Wednesday, 25 June Young Bum Lee, Ph.D. (Konkuk Univ., Korea)

Transcription

1 Wednesday, 25 June 2014 Young Bum Lee, Ph.D. (Konkuk Univ., Korea) This presentation is a part of an ongoing project on the e-government for promoting sustainable development in SIDS under the supervision of UNPOG. Do not cite without the permission of the author and/or UNPOG.

2 Table of Contents I II III IV V Research Framework Statistical Analysis Comparative Analysis Implications for SIDS Country Profile (Annex)

3 I Research Framework

4 Research Question & Strategy Research Question Does e-gov t have empirically positive effects on the good governance and sustainable development of SIDS? If yes, what makes the differences in the good governance, sustainable development, and e-gov t in SIDS? Research Strategy Statistical analysis: regression analysis, mediation effect analysis Comparative analysis: comparison by success factors among SIDS

5 Research Framework E-Government Development ICT Infrastructure (1) Ability to use E-Gov t (1) E-Service (1) Economic, Social, & Environmental Development Economic Development (2) Social Development (5) E-Participation (1) Environmental Development (2) E-Natural Environment (1) Good Governance Transparency (1) Democracy (1) Government Capability (2) ( ): Number of Factors

6 Measures on E-Government Development Areas Factors Variables / Conceptual Definition Data Sources Internet users (%) ICT Infrastructure Telecommunication Infrastructure Main fixed phone lines (%) Mobile subscribers (%) Fixed Internet subscriptions (%) UN E-Gov t Survey (based on ITU s IDI) Fixed broadband subscriptions (%) Ability to use E-Gov t Human Capital Index Adult Literacy (%) Primary, secondary, tertiary Gross Enrollment (%) UN E-Gov t Survey (based on UNDP s HDR) E-Public Service Online Service Index National website s services level (e.g. gov t portal, ministries websites) UN E-Gov t Survey E-Democracy E-Participation Index E-Information, E-Consultation, E-Decision making UN E-Gov t Survey Dissemination of information E-Natural Environment Policy Environment Index Institutional integration with respect to environmental matters Opportunities for citizen engagement on UN E-Gov t Survey environmental issues

7 Measures on Good Governance Areas Factors Conceptual Definition Data Sources The extent to which public power is exercised Transparency Control of Corruption for private gain, including both petty and grand forms of corruption Capture of the state by elites & private interests Democracy Voice and Accountability The extent to which a country's citizens are able to participate in selecting their gov t Freedom of expression, association, and a free media World Bank s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) Quality of public services combined from Government Capability Government Effectiveness Quality of civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures Quality of policy formulation and implementation Credibility of the gov t's commitment to policies several sources including EIU, IMD, ADB, Freedom House, and so on Regulatory Quality The ability of the gov t to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that promote private sector development

8 Measures on Economic & Social Development Areas Factors Variables / Conceptual Definition Data Sources Economic Development GDP per capita GDP Growth Rate GDP / population [GDP(t) - GDP(t-1)]/ GDP(t-1) 100 World Bank The extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society World Bank s Worldwide Rule of Law Quality of contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts Governance Indicators(WGI) combined from Likelihood of crime and violence several sources including Social Development Political Stability & Absence of Violence/Terrorism Under-five Mortality Unlikelihood that the gov t will be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means, including politically-motivated violence & terrorism Under-five mortality (per 1,000 live births) EIU, IMD, ADB, Freedom House, and so on UNDP s Health Index Life expectancy at birth Human Development Inequality in achievements b/w women and men Index (HDI 2013) Gender Inequality in three dimensions: reproductive health, empowerment & the labor market (data deficiency)

