THE EX-ACT TOOL TOWARDS A STANDARD METHOD TO APPRAISE CARBON CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF AGRICULTURE PROJECTS/ POLICIES:

Transcription

1 CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE TOWARDS A STANDARD METHOD TO APPRAISE CARBON BALANCE OF AGRICULTURE PROJECTS/ POLICIES: THE EX-ACT TOOL By FAO EX-ACT team (Bockel, Bernoux, Tinlot, Sutter, Gentien, Gorin) World Bank, ARD days Washington 23 March 2011

2 SUMMARY Background Why a new tool? How it is structured? Main output of the tool : carbon balance Applications of the EX-ACT tool FAO and climate smart agriculture

3 BACKGROUND Agriculture forestry land use Threatened by climate change Responsable for 1/3 of total GHG emissions Huge potential to cost-effectively mitigate 3 accounted GHG : CO 2, CH 4, N 2 0 Mitigation Increase sinks The main greenhouse gas emission sources/removals and processes in managed ecosystems (After IPCC Volume 4 Chapter. 1 Introduction HWP=Harvested wood products). Decrease sources

4 BACKGROUND 70 % of agriculture mitigation potential In developping countries Mitigation possible through changes in agricultural technologies and management practices CO 2 rate of deforestation and forest degradation, adoption of improved cropland management practices (reduced tillage, integrated nutrient and water management) CH 4, N 2 O improved animal production and management of livestock waste, more efficient management of irrigation water on rice paddies, improved nutrient management Sequestering carbon conservation farming practices, improved forest management practices, afforestation and reforestation, agro-forestry, improved grasslands management, restoration of degraded land 1 ha of avoided deforestation, from tropical rain forest to degraded lands 1 ha plantation, degraded land to tropical rain plantation 1 ha grasslands from severely degraded to improved grasslands 1 ha from degraded land to annual crops -42,7 t eq-co 2 /ha/year -18,8 t eq-co 2 /ha/year -1,7 à -3,8 t eq-co 2 /ha/year -1,2 t eq-co 2 /ha/year carbon appraisal 3+17 years

5 Climate smart agriculture Climate change Increased carbon in soils How low carbon options contribute to agriculture productivity and food security? Decrease GHG emissions Agriculture production and productivity Mitigation More biomass, more residue, more production Better land management Adaptation Reduce poverty and food security Value to farmers, communities, society More employment

6 Why having developed the tool? Lack of tools that would help project designers to integrate significant climate response activities in small holders agriculture development projects. Lack of operational tools Tools under UNFCCC/KP Tool = Flowchart + Equations + Default values

7 Why having developed the tool? Lack of tool screening the whole agricultural sector

8 Why having developed the tool? Need for an acceptable method which: measures C-balance impact within ex-ante appraisal, complements usual economic analysis, and fits within the time constraints of formulation process. Upgradable overtime Simple Cost effective Practical Information that : -scientists can quantify/use, -farmers/project developers can understand/use Up-scaling (Able to extrapolate to region, watershed and community basis)

9 WHY A NEW TOOL? Mitigation non integrated within project formulation Appraisal of agricultural project/programmes Carbon balance with a reference scenario Lack of climate impact decision-making tools Enriching usual economic analysis with a new indicator Legitimity of a new tool International application Regular up-dating Adapting to project formulation contraints Mitigation impacts of policies and value chains Easy to use and implement

10 What the EX-ACT TOOL does? Takes into account activities Deforestation, A-Re/forestation, forest degradation, Restoration of grasslands, livestock, cultivation of annual crops, cultivation of perennial crops, fertilization of crops, installation of building, installation of irrigation systems... that impact GHG fluxes (emissions and sinks) CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O from and to different pools above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, soil, litter and dead wood EMISSIONS STOCKS Carbon balance in t of eq-co 2 Positive result : There is more emissions Negative result: There is less emissions MITIGATION!

11 MAIN OUTPUT OF THE TOOL : CARBON BALANCE The carbon balance, for a specific project (or scenario of action) in comparison with a reference, should be considered as the net balance of all GHG emissions expressed in CO 2 equivalent (sources and sinks) with the atmosphere interface and the net change in C stocks (biomass, soil ). Future without project 100 ha flooded rice 100 ha degraded pastures 100 animals? more or less GHG released? Future with project 100 ha improved irrig. rice 100 ha restored pastures 100 High product. animals

12 HOW IT IS STRUCTURED? EXCEL File Project Description Project activities (identification du changement d utilisation des terres et des pratiques prévues) Aggregation and carbon balance I N P U T S Continent Climate Soil Duration Deforestation Afforestation and Reforestation Non forest land use change Annual crops Perennial crops Irrigated rice Grasslands Livestock Inputs Other investments Matrix (Synthesis of land use and land use changes) N E E D E D -Describe vegetation/animals/inputs concerned -Describe main management practices -Area concerned -Start situation -Future without project -Future with project Tier 1: IPCC coefficients Tier 2 : ad-hoc

