Cognitive Computing: The Art of the Possible, Innovation and Inspiration through IBM Watson

Transcription

1 Cognitive Computing: The Art of the Possible, Innovation and Inspiration through IBM Watson Ali Arsanjani, PhD IBM Distinguished Engineer, Chief Technology Officer, IBM

2 Please Note IBM s statements regarding its plans, directions, and intent are subject to change or withdrawal without notice at IBM s sole discretion. Information regarding potential future products is intended to outline our general product direction and it should not be relied on in making a purchasing decision. The information mentioned regarding potential future products is not a commitment, promise, or legal obligation to deliver any material, code or functionality. Information about potential future products may not be incorporated into any contract. The development, release, and timing of any future features or functionality described for our products remains at our sole discretion. Performance is based on measurements and projections using standard IBM benchmarks in a controlled environment. The actual throughput or performance that any user will experience will vary depending upon many factors, including considerations such as the amount of multiprogramming in the user s job stream, the I/O configuration, the storage configuration, and the workload processed. Therefore, no assurance can be given that an individual user will achieve results similar to those stated here IBM Corporation 2

3 Topics Preface Cognitive Computing IBM Watson Adoption Patterns Engagement Watson Platform Exploration Discovery Decision Few Demos 2015 IBM Corporation 3

4 Let s get started Preface 2015 IBM Corporation 4

5 2015 IBM Corporation 5

6 Cognitive is the new competitive advantage IBM Corporation 6

7 Chapter 1 Cognitive Computing? 2015 IBM Corporation 7

8 Cognitive Systems Not Yet! 2015 IBM Corporation 8

9 Cognitive systems amplify human cognition IBM Corporation 9

10 Cognitive systems don t do your thinking for you. They augment & aid your research so that you have more time to innovate IBM Corporation 10

11 To do that, cognitive systems attempt to reason about a problem space in a way that is similar to human thinking so that the conclusions are intuitively obvious, transparent, and immediately useful IBM Corporation 11

12 Provides answers not links and webpages Answers with evidence not guesses Not restricted to a predefined questionanswer set Learns from every interaction 2015 IBM Corporation 12

13 In 20 years, cognitive systems will be to computing what transaction processing is today Amplify human creativity Inspiring us to new alternatives to decision options Bringing the breadth of all human knowledge to the tip of our tongue Learn their behavior through formal and informal training processes Interact with humans on our terms in the language of humans Demonstrate their expertise through trust and depth of character Evolve strategies of success adapting to ever changing knowledge and understanding 2015 IBM Corporation 13

14 What is Cognitive Computing? Cognitive systems are able to learn their behavior through education That support forms of expression that are more natural for human interaction Whose primary value is their expertise; and That continue to evolve as they experience new information, new scenarios, and new responses and does so at enormous scale IBM Corporation 14

15 Principles of Cognitive Computing Cognitive Systems Applying human-like characteristics to conveying and manipulating ideas, that when combined with the inherent strengths of digital computing can help users to address problems with higher accuracy, more resilience, and on a massive scale over very large bodies of information. Watson is a Cognitive System Teases apart the human language to identify inferences between text passages Can demonstrate human-like accuracy Performs at speeds far faster, and at a scale far bigger, then a human IBM Corporation 15

16 How does it work? Cognitive systems interpret the natural world by listening to the signals emitted in that world, and evaluating patterns in strong and weak signals that convey meaning Algorithmic annotators detect and score the strength of the features (signals) relevant to the domain Machine Learning algorithms then use the resulting vector of feature scores to learn which patterns represent meaning These Machine Learning algorithms are taught to recognize meaningful patterns through training data representing ground-truth in the domain of natural experience Cognitive systems are able to boost their comprehension through metaphorical comparison to models of the real world that are constructed from shared contextual history Confidence is reinforced through redundancy and supporting evidence Different combinations of features and Machine Learning represent different reasoning strategies that can be useful for different situations 2015 IBM Corporation 16

17 Volume in Exabytes A Key driver for Cognitive Computing we want to interpret overwhelmingly large amounts of increasing data 9000 Sensors & Devices Percentage of uncertain data Social Media VoIP Percent of uncertain data Enterprise Data International Business Machines Corporation 2015 IBM Corporation 17

