

6 5.4 Smallholder farmers access to markets Producer organizations Contract farming Private sector development support Policy and institutional reforms Implementing policy reforms: achievements and challenges Protection Land tenure Taxation and interest rates Infrastructure Cost of utilities and labour Inflation Legal framework Investments in new areas Summary of findings.. 52 v

7 List of Tables and Figures Page Table 1 Comparison of contribution of agriculture to GDP 5 Table 2 Key national account statistics 6 Table 3 Actual and potential yield for major food crops. 14 Table 4 Number of regions by SSR during 2005/06 15 Table 5 National food security status.. 15 Table 6 Quality of imported fertilizer: Table 7 Subsidized fertilizer sold in Tanzania (mainland): Table 8 Quantity of Available and Used Improved Seed: 2001/ / Table 9 SGR maize stock and releases as a percentage of marketed volume. 20 Table 10 Relative allocation of government budget to different sub-sectors 24 Table 11 Purpose of ASDP Grants to LGAs 28 Table 12 Estimated agriculture sector medium term expenditure framework (MTEF) (Billion Tshs) 29 Table 13 Composition of Agricultural Extension Service Providers. 31 Table 14 Credit issued under Agricultural Inputs Trust Fund by Region 32 Table 15 Tanzania Food Self Sufficiency Ratio 36 Table 16 Trade in maize and rice: Table 17 Prioritized areas for transport infrastructure development. 44 Table 18 Trends of trunk and regional roads condition. 45 Table 19 Maintenance of railways of ports and railways.. 46 Figure 1 Maize production and productivity (National) 9 Figure 2 Maize production and productivity in Iringa And Morogoro: 1998/ /06 10 Figure 3 Paddy production and productivity (National) 11 Figure 4 Paddy production and productivity (Morogoro and Iringa) 11 Figure 5 Sorghum production and productivity (national) 12 Figure 6 Sorghum production and productivity (Iringa and Morogoro) 12 Figure 7 Production of cassava (National) 13 Figure 8 Production and yield of cassava (Iringa and Morogoro) 13 Figure 9 Trend in the supply and availability of fertilizer in Mainland Tanzania 17 Figure 10 All improved seed: Quantity of available and used 18 Figure 11 Quantity of Maize seed used 18 Figure 12 Quantity of improved rice and sorghum used 19 Figure 13 Imports of improves seed 19 Figure 14 Average wholesale nominal and real price of maize 23 Figure 15 Average wholesale nominal and real price of rice 23 Figure 16 Average wholesale nominal and real price of sorghum 24 Figure 17 Average wholesale nominal and real price of cassava 24 Figure 18 Real ministerial expenditure for agriculture 25 Figure 19 Real ministerial expenditure for transport and communication 25 Figure 20 Commercial banks lending to agriculture: vi

8 Figure 21 Terms of trade for Tanzania: Figure 22 Ratio of value of exports to imports: Figure 23 Routine maintenance cost of TAA from 2002/ /05 45 Figure 24 Inflation rate vii

9 List of Abbreviations A-CBG ADT AEBG AEDG AGRA AITF ASDP ASDS ASLM ASMDP CAADP CBOs CORDEMA CSOs DABG DASIP DCBG DDPs DFF DIDF ECA EPAs FAO GAD GDP HIV/AIDS IFAD IMF LGAs LGCDG MAC MAFC MAFSC MDG MFI MITM MKUKUTA MKUZA MLD MOU MT MVIWATA NBS NEPAD NESP NGO NIDF NSGPR O&OD Agricultural Capacity Building Grant Animal Drawn Technology Agricultural Extension Block Grant Agricultural Extension Development Grant African Green Revolution Agricultural Input Trust Fund Agricultural Sector Development Programme Agricultural Sector Development Strategy Agricultural Sector Lead Ministries Agricultural Sector Marketing Development Programme Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme Community Based Organizations Client Oriented Research and Management Development Civil Society Organizations District Agricultural Block Grant District Agricultural Sector Investment Project Discretionary Capacity Building Block Grant District Development Plans District Facilitation Fund District Irrigation Development Fund East African Community Economic Partnership Agreements Food and Agriculture Organization Gender and Development Gross Domestic Product Human Immune Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome International Fund for Agricultural Development International Monetary Fund Local Government Authorities Local Government Capacity Development Grant Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security Ministry of Agriculture Food Security and Cooperatives Millennium Development Goals Micro-Finance Institution Ministry of Industries Trade and Marketing Mpango wa Kukuza Uchumi na Kuondoa Umaskini Mpango wa Kukuza Uchumi Zanzibar Ministry of Livestock Development Memorandum of Understanding Metric Tons Mtandao wa Vikundi vya Wakulima Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics New Partnership for Africa's Development National Poverty Eradication Strategy Non-Governmental Organization National Irrigation Development Fund National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty Opportunities and Obstacles to Development viii

