Proactive Identification of Emerging Risks

Transcription

1 Proactive Identification of Emerging Risks Parma, Prof. Dr. Ralf Reintjes Head Emerging Risks Unit

2 Overview Emerging Risks Identification Results from the ESCO Activities and Plans of the Emerging Risks Unit 2

3 Mandate of the Emerging Risks Unit (Regulation EC 178/2002, art 34) Monitoring Collecting and collating Analyse and filter REGULATION (EC) No 178/2002 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 28 January 2002 Laying down the general principles and requirements of food law, establishing the European Food Safety Authority and laying down procedures in matters of food safety Article 34 Identification of emerging risks 1. The Authority shall establish monitoring procedures for systematic searching for, collecting, collating and analysing information and data with a view to the identification of emerging risks in the fields within its mission. 2. Where the Authority has information leading it to suspect an emerging serious risk, it shall request additional information from the Member States, the Community agencies, and the Commision. 4. The Authority shall forward the evaluation and information collected on emerging risks to the European Parliament, the Commission and the Member States. sharing 3

4 Classical research TIME NOW 4

5 Early warning TIME NOW 5

6 Identification / Forecasting of Emerging Risks TIME NOW 6

7 Milestones Timeline Search engines 2006 EMRISK Project Influential sector Indicator Indicative question Information sources SC Opinion on Emerging Risks Scientific experts Signal Proactive Alert Action 2007 EFSA Adopts Emerging Risk Definition ESCO Working Group on Emerging Risks 2008 Emerging Risks Unit 7

8 ESCO WG on Emerging Risks (=panel members + experts nominated by MS) EFSA Executive Director ESCO Steering Group (chair D. Collins) WG 1 (chair H. Noteborn) Data collection and processing Core indicators WG 2 (chair N. Tomlinson) Existing networks To propose methodology and procedures for the establishment of a network to exchange key sources of information 8

9 Mandate of the ESCO WG (Adopted by EFSA Scientific Committee, 2007) 1. Define and list priority indicators 2. Develop procedures and best practices for data collection and analysis 3. Identify key sources of information 4. Propose methodology and procedures to establish a network to exchange information 5. Review recently completed and ongoing projects and recommend research activities 9

10 EMRISK approach scheme and the ESCO WG 2 (chair N. Tomlinson) Search engines Influential sector Indicator Indicative question Information sources WG 1 (chair H. Noteborn) Scientific experts Signal Proactive Alert Action 10

11 Definitions The ESCO WG operates under the definitions of emerging risk, indicator, and signal adopted by EFSA 11

12 EFSA Definition of Emerging Risk (EFSA Scientific Committee, 2007) New Hazard New Known Hazard Exposure Emerging Risk An emerging risk to human, animal and/or plant health is understood as a risk resulting from a newly identified hazard to which a significant exposure may occur or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/or susceptibility to a known hazard Assessment of Emerging Risks Based on Early detection of facts related to that risk derived either from research, monitoring programs or episodic observations 12

13 EFSA Definitions of Indicator and Signal (EFSA Scientific Committee, 2007) Emerging Risk Identification: Evidence supporting the identification of an emerging risk should be preferably in the form of an indicator and a signal Indicator Outbreak Signal Indicator and signal: After Ooms, 2006 Time or space An indicator is a component of risk assessment, directly or indirectly related to the food chain, that can be measured/calculated qualitatively and/or quantitatively. An ideal indicator should be reliable, sensitive, quantifiable and should provide information on the nature of the hazard and the source of risk A signal is a trend of the indicator over time or space 13

14 Management of the WG 23 experts from 16 countries (including USA) Since meetings organized (Parma and Bruxelles) 2 plenaries 6 subgroup 1 steering committee Major achievements in the preliminary report (EFSA/EMRISK/047) 14

15 Progress report WG 1 Eleven Indicators in the areas of chemical, microbiological and nutritional hazards Examples of signals and sources of information Limitations of the indicators, including the problem of relevant complex influential sectors not covered by these indicators Overall preliminary approach and evaluation criteria for emerging risks assessment 15

16 Indicators (see report table 1) Chemical New research data indicating toxic properties of substances in food (Signal: ex. New toxicological data) Unexpected detection of a potential toxic agent in food (Signals: ex. analytical results, clusters of non infectious diseases) Unexpected evidence of increased exposure of specified populations to particular hazardous chemical/radioactive (Signals: ex. Analytical results, food and feed consumption patterns, biomarkers) 16

17 Indicators (cont) Biological Emergence of new zoonotic and other foodborne pathogens (Signals: ex. Outbreak surveillance, clinical diagnostic data, prescriptions) Emergence of increased resistance to anti-microbials and plant protection products (Signals: ex. Surveillance, Lab. Data) Increased virulence of known pathogens (Signals: ex. Surveillance, Lab. Data) Emergence of new or exotic biological agent (Signals: ex. Surveillance, Outbreaks pathogenic to plants) 17

18 Indicators (cont) Susceptibility Increased exposure of specified (sub)population to particular hazardous chemical/biological/radioactive contaminants Increased susceptibility of (sub)populations to known contaminants and other hazardous substances Nutritional Dietary changes or unbalances caused by modification of food consumption habits 18

19 Discussed approach to data collection and processing (see Figure 1) 19

20 Progress report WG 2 Set objectives and strategies for network collaboration between Emerging Risks Unit and several key partners for a sustainable platform to exchange information (incl. European Commission, Agencies, and other international organizations) Questionnaire addressed to Member States with the aim to collect information on existing procedures at national level to identify emerging risks Web monitoring systems to implement an observatory system of the early identification of emerging issues is under evaluation by subgroup-2 The WG has started to populate a database with research articles and past and ongoing initiatives documents 20

21 Next steps Recommendations and roadmap for the Emerging Risks unit Questionnaire to be submitted to MS Finalize the conceptual model for data collection and exchange Scientific Colloquium in

22 Emerging risks identification system ERIS Reports rasff, ms, ecdc.. Data analysis of indicators (risk assessment) Media EMM, GPHN.. Stakeholders (industry.) Early Warning System Committee Experts Research pubmed, embase, conferences, DG research Food import and data production (exposure assessment) = filter Proactive alert 22

23 Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) 23

24 Time series analysis 24

25 Tools: Media monitoring: EMM by JRC EMM is a system for media news aggregation and analysis The information is: Gathered Filtered and classified Presented and visualized Analyzed for trend detection Alerts Emerging Risk Unit and JRC: 1) Refining the search strategy and keywords 2) Extending the searchable database 3) Pilot phase of an alert system with a newsletter 4) Validation of the system 25

26 Commission Working Group on Emerging Risks Indicators, sources, networking, methodology Establish a Europe-wide global network system for exchanging information to screen new hazards. Developing a cooperative approach (a common model) to address emerging risks in different sectors respecting the independence and autonomy of each organization. 26

27 Future outputs RASFF mapping tool Import surveillance Alert IT tool Up-to-date information 27

28 Not everthing that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted! Albert Einstein 28