Similarities and Differences in Export Performance of EU New Member States: A Constant Market Share Analysis

Transcription

1 Similarities and Differences in Export Performance of EU New Member States: A Constant Maret Share Analysis Georgi Momchilov and Marina Dyadova All views are our own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Bulgarian National Ban

2 Structure Constant Maret Shares Analysis Data and Implementation The Product Effect The Competitiveness Effect Conclusions

3 Constant Maret Shares Analysis - Overview

4 Constant Maret Shares Analysis CMS decomposes the difference between the growth of exports on the intensive margin of a country and world exports growth into two main effects: structural effect and competitiveness effect. The structural effect can be additionally decomposed into Product effect Maret effect Structural mixed effect The structural and competitiveness effects can be further decomposed into their components.

5 Constant Maret Shares Analysis g p X g X p p j j X j X ( a a ) g ( a a ) g j j Product Effect Maret Effect a p p p ( a X X X j a ) g a j ( g g ) Structural Effect [( a p ) ( a Competitiveness Effect a p p a ) ( a j a j ) ] gx a a j Structural Mixed Effect a gx exports growth; α share of product/maret in country s export; p country of interest; (asteris) world; product group; j destination maret;

6 Data and Implementation

7 Data and Implementation Source: UNCOMTRADE Data: SITC -digit trade data in nominal USD Period: Frequency: Annual Coverage: 3 countries CMS decomposition calculated for: Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic

8 Data and Implementation Bulgaria 5 Romania Poland 5 Hungary World Trade Effect Product Effect Maret Effect Product/Maret Effect Competitiveness Effect Residual Export Growth

9 Data and Implementation Lithuania 5 Latvia Czech Republic 5 Germany World Trade Effect Product Effect Maret Effect Product/Maret Effect Competitiveness Effect Residual Export Growth

10 The Product Effect

11 The Product Effect g X a p a ( a p a measures specialization/non - specialization in product relative to rest of world is growth of demand for product (growth of world exports of ) g X ) The contribution of product to the product effect is positive, if: 1. The exporter is relatively specialized in and the growth of the demand for (total world export of ) is positive. The exporter is relatively non-specialized in and the growth of the demand for (total world export of ) is negative Vice versa is true for a negative contribution to growth.

12 The Product Effect Product groups which contribute most to the growth of exports by country through the structural product channel in the period 1. Bulgaria Romania Poland Hungary Latvia Lithuania Czech Rep. Apparel, Footwear and Furniture (8, 8, 85) 17. p.p 6.3 p.p 5.7 p.p.6 p.p 7. p.p 8.7 p.p 1. p.p Metals and Ores (8, 67-69) 3.3 p.p 7.8 p.p.8 p.p.7 p.p.7 p.p Food (1-5, 8, 11) 1. p.p.8 p.p 1. p.p 3.3 p.p. p.p Machines and Electrical Equipment (71, 7-79). p.p.9 p.p 1.6 p.p 1. p.p 8.7 p.p Energy (3, 33, 35) 7.3 p.p 3.1 p.p.1 p.p. p.p 3.7 p.p.5 p.p Others (6, 63, 65,,, 56, 81).9 p.p 3.1 p.p. p.p.3 p.p 16.5 p.p 8.3 p.p 1.3 p.p added-up annual contributions to growth of the top ten highest contributors for each country are included in the table

13 The Product Effect Bulgaria Romania Textiles, Footwear & Furniture Machines and Electrical Equipment Average of others Textiles, Footwear & Furniture Machines and Electrical Equipment Average of others Poland Hungary Textiles, Footwear & Furniture Machines and Electrical Equipment Average of others Machines and Electrical Equipment Energy Average of others

14 The Product Effect Latvia Lithuania Textiles, Footwear & Furniture Machines and Electrical Equipment Average of others Machines and Electrical Equipment Energy Average of others Czech Republic Machines and Electrical Equipment Energy Average of others

15 The Competitiveness Effect

16 The Competitiveness Effect a p gx is p the share of gx is product product the difference in the growth rate of to maret ( gx exported to maret j j a p p gx j in total exports of the exports of country relative to the 'average' exporting country ) country p p's The competitiveness effect in the CMS analysis is a residual effect for the growth of the intensive margin. It represents stealing maret shares from competitors (drive competitors out of the maret).

17 The Competitiveness Effect Product groups which contribute most to the growth of exports by country through the competitiveness channel in the period 1. Bulgaria Romania Poland Hungary Latvia Lithuania Czech Rep. Machines and Electrical Equipment (71 79, 87) 11.3 p.p 5. p.p 53.6 p.p. p.p 15.7 p.p 7.6 p.p 6.3 p.p Metals and Ores (66 69) 15.1 p.p.9 p.p 3.9 p.p 8.1 p.p. p.p.9 p.p Apparel, Furniture and Other Manufactures (65, 8, 8, 89) 11.5 p.p 6.8 p.p 9.3 p.p 1.5 p.p 1.7 p.p. p.p Food (, 5, 11). p.p.9 p.p 8. p.p 6.5 p.p Energy (33) 7.1 p.p Others (5, 57, 6 6) 6.5 p.p.9 p.p. p.p 5.1 p.p.6 p.p 1.7 p.p added-up annual contributions to growth of the top ten highest contributors for each country are included in the table

18 The Competitiveness Effect Bulgaria Romania Textiles, Footwear & Furniture Machines and Electrical Equipment Average of others Textiles, Footwear & Furniture Machines and Electrical Equipment Average of others Poland Hungary Textiles, Footwear & Furniture Machines and Electrical Equipment Average of others Machines and Electrical Equipment Average of others

19 The Competitiveness Effect Latvia Lithuania Machines and Electrical Equipment Average of others Machines and Electrical Equipment Energy Average of others Czech Republic Machines and Electrical Equipment Average of others

20 Conclusions The competitiveness factors contribute positively to the growth of exports for all NMS between and 1. In general low-tech products still have the highest contribution to the structural effect of growth A slight shift towards more value-added goods is observed mainly machines and electrical equipment Traditional export products lie foods, apparel, footwear and furniture are losing focus However, heterogeneity among countries in terms of product specialization is clearly visible

21 THANK YOU!