10 OPV Open Pollinated Varieties PMO-RALG Prime Minister's Office - Regional Administration and Local Government PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSRP Parastatal Sector Reform Commission RDS Rural Development Strategy RNAE01 Revised National Account Estimates for 2001 SACCOS Savings and Credit Cooperative Society SGR Strategic Grain Reserve SNA System of National Account SP Special Product SSM Special Safeguard Mechanism TAZARA Tanzania Zambia Railway TDV Tanzania Development Vision TPRI Tanzania Pesticide Research Institute TRC Tanzania Railway Corporation TRCL Tanzania Railway Corporation Limited URT United Republic of Tanzania USAID United States International Development VAT Value Added Tax WFF Ward Facilitation Fund WTO World Trade Organization ZADEF Zonal Agricultural Development Fund ix

11 ADDRESSING NATIONAL FOOD SELF SUFFICIENCY IN TANZANIA: Introduction 1.1 Background The first of this series of research reports 3 on the African Food Crisis reviewed, trends in the production of maize and rice in Tanzania covering a forty-year period from independence up to the beginning of the new millennium ( ), presenting an analysis of the situation of food supply in Tanzania over that period. Specifically, the study compared the policy implications and impacts of various factors on local and national food production, particularly focusing on the main cereal food staples (maize and rice). The study compared data on production, yields, and inputs, and on policy and institutional aspects as they prevailed before and after economic structural adjustment, which came into force in The analysis established that, crop production yields and output declined or improved depending on the extent to which prevailing macroeconomic and sector policies were designed to promote and sustain agricultural intensification. However, due to the adhoc nature of most policies, coupled with frequent policy reversal (stop-go), the net effect of such policy and institutional changes on production improvement were not met, and food self sufficiency remained illusive both at the farm level as well as at the aggregate national level. The year 1994 marked the completion of macro-economic reforms for economic liberalization, which were implemented under the supervision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Economic liberalizations under these reforms were expected to stimulate evolution of efficient market operations. However available data indicate for example that both the yield and production of maize showed declining trends from 1995 onwards. This situation forced the government to restore a limited subsidy on transport of fertilizer since On the basis of the study s findings, a number of recommendations were made for improvement, some of which have already been presented to districts and are now being implemented. It is against this background that this second study on the African Food Crisis is designed to examine efforts by the government of Tanzania, working in collaboration with local stakeholders (including smallholder farmers), development partners and the international community at large to achieve the millennium development goals, especially as they relate to addressing food insecurity, hunger and poverty 1.2 Objectives of Afrint II Following the World summit on sustainable development in 2002, the world, through different agencies has committed to pursue strategies, which will lead to the attainment of eight development goals, commonly referred to as the millennium development goals (MDGs), by the year The first goal (MDG1), which aims to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, is most relevant for this study. Also important 3 The report was titled; Africa in Transition: Macro Study for Tanzania 10

