Determining the Land Use Impact of Two Midwestern Corn Ethanol Plants

Transcription

1 Determining the Land Use Impact of Two Midwestern Corn Ethanol Plants Prepared by: Steffen Mueller and Ken Copenhaver Prepared for: Illinois Corn Marketing Board Date: September 18, 2009

2 Summary The present study is part of an ongoing effort by the University of Illinois at Chicago Energy Resources Center (UIC-ERC) to consistently evaluate the land use and the global warming impact of corn ethanol production. The study looks at the direct land use changes in the vicinity of two ethanol plants located in Illinois: the Illinois River Energy Center (IRE) ethanol plant located in Rochelle and the Patriot Renewable Fuels (PRF) plant located in Annawan. Both studied ethanol plants have rail access that enables them to deliver to the California market. The study provides an innovative approach to relate direct land use changes determined with high resolution satellite imagery to direct greenhouse gas emissions from the land use changes (while also accounting for different time horizons). Then, the direct land use emissions are added to the remainder of the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions (from the ethanol plant, distribution, denaturing process) to derive a total direct (including direct land use) life cycle global warming impact (GWI) for corn ethanol produced at a specific plant (IRE). Furthermore, data derived from the local, plant-level, land use analysis is compared to state-wide corn production and land use data. Land use surrounding IRE and GWI of its corn ethanol was assessed in previous studies conducted by the University of Illinois at Chicago Energy Resources Center (UIC-ERC). 1 However, IRE recently expanded its capacity from 58 million gallons per year (mgpy) to 115 mgpy. The expanded plant started operating in November This presents also a unique opportunity to provide a longer term assessment of how the land use and the global warming impact change with larger ethanol production volumes produced at the same location. Land use surrounding PRF has not been previously assessed. PRF started operation in September 2008 with a capacity of 100 mgpy. Both IRE and PRF are located in relatively close proximity with a portion of the corn supply area overlapping. The study findings include the following: The start up of PRF and IRE (expansion) prompted very little conversion of nonagricultural to agricultural land. The land use analysis performed for the corn supply areas showed that less than 1,000 acres were converted in the vicinity of either plant. With respect to land conversion, at a maximum 534 acres of forest (and 105 acres of grassland) were converted to corn around IRE and 609 acres (and 6 acres of grassland) were converted to corn around PRF. This finding supports the notion that corn ethanol plants have a weak influence on direct nonagricultural land conversions. 1 Mueller, S. and K. Copenhaver (2008). A Bottom-Up Assessment of Land Use Related to Corn Ethanol Production. Available at and Mueller, Steffen and Michelle Wander, Ken Copenhaver (2008). Global Warming and Land Use Impact of Corn Ethanol Produced at the Illinois River Energy Center ; Report prepared for the Illinois Corn Growers Association. Available at 2

3 Using a spreadsheet model (Direct Land Use Mapper dluc-mapper ) developed by the UIC-ERC and land carbon factors from IPCC the greenhouse gas emissions from direct land use changes were assessed. The study finds that the direct land use changes would result in GHG emissions of 1.2 gco 2 /MJ for IRE (30 year no discount) and 1.3 gco 2 /MJ for PRF (30 year no discount). The respective 100 year, 2% discounted GHG emissions are, as expected, slightly lower. The GWI from direct emissions of corn ethanol produced at the expanded IRE plant was reassessed as part of the present study. The GWI of the expanded plant is slightly lower at 53.5 compared to 54.8 gco 2 e/mj for the original plant. The difference is a combination of the different energy demand, the different ethanol yield, and the different DDGS production volume. Adding the 1.2 gco 2 e/mj direct land use emissions to the remaining life cycle emissions of 53.5 gco 2 e/mj, results in total direct (including direct land use) GHG life cycle emissions for IRE of 54.7 gco 2 e/mj. Despite the start-up of both PRF and IRE (expansion) in the fall of 2008 acres in corn in 2008 went down. During the start-up of the original IRE ethanol plant in 2006 acres in corn in the region increased to levels that could not be attributed to the ethanol plant demand (see original UIC-ERC study). Then, during the start-up of the expanded plant corn acres in the region went actually down (by 37,634 acres between the years ). Likewise, corn acres around PRF went also down by 18,020 acres providing further evidence that the ethanol plants have a weak influence on corn rotations. Also, in IRE s case, an additional 340,000 acres of grass/pasture/hay land and in PRF s case an additional 84,000 acres would have been available in 2008 for conversion to corn acres. This did not occur supporting the notion that the studied corn ethanol plants have a weak influence on agricultural land use in general. With intensive pasture and hay management some of these acres would still be available for additional corn production without associated indirect land use change effects. Furthermore, the study analyzed Illinois-wide corn supply and use data. The analysis shows that corn production increases on constant corn acres were sufficient to support both increasing exports as well as corn for ethanol use. Consequently, the studied ethanol plants a) did not influence local land use b) did not prompt indirect land use in the State of Illinois, c) did not influence the Illinois corn export balance. 3

