PRX Grain Market Overview

Transcription

1 PRX The ProExporter Network Grain, Oilseed & Biofuel Fundamentals Updated 4/1/18 PRX Grain Market Overview US Major Grains Crop Years 217/18 & 218/19 with USDA Apr 1, 218 WASDE PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 1

2 PRX Forecast Summary, Major Crops, New Crop Year PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 US CORN US SORGHUM US SOYBEANS US WHEAT Item PRX PRX PRX PRX PRX PRX PRX PRX Unit Carry-in mil bu Area planted thou ac Area harvested thou ac Yield bu/ac Production mil bu Imports mil bu Supply mil bu Feed/Residual Use mil bu Industrial Use mil bu of which, fuel ethanol mil bu mil gals Total Domestic Use mil bu Foreign Exports mil bu Total Use mil bu Carry-out mil bu US Farm Price cts/bu PRX supply-demand factors are based on independent analysis, and will frequently be different than USDA's. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 2

3 Soybean and Corn Area Planted & Value, PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 Item Area Planted Soybeans mil ac Corn mil ac Subtotal mil ac Supply Soybeans bil bu Corn bil bu Farm Price Soybeans $/bu Corn $/bu Crop Supply Value Soybeans $bil Corn $bil Subtotal $bil Value Soy + Corn $/acre Area Planted Principal Crops* mil ac Share Soy + Corn pct 4% 47% 48% 53.% 53.3% 53.5% 55.6% 56.5% 55.7% *USDA-NASS current data series for "Principal Crops" begins in 1993 Area planted of corn and soybeans falls 3.3 million acres from last year. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 3

4 US Major Field Crops Area Planted, 99- to Crop Years PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 Crop All Feedgrains Oilseeds Corn + Total All Hay Principal Total year Wheat Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Total Soy Sunseed Canola Total Soy Cotton Major & Other Crops CRP w/crp mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac Change from previous year, based on PRX forecast Latest crop year based on latest USDA-NASS suvey data and best judgment of PRX. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 4

5 Corn Area Planted Change, vs. Previous Year Corn Area Planted, Ac State Change 1 IA KS MN MO ND NE SD WI WCB IL IN KY MI OH ECB NE SE SC West For 218 US Corn Area Planted is forecast to be down thou acres. US PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 5

6 Bushels per acre US Corn Yield & Trends, PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 Share by Stacked Varieties, percent 15 Stacked Gene 14 Varieties, share of all seeds 13 (USDA-NASS) Actual, or latest PRX PRX adopted trend, United States Forecast Adoption of GMO seeds begins in mid-9s, stacked genes in 2s, slowed in 21, big jump in The corn yield trend is increasing about 1.9 bushel/acre. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 6

7 Corn Production Change, vs. Previous Year Corn Production, Mil Bu State Change IA KS MN MO ND NE SD WI WCB IL IN KY MI OH ECB NE SE SC West For 218 US Corn Production is forecast to be down 619 mil bu. US PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 7

8 GRAIN ETHANOL BUSHEL CONVERSIONS FOR CROP YEAR PRX 218, File PRX_BS_Assumptions_Ryan, Apr-1-18 Days Months Ethanol Production Ethanol Prdn & Forecast USDA PRX per of EIA Petroleum Supply EIA Short-Term WASDE Blue Sky Month Crop Monthly Energy Outlook Estimates Latest Year (PSM) (STEO) Forecast Apr-18 Apr-18 Apr-18 Apr-18 Monthly Annual- Monthly Annual- Annual- Annualized ized ized ized mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal 3 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul USDA PRX 31 Aug Formula Formula Crop Yr Crop Yr Crop Yr Crop Yr YTD Average 1668 EIA Estimate EIA Est EIA Est Milo mil bu Milo mil bu 5 5 Milo gal/bu Milo gal/bu Milo mil gal Milo mil gal The EIA's PSM reports monthly in barrels per day, and does not make projections The EIA's STEO projects in barrels per day per month, Corn mil gal Corn mil gal and actual months do not always agree with PSM The USDA may adopt STEO gallons, convert sorghum bushels to gallons, then corn gallons to bushels, and then applies judgment. Corn gal/bu Corn gal/bu PRX projects annual production of fuel ethanol from STEO in mil gals, Corn mil bu Corn mil bu then removes sorghum ethanol to estimate corn required for ethanol production Adopt Adopt: Total mil gal Total mil gal PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 8