18 Number of times a similar question is asked Watson began from DeepQA invoking the need for multiple reasoning strategies for answering questions WEA What are your visiting hours? FAQ QA Pipeline Can you walk me through installing a new app on my phone? Directed QA Pipeline WEA What are the requirements for car insurance in Kentucky? Some questions are asked frequently We call this the long tail of the question space Different types of questions demand different types of answers Note: Jeopardy questions only ever demanded Factoid answer types WEA engagements most often demand FAQ and Passage answers Each pipeline is responsible for reasoning about how to yield the type of answers it is responsible for There is a point of diminishing returns for covering absolutely every question type some questions will never be covered and will be redirected Passage QA Pipeline I want to submit a claim Action QA Pipeline AlchemyAPI Knowledge QA Pipeline Yes/No QA Pipeline Jeopardy! WDA Factoid QA Pipeline What is the highest priced phone offered by Samsung? Query QA Pipeline Prediction QA Pipeline What is the capital of Texas? Do I need a visa to enter Brazil? Who is known as the father of modern psychology? What level of customer churn will we see next quarter? The long tail of questions Different questions that might be asked (including similar variations) 2015 IBM Corporation 18

19 Cognitive systems are creating a new partnership between humans and technology. Humans excel at: COMMON SENSE MORALS IMAGINATION COMPASSION ABSTRACTION DILEMMAS DREAMING GENERALIZATION Cognitive Systems excel at: LOCATING KNOWLEDGE PATTERN IDENTIFICATION NATURAL LANGUAGE MACHINE LEARNING ELIMINATE BIAS ENDLESS CAPACITY 19

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21 Cognitive systems rely on collections of data and information: Data, information, and expertise create the foundation. Examples include: Analyst reports tweets Wire tap transcripts Battlefield docs s Texts Forensic reports Newspapers Blogs Wiki Court rulings International crime database Stolen vehicle data Missing persons data 21

22 There are three capabilities that differentiate cognitive systems from traditional programmed computing systems. Understanding Cognitive systems understand like humans do, whether that s through natural language or the written word; vocal or visual. Reasoning They reason. They can understand information but also the underlying ideas and concepts. This reasoning ability can become more advanced over time. It s the difference between the reasoning strategies we used as children to solve mathematical problems, and then the strategies we developed when we got into advanced math like geometry, algebra and calculus. Learning They never stop learning. As a technology, this means the system actually gets more valuable with time. They develop expertise. Think about what it means to be an expert- - it s not about executing a mathematical model. We don t consider our doctors to be experts in their fields because they answer every question correctly. We expect them to be able to reason and be transparent about their reasoning, and expose the rationale for why they came to a conclusion. 22

23 What will an inquisitive mind want to know from text? Entities /Concepts & Relationships Expand Concepts Explore information based on Concept Associations Resonance of the text Rarely has there been a better time for start-ups to raise money from Silicon Valley venture capitalists. But this golden age may not last long. At least that is what Bill Gurley says. Mr. Gurley is a prominent investor who has spent a career betting on who the winners and losers will be in the future of technology. Ciao! Ask questions & interact in natural language Sentiment & Sentiment Targets Deeper understanding on author s personality Language identification 2015 IBM Corporation 23

24 I want to Classify Text Extract Entities & Relationships Search & Rank Results Understand Utterances & Act Expand 2015 IBM Corporation 24

25 To pass the Turing Test and qualify as artificially intelligent, a machine should be able to do for example: natural language processing (i.e. communicate with no trouble on a given language); automated reasoning (using stored information to answer questions and draw new conclusions) and machine learning (the ability to adapt to new circumstances and detect patterns) IBM Corporation 25

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28 So what are the Characteristics of a Cognitive System? Engage in a Dialog Ingest Variety of (Big) Data Respond with Degree of Confidence Learn with Every Interaction Understand personality at a Deeper level Generate & Evaluate Hypothesis Understand Natural Language Provide Supporting Evidence Offer Contextual Guidance & Insights Support for Decision Making Relate between Terms & Concepts Scale in Proportion 2015 IBM Corporation 28

29 Chapter 2 IBM Watson 2015 IBM Corporation 29

30 Watson is creating a new partnership between people and computers that enhances, scales and accelerates human expertise IBM Corporation 30

