People and Thermokarsts in the Arctic:

Transcription

1 People and Thermokarsts in the Arctic: Human Dimensions of Permafrost Change Allison Woodward & Gary Kofinas University of Alaska Fairbanks Selawik, Alaska 2010

2 Webinar Topics Coupled social-ecological systems Background: Communities of the Arctic/Subarctic How arctic climate & permafrost change can affect humans Our project s methods & approach Spotlight: Implications of thawing permafrost in five Iñupiaq communities 2

3 Components, interactions, and controls 3

4 Ecosystem Services: The benefits people obtain from ecosystems Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

5 Close connections: Permafrost, ecology and culture Permafrost Continuous Ecoregions Indigenous Languages & Peoples Discontinuous Sporadic Source: Source: C. West, M. Wilson & J. Kerr Alaska s indigenous cultures have evolved as an integral part of their surrounding ecosystems. They are being affected by climate change. As permafrost and ecosystems change, what will happen to cultures? 5

6 6

7 Regime Shift / Tipping Points Resilience vs. Transformation 7

8 Communities of Alaska s Rural, hubs, urban Demographics Traditionally mobile Settlement Arctic & Subarctic Mixed subsistence-cash economy Subsistence is integral both to food security and cultural identity 8

9 Rural Alaska Population - Alaska Year Rural * Urban * Total , , , , , , , , , (latest estimates) 225, , ,473 9

10 Age Cohorts 80 to to to to to to to to 14 0 to 4 Alaska Native/American Indian Age Structure Yukon-Koyokuk Census Area Alaska 2000 Female s Demographics Percent of Families Below the Poverty Level in 1999: % 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Percent of total population, 2000 Source: US Census 2000 Source: U.S. Census, TM-P069 10

11 Traditional Mobility Indian Fish Camp, Yukon River (Stevens Village) c UAF : Athabascan summer camp, c UAF : 11

12 Communities & Settlement Nunamiut family, early 1900 century Indian Fish Camp, Yukon River (Stevens Village) c Selawik, Alaska

13 Subsistence: nutrition, culture, identity Wolfe et al

14 Discussion / Questions?

15 Implications of thawing permafrost for Ecosystems Ground stability Hydrology Transportation Infrastructure Food security Cultures Exacerbating other challenges 15

16 Alaskan Communities with Erosion Issues 178 of 392 communities 16

17 26 Priority Action Communities Viability threatened by erosion 17

18 Transportation From Larsen & Goldsmith,

19 Increased infrastructure costs From Larsen & Goldsmith,

20 Allison's Framework 20

21 Study methods & approach Study communities involved in our study Local knowledge Interviews & surveys Mapping Guided site visits Repeat photography Thaw-depth transects 21

22 Spatial mapping of local knowledge Tuŋġaum Anivai: The Devil s Birthplace USGS

23 Guided site visits 23

24 Repeat photography Selawik, 1980 Source: DCRA Community Database 2010 Selawik, 2010 A Woodward 24

25 Thaw depth sampling 25

26 Traditional ecological knowledge; indigenous knowledge; local knowledge Knowledge held by a culture group or society; local knowledge unique to a given place TEK a cumulative body of knowledge, practice and belief, evolving by adaptive processes and handed down through generations by cultural transmission A way of life and a way of knowing Distinction between knowledge as process vs. knowledge as the thing known 26

27 Discussion / Questions?

28 Implications of thawing permafrost in five Iñupiaq communities Point Hope Shishmaref Nuiqsut Selawik Anaktuvuk Pass 28

29 Anaktuvuk Pass Photo: Allison Woodward,

30 Uniquely rocky Anaktuvuk Pass, 1996 Source: DCRA Community Database 30

31 Itchalik - caribou skins over pole frame Nunamiut: People of the Land Photos: Donatas Brandišauskas, 2009 Nunamiut hunters watching caribou in the distance Caribou People Photos: Allison Woodward,

32 Major caribou migration corridor Autumn: southward to boreal forest Spring: northward from the forested interior to arctic tundra Toward the Boreal Forest Toward the Arctic Tundra 32

33 Ecosystem changes Plant range expansions Projected Treeline Expansion IPCC 4 th Assessment Report Herbivore range expansions Carnivore range expansions MacDonald G M J Exp Biol 2010;213:

34 Permafrost Fire Anaktuvuk River Burn > 250,000 acres of tundra burned Anaktuvuk River Regrowth ive-tundra-fire.aspx 34

35 Selawik September Photo: Allison Woodward

36 Ground subsidence, erosion, inundation 36

37 Transportation Airport maintenance Barge access 37

38 Selawik River Thaw Slump Implications to community: Stream morphology Travel / transportation Water quality Habitat Subsistence Source: Crosby & Olson, 2007 Crosby & Olsen,

39 Subsistence Traditional subsistence harvest of sheefish from the Selawik River Preparing salmon for drying c UAF : Selawik,

40 Shrubs & trees increasing Beaver invasion Ecosystem change Dams & lowered water levels impeding local river travel; concerns about fish migration Water quality affected: amber / tea color; concerns about giardia 40

41 Stay or relocate? 41

42 Shishmaref 42 Photo: Allison Woodward

43 Coastal erosion 12:37 2:32 Shishmaref: October 8, 2002 Photos: T. Weyiouanna Reduced extent & delay in fall sea ice formation Thawing permafrost Increasing open water Stronger wind generated waves Reduced ground stability Increased coastal erosion 43

44 Undercut permafrost 44

45 Relocation? 45

46 Shishmaref Possible relocation areas Source: Karl et al, 2009 (USGCRP Report) 46

47 Point Hope 47

48 Ice Cellars Source: Brubaker et al Climate Change Effect on Traditional Inupiaq Food Cellars 48

49 Nuiqsut 49

50 Exacerbating existing challenges Remoteness High costs Low quality market foods Access to subsistence lands & resources (Anaktuvuk Pass) (Shishmaref, 2008) 50

51 Land Rights & Access 51

52 Discussion / Questions?