12 are MDG3, to promote gender equality and empower women, MDG6; to combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and diseases, MDG7; to ensure environmental sustainability. All these have implications on food production systems as they affect the labour force or the natural resource base. The remaining goals including those addressing; universal primary education (MDG2), reducing child mortality (MDG4), improving maternal health (MDG 5). They are also relevant for ensuring food self-sufficiency in the long run since they influence the quality of human capital, which is important for agricultural development. The last goal (MDG8) relates to developing a global partnership for development, which entails greater international cooperation and assistance by industrial countries to developing countries such as Tanzania. The aim of Afrint II is to identify factors that drive changes in staple crop production in the smallholder agricultural sector, which accounts for 70 90% of all farms in African countries, and over 60% of Africa s poor work primarily in agriculture (COMMESA -eastafrica.usad.gov). The study assessed the welfare impacts of policy and institutional changes as they impinge on households, especially on farmers during the first decade of this millennium. The analysis looks at the role of the state in relation to coordination with market forces to provide an enabling or disabling environment for farmers and the private sector to promote and foster agricultural transformation. 1.3 Methodology The conceptual framework for this study follows that of Afrint I by examining the role of the state and that of market forces to stimulate and accelerate (or discourage) smallholder farmer based agricultural transformation. The study examines policy changes that have been made by the government since 1995, which influence the production and investment decisions of actors in agriculture. The study then looks at the outcome of such actions by farmers as reflected on agricultural intensification (or lack of it) in terms of area planted and harvested, yields and total production for maize and rice, the main staple cereals in Tanzania. Data are also provided for other important food crops, including sorghum, cassava millets and legumes. The study examines the environment within which actors in agriculture, including smallholder farmers, traders and processors make choices on what to produce, investment decisions, and how such decisions are shaped by government policies as well as those of donors and the prevailing geopolitical conditions. The study also examines how policy and institutional changes by the government and donors influenced the decisions of private sector actors (traders, processors, transporters, financial institutions and input suppliers), which in turn affects the options that are available to farmer. The report is presented in five key sections covering; Macroeconomic policies Production and productivity trends The role of the state Development of agricultural markets and trade Private sector development and support. Each section is discussed in light of the policy and institutional environment, and how these impact on the decisions and actions of actors in the sector, especially in relation to food self sufficiency and poverty reduction. 11

13 2.0 Macro Policies for Agricultural Transformation Tanzania has laid down the macro-economic framework within which economic and social development is expected to occur. The most overriding is the national vision, which states the desire to transform the economy from the current underdeveloped status to a middle level developing country by 2025, at which time five goals would be achieved. These include; (i) high quality livelihood, (ii) peace stability and unity, (iii) good governance, (iv) a well-educated and learned society and (v) a competitive economy capable of producing growth and shared benefits. In order to achieve the national vision, the government; in consultation with stakeholders has developed strategies at various levels. The Strategy for growth and Reduction of Poverty (SGRP) more commonly known by its acronym in Kiswahili (MKUKUTA 4 for the mainland and MKUZA 5 in Zanzibar) is currently being implemented ( ) as a step towards realising longer term the national vision. Other macro-policies, which have been developed for the same purpose include; The national poverty eradication strategy [NESP (1998)] Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper [NPRSP - ( )] Rural development policy [RDP - (2000)] and strategy The NSGRP takes the outcomes approach where the thrust of development efforts is to realize outputs in three key areas; referred to as cluster outcomes and goals. These include; (i) Growth and reduction of income poverty, (ii) Improved quality of life and social wellbeing, (iii) Good governance and accountability. All these policy efforts to realign the macro-economic policy framework have involved economic restructuring, which has shown positive impacts at the macro level. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has been above 6% since The annual inflation rate has been maintained below 5% since 2003 up to 2006, but has risen up to double digit since then, fuelled by rising global fuel and food prices. The exchange rate has been relatively stable while official foreign exchange earnings have grown, surpassing the target of having reserves to cover imports of goods and services enough for six months (NSGRP, 2005). Sector policies and strategies have also been developed to feed into the macro policies and strategies. Those relevant for agricultural transformation include; National Land Policy (1995) Tanzania Agricultural and Livestock Policy (1997) 6 National Small Enterprise Development Policy (2000) Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (2001) Cooperative development policy (2002) National Micro-finance policy (2002) The Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (ASDS) sets the framework for achieving the sector s objectives and targets, which contribute to MKUKUTA objectives and hence to the Tanzania Development Vision (TDV) To implement the ASDS, an Agricultural Sector Development Programme (ASDP) was developed by five Agricultural Sector Lead Ministries (ASLMs), namely: Ministry of 4 MKUKUTA stands for Mpango wa kukuza Uchumi na Kuondoa Umaskini 5 MKUUZA stands for Mpango wa Kukuza Uchumi Zanzibar 6 The agricultural policy is currently under review, and a new livestock policy is being developed 12