4 1) Land Use Surrounding IRE As part of the original IRE study in 2007, we conducted a survey with growers delivering to the ethanol plant and concluded that an area consisting of a 40 mile circular radius would provide a good representation of the corn supply region for the plant. In support of the present study, IRE provided us with the addresses of all growers delivering directly to the plant, which allowed an even more accurate determination of the corn supply region. Direct grower deliveries account for approximately 60% of all corn delivered to IRE; the rest is sourced through grain elevators. We graphed the grower locations and determined a circular corn draw area that would include a representative amount of growers: We found that a circular corn draw area with a 40 mile radius would include 83% of the grower addresses while increasing the radius to 43 miles (expanding the radius to the Wisconsin border) would capture 92% of the grower addresses. We determined that a 43 mile radius would be a good representation of the corn supply area for the expanded IRE plant. The grower addresses and 43 mile circular area overlaid on top of the Illinois county map is shown in Figure 1. Addresses of Growers Delivering to IRE 43 Mile Circle IRE Figure 1: Growers Delivering to the Expanded IRE Plant In a next step, we analyzed land use and land use changes within the 43 mile radius corn supply area over the period of 2006, 2007, and This analysis was performed using the USDA NASS Cropland Data Layers (for crop types) which includes the national land cover dataset (for non-cropland conversions). The software used for this analysis was Erdas Imagine 9.1 developed by Leica Geosystems. While the USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer has been shown to have accurate methods of around 95% for the delineation of corn and soybeans and that dataset is updated every year, the national land cover data set dates back to 2001 and introduces much higher uncertainties for non-agricultural areas. Therefore, the present study analyzes the data 4

5 layers by a) applying an algorithm that subtracts the unlikely rotation scenario of land in agriculture converting to non-agricultural land and then back to agricultural land, and b) subtracts field fringes and roadway buffers. This approach has been shown by Mueller and Copenhaver (2009) to increase the accuracy of land use change analyses of this type. 2 As can be seen in Table 1 the corn draw area includes a total of 3.7 million acres. The area in corn ranges between 1.4 and 1.7 million acres. Land use change from non agricultural lands associated with the introduction of the ethanol plant within the 43 mile radius circle is shown to be minimal (see Table 2). Of the 3.7+ million acres in the study area just over 1,000 acres were found to be converted from non-agricultural categories (grasslands, forest) from 2006 to 2007 and even fewer were converted from 2007 to 2008 after vetting the data for road fringes and misclassification associated with conversions from agriculture to non-agriculture and back to agriculture. This small percentage is well within the classification error of the dataset and could very well be attributed to misclassified pixels, indicating land use change from non-agricultural classes to agriculture did not, in all likelihood, occur despite the introduction of the ethanol plant. Furthermore, based on the USEPA s definition of agricultural land (cropland, pasture and CRP) in the RFS2, there were over 340,000 acres still available for conversion from pasture/hay to corn for ethanol production in the corn supply area in 2007 and With intensive pasture and hay management these acres could produce additional corn without associated indirect land use change effects. 2 Mueller, S. and K. Copenhaver (2009). Use of Remote Sensing to Measure Land Use Change from Biofuels Production. Article submitted to Swords and Ploughshares - Special Issue on Sustainable Biofuels and Human Security - A Publication of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security (ACDIS), March 26,