31 What is IBM Watson? Engagement Discovery Decision Exploration Platform Cognitive Technology Support for several usage patterns Read & Understand Natural Language Learns over time Generate multiple hypothesis with Evidence Natural extension of what humans can do at their best 2015 IBM Corporation 31

32 Bringing IBM Watson to market Watson Industry Apps Health Solutions IBM Watson for Oncology IBM Watson for Genomics IBM Watson for Clinical Trial Matching IBM Watson for Clinical Trial Matching Express IBM Watson Health Cloud for Life Sciences Compliance X Industry Solutions Watson Explorer Content Miner Watson Curator Watson Analytics Watson Knowledge Studio Frameworks IBM Watson Engagement Advisor IBM Watson Explorer IBM Watson Discovery Advisor IBM Watson Care Manager IBM Watson Decision Advisor IBM Watson Policy Advisor Platform AlchemyLanguage Concept Expansion Concept Insights Dialog Language Translation Natural Language Classifier Personality Insights Retrieve and Rank Tone Analyzer AlchemyVision Visual Insights Visual Recognition AlchemyData News Tradeoff Analytics Relationship Extraction Document Conversion Speech to Text Text to Speech 2015 IBM Corporation 32

33 Chapter 3 Adoption Patterns 2015 IBM Corporation 33

34 IBM Watson enables various adoption patterns Transform customer experiences Search, consolidate & analyze enterprise data Accelerate Research into Insight Evaluate possible options & choose the best one Enrich apps with Cognitive, NLP, Vision & Machine Learning capabilities ENGAGE EXPLORE DISCOVER DECIDE PLATFORM Engage with customers in a NL conversation Ask questions for greater insight Answer with context Guide consumers to an outcome Merge of enterprise search with content and text analytics 360-degree Information apps at the point of impact Use Platform services to further enhance cognitive processing When finding the question is as important as finding the answer Find rationale for given responses Scaling to millions of documents Ingest and analyze domain sources, info models Evidence-based decisions with greater confidence Multiple reasoning strategies to enable decision support Build your application using callable Watson Service APIs Can be combined with the 100s of other available services on Bluemix 2015 IBM Corporation 34

35 IBM Watson enables various adoption patterns Transform customer experiences Search, consolidate & analyze enterprise data Accelerate Research into Insight Evaluate possible options & choose the best one Enrich apps with Cognitive, NLP, Vision & Machine Learning capabilities Watson Engagement Advisor Watson Explorer Watson Discovery Advisor Oncology, Clinical Trials Matching, Wealth Advisor Watson API s on Bluemix ENGAGE EXPLORE DISCOVER DECIDE PLATFORM Engage with customers in a NL conversation Ask questions for greater insight Answer with context Guide consumers to an outcome Merge of enterprise search with content and text analytics 360-degree Information apps at the point of impact Use Platform services to further enhance cognitive processing When finding the question is as important as finding the answer Find rationale for given responses Scaling to millions of documents Ingest and analyze domain sources, info models Evidence-based decisions with greater confidence Multiple reasoning strategies to enable decision support Build your application using callable Watson Service APIs Can be combined with the 100s of other available services on Bluemix 2015 IBM Corporation 35

36 Watson Adoption Patterns Pattern Description Client success stories Engagement Transform customer experiences Leading insurance company in US introduced Watson to answer questions from members Discovery Accelerate Research into Insight Leading medical research institution, Baylor, publishes breakthrough in protein targeting Decision Evaluate possible options and choose the best one Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center partnered with IBM to build an Oncology solution Cognitive Exploration Search, consolidate and analyze enterprise data 700+ clients using the product across industries Cognitive Services Enrich new or existing applications with NLP, Vision and Machine Learning Capabilities developers and 200+ partners are building on Watson today 2015 IBM Corporation 36

37 Engagement 2015 IBM Corporation 37

38 How Watson works: DeepQA Architecture Multiple interpretations Hundreds of answer sources Primary search Candidate answer generation Tens of thousands of evidence sources and scores Answer scoring Evidence retrieval Deep evidence scoring Learned models Combine and weigh evidenc?! Questio n Inquiry analysis Decomposition Hypothesis generation Hypothesis and Synthesis evidence scoring Final confidence merging & ranking Answer 2015 IBM Corporation 38