14 Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives (MAFC); Ministry of Livestock Development (MLD); Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM) and the Prime Minister s Office Regional Administration and Local Government (PMO- RALG). The programme has two main objectives; (i) To enable farmers to have better access to and foster improvement of agricultural knowledge, technologies, marketing systems and infrastructure all contributing to higher productivity, profitability and farm income, (ii) to promote private investments in agricultural based on an improved regulatory and policy environment. The ASDP comprises of two components; the Local Level Component and the National Level Component. Development activities at national level are based on the strategic plans of the line ministries while activities at district level are developed and implemented by Local Government Authorities (LGAs), based on District Agricultural Development Plans (DADPs) as part of the broader District Development Plans (DDPs). The objectives of DADPs are to; (i) (ii) Enable farmers to have better access to and use of agricultural knowledge, technologies, and market infrastructure; all contributing to higher productivity, profitability, and farm incomes; and Promote private investment based on an improved regulatory and policy environment The implementation of ASDP at the LGA level is clustered under three subcomponents: (i) Local agricultural investments, (ii) Local agricultural services, and (iii) Local agricultural capacity building and reform. All sub-components are planned and implemented through the DADPs process by the Local Government Authorities. All planning, implementation and monitoring processes are done at this level. The Ministries provide planning and implementation guidelines, which provide systematic guidance to LGAs in developing and implementing DADPs as envisioned in the Agricultural Sector Development Programme. Financing arrangements of the programme are discussed in section (iii) of this report. In addition to these global and national targets, Tanzania is also a signatory to a number of African regional agreements. For example, under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), that is coordinated by the African Union under the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD), a target national of 6% annual growth rate for agriculture has been set along with countries achieving at least 10% budgetary allocation to agriculture by Agriculture is defined to include crops, livestock, forestry and fishing. The CAADP has four main pillars, which include; Extending the area under sustainable management and reliable control systems Improving rural infrastructure and trade related capacities for market access Increasing food supply, reducing hunger, and improving responses to food emergency crises; and Improving agriculture research, technology dissemination and adoption (http/eastafrica.usaid.gov). 13

15 3.0 Production Trends of Major Food Crops 3.1 The State of Agriculture Sector-wide Aspects This review of the agricultural sector in Tanzania is largely based on the last Agricultural sample census, which was done in 2002/03 (URT 7, 2006) 8. Agriculture remains the largest sector in the economy, previously stated to contribute about 45% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Recently (2006) the government has revised statistics of the national account estimates, adopting the United Nations System of National Account (SNA) of The revised national account estimates uses 2001(RNAE01) 9 as the base year, to accommodate structural changes in the economy in terms of patterns of production, consumption and investment; also, to account for changes in relative price and to incorporate new available data among other things. According to the revised data in, 2006 the contribution of agriculture to GDP was 26.5% (Table 1), coming second after services which now account for 43.8% of the GDP, while industry and construction accounted for 21% (Table 2). The role of agriculture has declined due to the rise of new economic activities in the service sector (such as IT, finance) and some increase in the industrial and construction sectors, especially mining and construction. In this study we will provide reference on the system from which any statistic that is given was based. Table 1: Comparison: % Contribution of Agriculture to GDP Statistics Old National Accounts base year Revised National Acconts 2001 base year Source: URT ( ) Within agriculture, the last agricultural census (2002/03) shows that crop production still dominates accounting for accounting for 36.5% of the GDP (1992 base year). On the basis of the revised national accounts the contribution of crops to GDP was 19.4% in 2006, having declined from 22.6 in 1998 (NBS, 2006). The role of livestock and fishing remains small. Livestock accounted for only 4.9% in 2006, remaining almost the same since 1999, while fishing contributed 1.3% of the GDP in 2006, declining from 1.9% in 1998 and The revised statistics indicate that between 1998 and 2006, agriculture (including forestry, hunting and fishing) grew at about 4.2% on average ranging from 1.9% in 1998 to 5.9% in Crop production grew at the 7 URT stands for United Republic of Tanzania 8 The agricultural sample survey is supposed to be done every five years. Currently (2008/09) field data collection is ongoing for the next set of reports of the Agricultural Sample survey for which data will be available in Previously base years for the national account have been changed from 1966, to 1976, 1992 and now Some of the new changes under the revised statistics include (i) Reclassification of economic activities. (ii) Valuation of the gross value added is generated at basic prices, which account for all taxes paid as opposed to at factor cost which excludes taxes and subsidies on production 14