13 Structure of the EX-ACT tool Logic behind : Variable considered (ha of land use, number of cattle heads, ) x 2 x 1 x 0 3 different dynamic of change (adoption) of practice Implementation phase Difference used to compute the final C balance in tons CO 2 equivalent Capitalization phase With project Benefits of the project Without project Time (years)

14 Structure of the EX-ACT tool 3 different dynamics of change (adoption) of practice Absolute Change (x 1 -x 0 ) Immediate Linear Exponential t 0 t 1 t 0 t 1 t 0 t 1 (years) Time Default option in Tier 1

15 MAIN KIND OF DATA/INFORMATION WE LOOK FOR Activities foreseen that may impact on mitigation (GHG reduction/releases) What is the current situation? What would happen in the future if the project is not implemented? What is expected in the future if the project is implemented? -Different areas of land uses and land use changes in ha -Management practices (residue burning, improved agronomic practice, nutrient management, organic management, tillage management) -Quantities of inputs used -For livestock, evolution of herd - Fuel consumption - Investments in infrastructures

16 WORLDWIDE EX-ACT APPLICATIONS Burkina Faso Mali Cameroon Moldavia India China Ethiopia Uganda Eritrea Sierra Leone Brazil Rwanda Tanzania Nigeria Congo Congo RDC Madagascar

17 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Rice in Madagascar One tool, several potentials Value chain

18 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Rice production in Madagascar Current annual emissions: 12.9 Million tons of CO 2 eq 4.8 kg of CO 2 eq per kg of paddy 7.2 kg of CO 2 eq per kg of rice Methane production of aquatic rice (67%) Deforestation effect (29%) Persistence of hilly S&B rice (tavy) Toward an Upgrading scenario for Contuniously flooding rice management -Laissez aller policy letting S&B increase by 3.1%/year -Switch of ha to intermitted flooding and non flooded preseason - improved organic amendment - Stop any increase of S&B rice - Net increase of fertilizers used The upgraded scenario will allow to fix 5.6 million tons of CO 2 eq/year between => 45% due to CH 4 (from continiously to intermitted flooding) => 54% linked with reduction of deforestation due to tavy

19 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Congo Brazzaville One tool, several potentials Forest management

20 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Policy support to strengthen capacities of local institutions in the REDD planning process Main caracteristics: 22,5 Millions ha of forest, lowest deforestation rate within Congo basin (0.08% annual brut) Duration of carbon appraisal: 15 years Millions of t eq-co 2 Deforestation Afforestation/ reforestation Land use change Perennial crops Carbon balance BAU Reference scenario +364,8-2,8-11, REDD 1 scenario +290, ,2-12,4 +259,3 Current deforest. trend + Addit. Deforest. from oil and mining Public effort to reforest (1404ha/yr) LUC from tropical forest to agricultural lands Only Current deforest trend Reforestation and afforestation (9000 ha/yr) 50% residue/biomass burning LUC from Set aside lands and degraded forest => monoculture Unit 15 years annual Carbon balance Million t of eq-co Value (1t=3 US$ ) million $ Value (1t=10 US$) million $

21 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Tanzania One tool, several potentials Food security and agriculture intensification

22 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Accelerated Food Security Project in the United Republic of Tanzania Objective: Increase agricultural production and productivity Targets: 2.5 millions farmers Means: improve rice and maize crops ( vouchers : improved seeds, inputs), stop residue burning, adoption of improved practises with better agronomic practises and better nutrient management Duration of carbon balance appraisal: 7+13 years conventionnel improved 1: agronomic+nutrient+no tillage+no burning Improved 2 : nutrient+no burning Improved 3: nutrient T Eq-CO 2 Maize Irrigation Irrigated rice Inputs Total Carbonbalance (CB) CB.ha -1-5,5 CB.an -1.ha -1-0,28 S C E N A R I O 1 T Eq-CO 2 Maize Irrigation Irrigated rice Inputs Total Carbon blance (CB) CB.ha -1-1,5 CB.an -1.ha -1-0,07 S C E N A R I O 2

23 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Madagascar One tool, several potentials Watershed

24 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Irrigation and watershed management programme in Madagascar Objective: establish the basis for viable irrigated agriculture and natural resources management in four rural growth poles Duration of carbon balance appraisal: years T Eq- CO 2 Carbon balance Reducing deforestation Forestation Agroforestry Annual crops Rice crops Restoring grasslands Inputs Land use change Other invest ments Total Carbon Balance.ha Carbon Balance.an -1.ha Carbon price constant price US$/ton Total public value million US$ Project NPV million US$ Internal IRR Without value % valued at % from 2 to % from 2 to % at low carbon price of US$ 3.5 Annual Equiv Carbon value per ha US$ 3.7 Carbon value per farmer US$ 14 Equiv Carbon financial rent per village US$ 1400 Equiv carbon financial rent per watershed US$ Potential employment generation in the area of Paid Environmental Services (PES) through regular carbon annual monetary inflows