6 Table 1: Land Use Surrounding IRE 2006 Unvetted 2007 Unvetted 2008 Unvetted Corn 1,391,597 1,694,145 1,656,511 Soybeans 955, , ,208 Total Corn and Soybeans 2,347,025 2,308,544 2,322,719 Other Land Uses 1,373,378 1,411,859 1,397,684 Totals: 3,720,403 3,720,403 3,720,403 Table 2: Corn Acre Land Use Surrounding IRE 2007 Corn Acres in 2006 Unvetted Vetted ag-nonag-ag Vetted Corn 773, , ,689 Soybeans 753, , ,530 idle cropland/ fallow 8,042 8,040 5,019 Grasslands 8, Forest 4,126 1, pasture/grass/hay 106, ,687 54,352 Ag removed 13,190 7,893 Road borders removed 306, corn acres in 2007 Unvetted Vetted ag-nonag-ag Vetted Corn 1,010,063 1,010, ,408 Soybeans 515, , ,697 idle cropland/ fallow Grasslands 2, Forest 10, pasture/grass/hay 40,656 40,656 29,091 Ag removed 51,736 16,252 Road borders removed 301,131 As stated above, the expanded plant started operation in November 2008 drawing corn from the 2008 harvest. The plant production levels of the original IRE plant and the expanded plant and the corresponding yields and land demands are shown in Table 3. It is evident that the expanded plant did not prompt additional corn acre conversions. In fact, between the years corn acres decreased slightly by 37,634. While a relatively large increase of corn acres was observed between (302,548 acres), this increase is also likely unrelated to the start up of the original ethanol plant in 2006 since the increase far exceeded the ethanol plant s original corn land demand of 116,777 acres. Taking prevailing yield levels into account, the original and expanded plant require less than 13% of corn acres within the draw area to meet the corn 6

7 demand. Note that the plant also produces animal feed and that therefore the land demand that should be attributed to corn ethanol production is lower than 13%. Table 3: IRE Land Demand Corn Acres 1,391,597 1,694,145 1,656,511 Ethanol Production (gallons) 55,820,804 55,820, ,280,111 Average ethanol yield per bushel (gal/bu) Required Bushels 20,447,181 20,447,181 37,851,220 Yield in Surrounding Counties (bu/acre) Required Acres 116, , ,849 Corn Land Demand (%) 8.3% 6.5% 12.9% 2) Land Use Surrounding PRF In an analysis of growers delivering to PRF, plant personnel determined that 90% of corn receipts are within a 23 mile circle which includes the cities of Princeton, Prophetstown, Geneseo, Kewanee. Multiple reasons may contribute to the fact that the supply area for PRF is smaller than the one for IRE including significantly less urban shares. Also, as can be seen in Figure 2 the corn supply areas for PRF and IRE overlap slightly. Corn Supply Areas for IRE and PRF IRE PRF Addresses for growers delivering to IRE in 2008 (>95%) City addresses for growers delivering to Patriot in 2008 (>90%) Figure 2: Growers Delivering to IRE and PRF With the boundaries of the corn supply area established, we performed the land use analysis for the years 2006, 2007, and As can be seen in Table 4 the corn supply area includes a total of 1.1 million acres. The area in corn ranges between 441,000 to 3 USDA NASS County Crop Yield Report. 7