16 fastest rate at 4.46% on average over the same period, but the annual growth rate increased to 5.6% in 2002 declining again in 2003 and again in 2005 and 2006 largely due to changing rainfall conditions. Table 2: Key National Account Statistics Item Share (%) of GDP (At current prices) Crops Livestock Forestry and hunting Agriculture Fishing Industry & construction Services Gross value added before taxes Growth rate of economic activities (%) Crops Livestock Forestry and hunting Fishing Agriculture forestry, hunting and fishing Industry and construction Services National GDP The dominance of crop production as a source of livelihood is also reflected in the last agricultural census (2002/03), where 99% of the smallholder farming households were engaged in crop production compared to only 36% for livestock keeping. Also small farmers dominate accounting for more than 99% of the 4,903,043 farm holding. In 2002/03 there were only 1,206 farm holdings operating in the large-scale commercial sub-sector, mostly producing export crops. Hence the 4,901,837 smallscale farms produce almost all the food consumed in the country, especially cereals and grains. For the rest of this discussion, we will focus on the 4,805, 313 holdings operating in mainland Tanzania Land use In 2002/03, the national average size of smallholder farms was about 2.4 hectares per household, which includes 0.1 ha unusable, 0.3 ha unutilized, which leaves 2.0 ha available per household use. Deducting about 0.1 ha of fallow leaves translates to about 1.9 ha cultivated area per household on average. Smallholder farmers use 94.3% of the land available to them. Out of the area under small-scale agriculture in general, only 11.6% of the usable land is not used, of which some is under fallow (5.7%), rented (1.3%), unused (2.2%) and the rest is under natural bush (2.5%). Results from the agricultural census report that about 46% of the agricultural holding reported insufficient land, especially in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions (>70%). The corresponding figures for Iringa and Morogoro regions were 43% and 37% respectively. While the land available to smallholders has not changed significantly since the early 1990s, utilization has increased significantly as reflected by the 15

17 pressure on land (Isinika, 2007). Most of the land available to smallholders is owned and transferred under customary low (68%). This is followed by land that was bought (16%), rented (4%) and borrowed (3%). Only 5% of the land owned by smallholders has official certificates Agricultural labour force In 2002/03 there were more than four million households 10 who were engaged in agriculture, being 50% male and 50% female. The average household size was 5.2 ranging from 6.4 in Shinyanga to 4.0 in Mtwara. In Iringa and Morogoro, the corresponding figures were 4.4 and 4.7 respectively. The average literacy of the rural agricultural population in Tanzania was 59%, most people being literate in Kiswahili only (61.2%) while only 4.9% could read and write in Kiswahili and English. Literacy is highest in Kilimanjaro region (87%) followed by Dar-es-Salaam (76%) and Iringa (76%). Morogoro region ranked seventh, while Lindi and Tabora were at the bottom being 60% and 66% respectively. Men are more literate (71%) than women (62%) with large differences between regions. Meanwhile, only about 30% of the rural population aged 5 and above have completed some level of formal education, while 30% are still attending school. This means about 40% never attended school. The majority of household heads had primary education and only 4% had post primary education and 37% never had any education. Morogoro and Iringa were among the five regions on the lower end of the list. This poses serious challenge literacy and numeracy is important for agricultural transformation Rainfall pattern In Tanzania, there are two rainfall patterns. About 30% of the country received short rains (September January), followed by long rains (March June). The bimodal rainfall pattern occurs in the coastal regions from Mtwara, Lindi, Dar-es-Salaam, Pwani, Tanga and parts of Kilimanjaro region. Regions in the lake zone including Mwanza, Mara, Kagera and Kigoma) are also bimodal, while the remaining regions (Ruvuma, Iringa, Mbeya, Rukwa, Tabora, Singida, Dodoma, Shinyanga and Manyara) are unimodal, rains often last from around November to May or June. In 2002/03, land that was planted with annual crops during the long rains was 6,349,707 ha, equivalent to about 81%. It is estimated that average crop production during the short rains contributes more than one third of the cereals production per year, especially in the north-western part of the country (Mwanza, Kagera and Kigoma). On average, households planted 1.57 ha during the long rains, compared to 1.1ha in the short rains. Shinyanga region has the largest planted area per household (2.6 ha) compared to only 0.6 ha in Kilimanjaro, which had the lowest. Morogoro and Iringa regions had 1.2 and 1.4 ha respectively. 10 The Agricultural sample survey showed that in Mainland Tanzania there were 4,805,313 households, 24,743,990 people, being 12,303,187 male (50%) and 12,439,803 female (50%) 16

