Applications of Climate Forecasts for Agriculture

Transcription

1 Banjul, Gambia 9-13 December 2002 Applications of Climate Forecasts for Agriculture WMO/TD-No Applications of Climate Forecasts for Agriculture Proceedings of an Expert Group Meeting for Regional Association I (Africa) AGM-7/WCAC-1 WMO/TD-No. 1223

2 Application of Climate Forecasts for Agriculture Proceedings of an Expert Group Meeting for Regional Association I (Africa) (9-13 December 2002, Banjul, Gambia) AGM No. 7/ WCAC No. 1 WMO/TD-No World Meteorological Organization 7bis, Avenue de la Paix 1211 Geneva 2 Switzerland 2004

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword... 5 Opening of the meeting... 7 Seasonal Forecasting in Africa (J.P. Céron) Current Advances in the Science of Climate Prediction: Capacity for Agricultural Applications in Africa (L.A. Ogallo) Markov Chain Modelling and ENSO Influences on the Rainfall Seasons of Ethiopia (E. Bekele)...25 Deterministic and Probabilistic Prediction Approaches in Seasonal to Inter-Annual Climate Forecasting (C. Oludhe) Elaboration of a Framework of Climatological Information and Prediction Services (C. Toure) The Application of Climate Forecasts and Agrometeorological Information for Agriculture, Food Security, Forestry, Livestock and Fisheries (G. Maracchi, F. Neneguzzo, M. Paganini) The Application of Informations and agrometeorological Opinions for Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry: Case Study in Mali (D.A. Maiga) The Establishment of Needs for Climate Forecasts and other Agromet Information for Agriculture by Local, National and Regional Decision-Makers and Users Communities (C.J. Stigter) Environmental Watch in the CSE: Utilization of the Images of Estimate of the Rains in the Folllow-up of the Agricultural Countryside (P.B. Soumaré et M. Martini) Practical Approaches to Meet User Requirements for Climate Forecasts and Agrometeorological Advisories for Rangelands and Wild Fires (E. Mersha) Improvement of the Durable Use of Climatic Resources by Agriculture in Guinea (Y. Bangoura) Effective Methods of Communicating Climate Forecasts and Agrometeorological Advisories to Farmers and other End-Users (P. Lugunda) Preparation and Transmission of Weather Information by the Press: The Experience of Mali (Traore) The Means of Achieving Better Recognition of the Value and Benefits of Climate Forecasts and Agrometeorological Information Disseminated to Users (B. Chipindu)

4 Mechanisms to Promote Used Satisfaction to Achieve Recognition of the Value of the Meteorological Services (S. Walker) Improving User Perception of the Value of Agrometeorological Services Provided (O. Baddour) Advantages of the Climatic Forecasts and the Opinions Agroclimatic: Experience of Senegal (M. Ndiaye) The Impact of Accurate and Timely Issue of Climate Forecast and Agrometeorological Warnings on Policy and Decision-Making (P. Gibba) Conclusions and Recommendations Closing Session Appendix

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7 Opening Remarks by Dr Buruhani Nyenzi Chief, World Climate Applications and CLIPS Division of WMO On behalf of the Secretary-General of WMO, I welcome you all to this Expert Group Meeting. The Agricultural Meteorological Programme and the Climate Application and CLIPS Division of WMO are organizing this RA I Expert Group Meeting jointly. This meeting is timely as many countries in Africa, including The Gambia, are currently engaged in combating the impacts of climate variability, droughts and famine that pose many challenges to the agricultural sector, which is one of the largest contributors to GDP in the Region. In addressing the challenges facing sustainable agricultural development, WMO has continued to give priority to the timely and effective implementation of some of the activities of its World Climate Programme, Agricultural Meteorology Programme, and Hydrology and Water Resources Programme. It is within this context that WMO has decided to organize this meeting, whose main purpose is to examine the current scientific advances in climate forecast; identify the available forecasting tools including seasonal forecasts and climate prediction as well as crop models that are suitable for Africa, and recommend systematic and practical ways of using them for operational applications in agriculture in the Region with emphasis on accuracy, timeliness and user needs. The expected final output of this meeting are the appropriate recommendations on how suitable forecasting tools that are readily available could be effectively applied for improvement of agricultural production in Africa, taking into account the sub-region specificities. It has indeed been demonstrated that effective, accurate and timely prediction and well-established early warning mechanisms can enable Governments and stakeholders to put into motion appropriate actions for mitigating against the adverse impacts brought by these climate-related extreme events. WMO is working hard to see how it can help the National Meteorological Services within the Region in improving the provision of early warning for climate-related events. This is being achieved through the provision of support to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) through training experts who can produce and deliver timely and accurate information. In order to enhance this effort, we urged Governments in the Region to provide adequate support to NMHSs, as well as other related national and regional institutions and programmes as to ensure that these institutions and programmes continue to utilize new developments and skills in climate prediction in support of sustainable development. Finally, I would like to assure you, the participants, that for its part, WMO will continue to support the activities of the NMHSs, and those of ACMAD and the DMCs in their effort to further contribute effectively to a sustainable national and regional agricultural development. WMO will also continue to work with its partners in the international community as well as Governments in order to ensure the sustainability of these institutions. 7

8 Opening Statement by Honourable Susan Waffa-Ogoo Secretary of State for Fisheries, Natural Resources and the Environment On behalf of the His Excellency the President, Alhagie Dr Yahya A.J.J. Jammeh, the Government and people of The Gambia, and on my own behalf, I wish to extend a warm welcome to you Dr Buruhani Nyenzi and all our guests. I also extend our sincere appreciation to Prof. Obasi the Secretary-General of WMO for allowing The Gambia to host this important meeting. At the beginning of this year s rainy season, the rains failed and crop productivity was reduced. At the end of the season, unseasonal rains destroyed the small amount of crops that were harvested. Productivity was again reduced. That tells you the plight of the Gambian farmers and the economy, which are completely dependent on rain fed agriculture. The forecasters in the Gambia informed me that they are qualified to provide weather forecasts up to 48 hours lead-time but not seasonal weather forecasts. A seasonal weather forecast model is presently being experimented but this provides forecasts of average seasonal rainfall quantities and anomalies thereof. Through the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Programme, the Government of the United Kingdom and the Meteorological Office provided the Gambian Meteorological Services with a Media Weather Presentation System. A technician from the UK Meteorological Office is currently in The Gambia to upgrade the Media System with state-of-the-art equipment and software. The Government of the Gambia also constructed a Media Weather Studio. We in The Gambia and the Sahel Region need accurate predictions of beginning and end of the rainy season; start, duration and end of dry spells, and magnitude and duration of floods. The technical and technological capacities are lacking. We in The Gambia look forward to your state-of-the-art presentations and discussion papers that, we hope, will contribute to addressing and alleviating our climate related agricultural problems and those of the African Region in general. We also look forward to future collaboration and cooperation with your parent institutions in advancing climate forecasting in the Gambia and the African Region as a whole. I hope the brainstorming sessions of the Meeting will take into consideration all the needs of the Region and come up with tangible and practical recommendations for future actions by the scientific community, WMO and Member States of the African Region. I now declare the meeting open and I thank you for your attention. 8