9 UNITED STATES Corn Supply-Demand, PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 Item Unit Crop Year Carry-in mil bu Area planted mil ac Area harvested mil ac Yield bu/ac Production mil bu Imports mil bu Supply mil bu Carry-out mil bu Disappearance (Use) mil bu Processing use mil bu of which, Fuel Eth mil bu bil gal Exports mil bu Feed/Residual Use mil bu Total Use mil bu Carry-out mil bu Carryout-to-Use Ratio pct 8.6% 7.9% 7.4% 9.2% 12.6% 12.7% 15.7% 14.7% 12.% Farm Price $/bu PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 9

10 Corn Farm Price vs. Carryout-to- Use Ratio Farm Price, cents per bushel 8 Farm Price Carryout-to-use 7 6 Carryout-to-use ratio, percent.% 4.% 8.% 5 12.% 4 16.% 3 2.% 2 24.% PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr % % Corn Carryout-to-Use & Farm Price Display Changing Relationship 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 1

11 UNITED STATES Corn Supply-Demand, PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 Item Unit Crop Year Carry-in mil bu Area planted mil ac Area harvested mil ac Yield bu/ac Production mil bu Supply mil bu Disappearance (Use) mil bu Feed/Residual Use mil bu Residual use mil bu Feed use in US mil bu Dairy mil bu Beef cattle mil bu Hogs mil bu Poultry mil bu Other mil bu Processing use mil bu Fuel ethanol by wet mill mil bu Fuel ethanol by dry mill mil bu Total fuel ethanol mil bu bil gal Total domestic use mil bu Foreign Exports mil bu Carry-out mil bu Note. DDG Disposition (na until 6-7), with ruminants 3% 1. feed value of corn; hogs poultry DDG production thou mt Corn displcd by DDG mil bu DDG fed to all animals thou mt DDG exports to foreign thou mt Corn displcd by DDG &CGF mil bu PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 11

12 Corn Net Exports (+) and Net Imports (-), Mil Bu Canada Corn Exports Rail & Truck Lakes Total Change -1-4 US Lakes Pacific NW Corn Exports Corn Exports Change Change Total Foreign 58 Corn Exports US Atlantic Corn Exports Change Change -3 Rail Mexico Corn Exports Change -22 All Gulf Corn Exports Total Mexico Current net export pattern depends on successful domestic use of DDG to displace whole corn according to PRX calculated formulas Change PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 12

13 Soybean Area Planted Change, vs. Previous Year Soybean Area Planted, Ac State Change IA KS MN MO ND NE SD WI WCB IL IN KY MI OH ECB NE SE SC West US For 218 US Soybean Area Planted is forecast to be down 116 thou acres. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 13

14 Bushels per acre US Soybean Yield & Trends, PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr Actual, or latest PRX PRX adopted trend, United States Forecast The soybean trend yield is increasing at about.5 bushels per acre per year. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 14

15 Soybean Production Change, vs. Previous Year Soybean Production, Mil Bu State Change IA KS MN MO ND NE SD WI WCB IL IN KY MI OH ECB NE SE SC West For 218 US Soybean Production is forecast to be down 189 mil bu. US PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 15