9 Measures on Environmental Development Factors Sub Factors Variables / Conceptual Definition Data Sources Water Resources Wastewater Treatment Level Agricultural Subsidies Agriculture Pesticide Regulation Forests Change in forest cover Yale Univ. & Fisheries Coastal Shelf Fishing Pressure Fish Stocks Columbia Univ. s Environmental Performance Index (EPI) Ecosystem Vitality Terrestrial protected areas (national biome weights) combined from several sources Biodiversity & Habitat Terrestrial protected areas (global biome weights) Marine Protected Areas Including WHO, UNICEF, World Bank, UNEP, IEA, FAO, Critical Habitat Protection (%) and so on Trend in Carbon Intensity Climate & Energy Change of Trend in Carbon Intensity Trend in CO2 Emissions per KWH

10 Measures on Environmental Development Factors Sub Factors Variables / Conceptual Definition Data Sources Public infrastructure - population without access to drinking water(a) & sanitation (b) (%) Nutrition c. undernourished population (%) Susceptibility Poverty and dependencies d. dependency ratio / e. extreme poverty population (%) Economic capacity & income distribution Vulnerability to Natural Disaster Coping capacities f. GDP per capita / g. Gini Index Government & authorities a. corruption perception index b. good governance (failed states index) Medical services - Number of physicians (c) and hospital (d) per 10,000 inhabitants Material coverage e. insurances (life insurance excluded) UN Univ. s World Risk Report combined from several sources Education & Research - a. adult literacy (%) Including b. combined gross school enrollment (%) UNDP, TI, Gender equity c. gender parity in education (%) World Bank, and so on Adaptive capacities d. female representatives in the national parliament (%) Environmental status & ecosystem protection e. water resources / f. biodiversity & habitat protection g. forest management / h. agricultural management Investment i. public health expenditure / j. life expectancy at birth k. private health expenditure

11 II Statistical Analysis

12 1. Regression Analysis Result Effects of E-Gov't development on Good governance Index Control of corruption Voice & accountability Gov t effectiveness Regulatory quality Model 1 EGDI *** *** *** HCI Model 2 ISI *** *** ** OSI * *** *** Model 3 EPI *** *** *** * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, ***p<0.01

13 1. Regression Analysis Result Effects of E-Gov't development on Good governance For the model 2, we divided EGDI into the three components to specify which component has an influence on the good governance indicators. Due to the multicollinearity between EPI and OSI, we analyzed the effects of EPI in a different model. In general, the e-gov t development indices have positive influences on the good governance except the voice & accountability. Human capital index is not found to have any significant impact on the good governance indicators.

14 1. Regression Analysis Result Effects of Good governance on Economic, Social, & Environmental dev t Index Control of corruption Voice & accountability Gov t effectiveness Regulatory quality GDP per capita Rule of law Political Stability & Absence of Violence/Terrorism Underfive Mortality Health index Ecosystem vitality Vulnerability to natural disaster *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** ** ** * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, ***p<0.01

15 1. Regression Analysis Result Effects of Good governance on Economic, Social, & Environmental dev t Overall, the good governance indicators are found to have significant impacts on the economic, social, environmental development indices. In particular, the gov t effectiveness is shown to affect all the economic, social, environmental development. Even though regulatory quality does not seem to have less impacts on the economic, social, and environmental development, it is not easy to confirm such results due to the multicollinearity between the gov t effectiveness and the regulatory quality (correlation coefficient: 0.9 *** ). - Moreover, regulatory quality is shown to have a statistically significant & positive effect on the economic, social, and environmental development indicators except for the stability & absence of violence/terrorism if the gov t effectiveness is excluded from the model.