8 541,000 acres. As was the case for the IRE plant, land use change from non agricultural lands associated with the introduction of the PRF ethanol plant within the 23 mile radius circle is shown to be minimal. Of the 1.1 million acres in the study area just over 600 acres were found to be converted from non-agricultural categories from 2007 to 2008 after vetting the data for road fringes and misclassification associated with conversions from agriculture to non-agriculture and back to agriculture (see Table 5). Furthermore, based on the USEPA s definition of agricultural land (cropland, pasture and CRP) in the RFS2, there were over 84,000 acres still available for conversion from pasture/hay to corn for ethanol production in the polygon in 2007 and Again, with intensive pasture and hay management some of these acres would also be available for additional corn production without associated indirect land use change effects. Figure 3 confirms the grass/pasture hay classifications include large contiguous areas suitable for conversion. PRF and IRE Acres in Pasture/Hay Category 340,421 acres in IRE Corn Supply Area 83,729 acres in PRF Corn Supply Area 2008 Pasture/Hay 2008 Other Classes Figure 3: Grass/Pasture/Hay Acreage in 2008 The PRF plant started operation in September 2008 drawing corn from the 2008 harvest. Consistent with the findings for the IRE plant, the PRF plant did not prompt additional corn acre conversions. In fact, between the years corn acres decreased slightly by 18,020 acres. Table 4: Land Use Surrounding PRF 2006 unvetted 2007 unvetted 2008 unvetted Corn 441, , ,937 Soybeans 351, , ,608 Total Corn and Soybeans 792, , ,545 Other Land Uses 271, , ,485 Total Acres 1,064,633 1,064,840 1,065,030 8

9 Table 5: Corn Acre Land Use Surrounding PRF 2008 corn acres in 2007 Unvetted Vetted for Ag-nonag-ag Vetted Corn 306, , ,436 Soybeans 190, , ,974 Winter wheat 5,051 5,051 4,142 Other crops 1,111 1, Fallow/idle cropland Grassland Forest 5, Pasture/Grass/Hay 14,434 14,434 10,134 Ag/Non-Ag/Ag removed 21,236 6,717 Road borders removed 102,222 Due to the smaller supply circle, PRF s corn land demand to supply the plant as a percentage of overall corn land within the supply circle is much higher than for IRE (34.3% for PRF compared to 13% for IRE). 4 This indicates, however, that higher shares of corn acres going to corn ethanol production do not result in increased conversion of non agricultural land. Note that the plant also produces animal feed and that therefore the land demand that should be attributed to corn ethanol production is lower than 34%. Table 6: PRF Land Demand Corn Acres 540,937 Ethanol Production (gallons) 100,000,000 Average ethanol yield per bushel (gal/bu) 2.8 Required Bushels 35,714,286 Yield in Surrounding Counties (bu/acre) Required Acres 185,529 Corn Land Demand (%) 34.30% 3) Correlating Ethanol Plant Corn Supply with Illinois Corn Supply Since, as demonstrated above, ethanol plants have a very weak influence on land use in their vicinity, one could assert that the plants must alter land use elsewhere (i.e. indirectly). To test this effect we analyzed Illinois corn production, export, and uses. The ProExporter Network s Senior Economist Ross Korves provided the data reproduced in Figure 4 and Figure 5. As can be seen, over the last 35 years production of corn nearly doubled from 1.2 to 2.2 billion bushels. In fact production increases are strong enough to support both increases in the other uses category, which includes corn delivered to ethanol plants, and corn exports. Furthermore, carryout corn or the amount of corn on hand at the end of the marketing year (inventory) has also been increasing. Feedcorn, on 4 Note that PRF also produces animal feed and that therefore the actual land demand is lower. 9

