Global Forest GHG Emissions and FLR CO2 Removals Databases

Transcription

1 Global Forest GHG Emissions and FLR CO2 Removals Databases Winrock International (WI) and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) June 2017 Project Number P02004 / Award Number AVUS-00065

2 Project Description Comprehensive global analysis of emissions and removals from land use change Two databases: 1. Emissions: deforestation & three forest degradation activities 2. Removals: potential removals from four Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) activities Emissions and removals offered at both national and subnational (state/province) levels

3 Project Description Offers consistent, comparable global estimates of emissions from key REDD+ activities Applied scientifically robust methods and data (generally consistent with IPCC Tier 2 approach): Global, spatially explicit datasets Published, peer-reviewed literature Nationally reported data Consistent with methods and data applied in Pearson et al. (2017) Greenhouse gas emissions from tropical forest degradation: an underestimated source. Carbon Balance and Management 12:3 DOI: /s

4 Emissions Database Deforestation Degradation Logging (legal) Woodfuel collection Fire

5 Emissions Database - Methods Area of forest loss Non-Annex 1 Countries: Satellite imagery (Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI) Annex 1 Countries: National greenhouse gas inventory reports Carbon stocks in forests Tropics: Saatchi et al. (2011) pantropical map Other: Avitabile et al. (2016) global map Emissions from deforestation

6 Emissions Database - Methods Selective Logging Pearson et al Methodology -- national data on harvest volume combined with values for logging emission factors Woodfuel Collection Woodfuel Integrated Supply/Demand Mapping (WISDOM) model using national and global datasets Fire Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) (applies MODIS satellite imagery)

7 Emissions Database - Results Global emissions (Mt CO 2 e yr -1 )

8 Results - Emissions Overall, deforestation emissions are the highest, followed by logging, woodfuel, and fire. Indonesia and Brazil had highest total emissions by far. Developing countries had higher (land use change) emissions than developed ones.

9 Results Regional Patterns in Emissions Woodfuel proportionately more significant in Africa Logging proportionately more significant in Americas Highest total deforestation emissions in Asia

10 Results Emissions from Forest Degradation Significance of degradation activities varies widely. Forest degradation emissions in the top 15 degradation emitting countries. Size of the bubble is proportional to emissions for each activity, and color represents regions/continents (Asia = red, LAC = green, Africa = purple, Europe = blue).

11 Results - Emissions Country size not necessarily correlated with magnitude of emissions. Total forest emissions (t CO 2 e yr -1 ) from the 15 countries with highest emissions. The size of the bubble is proportional to the country area, and color represents region/continent. (Asia = red, LAC = green, Africa = purple, Europe = blue).

12 Removals Database FLR Types Land use General category of FLR option Description Planting of trees on formerly forested land. Native species or exotics and for various Planted forests and woodlots purposes, fuel- wood, timber, building, poles, fruit production, etc. Forest land Land where forest is, or is planned to become, the dominant land use Agricultural land Land which is being managed to produce food Natural regeneration Agroforestry Natural regeneration of formerly forested land. Often the site is highly degraded and no longer able to fulfill its past function e.g. agriculture. If the site is heavily degraded and no longer has seed sources, some planting will probably be required. Establishment and management of trees on active agricultural land (under shifting agriculture), either through planting or regeneration, to improve crop productivity, provide dry season fodder, increase soil fertility, enhance water retention, etc. Protective land and buffers Land that is vulnerable to, or critical in safeguarding against, catastrophic events Mangrove restoration Establishment or enhancement of mangroves along coastal areas and in estuaries.

13 Removals Database CO 2 removals developed through a highly comprehensive review of literature on tree growth Growth curves built by collating data points from over 144 studies on forest restoration and tree growth For most FLR types, growth rates were simplified to <20 year and >20 year averages for database

14 Removals Database - Methods 2. Apply data to Chapman Richards Growth Model 1. Collect data from published and unpublished studies on tree growth by FLR type 3. Derive estimates of potential removals by FLR type

15 Results - Removals PLANTATIONS

16 Results - Removals NATURAL REGENERATION

17 Removals - Results AGROFORESTRY (t CO 2 e ha -1 yr -1 ) MANGROVES (t CO 2 e ha -1 yr -1 )

18 Removals - Results Potential removals over 20 years if commitments are met. Indonesia, Nigeria, and India stand out as having the greatest potential removals based on their large commitments.

19 Removals - Results Bonn Challenge and FLR Commitment compared to total emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (bubble size).

20 THANK YOU /company/winrock-international winrock_international