WMO Perspectives on Food and Water Security

Transcription

1 World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Perspectives on Food and Water Security Robert Stefanski Chief Agricultural Meteorology Programme WMO

2 World Meteorological Organization WMO OMM United Nations agency for weather, climate, hydrology and water resources and related environmental issues. 189 Members from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) 10 major scientific & technical programmes (Secretariat) 8 Technical Commissions advise & guide activities of programmes (Experts) 6 Regional Associations involved in implementation 2

3 WMO Strategic Thrusts ( ) WMO OMM Improving service quality and service delivery; Advancing scientific research and application, as well as development and implementation of technology; Strengthening capacity-building; Building and enhancing partnerships and cooperation; Strengthening good governance 3

4 Five priority Areas WMO OMM Global Framework for Climate Services; Aviation meteorological services; Capacity-building for the developing and least developed countries; Implementation of the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS); Disaster risk reduction 4

5 WMO Technical Commissions WMO OMM Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM) Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) Commission for Climatology (CCl) Commission for Hydrology (CHy) Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO) Joint WMO-IOC Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) 5

6 Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) Terms of Reference Support applications of meteorology to management of agriculture, livestock, forestry, rangelands and fisheries sectors; Assist Member countries in developing/establishing their agrometeorological services particularly on: Operational use of knowledge concerning weather and climate for sustainable agricultural management through conservation and better use of natural resources; Use of weather and agrometeorological observations, forecasts and warnings for operational purposes; 6

7 Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) Terms of Reference (2) Use of climate observations and predictions; Adaptation to climate variability and change (developing countries); Combating unfavourable influences of weather and climate on agricultural subsectors, including weather-related pests and diseases; Protection of agricultural produce in storage/transit against damage due to direct and indirect influences of weather and climate; 7

8 Food and Water Security 8

9 Recent Increases in Food Prices 9

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12 Latest Global Food Outlook FAO s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2012 has been revised downward slightly 0.4 percent to a million tonnes. Severe droughts in the US and across large part of Europe & central Asia main cause of the reduced crop. World cereal utilization is forecast at million tonnes, down marginally from the previous season but 2 percent below the 10- year trend. The decline in maize consumption reflects an anticipated contraction in industrial usage of maize, largely because of an anticipated drop of 10 percent (13 million tonnes) in the crop usage for production of biofuels in the United States. World cereal production down 2.6 percent from the 2011 record but close to second largest in

13 Four Aspects of Food Security (FAO) Food Availability: Sufficient quantities of quality food supplied through domestic production, imports, food aid Food Access: Access by individuals to adequate resources for obtaining food for a nutritious diet Utilization: Through adequate diet, clean water, sanitation, health care for nutritional well-being. Importance of nonfood inputs in food security Stability: Population, household, individuals must have access to adequate food at all times. No risk of losing access to sudden shocks (economic or climatic crisis) Refers to both availability and access 13

14 Four Aspects of Food Security (FAO) Food Availability: Sufficient quantities of quality food supplied through domestic production, imports, food aid Food Access: Access by individuals to adequate resources for obtaining food for a nutritious diet Utilization: Through adequate diet, clean water, sanitation, health care for nutritional well-being. Importance of nonfood inputs in food security Stability: Population, household, individuals must have access to adequate food at all times. No risk of losing access to sudden shocks (economic or climatic crisis) Refers to both availability and access Use of Weather and Climate Information 14

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16 16 Royal Academy of Engineering (2010)

17 17 Royal Academy of Engineering (2010)

18 Sustainable Agriculture Sustainable agriculture integrates three main goals-- environmental health, economic profitability, and social and economic equity. Stewardship of both natural and human resources is of prime importance Systems perspective is essential to understanding sustainability Interdisciplinary efforts in research and education Making the transition to sustainable agriculture is a process. Source: UC Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Program (SAREP) 18

19 Source: International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) 19

20 Some Questions WMO OMM How will future climate change impact the sustainability of agriculture? Can current agricultural production systems be sustained into the future? What new sustainable systems can be developed? 20

21 Climate Variability WMO OMM These can be addressed by examining how current climate variability impacts the development of sustainable agriculture. Much more research still needs to done on how current climate variability impacts agriculture systems and their sustainability (ENSO, NAO). 21

22 Climate Variability WMO OMM Therefore, in order to provide sustainable management of agricultural systems (current, new) with respect to impacts of climate variability (droughts, floods, etc) and to adequately address likely future climate change impacts, decision-makers at all levels need to be aware of all aspects of the climate system. 22

23 Role of Weather and Climate Information to Agriculture Agrometeorology 23

24 Users of Agrometeorological Information Any agricultural decision-maker: International officials (i.e. Red Cross, WFP, UN) Government official Extension agent Farmers, ranchers, foresters, fishers Media General public 24

25 Forecast Lead Time Weather and Climate Prediction Framework WMO OMM Scenarios Climate Change. Centuries Forecast Uncertainty Outlook Prediction Guidance Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Climate Variability Weather Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Weeks Months Seasons Initial Conditions Years Decades Boundary Conditions Anthropogenic Forcing Adapted from: NOAA Applications 25

26 Tactical vs Strategic WMO OMM Tactical Applications - Weather Operational decisions from a few hours to a few days. Decisions based on crop state and current or forecast weather Cultivating, irrigating, spraying, and harvesting. Strategic Applications - Climate Issues and decisions on seasonal or yearly basis or planning specific crop or crop variety to plant designing and planning where or if greenhouses or animal shelters should be built aiding governments in setting agricultural pricing polices. 26

27 Key Questions in AgroMeteorology WMO OMM What are the weather / climate events that impact agricultural decision-making? How to relate weather / climate information to meaningful agricultural actions / practices? 27

28 Impact of Agrometeorogical services 28

29 Economic impact using 3-7 Day Weather WMO OMM Forecasts in India Crop Station name % change in cost of Prod. (per acre) % change in crop yield (per acre) % change in profit (per acre) Cotton Rice Hissar Coimbatore Ludhiana Kalyani Wheat Ludhiana Mustard Hissar

30 Millimeters WMO OMM Climate Services and Agrometeorology Need Historical Climate Data Quality controlled Monthly Precip

31 Climate Services and Agrometeorology Historical Climate Data Crop Information Basic Soil Information Simple Crop Model Crop Advice for Rural Farmers 31

32 Global Framework on Climate Services (GFCS) 32

33 Global Framework for Climate Services WMO OMM Goal: Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice. WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3 Geneva, Switzerland 31 August 4 September

34 Why a Framework for Climate Services? Present capabilities for providing climate services do not exploit all that we know about climate Present capabilities fall far short of meeting current and future needs and delivering their full and potential benefits, especially in developing countries A Framework for Climate Services will build on existing capacities and leverage these through coordination to address these shortcomings 34

35 # of Countries/Territories WMO OMM Why a Framework for Climate Services? Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services. Infrastructural Capacities of Countries as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential, Full and Advanced Climate Services Basic Essential Full Advanced Less than Basic Infrastrucal Capacity Category 35

36 Why a Framework for Climate Services? Climate services do not get the last mile to those who need them the most. 36

37 The vision of the GFCS 37

38 Priorities WMO OMM Agriculture Disaster risk reduction Water Health 38

39 Summary Determining food security is a complex process Weather and climate services can assist in food and water security analyses There are many other non-weather factors in determining food security. Every famine is not a drought. Need to integrate weather, climate, water, and agricultural information for agricultural users 39

40 World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Thank You WMO