Land Development Risk Analysis for Virginia Statewide Mobility System

Transcription

1 Land Development Risk Analysis for Virginia Statewide Mobility System James H. Lambert and Shital Thekdi Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia Prepared for: Virginia Section of the Institute of Transportation Engineers Wintergreen, VA October 9, 2009

2 Acknowledgements VDOT Transportation and Mobility Planning Division Chad Tucker Robin Grier Marsha Fiol Rick Tambellini Kim Pryor Spence Katherine Graham Matthew Merrill Ross Hudnall Virginia Transportation Research Council John Miller Amy O Leary Mike Perfater 1

3 Acknowledgements (cont.) VDOT John Giometti - Culpeper District Planning Manager Paul Grasewicz - Asset Management Division Mary Lynn Tischer Director, Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment Robert Hofrichter Others Rick Carr Fauquier Planning Dept of Community Planning, Director Kimberley Fogle - Fauquier Planning Dept of Community Planning Talmage Reeves - Fauquier County Dept of Economic Development Karen Henderson - Fauquier Chamber of Commerce Jeff Walker - Rappahanock Rapidan PDC, Executive Director Mary Davis - Virginia Economic Development Partnership University of Virginia Matthew Schroeder, Alex Linthicum, Sandeep Pillutla E.K. Kim, L.R. Kincaid, S.M. Rash, G.W. Schmidt 2

4 Overview Introduction Background Methodology Statewide Training and Implementation Impact and Significance Likelihood of Land Development Very Low Low Med High 3

5 Introduction

6 Motivation 5700 miles of corridors Virginia s Statewide Mobility System Need to develop 5-10 year forecast for transportation planning Increasing vulnerability to development activity Escalating land values affects right of way acquisition Desire to avoid unnecessary congestion and costly retrofits Agencies and private sector must anticipate future development in corridors and take timely action Obtaining easements, developer proffers Access management Right-of-way acquisition 5

7 Goal Develop a repeatable, data-driven, GISbased methodology to identify and prioritize SMS corridors that are vulnerable to land development. 6

8 Background

9 Corridor Protection Potential fiscal and social benefits Many stakeholders Methods Access management Right-of-way acquisition Legal issues Sources: (Williams and Frey, 2003; Armour, Rose, Butler, and Waters, 2002; Corridor Capacity Preservation Program, 2002; Stokes, Russell, and Vellanki, 1994; Perfater, 1989; Kamprath and Miller, 2004) 8

10 Access Management Safety Congestion Network design Effects on businesses HB 2228 ODOT Access Management Manual Sources: (Plazak and Preston, 2005; Fifth National Conference on Access Management, 2005; NCHRP Synthesis 289, 2000; Bowman and Rushing, 1998; ODOT Access Management, 2004; Williams and Seggerman, 2004; NCHRP Synthesis 337, 2004) 9

11 Right of Way Acquisition Pressure to complete ROW estimations Lengthy acquisition process Uncertainties with damages and court costs Uneconomic remnants Common pitfalls Sources: (Corridor Capacity Preservation Program, 2002; Barnes and Watters, 2002; Heiner and Kockelman, 2005; Williams, Zhou, and Hagan, 2004;) 10

12 Map-Based Analyses Pertaining to Land Use UPLAN: A Versatile Urban Growth Model for Transportation Planning (Johnston and Shabazian, 2002) Characterizing urban land capacity (Landis, 2001) Smart Land-Use Analysis: The LUCIS Model (Zwick and Carr, 2007) An approach for greenway suitability analysis (Miller et al., 1998) Forecasting exurban development to evaluate the influence of land use policies on wildland and farmland conservation (Merenlender et al., 2005) 11

13 Map-Based Analyses Pertaining to Land Use (cont.) NASA SLEUTH Combines satellite imagery with NASA data in US Geological Survey Model Simulate future impact of future land use policy scenarios 12

14 Additional Data Sources Commercial land and home value databases ( Satellite imagery Federal urban housing and land development databases Parcels protected from development Population and economic development forecasts 13

