Systemic innovation. Why, what, how. Elsbeth Roelofs March, 4, 2014

Transcription

1 Systemic innovation Why, what, how Elsbeth Roelofs March, 4, 2014

2 Set up presentation Why? Why systemic innovation is needed? What? Definition systemic innovation and transitions Multi level model How? Methods for analysing, influencing systemic innovation

3 Why?

4 The sustainability problem Earth s Natural system Resources Society s Economic system Emissions and waste Footprint > 1 Earth We deplete water, mineral & energy stocks We use 35 % of biomass production We have depleted fish stocks GHG => 4-6 o C temperature rise Environmental consequences of traffic, industry and other activities

5 50% of the people lives in cities (UN, 2006) and this will be 70% by the global population increases the living standard globally increases

6 Translation to societal needs at city level Mobility: congestion, environmental and air quality problems due to traffic emissions Energy: energy security, energy consumption per capita keeps rising, emissions from energy production increase Food and water: higher food demand, less people to produce food, too much water, Scarcity of water of good quality Housing: less space for more people

7 Decoupling of economic growth and environmental impact Environmental impact = world population x living standard x factor In 2050 factor should be 20 to divide the environmental impact by 2! Systemic innovation

8 What?

9 Systemic innovation and transition: definitions Systemic innovation and transition are often mixed. Not one definition of systemic innovation and transitions is available in scientific literature

10 Definition transitions (1/3) ( ) large-scale transformations within society or important subsystems during which the structure of the societal system fundamentally changes. Examples are the demographic transition and the transitions from an industrial to a service economy, from extensive to intensive agriculture, and from horse-and-carriage to individual car-mobility (Geels, 2002).

11 Definition Transitions (2/3) : multi phase Transitions comprise the shift of a relative stable system (dynamic equilibrium) that undergoes a period of relatively rapid change, during which the system reorganizes irreversibly into a new (stable) system again (Rotmans,1994).

12 Definition Transitions (3/3): characteristics Main characteristics (Grin, Rotmans and Schot, 2010): Transitions are co-evolutionary processes that require multiple changes in socio-technical configurations. Transitions are multi-actor processes, involving a large variety of social groups. Transitions are radical shifts (in scope) from one configuration to another. Transitions are long-term processes on a macro-level.

13 Multi level model

14 Landscape developments More bilateral agreements, importance open multilateral trade

15 Meso level: socio technical regime

16 Micro level: niches, innovation projects

17 How?

18 Transition management (Loorbach, 2007) -> Intentionally influencing sustainability transitions

19 Roles of government in transitions (NSOB, 2013)

20 Innovation system analysis for impact Focus on entrepreneurship / experimentation Focus on networks and actors Focus on dynamics / build-up Knowledge and technology are necessary, not sufficient

21 Innovation System Analysis

22 Reflective monitoring of systemic innovation Monitoring for different target groups in order to 1. legitimize the money spent 2. communicate results 3. learn and improve the innovation program Example: monitoring systemic innovation in the construction sector

23 Approach to Circular Economy in the Netherlands Ton Bastein

24 Contents Circular Economy: Opportunities for the Netherlands Based on TNO study Current Dutch policy approach Reflections on action fiches and previous interviews

25 The Limits to growth Worries and solutions are not new Limits to growth appeared in 1972 Causes of worries: One world Overshoot Exponential growth Required: System changes Resource efficiency Replace resources

26 An inspiring vision: the circular economy according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation

27 Recycling a less wanted option

28 Circular economy in The Netherlands : Starting point TNO analysed the (economic) opportunities for Dutch Economy Tasked by Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment 100% circular Technological and economic limits maximum transition (realistic) opportunities for the circular economy Existing activities: repair, re-use, recycle 100% linear