16 1. Regression Analysis Result Effects of E-Gov't development on Economic, Social, & Environmental dev t Index GDP per capita Rule of law Political Stability & Absence of Violence/Terrorism Underfive mortality Health index Ecosystem vitality Vulnerability to natural disaster Model 1 EGDI *** *** *** *** *** HCI ** *** Model 2 ISI *** *** *** *** OSI ** ** Model 3 EPI *** *** * *** *** Model 4 EI *** - * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, ***p<0.01

17 1. Regression Analysis Result Effects of E-Gov't development on Economic, Social, & Environmental dev t The increase in the ICT infrastructure and e-participation level as well as EGDI can leads to economic growth. E-gov t development tends to affect more health-related social development than law-related social development and social stability. As we guessed on the basis of the low relationship between the e-gov t development and the political stability & absence of violence/terrorism, their causal relationship is not statistically significant. None of the traditional e-gov t development indices has a significant effect on the ecosystem vitality. However, the environment index of the E-Gov t Survey 2012 is shown to have a positive effect on the ecosystem vitality. - This result implies that the development of e-gov t in a specific area is more effective in improving the corresponding governmental function and achieving its ultimate performances outside the gov t than the overall e-gov t development.

18 2. Mediation Analysis Result Mediation effects of Good governance on Economic, Social, & Environmental development Index GDP per capita Rule of law Political Stability & Absence of Violence/Terrorism Underfive mortality Health index Ecosystem vitality Vulnerability to natural disaster HCI ISI Gov t eff - - OSI CoC Gov t eff RQ EPI - CoC Gov t eff RQ CoC Gov t eff RQ Underlined & bold: Full mediation effect - Gov t eff RQ CoC Gov t eff RQ CoC Gov t eff RQ CoC Gov t eff RQ - CoC Gov t eff Gov t eff

19 2. Mediation Analysis Result Mediation effects of Good governance on Economic, Social, & Environmental development The result shows 11 partial mediation effects and 13 full mediation effects - Based on the mediation analysis Baron & Kenny (1986) suggested Three good governance indicators (control of corruption, gov t effectiveness, and regulatory quality) are founded to mediate between the e-gov t development indices except for HCI and some economic, social, and environmental indicators (GDP per capita, rule of law, under-five mortality, health index, and the vulnerability to natural disaster). In general, the mediator variables fully mediate between OSI and the dependent variables while they partially mediate between ISI and the dependent variables. - There are both full and partial mediation effects between EPI and the dependent variables.

20 2. Mediation Analysis Result Mediation effects of Good governance on Economic, Social, & Environmental development Since HCI is not shown to have a statistically significant influence on the dependent variables, there cannot be any mediator variable between HCI and the dependent variables. As the political stability & absence of violence/terrorism and the ecosystem vitality are not affected by any independent variables, there is no mediation effect between a good governance indicator and the two dependent variables. Among the tentative four mediator variables, the voice & accountability does not mediate between any independent variable and a dependent variable because none of the e-gov t development indices affects it.

21 III Comparative Analysis

22 1. Sub-grouping of SIDS Scatter plot of EGDI and GDP per capita in ,000 35,000 y = e 6.671x R² = ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Group A 10,000 5,000 Group C Group B The 22 SIDS can be classified into three groups apart from two outliers (Singapore and Bahrain)

23 Group Country EGDI CoC V&A Gov Eff RQ Outliers Group A 1. Sub-grouping of SIDS GDP_ capita RoL PS&AVT UFM HI EV Vul No. of good Performance Singapore , Bahrain , Seychelles , Mauritius , Maldives , Fiji , Tonga , Palau , Samoa* , Cape Verde , Micronesia , Tuvalu* , Vanuatu* , Group Sao Tome & Principe* B Nauru Marshall Islands , Kiribati* , Solomon Islands* , Timor-Leste* Group Comoros* C Papua New Guinea , Guinea- Bissau* Average ,

24 1. Sub-grouping of SIDS Scatter plot of EGDI and the number of good performances in Group A (6.6) y = x R² = Group B (3.4) 4 2 Group C (0.6) The three group show distinguished performances not only in economic area but also in social and environmental areas.