18 3.1.4 Crop Production In terms of planted area, maize is the most dominant crop, accounting for about 44% of the total area planted in 2002/03. Cassava comes second (11.1%) followed by beans (9.5%) and paddy (8.2%). Other crops are sorghum, cashewnuts, groundnuts, cotton, bananas, coffee and sweet potatoes. As is evident from the list, cereal crops occupy the largest area (61%) followed by tubers (14%), pulses (14%), oilseeds (7%) and traditional cash crops (5.1%). Meanwhile, the contribution of food crops to cash income is becoming more important. Selling food crops was reported as the main source of earning cash contributing about 37.4% of cash income among agricultural households, compared to only 17% from sale of cash crops, 15.1% from casual earnings and 9.4% from business. Selling food is particularly important in Kigoma(64%), Morogoro (54%), Kagera (54%), Mbeya (50%) and Ruvuma (49%). Rukwa and Iringa follow closely at about 48% Among cereals, maize occupies 44% of the planted area, and accounts for 72% of the area under cereals, while accounting for 74% of the total cereal production during the agricultural census year. Maize is followed by rice (17%), Sorghum (6%) and finger millet. Shinyanga region leads in term of area planted with cereals, accounting for 12.4 %, followed by Dodoma (10.5%, Tabora (7.31%), Morogoro (7.1%) and Mbeya (6.9%). Iringa region accounted for only 5.5% of the area under cereals ranking 8 th out of 21 regions in mainland Tanzania. While aggregate food production has generally trended upwards since 1995, this has occurred at a decreasing rate. Most of the increase has come from expansion of area under production Use of improved technologies The use of improved technologies for agricultural intensification is very low. For example, the total planted area under irrigation represents only about 2.7% of the land under annual crops. In Morogoro and Iringa regions, the corresponding figures were 11.2% and 4.2% respectively. These are lower than figures established during Afrint I (1999) where about 7% of the respondents in Morogoro reported using some form of irrigation. In Iringa however up to 48% reported using irrigation on at least one quarter of their maize farms. According to the agricultural census, maize and paddy account for about 66% of the irrigated area using different sources including; rivers (48%), canals (27%), wells (15%), dams (2%), piped water (2%) and boreholes (1%). Most of the households use flood irrigation (56%) and hand buckets (41%). Only about 2% use sprinkler irrigation and a negligible proportion use drip irrigation. After two years of implementing the Agricultural Sector Development Programme (ASDP) it is reported that the number of irrigation schemes have increased from 295 in 2006 to 679 in Likewise the area under irrigation has increased by 25,000 (0.9%) from 264,000 to 289,000 over the same period (Mlaki, 2008). Use of the hand hoe for cultivation and weeding is most predominant, accounting for about 56% of the planted area, followed by oxen (32%). Tractors account for only about 4% while 8% of the planted area falls under no till. Use of animal drawn technology (ADT) is most common in Shinyanga where about 65.4% of the planted area was cultivated using ADT, followed by Arusha (65.2%), Singida (63.4%), Rukwa (60.2%) and Manyara (50.7%). Use of oxen or donkeys is low in Morogoro 17

19 (9%) and moderate in Iringa (35.6%). Meanwhile, hand cultivation is common in these two regions being used by over 60% of the households. Use of improved seed is also very low. For example, only 16% of the planted area was recorded to have used improved seed during 2002/03, mostly in cereals and cash crops on 54% and 26% of the planted area respectively. The corresponding figures for other crop types (fruits and vegetables, oilseeds, roots and tubers) were less than 10%. In general, use of improved seed is higher for cash crops than other crops grown for subsistence. For this reason 82.1% of the area planted with traditional cash crops used improved seed. Also, 66.1% of the area under vegetables used improved seed. As reported during the last agricultural census (2002/03), for mainland Tanzania, the percentage of households using inorganic fertilizer is also very low as just about 24% of the households use any form of fertilizer including inorganic (5.8%), compost (2.5%), farmyard manure (16%). Only about 25% of the area planted with annual and permanent crops uses fertilizer. The absolute number as well as the proportion of households using inorganic fertilizer has declined from more than 22% in1994, when all types of subisides (direct and indirect were phased out). Most of the inorganic fertilizer is applied on cereals (accounting for 71% of the planted area applied with fertilizer) followed by permanent cash crops (11%), pulses (7%), and vegetables and fruits (5%). In all the regions, more than 40% of the households reported not using fertilizer, being highest in Morogoro (90.6%), followed by Rukwa (86%), Tanga (84.7%) and Kigoma (80.1%). In Iringa region about 46.5% of the households did not use fertilizer. The use agrochemicals is much lower. Insecticides are applied to only about 9% of the planted area in mainland Tanzania, and even lower for fungicides (2%) and herbicides (2%), mostly on cereals (53% of the planted area), permanent cash crops (28%), pulses (9%,) and fruits and vegetable (9%). However, insecticides are used more often (72% of the applied area) than fungicides (15%) and herbicides (13%) in mainland Tanzania. Iringa and Shinyanga regions had the highest planted area applied with agrochemicals, probably due to production of permanent cash crops (cotton and tobacco). Annual crops, especially maize, pulses and paddy are stored for 3-6 months to cover food security for 3 6 months, for sale and for seed. Maize is often stored in sacks. Other storage means include airtight drums and traditional structures. Over 80% of the households do not experience significant post harvest loss. Nonetheless losses of up to 25% were reported by some households especially on maize 7%), sorghum (5%), beans (4%), wheat (4%) and paddy (2%). More than 70% of the households sell their crops to earn cash income. 18