29 The Netherlands (and Belgium) have already accomplished substantial circularity

30 Quantification of the Circular Economy: approach Metalelektro service sectors Biobased Waste as Feedstock

31 Current recycling bio-waste: 3,5 billion EUR

32 and a potential growth with an additional1 billion EUR

33 What is metal-electro?? jobs Base metal (SBI 24) Metal products (SBI 25) Electronics (SBI 26) Electric and electronic equipment (SBI 27)

34 How did we determine the potential value for the circular economy for this sector? loop How? repair - Size repair sector - Eurostat-data depreciations Re-use = 2 nd hand market - Marktplaats.nl - ebay.com Re-use of components - 2 nd hand market - Literature Recycling - Dutch WEEE flows/wecycle - Estimates of costs and number TOTAL

35 The current value of the metalelectro circular economy: 3.3 billion EUR

36 Where does the current value come from?

37 How can the circular value grow? For example : RECYCLING Changing position waste incineration Market incentives for more recycling Technical developments Assembly for disassembly PC s New WEEE directive Better knowledge of material flows: raw materials passport? Ease of trade and transport and end-of-waste Result: more recycled goods and materials

38 Increase of circular value for metal electro Corrected for decrease of Sales of virgin products

39 Extrapolation to Dutch economy 14% 13% + 7,3 billion EUR jobs landbouw nijverheid diensten 73%

40 Benefits for the longer term miljard euro 4 3 per periode cumulatief j 3-7 j > 7j

41 Contents Circular Economy: Opportunities for the Netherlands Based on TNO study Current Dutch policy approach Reflections on action fiches and previous interviews

42 A role for government?: advise from the report A consistent strategy Ensure adequate education Review current legislation Increase knowledge about raw materials Actively support frontrunners Engage in bringing the value chain together Investigate effectiveness of fiscla incen tives Review position waste incineration Consider acting as launching customer Play an active international role End-of-waste, creation of level playing field

43 Dutch policy approach: VANG VANG = Van Afval Naar Grondstof From Waste to Resource Ambition: Remove barriers for entrepreneurs Specific support for frontrunners 50% reduction of waste-to-incineration Through more recycling and more sustainable products and consumption Up to 75% waste sorting and separation at the source Become a circular hot spot How: 8 operational goals

44 Dutch policy approach: VANG Promote circular design Design for recycling as eco-design guideline New packaging rules Raw materials label (passport) feasibility More rules and burdens? What will be enabled? IPR? Enabling sustainable consumption Study into changing consumer behaviour Strengthening role of repair and re-use companies But what is the role of government? Act as launching customer Improvement waste separation and collection Minimize waste incineration, but: remain as European incineration hub What will be effect on price? Which business cases will evolve?

45 Dutch policy approach: VANG Aim existing waste policy at circular economy A.o. stimulate end-of-waste status But keep in mind original purpose of waste regulation Stimulate specific chains (see: action fiche on sectors) Phosphate, plastics recycling, bio-waste But within current business cases Development of financial incentives Stimulus new business models (a.o. chemical leasing) Landfill taxation But a real system change is not mentioned! Knowledge development and education Better methods and indicators Especially about waste

46 Contents Circular Economy: Opportunities for the Netherlands Based on TNO study Current Dutch policy approach Reflections on action fiches and previous interviews

47 Reflections on action fiches Resource Passport What are costs and benefits? What recycling chain and business case will be enabled? Risk: consultants activity Actions against programmed obsolescence Assumes intense and deep product knowledge Cooperation producers? Remove barriers for application secondary materials Current safety measures based on relevant worries Is business waiting for secondary materials? Uncertainty in quality and quantity, Example: recycled plastics at ¼ costs of virgin!

48 Reflections on action fiches Promote EU policy on EPR Many successful examples Leads to funds for recycling operations New forms of contracts Circular business cases depend on value chain cooperation What is the role of government? What is lacking? A thorough change in dealing with materials and products requires a thorough system change E.g. fiscal changes, taxing resources instead of labour

49 Thanks for your attention /2013/06/20/tno-rapport-kansen-voor-de-circulaire-economie-in-nederland.html