10 the other hand, has been decreasing which may be indicative of decreasing livestock but also increased use of distillers grain as feedstock. Furthermore, while corn production increased over the time period corn acres in Illinois remained relatively constant (see Figure 6). In summary, the Illinois corn supply and use data shows that corn production increases on relatively constant corn acres were sufficient to support both increasing exports as well as corn for ethanol use. Consequently, the studied ethanol plants a) did not influence local land use b) did not prompt indirect land use in the State of Illinois, c) did not influence the Illinois corn export balance. 2,500,000 Illinois Corn Production and Use (Years ) 2,000,000 thousand bushel 1,500,000 1,000, , Production CarryOut FeedUse OtherUse NetExports Figure 4: Illinois Corn Production and Use ,500,000 Illinois Corn Production and Use (Years ) 2,000,000 thousand bushel 1,500,000 1,000, , Production CarryOut FeedUse OtherUse NetExports Figure 5: Illinois Corn Production and Use

11 Illinois Planted Corn Acres 14,000 thousand acres 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Figure 6: USDA NASS Statistics on Illinois Planted Corn Acres (Source: These findings are consistent with the overall US export balance. The data compiled by Dr. Darrel Good (U of I Department of Agriculture Economics) and reproduced in Appendix A shows that the US was able to provide a) relatively constant corn exports and b) slightly increasing soy exports on relatively constant principal crop acres. 4) Relating Land use Change to Greenhouse Gas Emissions As detailed above, at a maximum, 534 acres of forest (and 105 acres of grassland) were converted to corn around IRE and 609 acres (and 6 acres of grassland) were converted to corn around PRF during plant start-up. Using a spreadsheet model (Direct Land Use Mapper dluc-mapper ) developed by the UIC-ERC (posted at input screen reproduced in Appendix C) and land carbon factors from IPCC these direct land use conversions would result in GHG emissions of 1.2 gco 2 /MJ for IRE (30 year no discount) and 1.3 gco 2 /MJ for PRF (30 year no discount). The respective 100 year, 2% discounted GHG emissions are, as expected, slightly lower (see Table 7). 5 5 The employed IPCC factors are world average factors for temperate forests. Ideally, emissions factors specific to Midwestern forests should be used but were not available to the author at the time of the study. 11

12 Table 7: Direct Land Use Emissions Attributable to two Illinois Corn Ethanol Plants IRE PRF Ethanol Volume (Billion Gallons) Forest Grassland Year No Discount GHG Emissions (gco2/mj) Year 2% Discount GHG Emissions (gco2/mj) These GHG emissions values which are representative of domestic direct land use effects were derived using a) high resolution remote sensing tools with accuracies exceeding 95%, combined with b) published IPCC emissions factors, and c) an easily verifiable spreadsheet model 5) The Global Warming Impact of Corn Ethanol Produced at IRE The GWI of corn ethanol produced at the expanded IRE plant was assessed by parameterizing Argonne s GREET model (Version 1.8c) with the energy and production values supplied by IRE listed in Appendix B. Parameterization of GREET was performed using an Interface Macro Tool developed by Life Cycle Associates. The input screen of the Interface Macro Tool is reproduced in Appendix D. The key parameters that were substituted for the GREET default values include the actual ethanol yield (per bushel corn) of the plant, the actual natural gas and electricity demand (and the Illinois electricity grid mix), the actual transportation distances of corn and ethanol, and the blend of denaturant. The GREET current default value for land use change was not included in the analysis. The results are shown in Table 8 and Figure 7. The GWI of the expanded Illinois River corn ethanol plant totals 53.5 gco 2 e/mj for the denatured corn ethanol and 53.2 gco 2 e/mj for the anhydrous corn ethanol. This is close to the original IRE Plant of 54.8 gco 2 e/mj. The direct land use change greenhouse gas emissions for IRE (30 year, no discount), as assessed above, total 1.2 gco 2 e/mj. Adding theses emissions to the remaining life cycle emissions of 53.5 gco 2 e/mj, results in total direct (including direct land use) GHG life cycle emissions for IRE of 54.7 gco 2 e/mj. Table 8: GWI of IRE2 Produced Corn Ethanol Gasoline IRE2 Ethanol Ag Phase and Distribution 23.8 Ethanol Plant 29.4 Denaturant 0.3 IRE Total Gasoline