25 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Uganda One tool, several potentials Sustainable Agriculture i

26 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Agriculture Technology and Agribusiness Advisory Services project (ATAAS) in Uganda Objective: increase agricultural productivity and the household incomes of participating smallholder farmers Duration of carbon appraisal: 5+15 years Millions of t eq-co2 Deforestation Afforestation/ reforestation Land use change Annual crops Perennial crops Final Carbon balance Scenario Scenario Initial project scenario Scenario 1 Land expansion (trhough deforestation, land use change on set aside and grass lands) Burning residue No land expansion No burning residue Improved practises = 50`% of mitigation potential of the project = 35 % of mitigation potential of the project No expansion Expansion of agroforestry and perennials = 12 % of mitigation potential of the project

27 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Agriculture Technology and Agribusiness Advisory Services project (ATAAS) in Uganda Objective: increase agricultural productivity and the household incomes of participating smallholder farmers Duration of carbon appraisal: 5+15 years Millions of t eq-co2 Deforestation Afforestation/ reforestation Land use change Annual crops Perennial crops Final Carbon balance Scenario Scenario More pragmatic scenario (agriculture expansion is not stopped but reduced) Scenario 2 WITH PROJECT SITUATION Annual crop expansion stopped only reduced Tree plantation without deforestation 50% on deforested lands Manure application yes no

28 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Democratic Republic of Congo One tool, several potentials On-going work for World Bank

29 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL Agriculture Rehabilitation and Recovery Support project (ARRS) in DRC Objective: to increase agricultural productivity and improve marketing Area covered: ha Durationof carbonappraisal: 5+15 years t eq-co2 Final Carbon balance Millions T CB per ha per year T Scenario Dominated by impact of avoided deforestation (85%) EX-ACT modules Deforestation Non Use Change Annual Crops t of eq-co2 over 20 years % of total GHG mitigated % of total GHG emitted total GHG mitigated Rice Livestock Other Investment total GHG emitted Carbon balance

30 APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL One tool, several potentials Forest management policies Food security and agriculture intensification Value chain appraisal Watershed

31 FAO s support to climate smart agriculture: key points Integrating climate change concerns into agriculture and food security policies and investment programmes Build synergies between sustainable agriculture intensification, SLM, mitigation and adaptation Mainstream appraisal of GHG impact - carbon balance in projects, programmes and policies Addressing adaptation and mitigation as an ongoing social learning processes sustained internalization of agriculture mitigation practices in farming systems

32 Towards a FAO strategy scaling up low carbon green agriculture? Approach and Standard mainstreaming Design and promotion of climate smart agriculture practices Promote multi functionality of sustainable green agriculture (multiobjective approach, externality/ co benefit promotion) Carbon balance to promote and use of carbon standards in planning and investment appraisal Scaling up Country- level implementation Greater consistency between agriculture, food security and climate change policy making Appraisal of country AFOLU Low carbon policy options country institutional, policy and technical support to develop agriculture carbon networks / platforms Global Donors and Partners Mobilization in scaling up Partnership with donors (World Bank, IFAD, AfDB, GTZ, AFD,EU...) in scaling up new carbon standards in agriculture investment planning Channeling fast track agriculture carbon funds

33 THANK YOU EX-ACT team: Bockel, Bernoux, Tinlot, Sutter, Gentien, Gorin ARD Days March 2011

34 To answer questions

35 24/06/2010 Return

36 24/06/2010 Return

37 24/06/2010 Return

38 Project Summary Area (Initial state in ha) Duration of the Name Forest/Plantation Project (years) Annual Implementat 10 Continent Africa Cropland Perennial 0 Capitalisatio 10 Rice Total 20 Climate Tropical Moist Grassland Other Lan Degraded Dominante Soil T HAC Soils Other 0 Total Area Return Components of the Project Deforestation Afforestation and Reforestation Other Land Use Change Agriculture Annual Crops Agroforestry/Perennial Crops Rice Grassland Other GHG Emissions Livestock Inputs Project Investment Balance (Project - Baseline) CO2 N2O CH4 Per phase of the project Mean per year All GHG in tco2eq Biomass Soil Implement. Capital. Total Implement. Capital this is a sink this is a sink this is a sink this is a sink this is a sink this is a sink this is a sink CO2 (other) this is a source this is a source Final Balance It is a sink Result per ha Deforestation Afforestation and Reforestation Other Land Use Change Annual Crops Agroforestry/Perennial Crops Rice Grassland Livestock Inputs Project Investment