World Distribution of the Gypsy Moth, Lymantria dispar
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1 World Distribution of the Gypsy Moth, Lymantria dispar
2 Lymantria: dispar: Entomological etymology Gypsy Moth (USA) Zig-zag o Lagarta peluda (Spain) (hairy lizard) Eruga peluda del suro (Catalunia( Catalunia) (hairy caterpillar of cork) Der Schwammspinner (Germany) (the silk spinner) le Bombyx disparate (France) (the disparate silkmoth) Mníška vel kohlava (Slovakia) (nun with big head) mai-mai-ga (Japan) (dancing moth) euh-dea-euh (China) (dancing poison moth)
3 Permanent Range Three Phases of Biological Invasions: Pathways Arrival Population Growth movement Establishment Population Growth Spread Permanent Range
4 Boston, Massachusetts, 1868 Arrival Establishment Spread
5 Étienne Léopold Trouvelot,
6 Eradication is attempted
7 Gypsy Moth Distribution in Massachusetts, 1900 Arrival Establishment Spread
8 Spread of the Gypsy Moth in North America Arrival Establishment Spread
9 Location Percent Basal of forests Area susceptible Preferred by to the the Gypsy gypsy Moth moth Current range
10
11 Estimated historical spread rates Estimate of V (spread rate) Interval Subset No. of Counties (km / yr) all ± all ± temperature < ± temperature > ± 0.33
12 Skellam,, n t = D n x n 2 y + n x,t = population density at point x, time t D = diffusion coefficient r = intrinsic rate of increase rn density (n) distance (x) time v = 2 rd v = radial rate of spread
13 Independent Estimate of Velocity of Expansion of the Infested Front (V) V = 2 r D = = 2.47 km/year
14 Estimated historical spread rates Estimate of V (spread rate) Interval Subset No. of Counties (km / yr) all ± all ± temperature < ± temperature > ± 0.33
15 Defoliation Leading Edge Generally Infested Area Isolated Infestation
16 Stratified Dispersal (Hengeveld( 1989) Two forms of dispersal: short distance, continuous long distance, stochastic Population growth
17 Gypsy Moth Dispersal Short Distance: windborne movement of 1 st instars Long Distance: accidental movement of life stages by humans
18 Moth counts are color-coded Pheromone traps in Virginia, West Virginia and North Carolina in 1995
19 Male moths/trap: >300 Gypsy Moth Counts in Pheromone Traps in 1995
20 Colony initiation declines linearly with distance from the population front Number of new colonies per sq. km Moths/trap Distance from the population front (km)
21 Gypsy Moth Detection Survey Results, 1993
22 Major Gypsy Moth Pathways Logs (timber, fuel wood) Motor Vehicles (Recreational Vehicles, autos, trucks) Motor Freight Cargo (especially household moving objects) Nursery stock
23 Gypsy moth defoliation Defoliation (acres) Year 1991 defoliation Pennsylvania West Virginia
24 During outbreak years defoliation can be extensive
25 Gypsy Moths Prefer to Oviposit in Cryptic Locations
26 Many human-made made objects make excellent oviposition sites
27
28 16 border inspection stations 33,500,00 vehicles monitored per year 24,500,000 automobiles 6,500,000 commercial trucks 706,000 recreational vehicles 40,000 commercial buses 70 thousand lots of quarantined plant material intercepted per year 1,382 gypsy moth interceptions
29 California Gypsy Moth Interceptions by Vehicle Type Truck Other Automobile Trailer, Utility, Self Movers Camper, Recreational Vehicle
30 time series of gypsy moth interceptions at California border inspection stations and defoliation in the northeastern USA ,000, Interceptions 12,000,000 Interceptions Defoliation 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Defoliation (acres) Year
31 Interceptions are correlated with lag defoliation Defoliation t-2 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 y = 13557x R 2 = Interceptions t
32 Michigan Defoliation (acres) Interceptions Calif. interceptions by state of origin Year Defoliation in Michigan Year unknown CT MA MD ME MI NH NJ NY PA VA VT RI other
33 California interceptions by state of origin MD ME others VA NY MI IN OH VT NH NY PA WV VA ME MA CT NJ MD CT NH PA NJ MA MI
34 Total Number of interceptions in each state ( ) is related to the total amount of defoliation in the state ( ) Defoliation y = 68419x R 2 = Interceptions
35 Conclusions Spread of gypsy moth in N. America is primarily driven by accidental movement of life stages Automobiles are an important cause of accidental movement The frequency and origin of these regulatory incidents are closely related to the spatial and temporal distribution of gypsy moth outbreaks in the Northeastern US
36 Time series of yearly area eradicated and yearly area defoliated over entire USA Peaks in Eradication Frequency lag Peaks in Defoliation by ca 6-7 Years Area of Eradication Projects (ac) Eradication Defoliation Year Defoliation (ac)
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