25 2. Comparison between the Groups Standards for the comparison According to Lee (2012) and Ming, Awan, and Somani (2013), there are commonly mentioned major success factor and component of e-government development plan. Source: Lee (2012)

26 2. Comparison between the Groups Standards for the comparison Source: Ming, Awan, and Somani (2013)

27 2. Comparison between the Groups Key success factors This report adopts the following standards for the comparison based on the reports of Lee (2012) and Ming, Awan, and Somani (2013), 1) Existence of national e-gov t strategy 2) Linkage between gov t reform & e-gov t 3) Political commitment 4) Legal framework for ICT and e-government development 5) Coordination of the organizations in charge of ICT and e-government 6) Financial feasibility 7) E-awareness policy for public employees, citizens, and students

28 2. Comparison between the Groups What makes the differences of the three groups? Criteria Group A Group B Group C Existence of nat'l e-gov t strategy O X Linkage b/w gov t reform & e-gov t O X X Political commitment O X Legal framework O X Coordination of organizations O X Financial feasibility X E-awareness policy for Public servants O X Citizens X X Students X The three groups show differences in terms of national e-gov t policy and strategy.

29 IV Implications for SIDS

30 Implications for SIDS ICT and e-gov t development can raise the level of economic, social, and environmental development directly and via good governance. This report strongly recommends SIDS to actively pursue e-gov t development policy and strategy, considering the seven success factors. - National e-gov t strategy - Linkage between gov t reform & e-gov t - Political commitment - Legal framework for ICT and e-government development - Coordination of the organizations in charge of ICT and e-government - Financial feasibility - E-awareness policy for public employees, citizens, and students

31 Implications for SIDS Especially for SIDS, international partnership and cooperation are crucial in developing the e-gov t and addressing the challenges regarding sustainable development. Overcome the lack of human & financial resources, and the experiences of huge projects, the features of many SIDS. The tangible and intangible supports from international organizations (UN, ADB, OECD), and various ODA programs from individual developed countries will be very helpful to SDIS.

32 V Country Profile

33 American Samoa Region UN member Population Surface area GDP (current $) Language Religion Pacific X / LDC X 68,061 (July 2012 CIA est.) 199 km million (2005) Cantonese 4.1%, Teochew 3.2%, Malay (official) 1.2% Buddhist 33.9%, Muslim 14.3%, Taoist 11.3%, Catholic 7.1%, Hindu 5.2% 1. E-government 1.1 EGDI ICT Infrastructure Human Capital Online Service E-Participation Good Governance 2.1 Control of Corruption Voice & Accountability Gov t Effectiveness Regulatory Quality.. 3. Economic Development 3.1 GDP per capita... VALUE ,000 (2007 est.) RANK 68/210 38/212 67/210 81/ Social Development 4.1 Rule of Law Political Stability & Absence of Violence/Terrorism Gender Inequality Under-five mortality Health Index Environmental Development 5.1 Ecosystem Vitality Water Resources Agriculture Forests Fisheries Biodiversity & Habitat Climate & Energy... VALUE RANK 31/212 43/212 Sources: E-gov t survey 2012 (UN), WGI 2013 (World Bank), HDI 2013 (UNDP), EPI 2014 (Yale Univ. & Columbia Univ.)

34 Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Region UN member Population Surface area GDP (current $) Language Religion Pacific X / LDC X 44,582 (July 2012 CIA est.) 477 km million (2010 est.) Philippine languages 32.8%, Chamorro (official) 24.1%, English (official) 17%, other Pacific island languages 10% Christian 1. E-government 1.1 EGDI ICT Infrastructure Human Capital Online Service E-Participation Good Governance 2.1 Control of Corruption Voice & Accountability Gov t Effectiveness Regulatory Quality.. 3. Economic Development 3.1 GDP per capita... VALUE 13,600 (2010 est.) RANK 4. Social Development 4.1 Rule of Law Political Stability & Absence of Violence/Terrorism Gender Inequality Under-five mortality Health Index Environmental Development 5.1 Ecosystem Vitality Water Resources Agriculture Forests Fisheries Biodiversity & Habitat Climate & Energy... VALUE RANK Sources: E-gov t survey 2012 (UN), WGI 2013 (World Bank), HDI 2013 (UNDP), EPI 2014 (Yale Univ. & Columbia Univ.)