Human development in the Antrhopocene

Transcription

1 Human development in the Antrhopocene Världens Eko 13th September 2011 Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm Environment Institute

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3 The sense of urgency and our Sisyphusian dilemma The need for a new framework for human development in the Anthropocene Key challenges for Rio 2012

4 Growing Human Pressure [20/80 dilemma] Climate change [560/450/400 dilemma] Ecosystem decline [60 % loss dilemma] Surprise [99/1 dilemma]

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6 Walker et al Science

7 Humanity has reached a planetary saturation point A resilient biosphere the basis for humen development It is not only about climate change A great transformation to global sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable

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9 (Meinsheuzen et al., in prep)

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11 Rio+20 and Planetary Boundaries UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon High Level Panel on Global Sustainability

12 Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

13 Northern hemisphere average surface temperature Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

14 Atmospheric N 2 O concentration Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22: IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

15 Atmospheric CH 4 concentration Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

16 Ozone depletion JD Shanklin British Antarctic Survey IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

17 Natural climactic disasters IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

18 Ocean ecosystems FAOSTAT 2002 Statistical database IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

19 Coastal zone nitrogen flux Mackenzie et al IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

20 Tropical rainforest and woodland loss Richards, the Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge University Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

21 Domesticated land Klein Goldewijk and Batties IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

22 Species extinctions Wilson, the Diversity of Life. IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

23 the great CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4 acceleration concentrations of the human entreprise, Overfishing Professor Will Steffen Land degradation Loss Biodiversity The Planetary.. Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene

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25 CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4 concentrations Overfishing Land degradation Loss Biodiversity

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27 Critical transitions or regime shifts

28 Valuable Ecosystem Services Loss of ecosystem services (Desirable) (Undesirable) 1 4 coral dominance state shift algal dominance 2 3 clear water overfishing, coastal eutrophication disease, hurricane turbid water grassland phosphorous accumulation in soil and mud flooding, warming, overexploitation of predators shrub-bushland fire prevention good rains, continuous heavy grazing

29 Regime shifts in all systems Bothnian Bay (BB) Bothnian Bay (BS) BS BB Gulf of Finland (GF) GF Sub-system specific indices of ecosystem development (PC1 from PCA) Regimes identified using STARS on PC1s (red lines) Almost synchronous regime shifts in all subsystems The Sound (TS) A. Sorteberg, University of Bergen, GR Norway", data from Snow & Ice Data Center, Boulder CO, USA CBS Gulf of Riga (GR) TS Central Baltic (CBS) Torsten Bleckner et al., 2009

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32 Photo: CC Jason Auch / Azote

33 Photo: S Zeff / Azote

34 Tipping elements in the Earth system PNAS Special Feature released December 2009 PNAS Special Feature: Tipping elements in the Earth System, Jan 2010, vol 106 (49)

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36 The Resilience of the Earth System

37 (EPICA Dome C, Antarctica, Adapted from Lüthi et al. 2008)

38 Humanity s 10,000 years of grace

39 (Hansen and Sato, 2011)

40 Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene (Nature, 461 : , Sept )

41 From: Limits to growth Carrying capacity Guardrails Tipping Elements To: Planetary Boundaries

42 Two different types of planetary boundary processes 1. Critical continental to global threshold 2. No known global threshold effect

43 Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles Limit industrial fixation of N 2 to 35 Tg N yr -1 (25 % of natural fixation) (25%-35%) P < 10 natural weathering inflow to Oceans ( ) Climate Change < 350 ppm CO 2 < 1W m 2 ( ppm CO 2 ; Rate of Biodiversity Loss < 10 E/MSY (< 10 - < 1000 E/MSY) W m 2 ) Land System Change 15 % of land under crops (15-20%) Planetary Boundaries Ozone depletion < 5 % of Pre-Industrial 290 DU (5-10%) Atmospheric Aerosol Loading To be determined Chemical Pollution Plastics, Endocrine Desruptors, Nuclear Waste Emitted globally To be determined Ocean acidification Aragonite saturation ratio > 80 % above preindustrial levels (> 80% - > 70 %) Global Freshwater Use <4000 km 3 /yr ( km 3 /yr)

44 Latest data Atmospheric aerosol load? Ocean acidity? Freshwater consumption Ozone depletion? Chemical pollution Climate Change Agricultural land use Phosphorus flow? Pre- Ind. Nitrogen flow?? Biodiversity loss

45 Transgressing safe boundaries Global freshwater use Rockström et al Nature, 461 (24):

46 6th Global Mass Extinction of Species on Planet Earth

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48 Already Committed Global Warming (Ramanathan et al. 2009)

49 Climate Change what is required to avoid the crossing of critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate system states We suggest boundary values of 350 ppm CO 2 and 1 W m -2 above pre-industrial level

50 Source: NASA GISS data, Jan 2011

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52 Ocean acidification Challenge to marine biodiversity and ability of oceans to function as sink of CO 2 Turley et al 2006 Southern Ocean and Arctic ocean projected to become corrosive to aragonite by

53 Ocean acidification Setting the boundary: Globally surface aragonite saturation state is declining (Ω arag = 3.44 to a current value of 2.9) 2 CO 2 Ω arag = 2.29 Proposed boundary > 80 % preindustrial Ω arag = 2.75

54 From R. Buddemeier, based on Kleypas et al. 1999

55 Interactions among Planetary Boundaries Gt Carbon/yr land ocean atmosphere Resilience of the Earth system Adapted from Canadell et al., 2007

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57 Planetary Inter-connections Peter Snyder et al. 2004

58 Global emission pathways in compliance with a 2 ºC guardrail (WBGU 2009)

59 A new global spec for world food production 1. Stay within 350 ppm, an agricultural system that goes from being a source to a global sink 2. Essentially a green revolution on current cropland (expansion from 12 % to 15 %) 3. Keep global consumptive use of blue water < 4000 km 3 /yr, we are at 2,600 km 3 /yr today and rushing fast towards 4000 km 3 /yr 4. Reduce to 25 % of current N extraction from atmosphere 5. Not increase P inflow to oceans 6. Reduce loss of biodiversity to < 10 E/MSY from current E/MSY

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61 Global governance challenges of planetary boundaries the capacity of international institutions to deal with individual planetary boundaries, as well as interactions between them; the challenges posed by institutional interactions and inter-linkages; the role of international organizations in dealing with planetary boundaries interactions; the role of global governance in framing socialecological innovations Galaz et al. in review

62 A roadmap to attain the UN MDGs AND Sustainable Prosperity in the Anthropocene Planetary governance (absolute boundaries) for a safe future Address the triple subsidy of conventional economic growth Transformation and innovation pathways New principles for Human development for 9 billion people within planetary boundaries: - integration (biosphere, climate system,... - global scale collaboration in a saturated world all adds up - env econ development - Universal right to basic ecosystem services for human wellbeing