16 UNITED STATES Soybean Supply-Demand PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 Item Unit Crop year (Sep-Aug) Carry-in mil bu Area planted thou ac Area harvested thou ac Yield bu/ac Production mil bu Supply mil bu Disappearance (Use) mil bu Seed/Residual Use mil bu Crush mil bu Domestic Use mil bu Foreign Exports mil bu (Minus indicates exports from US) Foreign exports (-) up by 199 mil bu, crush up by 1 mil bu. Carry-out mil bu Farm Price, Sales weighted annual average US Farm Price cts/bu PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 16

17 UNITED STATES Soybean Meal Supply-Demand PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 Item Unit Crop year (Sep-Aug) Soybean crush mil bu Yield lbs/bu Soymeal production thou st Soymeal supply thou st Soymeal domestic use thou st Soymeal exports thou st Soymeal total use thou st Soymeal carry-out thou st HPCAUs mil Soymeal fed per HPCAU st Avg price, Decatur, actl $/st Avg price, Decatur, model $/st Protein fed, total thou st of which, Dairy thou st Beef cattle thou st Hogs thou st Poultry thou st Other thou st Non-soy olsd meal fed thou st Animal protein fed thou st Gluten feed & meal fed thou st Soymeal fed thou st Soymeal production thou st Net Soymeal exports thou st PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 17

18 UNITED STATES Soybean Oil Supply-Demand PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 Item Unit Crop year (Sep-Aug) Soybean crush mil bu Yield lbs/bu Soyoil production mil lbs Soyoil supply mil lbs Soyoil domestic use mil lbs Soyoil net exports mil lbs Soyoil total use mil lbs Soyoil carry-out mil lbs US population mil Domestic SBO per cap lbs Avg price, Decatur, actl cents/lb Avg price, Decatur, model cents/lb Estimated domestic: Soyoil food use mil lbs Soyoil industrial use mil lbs Biodiesel mil gals Estimated crush margin (Central IL): Soyoil price cents/bu Soyoil yield per bu lbs/bu Soyoil value per bu cents/bu Soymeal price, Decatur $/st Soymeal yield per bu lbs/bu Soymeal value per bu cents/bu Soybean price, Decatur cents/bu Oil & meal value per bu cents/bu Crush margin proxy* cents/bu * Crush margin proxy does not include local elevation and transportation costs to the processor and should be adjusted for local costs. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 18

19 Soybean Net Exports (+) and Net Imports (-), Mil Bu PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 Pacific NW US Lakes Soybean Exports Soybean Exports Change 42 Change US Atlantic Rail Mexico Soybean Exports 4 27 Soybean Exports Change 8 Change All Gulf Soybean Exports Total Mexico Change 99 6 Current net export pattern depends on other oilseed meals and proteins PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 19

20 Wheat Area Planted Change, vs. Previous Year Wheat Area Planted, Ac State Change IA KS MN MO ND NE SD WI WCB IL IN KY MI OH ECB NE SE SC CO MT West US For 218 US Wheat Area Planted is forecast to be up 1327 thou acres. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 2

21 Bushels per acre 6 US Wheat Yield & Trends, PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr Actual, or latest PRX PRX adopted trend, United States Forecast The long-term trend wheat yield shows a gain of about.4 bushels/acre. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 21

22 Wheat Production Change, vs. Previous Year Wheat Production, Mil Bu State Change IA 1 KS MN MO ND NE SD WI WCB IL IN KY MI OH ECB NE SE SC CO MT West US For 218 US Wheat Production is forecast to be up 85 mil bu. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 22

23 UNITED STATES All Wheat Supply-Demand, 8-9 to PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 Item Unit Crop year (Jun-May) Carry-in mil bu Area planted thou ac Area harvested thou ac Yield bu/ac Production mil bu Imports mil bu Supply mil bu Disappearance (Use) mil bu Feed/Residual Use mil bu Processing in state mil bu Domestic Use mil bu Foreign Exports mil bu (Minus indicates exports from US) New crop exports (-) up by 5 mil bu. Carry-out mil bu Farm Price, Sales weighted annual average US Farm Price cts/bu PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 23