20 Area (ha); Production (tons) (,000) Yield (tons/ha) Area (ha); Production (tons) (,000) Yield (tons/ha) Area (ha); Production (tons) (,000) Yield (tons/ha) 3.2 Production and productivity trends of major food crops Maize production and Productivity (National) Figure 1: Production and Yield for Maize - National / / / / / / / /06 Area Production Yield Source: World Food Programme Tanzania (Unpublished data) Maize is grown in all regions of mainland Tanzania but regions in the Southern highlands (commonly referred to as the big four) dominate producing about 40% of the maize crop in Nevertheless, Shinyanga region has the largest planted area covering 11.6% of all the area under maize. About 30% of the maize is produced during the short rains. The area planted with maize remained almost constant between 1998 and 2002 then increasing slightly in 2002/03, probably to compensate for drought, which prevailed then. The area remained almost stable again at around three million hectares since then. Total production only tended slightly upward due to up and down fluctuations in yield. The average yield obtained in 2005/06 (1.3 tons/ha) was lower than that obtained in 2000/02 (1.7). Nonetheless, a gradual upward trend in yield is observed from 2002/03, which if maintained could reflect sustained agricultural intensification. The performance of maize for Iringa and Morogoro regions followed a similar trend but with a more pronounced yield improvement from 2002/03, which seems to be levelling off after 2004/2005. Figure 2: Maize production (Iringa & Morogoro ) / / /01 Iringa 2001/ / / / /06 Area Production Yield / / / /02 Morogoro 2002/ / / /06 Area Production Yield Source: World Food Programme Tanzania (Unpublished data) 19

21 Area (ha); Production (tons ) (, 000) Yield (tons/ha Area (ha); Production (tons) (,000) Yield (tons/ha) Area ( ha); Production (tons) (,000) Yield (tons/ha) Paddy production and productivity In Tanzania, the importance of rice as a source of food has been increasing over time, corresponding to increasing local demand, the function of rising incomes, especially in urban areas. In Tanzania, paddy is mainly grown in five regions; Morogoro (19.7%), Shinyanga (18.5%), Mwanza (13.6%), Tabora (10.2) and Mbeya (8.5%). While the national aggregate area under rice has almost doubled from 325,939 ha in 2001/02 to 633,770 ha in 2005/06, total production increased by only 29% largely due to declining (fluctuating) yield. The national average yield of paddy in 2005/06 (1.3 tons/ha) was about 34% lower than that of 2001/02 (1.964 tons/ha). Yield has not increased consistently for more than two years, the longest being between 1999/2000 and 2001/02. Prior to that yield is reported to have declined from 1.7 tons/ha in 1987 to about 1.0 ton/ha in 2002/03. The trend of production and yield for Morogoro mirrors that of the national data, reflecting the dominance of the region in the local rice supply chain. Figure 3: Paddy Production and productivity (National) / / / / / / / /06 Area Production Yield Source: World food Programme Tanzania (unpublished data) Figure 4: Paddy Production and Productivity (Morogoro & Iringa) Morogoro Iringa / / / / / / / /06 Area Production Yield / / / / / / / /06 Area Production Yield Source: World food Programme Tanzania (unpublished data) 20