39 How Watson works: DeepQA Architecture Multiple interpretations Hundreds of answer sources Primary search Candidate answer generation Natural language processing Tens of thousands of evidence sources and scores Answer scoring Evidence retrieval Deep evidence scoring Learned models Combine and weigh evidenc Information retrieval Knowledge representation and reasoning Deep analytics Machine learning?! Questio n Parallel and distributed computing Inquiry analysis Decomposition Hypothesis generation Hypothesis and Synthesis evidence scoring Final confidence merging & ranking 2015 IBM Corporation 39 Answer

40 Watson understands natural language Uses natural language processing and DeepQA technology to break down & understand a customer s question There may be 100 ways to phrase the same question Watson is able to learn them IBM Corporation 40

41 Watson understands context Questions may only make sense if you understand context E.g. Previous question Information about the consumer Surrounding environment 2015 IBM Corporation 41

42 Watson engages consumers in a conversation Watson understands that dialog is iterative Show a personality representative of the brand Clarification questions to carry a conversation and get user s intent Guide consumers to an outcome 2015 IBM Corporation 42

43 Watson can take action Watson is able to integrate business processes into customer conversations Inject the right offers or promotion based on context Submit an application Retrieve information about a consumer 2015 IBM Corporation 43

44 Chapter 4 Watson Platform 2015 IBM Corporation 44

45 Watson Platform built on Bluemix Web-based APIs Message, Sentiment, and Personality insights The Waston that competed on Jeopardy! in 2011 comprised what is now a single API Q&A built on five underlying technologies. Natural Language Processing Questions & Answers Machine Learning Question Analysis Feature Engineering Ontology Analysis Languag e Detection Visual Recognition Text to Speech Tradeoff Analytics Personality Insights Concept Expansion Natural Languag e Classifier Author Extraction Relationship Extraction Concept Insights Retrieve & Rank Watson News Since then, Watson has grown to a family of 28 APIs. Keyword Extraction Dialog Language Translation Tone Analyzer Feed Detection Concept Tagging Taxonomy Text Extraction Image Link Extraction Sentimen t Analysis Message Resonance Image Tagging By the end of 2016, there will be nearly 50 Watson APIs with more added every year. Answer Generation Usage Insights Fusion Q&A Video Augmentation Decision Optimization Knowledge Graph Risk Stratification Policy Identification Emotion Analysis Decision Support Criteria Classification Knowledge Canvas Easy Adaptatio n Knowledge Studio Service Statistical Dialog Q&A Qualification Speech to Text Entity Extraction Face Detectio n Factoid Pipeline Case Evaluation WATSON EXPLORER WATSON DEVELOPER CLOUD WATSON ENGAGEMENT WATSON DISCOVERY WATSON ECOSYSTEM 2015 IBM Corporation 45

46 Discovery 2015 IBM Corporation 46

47 Watson for healthcare and life sciences spans all aspects of knowledge and data From population averages To insights for individual patient! Scientific papers Books Guidelines Published Knowledge Observational Data Longitudinal records Claims, Rx, Labs Patient reported data Knowledge-Driven Method Data-Driven Method Closing the translational knowledge gap Personalized Insights from institutional data 2015 IBM Corporation 47

48 Meaningful insights are only gained when data reveals a universe of relationships Genes FDA Orange Book/Moieties Plant Biology Diseases Chemical Compounds Drugs Cells Patents Animal Models Patient s 2015 IBM Corporation 48

49 Baylor / IBM Study on p53 WW Research IBM Watson 1 5 New Cancer Drug targeting p53 per year Leveraging Watson Cognitive Capabilities to Accelerate the Discovery of New Drugs to Fight Cancer Potential New Cancer Drugs in 30 days 2015 IBM Corporation 49

50 Showing Researchers Where to Look Most Likely Targets Results were Too Good to be True? Re-ran experiment with pre 2003 information. Only 10 known kinases triggered p53 at that time Of the 9 found in the next decade Watson accurately predicted IBM Corporation 50

