State of the global climate 2012 with reference to the past 20 years

Transcription

1 State of the global climate 2012 with reference to the past 20 years 2012

2 Further developed from the past 20 year UNEP report Keeping Track of Our Changing Environment From Rio to Rio+20 ( ) UNEP October 2011 With limited progress on environmental issues achieved, and few real success stories to be told, all components of the environment land, water, biodiversity, oceans and atmosphere continue to degrade.

3 Committed global climate disruption planetary emergency The evidence today from all aspects of global climate change is overwhelming and definite proof that the world is in a state of committed global climate change catastrophic impacts planetary emergency. It is a committed emergency because of today s absolutely committed global temperature increase because of climate system science is several times today s increase of 0.8 C.

4 If carbon dioxide equivalent concentrations were to be stabilized at some point in the future, there would be a lock-in to further warming of comparable magnitude to that already occurring at the time of stabilization. 1000s years Climate changes that occur because of carbon dioxide increases are expected to persist for thousands of years even of emissions were to be halted at any point in time. National Research Council, Climate Stabilization Targets, 2010

5 Global warming

6 Radiative forcing Global heating has been steadily increasing since 1992 The warming of the entire planet is best measured by the increasing radiating forcing of the increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases The surface temperature increase is only one indicator of the total heating. If methane s realistic global warming potential of 72 X CO2 s over 20 years were used instead of the 100 years deferred GWP of 22. the climb of global heating would be steeper.

7 A huge amount of heat goes to warming the ocean (95% of all industrial age GHG heat) and to melting ice. Total Earth Heat Content 1962 to 2008 (Church 2011)

8 IGBP s 2009 Climate Change Index combining several indicators of warming has been accelerating

9 RECORD MAY 2012 WARMING The Northern Hemisphere land and ocean average surface temperature for May 2012 was the all-time warmest May on record, at 0.85 C (1.53 F) above average. The globally-averaged land surface temperature for May 2012 was the all-time warmest May on record, at 1.21 C (2.18 F) above average. NOAA State of the Climate Global Analysis May 2012.

10 Global mean temperature increased by 0.4 C between 1992 and 2010 THIS IS 50% OF THE ENTIRE TEMPERATURE INCREASE SINCE PREINDUSTRIAL From Pre-industrial

11 Global average temperature anomaly past 20 years Warming is greater in the northern hemisphere and greatest in the Arctic NASA GISS to

12 Global average temperature anomaly past 10 years Warming is even greater in the northern hemisphere and Arctic WMO 2012

13 WMO 2012

14 Planetary land ice

15 Most mountain glaciers around the world are diminishing rapidly The well-being 1/6 of the world s population depend on placing ice and seasonal snow for their water resources

16 Accelerating loss of Greenland ice loss with record loss in Dr John Wahr University of Colorado GRACE satellite data

17 Antarctica is warming Reconstructed annual mean Antarctic temperature anomalies, January 1957 to December Warming of the Antarctic ice sheet surface Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Scott D. Rutherford, Michael E. Mann, Josefino C. Comiso & Drew T. Shindell Nature January 2008

18 The Arctic Arctic temperature

19 Far northern latitudes are seeing the most extreme changes in temperature

20 Accelerating Arctic warming since 1990 Arctic Global Antarctic Arctic monthly surface air temperature anomaly o N The thin blue line shows the monthly temperature anomaly, while the thicker red line shows the running 13 month average. Data source: HadCRUT3 temperature data.