13 The GWI of Corn Ethanol Produced at the Expanded Illinois River Energy Ethanol Plant gco2 e/mj Gasoline IRE2 Ethanol Denaturant Ethanol Plant Ag Phase and Distribution Figure 7: GWI of the Expanded IRE Plant 13

14 Appendix A: US Crop Data Provided by U of I Department of Agriculture Economics U.S. Principal Crop Acres (million acres) US Corn Exports B illio n B u s h e ls US Soybean Exports Billion Bushels

15 Appendix B: Energy and Production Parameters of the Original and Expanded IRE Plant Unit IRE1 IRE2 Plant Performance: Annual total anhydrous ethanol production gallon per year 55,820, ,280,111 Annual total denatured ethanol production gallon per year 57,812, ,709,420 Description of denaturant used (type) Debutanized Natural DNG DNG Gasoline Average ethanol yield per bushel (anhydrous) gal/bu Plant Energy Systems: Annual total natural gas consumption HHV Btu 1,671,765,900,000 3,000,521,873,185 Annual total electricity consumption kwh 39,898,320 72,057,134 Natural Gas (HHV) per unit Anhydrous Ethanol Btu/gal 29,949 28,757 Production Natural Gas (HHV) per unit Denatured Ethanol Btu/gal 28,917 28,071 Production Natural Gas (LHV) per unit Anhydrous Ethanol 26,981 25,907 Production Natural Gas (LHV) per unit Denatured Ethanol 26,051 25,289 Production Electricity per unit Anhydrous Ethanol Production kwh/gal Electricity per unit Denatured Ethanol Production kwh/gal By-Products: Annual total DDGS production tons 153, ,939 Annual avg DDGS moisture % Annual total WDG(S) production tons 13,488 7,340 Annual avg WDG(S) moisture % Annual total S production - as product sold tons 5,036 7,990 Annual avg S moisture % Transportation Logistics: Corn by truck % Corn by rail % 0 0 DDGS shipments by truck % Backhaul 11.1 Shipment DDGS shipments by rail % Backhaul 1.82 Shipment DDGS shipments by ship % Backhaul Shipment WDGS shipments by truck % Ethanol shipments by truck % Ethanol shipments by rail % Ethanol shipments by barge % 0 0 Avg ethanol distance transported by truck (per trip mi one way) Avg ethanol distance transported by rail (per trip - mi 1, one way) Avg ethanol distance transport from terminal to mi retail outlet (per trip one way) DDGS (11% Moisture) lbs/gal DDGS equivalent of WDGS (corrected to 11% tons 3,743 Moisture) DDGS equivalent of WDGS lbs/gal Total DDGS equivalent lbs/gal 5.48 Denaturant by % 2.3% 15

16 Appendix C: Direct GHG Emissions Spreadsheet Model Direct GHG Emissions Surrounding Corn Ethanol Plants Author: Steffen Mueller, PhD Copyright: University of Illinois at Chicago Yellow Cells Allow Customization for Different Ethanol Plants Ethanol Plants: IRE PRF Plant Ethanol Volume (Billion Gallons) Land Conversion: Forest Land Conversion: Grassland Ethanol Volume Billion Gallons Production Years (Foregone C-Sequestration Period) List of Possible Durations: Select Duration: 30 Years Analytical Horizon (Amortization, Above Ground Carbon Release Horizon) Select Duration 30 Years List of Possible Durations: Recovered Carbon (Restoration of original vegetation after biofuels program) Input Recovered Carbon: 0% Percent for 0% use to avoid division by 0 Emissions Discounting Method Error Message: Carbon Recovery Time Insufficient Input Discount Rate: 0.00% Percent Carbon Flux Duration Starting in Year Above Ground Biomass 1 0 Below Ground Biomass 5 0 Foregone Net Primary Production 30 0 Recovered Carbon Region Area Cover Change (acre) Area Cover Change (ha) Undiscounted Emissions Factors Above Ground tc/ha Below Ground tc/ha Net Primary Production tc/ha-yr Forest Grassland Region Net Present Value of Emissions Factors Recovered Carbon Net Emissions Above Ground tc/ha Below Ground tc/ha Net Primary Production tc/ha-yr NPV tc/ha Recovered Carbon - Undiscounte d Recover ed Carbon - Discoun ted Forest tco2/ha Forest Grassland Forest tco2e Grassland tco2e Forest+Grassl. tco2e Total Emissions tco2e 270,138 57, ,890 Annualized Emissions tco2e 9,006 1,925 10,931 Annualized Emissions gco2e/gal Annualized Emissions gco2e/mj Indirect Land Use Change (gco2e/mj):