51 Decision 2015 IBM Corporation 51

52 IBM Watson for Oncology Trained by Memorial Sloan Kettering Business challenge: Clinicians have no easy way to search across eligibility criteria of relevant clinical trials for their patient; affecting research advancement and patient care Less than 10% of clinical studies are completed on time 30% of sites for clinical trials fail in enrolling even a single patient Watson solution: Use patient data to instantly check eligibility across all relevant clinical trials, which can improve research and treatment outcomes Two Use Cases Point of care: Cognitive Physician assistant to assess patient eligibility against all available trials For Pharma: Identify potentially productive sites (potentially eligible patients) help recruit patients for a specific trial Initial focus is oncology, Watson is trained in breast, lung and colorectal cancer, with other tumor types to follow 2015 IBM Corporation 52

53 IBM Watson for Clinical Trial Matching Business challenge: Ability to assess quickly the best treatments for an individual patient based on latest evidence and clinical guidelines Watson solution: A tool to assist physicians make personalized treatment decisions Analyzes patient data against thousands of historical cases and trained through thousands of Memorial Sloan Kettering MD and analyst hours Suggestions to help inform oncologists decisions based on over 290 medical journals, over 200 textbooks, and 12M pages of text Evolves with the fast-changing field Currently supports first line treatment (Breast, Lung, Colorectal cancers) 2015 IBM Corporation 53

54 Exploration 2015 IBM Corporation 54

55 Watson Explorer addresses information challenges across your enterprise Challenges Information access 100s of TB of data but employees struggle to get the information they need in context Watson Explorer Delivers Explore Information at the point of impact, in 360-degree information applications Watson Explorer V10 Insights from unstructured data 80% of data is unstructured but only a small percentage leveraged for business insights Analyze Content analytics to aggregate and analyze vast amounts of unstructured data for business insights Scaling expertise Pressure to increase performance and innovation while doing more with less Interpret Cognitive capabilities from Watson Developer Cloud to enhance, scale and accelerate human expertise Cognitive Exploration Information, analytic insights and cognitive services to improve business outcomes 2015 IBM Corporation 55

56 Watson Explorer Allow for exploration of easily consumable data across multiple systems Discovery and navigation across disparate sources for timely data findability Merge of enterprise search with content and text analytics Sentiment Analytics Social Search/Analytics Social media crawler Domain-adaptive search Compound Document support Explore: Securely connects and explores data, regardless of format or location Analyze: Mines unstructured content to reveal trends, patterns and insights Interpret: Delivers cognitive capabilities via the Watson Developer Cloud Enables integration of Watson Developer Cloud services to further enhance the cognitive processing of unstructured information A single point of access for information and services - Onpremise enterprise systems, Public and private cloud, Public and private Internet sources 2015 IBM Corporation 56

57 Watson Explorer Use Cases Customer Insight Crime Analytics Healthcare Insurance Finance Customer experience Customer satisfaction and survey analysis Product and service quality Churn prediction Marketing campaign development and execution New revenue opportunities Product enhancements Community policing Investigation analytics Incident management Antigang initiatives Antiterrorism initiatives Cyber crime investigation Diagnostic assistance Clinical treatment Critical care intervention Research for improved disease management Fraud detection and prevention Voice of the patient Claims management Prevention of readmissions Patient discharge and follow-up care Risk assessment Fraud detection Policy and underwriting analysis Claims analysis, payment validation and loss review Reserve trending and optimization Anti money laundering Internet banking fraud Operational efficiency Risk management and compliance 2015 IBM Corporation 57

58 Cognitive Cooking IBM Corporation 58

59 Watson Health is working to enhance, scale, and accelerate expertise across the domains of health and wellness, and to facilitate collaboration across the communities of care IBM Corporation 59

60 Data Insight Solutions Ecosystem Home Health Agencies Individual Education Population Health Management Population Health Management Practitioners Governments Condition Specific Care Condition Specific Care Hospitals Public Health Therapists Medical Devices and Diagnostics Health and Wellness Health and Wellness Health Plans Bio-Pharma Social Programs Social Programs Family Payers Social Programs Employers Discovery Solutions Real World Evidence Discovery Solutions Real World Evidence

61 As the Watson technology evolves and deepens, so too are the ways it s being put to work in the world. 29 Industries 36 Countries 80K Developers building with Watson 50,000 Students in Melbourne 1.1M Patients at Bumrungrad 5.5M Citizens in Singapore 5 Languages Learned by Watson 160 Universities offering Watson courses 400+ Partners Powered by Watson 61

62 What will you do with Watson?

63 2015 IBM Corporation 63