21 Rapid Arctic warming Permafrost NCAR Recent weather in the Arctic and adjoining regions according to the University of Cologne on 14 June 2012 Surface air temperature is indicated by a colour scale where the 0 isotherm is found that is the limit between the blue and green colours. Each temperature contour interval represents 2 C

22 The annual minimum extent of Arctic sea ice continues its decline The loss of Arctic sea ice cooling albedo is amplifying the rate of Arctic warming Record rate of Arctic sea ice loss June 2012

23 The volume of Arctic sea ice continues to decline accelerating after 2007 The sea ice is thinning ever faster

24 Arctic summer sea ice has passed the tipping point 2007 was the Arctic summer sea ice tipping point (T. Lenton 2012). It is now fixed on the much steeper rate of decline, headed to an ice free summer Arctic. Sea ice volume anomaly

25 The effect of amplified Arctic warming by summer sea ice loss The Arctic summer sea ice is the air conditioner of the Northern hemisphere Loss of Arctic albedo is affecting the jet stream disrupting Northern hemisphere weather patterns. Global warming is increasing global drought, and loss of Arctic albedo is projected to increase N. hemisphere drought

26 The effect of amplified Arctic warming by summer sea ice loss Operant Arctic methane feedbacks at today s 0.8 C global warming Methane (72X CO2 s warming over 20 yrs) Feedback emissions increase rate of global warming Warming peat wetlands - adding to atmospheric methane Thawing permafrost (2X atmospheric carbon mostly as potential methane) Sea floor methane hydrate (up to 2X atmospheric carbon (N. Shakhova ) Methane (?microbial) leaking from cracks in the Arctic sea ice. (E. Kort 2012)

27 Methane is leaking from thinning of the Arctic cryo-cap Katey Walter-Anthony 202

28 Extreme weather

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30 Record setting regional heat affected the Northern hemisphere

31 Extreme events were reported at 2001 to 2010 Absolute country Maximus the temperature and 24 hours precipitation percentage of occurrence in the previous five decades- statistics refer to the period starting in 1961 to present WMO 2012

32 Unusual global extent of severe drought and unusual drought affecting the Northern hemisphere

33 UCL DEPARTMENT OF SPACE AND CLIMATE PHYSICS AON BENFIELD UCL HAZARD RESEARCH CENTRE Past 18 months

34 Global drought Global drought Dai UCAR 2010

35 Global carbon emissions

36 36% increase in global CO2 emissions over past 20 years CO2 emissions continue to rise due to the increasing use of fossil fuels

37 IEA 2011

38 This is the most carbon atmospheric polluting source of oil 11 June May 2011

39 Production of cement and steel is responsible for about 6% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (IEA 2010). Cement making is the third source of carbon dioxide after fossil fuels and deforestation

40 The number of passenger trips by airplane has doubled since 1992 This is the most greenhouse gas polluting mode of transport. The IPCC has estimated that aviation is responsible for around 3.5% of anthropogenic climate change.

41 Primary forest area decreased by 300 million ha since 1990, or an area larger than Argentina Tropical deforestation contributes up to 17% of global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (A. Baccini Nature 2012)..

42 The increase in atmospheric CO2 has been accelerating in recent years. The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2 in the Earth s atmosphere shows a steady mean increase from 357 ppmv (parts per million by volume) in 1992 to 389 ppmv in The increase in atmospheric CO2 is primarily attributed to the combustion of fossil fuel, gas flaring and cement production and has been accelerating in recent years (IPCC 2007).

43 Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations

44 NOAA atmospheric GHG concentrations 9 June 2012 CO2 Methane Nitrous oxide

45 Since the sudden large drop in Arctic sea ice of 2007 atmospheric methane, which had almost stabilised after 2000, showed a renewed, and now sustained strong increase - due to methane feedback emissions. R. Sussmann Atmos. Chem. Phys NOAA Atmospheric methane Mauna Loa 9 June ppb ppb 2007

46 NOAA Atmospheric methane Barrow Alaska 9 June ppb Arctic methane increase Due to feed back emissions from the warming surface of the planet.

47 Atmospheric greenhouse gas perspectives

48 Sustained ocean warming and sea level rise

49 The oceans

50 Oceans are becoming more acidic, with negative implications for corals and other marine life This is the highest rate of ocean acidification in the past 300 million years (B. Honisch Science 2012).

51 World energy consumption

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53 BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012 Coal reaches 30% Coal consumption grew 5.4 percent in 2011 and coal production grew by 6.1 percent, increasing coal s share of the global energy market to 30%. That growth in coal consumption was the primary driver of the record levels of global carbon dioxide emissions in 2011,

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