15 Overview of Methodology

16 Overview of Methodology 1. Define Scope 15

17 1. Define Scope 2. Collect Data 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Prioritize Sections 9. Uses of Results 16

18 Scope A rural county with 32,000 parcels 17

19 Scope (cont.) Rural counties statewide

20 Scope (cont.) 5,700 mile Statewide Mobility System 19

21 1. Define Scope 2. Collect Data 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Prioritize Sections 9. Uses of Results 20

22 Factors Affecting Risk of Land Development CONSTRAINT FACTORS INDICATOR FACTORS MANAGEMENT FACTORS Public land Wetlands Conservation easements Employment centers Vacant & undervalued land Ag and forestal Transportation Districts Population & forecast Access point density Land assessment Utilities Aerial imagery Assessment values 21

23 1. Define Scope 2. Collect Data 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors Constraint: Protected Parcels 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Prioritize Sections 9. Uses of Results 22

24 Constraint: Protected Parcels Conservation Easements Parks and Schools Source: Fauquier County Department of Community Development; VDOT TPMD Agricultural and Forestal Districts 23

25 Indicator: Proximity of Major Corridors Buffers of road system selecting critical parcels 24

26 Indicator: Proximity of Major Corridors (cont.) 1 mile 0.25 miles Critical parcels 25

27 Indicator: Proximity of Intersections Number of Intersecting Corridors

28 Indicator: Proximity of Population Source: 2000 US Census 27

29 Indicator: Proximity of Employment Centers Employees 17,500 2, Source: Virginia Employment Commission,

30 Indicator: Economically Unsuitable Parcels Improvement-to-land ratio > 0.90 Not suitable <= 0.90 Suitable 29

31 1. Define Scope 2. Collect Data 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Prioritize Sections 9. Uses of Results 30

32 Combine Factors INDICATOR FACTORS CONSTRAINT FACTORS x x 5 Within 1 mile 3 One corridor Restricted 0 Econo 10 Within 1/4 mile6 Two corridors Not Restricted 1 Econo 10 Three corridors

33 Combine Factors Likelihood of Land Development Very Low Low Med High 32

34 1. Define Scope 2. Collect Data 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Prioritize Sections 9. Uses of Results 33

35 Six Corridors of a Rural County PR 55 I 66 R US 211 US 17 US 28 US 29 34

36 Six Corridors of a Rural County (cont.) I 66 Ramps miles US miles Acres Acres Land Val Avg Val per Avg Val per Acres Acres Land Val Avg Val per Avg Val per Parcels (K) (%) ($M) Parcel ($K) Acre ($K) Parcels (K) (%) ($M) Parcel ($K) Acre ($K) Very Low Very Low 2, Low Low Med Med High High 1, , , PR miles US miles Acres Acres Land Val Avg Val per Avg Val per Acres Acres Land Val Avg Val per Avg Val per Parcels (K) (%) ($M) Parcel ($K) Acre ($K) Parcels (K) (%) ($M) Parcel ($K) Acre ($K) Very Low Very Low 1, Low Low Med Med High High , , US miles US miles Acres Acres Land Val Avg Val per Avg Val per Acres Acres Land Val Avg Val per Avg Val per Parcels (K) (%) ($M) Parcel ($K) Acre ($K) Parcels (K) (%) ($M) Parcel ($K) Acre ($K) Very Low 6, , Very Low 5, Low Low Med 1, Med 1, High 2, High 1, , , , ,

37 Acres / Mile Distribution of Corridor Risk Priority Categories by Corridor Considering Economically Unsuitable Parcels Parcels within a mile of corridor centerline I 66 R PR 55 US 17 US 211 US 28 US 29 Very Low Low Med High 36

38 1. Define Scope 2. Collect Data 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Prioritize Sections 9. Uses of Results Management: Access Point Density 37

39 US 15 Management Factor: Access Points US 50 US 50 US 17 PR 55 I- 66 I- 66 PR 245 PR 55 US 17 PR 215 US 211 US-17 in a rural county US 17 PR access points BUS. US 15 US 17 Estimated from aerial imagery 38