22 Area ( ha); Production (tons) (,000) Yield (tons/ha) Area (ha); Produciton (tons) (,000) Yield (tons/ha) Area (,000 ha); Production (,000 tons) Sorghum Production and Productivity The area and production of sorghum changed very little between 1998/99 and 2005/06. Normally farmers tend to grow more sorghum during dry years and less during wet years, substituting sorghum for maize or even rice, especially in regions such as Shinyanga, Tabora and Mwanza regions. The yield of sorghum followed a fluctuating trend, within the range of tons per hectare. Similar yield levels were record in Iringa and Morogoro regions. In both regions, but especially in Iringa, the area under sorghum has been declining since 2003/04, reflecting substitution away from sorghum. Figure 5 Sorghum Production and productivity (National) National / / / / / / / /06 Area Production Yield Source: World food Programme Tanzania (unpublished data) Figure 6: Sorghum production and productivity (Iringa & Morogoro) Iringa Morogoro / / / / / / / /06 Area Production Yield 1998/ / / / / / / /06 Area Production Yield Source: World food Programme Tanzania (unpublished data) 21

23 Area (,000 ha); Production (,000 tons) Yield (tons/ha) Area (ha); Produciton (tons) (,000) Yield (tons/ha) Area (,000 ha); Produciton (,000 tons) Yield (tons/ha) Cassava Production and Productivity Nationally, the area under cassava has not changed much since 1998 increasing from 655,686 ha to 993,177 at about 6% increase annually. The yield showed a fluctuating trend within the range of 1.5 tons/ha in 1999/2000 and 2.7 tons/ha in 1998/99. Since 2002/03, the yield of cassava has shown a very gradual rising trend from 1.5 to 2.1 tons/ha, probably reflecting recovery from the crop s devastating attack from Cassava mosaic and yield gains from introduced improved varieties. For this reason the total production of cassava has also remained almost constant within the range of about million metric tons. In Morogoro region, the area, production and yield follow the national trend. The data for Iringa shows a gradual increase in area and production. The yield has however declined between 1998/99 and 2002/03, remaining stable at about 2 tons/ha after that. Figure 7: National Production and Yield of Cassava (National) National / / / / / / / /06 Area Production Yield Source: World food Programme Tanzania (unpublished data) Figure 8: Production and yield of cassava (Iringa & Morogoro) Iringa Mrogoro / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /06 Area Production Yield Area Production Yield Source: World food Programme Tanzania (unpublished data) 22

24 Table 3: Actual and potential yield for major food crops Year Crop Yield (Tons/ha) Maize Rice Sorghum Cassava 2004/ / Potential yield Source: URT ( ) In general, the data shows that the production and productivity of almost all major food crops has remained stable or declined. The yield obtained by farmers falls below the potential for all food crops as shown in Table 3. Hence, most of the output growth comes from expanding area under production. 3.3 Food crop intensification and food self-sufficiency. Despite the gradual production increase, and in some cases a decline in the main food staple crops, production has in general kept pace or is slightly ahead of the population growth rate (2.8%) compared to growth of main stable crops (6.4 % for maize and 7.3% for rice). Overall, Tanzania is self sufficient for maize during most years. Maize is the most important food crop, contributing about 31% of the food supply, according to crop estimates for 2005/06. Cassava comes second (19%) followed by potatoes (13%), sorghum and rice rank forth (7%) (URT, 2006). According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the capacity of food production in year t to meet local food demand and other food requirements (feed, seed) in year (t + 1) is measured by the food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR). There is a food deficit if SSR is below 100, and a surplus if SSR is greater than 120. For example, estimates for 2005/06 indicate that total food production of 10,769 tonnes would meet national food requirement by 110%, thus providing a surplus of 99,455 tons. The self-sufficiency ratio varies by region, depending on the distribution of rains for each year. Non cereals, especially cassava and potatoes (sweet and round) contribute significantly to the national food supply and hence ameliorate food shortage, except in very dry years when even these crops do not perform very well. Table 4 presents SSR figures for 2005/06, the supply of non-cereals reduced the number of food deficit regions from 14 to 5. Table 5 shows the self-sufficiency ratios from 2001 to 2006, indicating marginal SSR, thus susceptibility to food shortage during most years. Table 4: Number of Regions by SSR during 2005/06 Food Type Self Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) Surplus Self Sufficient Deficit Cereals Non-Cereals All food crops (total) Source: URT (2006) 23