24 UNITED STATES Sorghum Supply-Demand, 8-9 to Master Blue Sky Forecast, SDU, Apr-1-18 Item Unit Crop year (Sep-Aug) Carry-in mil bu Area planted thou ac Area harvested thou ac Yield bu/ac Production mil bu Supply mil bu Disappearance (Use) mil bu Feed/Residual Use mil bu Industrial Use mil bu Total Use mil bu Foreign Exports mil bu Carry-out mil bu US Farm Price cts/bu As share of corn pct 79% 91% 97% 96% 92% 96% 19% 92% 83% 96% 96% 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 24

25 Forecast Comparison: USDA versus PRX, OLD CROP PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat Item PRX USDA PRX USDA PRX USDA Unit Carry-in mil bu Area planted thou ac Area harvested thou ac Yield bu/ac Production mil bu Imports mil bu Supply mil bu Feed/Residual Use mil bu Industrial Use mil bu of which, corn ethanol mil bu Total Domestic Use mil bu Foreign Exports mil bu Total Use mil bu Carry-out mil bu US Farm Price cts/bu PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 25

26 Forecast Comparison: USDA versus PRX, NEW CROP PRX_Overview, SDU, Apr-1-18 US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat Item PRX USDA PRX USDA PRX USDA Unit Carry-in mil bu 2172 NA 584 NA 171 NA Area planted thou ac 8826 NA NA NA Area harvested thou ac 8857 NA NA NA Yield bu/ac 173. NA 47.6 NA 46.9 NA Production mil bu NA 422 NA 1826 NA Imports mil bu 5 NA 25 NA 125 NA Supply mil bu 1628 NA 4811 NA 322 NA Feed/Residual Use mil bu 547 NA 148 NA 18 NA Industrial Use mil bu 71 NA 197 NA 955 NA of which, corn ethanol mil bu 5613 NA Total Domestic Use mil bu 1257 NA 2118 NA 1135 NA Foreign Exports mil bu 2 NA 2225 NA 975 NA Total Use mil bu NA 4343 NA 211 NA Carry-out mil bu 1732 NA 468 NA 912 NA US Farm Price cts/bu 34 NA 95 NA 5 NA USDA WAOB estimates for 18/19 marketing year won't be available until May. 218 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 26

27 World Corn, Supply-Demand (USDA WASDE) W_World_wjh.xls, SDU, Apr-1-18 Crop Beg. Pro- Im- Sup- Ex- Feed Food & Total End Stocks Year* Stocks duction ports ply ports Use Ind. Use Use Stocks to Use mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt ratio Change from previous year % 8.1% -4.5% 1.% -14.3% *Aggregate of local marketing years. China stocks and use data before 1985 not revised by USDA..8 Corn Stocks to Use Ratios World.6 US.4 World corn stocks to use ratio down in PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 27

28 World Soybean, Supply-Demand (USDA WASDE) W_World_wjh.xls, SDU, Apr-1-18 Crop Beg. Pro- Im- Sup- Ex- Crush Food & Total End Stocks Year* Stocks duction ports ply ports Use Ind. Use Use Stocks to Use mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt ratio Change from previous year % 5.1% 2.% 3.8% -6.1% *Aggregate of local marketing years, except Argentina and Brazil adjusted to Oct-Sep..5 Soybean Stocks to Use Ratios.4 World US Brazil + Argentina.3.2 World soybean stocks to use ratio down in PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 28

29 World Wheat, Supply-Demand (USDA WASDE) W_World_wjh.xls, SDU, Apr-1-18 Crop Beg. Pro- Im- Sup- Ex- Feed Food & Total End Stocks Year* Stocks duction ports ply ports Use Ind. Use Use Stocks to Use mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt ratio Change from previous year % 1.5% -.7%.6% 6.5% *Aggregate of local marketing years. China stocks and use data before 1985 not revised by USDA. 1.2 Wheat Stocks to Use Ratios World US China World wheat stocks to use ratio up in PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement. Page 29