40 Bealeton Midland Calverton Calverton Catlett Access Points Access Points on a Rural Corridor miles of US Low Volume Access Points High Volume Access Points 39

41 Bealeton Midland Calverton Calverton Catlett Priority Score Number of Access Points Access Points and Development Risk Screening sections for coincidence of risk and existing access Priority Score High Volume Access Points 40

42 Bealeton Midland Calverton Calverton Catlett Priority Score Value per Acre Land Value per Acre and Development Risk Screening sections to avoid costly belated action Priority Score Value Per Acre (100Ks) 41

43 1. Define Scope 2. Collect Data 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Prioritize Sections 9. Uses of Results 42

44 Uses of the Results Meeting critical mandates of the Code of Virginia Informing VDOT with a critical five-to-ten-year horizon to protect transportation assets of SMS Context sensitive corridor protection strategies Land use controls/concessions Network design and six year program Right of way acquisition 43

45 Uses of the Results (cont.) Access management 44

46 Impact and Significance

47 Impact and Significance Results can help develop proactive strategy that anticipate land development Five-to-ten-year forecast and action horizon Benchmarking across a statewide system Aiding in decisions for proposed rezoning, site plans, and subdivision plats Identifying where land use management controls should restrict future access 46

48 Impact and Significance (cont.) VDOT assisting counties and towns in complying with legislative acts Code of Virginia Chapter 527 (Section ) Proactive strategy that anticipates land development HB 3202 Identifying suitability of urban development areas Identifying traffic impact fee service areas HB2228/SB1312 Developing statewide access management standards 47

49 Impact and Significance (cont.) Approach is flexible to accommodate a variety of datasets Related efforts include: Land use and zoning Functional classification of corridors Green infrastructure (VDCR) Transportation infrastructure of additional modes such as bike and pedestrian, rail, bus, and air Out-of-county property owners Bird and animal migration corridors Source: Project Steering Committee, 10/18/2007; VDOT District Planners, 11/28/

50 Trainings via Site Visits and Teleconferences New River Valley PDC: Floyd, Giles, Montgomery, and Pulaski Lenowisco PDC: Wise and Scott Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Commission: Clarke, Frederick, Page, Shenandoah and Warren Mount Rogers PDC: Bland, Washington, Smyth, Wythe, Carroll, and Grayson West Piedmont PDC: Franklin, Henry, Patrick, and Pittsylvania Counties Commonwealth Regional Council: Amelia, Buckingham, Charlotte, Cumberland, Lunenburg, and Prince Edward 49

51 Trainings (cont.) George Washington Regional Commission: Caroline, King George, Spotsylvania, and Stafford Counties Accomack-Northampton PDC: Accomack and Northampton Middle Peninsula PDC: Essex, King & Queen, Middlesex, Gloucester, King William, and Matthews Southside PDC: Brunswick, Halifax, and Mecklenburg Cumberland Plateau PDC: Buchanan, Dickinson, Russell, and Tazewell Northern Neck PDC: Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond and Westmoreland 50

52 Trainings (cont.) Richmond Regional PDC: Goochland, Powhatan, Henrico, Chesterfield, New Kent, Charles City, and Hanover Roanoke Valley-Alleghany Regional Commission: Alleghany, Botetourt, Craig, Roanoke, and Franklin Central Shenandoah PDC: Augusta, Bath, Highland, Rockbridge, and Rockingham Thomas Jefferson PDC: Charlottesville-Albemarle Metropolitan Planning Organization Albemarle, Fluvanna, Louisa, Greene, and Nelson Hampton Roads PDC: Isle of Wright, James City, Southampton, Surry, and York 51

53 Trainings (cont.) Rappahannock-Rapidan Regional Commission: Rappahannock, Fauquier, Madison, Orange, and Culpeper Region 2000: Cities of Bedford and Lynchburg Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, and Campbell Richmond Area GIS Users Group, Spring 2009 Hampton Roads GIS Users Group, Spring 2009 VA GIS Conference, Roanoke, Fall 2008 VA PDC Summer Conference, Summer 2008 Virginia s Rural Transportation Planning Program, Fall