17 Appendix D: GREET Interface Macro Tool for IRE Corn Ethanol Corn Cultivation General Target year 2010 Corn farming energy (Btu/bu) 7,800 Bailing energy (Btu/bu) 0 Total ag. energy input (Btu/bu) 7,800 Corn yield (Bu/acre) Stover Yield (Tons/acre) 0.00 Bu per ton stover Farming Energy Shares Diesel 100.0% Gasoline 0.0% Natural Gas 0.0% LPG 0.0% Electricity 0.0% Electricity Generation Mix for Farming Electricity mix IL SERC Fuel shares if electricity mix is "User Defined": Residual oil 1.8% Natural gas 10.0% Coal 57.3% Nuclear 25.2% Biomass 1.9% Other (renewables) 3.8% Chemical Inputs (Fertilizer, Herbicide, Insecticide) International N input (g/bu) Production Share Ocean Tanker (mi) Ammonia 70.7% 60.0% 3,000 Urea 21.1% 60.0% 5,200 Ammonium nitrate 8.2% 60.0% 3,700 P 2 O 5 input (g/bu) % 4,200 K 2O input (g/bu) % 3,900 CaCO 3 input (g/bu) 1, % Herbicide input (g/bu) % 4,000 Insecticide input (g/bu) % 4,000 Soil N Emissions Baseline N content of above and below ground biomass (g/bu) N removed in stover 0.0 Above and below ground N available for N2O loss N in N 2 O as % of N in fertilizer and biomass 1.3% Land Use Change and Sustainability Land-use change CO 2 emissions (g/bu)

18 Corn and Stover Transport Corn Field to Stack Distance (mi) Share Medium duty truck % Corn Stack to Ethanol Plant Distance (mi) Share Barge % Rail % Heavy duty truck % Corn Stover Transport Distance (mi) Share Heavy duty truck % Dry Mill Ethanol Plant (Anhydrous EtOH Basis) Thermal energy for NG, coal, biomass (Btu/gal EtOH), LHV 25,907 Ethanol yield (gal/bu) 2.76 Dry Mill Ethanol Plant Thermal Energy Shares: Natural gas 100.0% Coal 0.0% Biomass 0.0% Biomass type shares Farmed Trees 0.0% Herbaceous biomass 0.0% Corn stover 100.0% Electricity Inputs Imported grid electricity (kwh/gal EtOH) 0.69 Biomass-based electricity export (kwh/gal EtOH) 0.00 Electricity Generation Efficiency 32.1% Displaced electricity mix for co-product electricity GREET Selected DGS co-product displacement ratios DGS yield (wet lbs/gal) DGS displacing feed corn (lb/lb co-prod.) DGS displacing soybean meal (lb/lb co-prod.) DGS displacing N in Urea (lb/lb co-prod.) % co-products used for new feed markets 0.0% Methane reduction from cattle fed with DGS instead of corn -3,381 Transport & Distribution Ethanol Plant to Bulk Terminal Distance (mi) Share Barge % Pipeline % Rail % Heavy duty truck % Bulk Terminal to Refueling Station Heavy duty truck to fuel station % Fuel Combustion Vehicle methane emissions (g/mi) Vehicle nitrous oxide emissions (g/mi) Vehicle energy use (Btu/mi)