Public participation in designing low carbon scenarios for Belgium

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1 Aarhus Convention 5th Meeting of the Task Force on Public Participation in Decision Making Public participation in designing low carbon scenarios for Belgium Vincent van Steenberghe Belgian Federal Ministry for the Environment Geneva, Palais des Nations, February 2015

2 According to IPCC AR5 results, drastic changes from current GHG emissions trends are required to meet the 2 C target Source: IPCC AR5

Low carbon strategies UN and EU contexts UN Cancún Agreements (2010): The Conference of the Parties, 45.

and accurate monitoring of the actual and projected progress [ ]; (b) [ ] achieving long term emission reductions [ ] in line with the Union s

2050 compared to 1990 levels inacost effective manner. 2.

3 Low carbon strategies UN and EU contexts UN Cancún Agreements (2010): The Conference of the Parties, 45. Decides that developed countries should develop lowcarbon development strategies or plans; EU Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (2013): Art. 4. Low carbon development strategies 1. Member States, and the Commission on behalf of the Union, shall prepare their low carbon development [ ] to contribute to: (a) the transparent and accurate monitoring of the actual and projected progress [ ]; (b) [ ] achieving long term emission reductions [ ] in line with the Union s objective, in the context of necessary reductions according to the IPCC by developed countries as a group, to reduce emissions by 80 to 95 % by 2050 compared to 1990 levels inacost effective manner. 2. Member States shall report to the Commission on the status of implementation of their low carbon development strategy by 9 January 2015 or in accordance with any timetable agreed internationally in the context of the UNFCCC process. 3. The Commission and the Member States shall make available to the public forthwith their respective low carbon development strategies and any updates thereof.

Low carbon strategies BE context Federal Federal long term strategic vision on

Belgian GHG emissions will be domestically reduced by at least 80 to 95% with respect

Wallonia Walloon Climate Decree: 80% to 95% between 1990 and 2050 and a procedure to

fixed for the periods 2018 2022 and 2048 2052).

4 Low carbon strategies BE context Federal Federal long term strategic vision on sustainable developement: Objective #31. Belgian GHG emissions will be domestically reduced by at least 80 to 95% with respect to their level in Wallonia Walloon Climate Decree: 80% to 95% between 1990 and 2050 and a procedure to define emission budgets for successive periods of 5 years (budgets are explicitly fixed for the periods and ). Flanders Flemish Mitigation Plan: Provides outlook for 2050 in non ETS sectors Paths and strategic choices discussed Brussels Brussels Region: 30% by 2025 compared to 1990 and willingness to accentuate the current trend towards 80 to 95%

intermediate years Key indicators Monitoring system Consultation

5 Not a strategy yet. However: The BE LCDS will include: GHG targets for 2050 and intermediate years Key indicators Monitoring system Consultation of stakeholders Preliminary scenarios at federal and regional levels and based on public participation have been submitted

reflection and initiatives in order to promote exchanges

6 Project initiated at federal level to contribute to the development of a LCDS for Belgium to encourage and fuel reflection and initiatives in order to promote exchanges between as many actors as possible Other initiatives exist at regional and local levels

7 Transition management and sustainable development Modelling 2050 Mapping initiatives Low carbon scenarios BE 2050 Webtool My 2050 BE (education) Macroeconomic, competitiveness and employment impacts Financing Distributive aspects Skills and jobs

create a vision with all stakeholders Foresee a

8 Conclusions from participative study on Transition management Mapping of initiatives needed Create transition arenas/platforms (stimulate bottom up actions, create niches) Co create a vision with all stakeholders Foresee a clear communication strategy Guarantee the continuity of the process

9 Overview of government led initiatives

Scenarios based on an open source, transparent and user friendly model developed by CLIMACT and VITO in

Demography GDP Drivers Workshops Consultations EU or national legal constraints The 2050 calculator : Initial

research institutes, NGOs or other institutions in several other countries as well as at world level Primary and

10 Scenarios based on an open source, transparent and user friendly model developed by CLIMACT and VITO in collaboration with DECC UK Policies Stakeholders expertise Historical data Energy balance sheet GHG Emissions Demography GDP Drivers Workshops Consultations EU or national legal constraints The 2050 calculator : Initial development for the UK by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) Recent developments by governments, research institutes, NGOs or other institutions in several other countries as well as at world level Primary and final energy demand Electricity and heat GHG emissions Cash flows Energy flows Energy security Land surface usage Source: DECC, Climact

11 Methodology Definition of sectors. Then: 1. Identification of main levers to reduce GHG emissions in each sector 2. Definition of four ambition levels for each lever Demand Supply TRANSPORT Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 ELECTRICITY BUILDINGS Current legal obligations No additional effort «Reference scenario» Moderate effort relatively easily achievable according to the majority of experts Significant effort requiring large changes, in terms of behaviours or investment requirements Maximum technical potential based on technical or physical constraints AGRICULT. INDUSTRY

12 Deep involvement of key actors With consultancy team (very frequent interactions) Beyond climate administration Steering committee Public administr. Project team Business organ. Labour organ. Environmental organ. High level consultation group Business, Envir. and Labour organisations Regional administrations Academics To discuss methodology (20 persons, 3 x 3 interactions) For advise on scenarios/storylines (10 pers., 3 interactions) Agriculture Oil & Gas Buildings Chemicals Paper Steel Food Industries Transport Non Ferrous Lime Energy Glass production Ceramics Cement For sectoral expertise (120 p., 15 x 3 interactions) Sector situation Possible levers Ambition levels

Example 1: levers for domestic passenger transport (ambition levels 1 and 4) Demand Level 1 Mobility demand per pers increases by ~20%; occupation levels of cars decrease by ~5%; occupation levels of

13 Example 1: levers for domestic passenger transport (ambition levels 1 and 4) Demand Level 1 Mobility demand per pers increases by ~20%; occupation levels of cars decrease by ~5%; occupation levels of buses and trains increase by ~10% Level 4 Mobility demand per pers decreases by ~20%; occupation levels of cars increase by ~15%; occupation levels of buses increase by ~50% and trains by ~33% Behavioural or lifestyle changes can be very strong according to some participants Energy efficiency Level 1 Level 4 ICE vehicle fleet is ~19% more efficient than current fleet, plug in hybrids and electric cars are ~30% more efficient; ICE, hybrid and electric buses are ~15% more efficient; Rail transport's efficiency is ~10% more efficient ICE vehicle fleet is ~50% more efficient than current fleet, plug in hybrids are 50 55% more efficient and electric cars are ~55% more efficient; ICE, hybrid and electric buses are ~30% more efficient; Rail transport's efficiency is ~40% more efficient for diesel and ~30% more efficient for electric traction Expectations of participants regarding technological developments in the transport sector

Example 2 : number of animals (ambition levels 1 and 4) Animals Level 1 With an increasing population and similar diets, the meat consumption increases and results in an

Level 4 Changes in the diets lead to a decrease in meat consumption, and a resulting decrease in the number of animals by 43% in 2050 compared to 2010.

Based on national food plan recommendations (healthy diet consisting of 75 100 grams of meat, fish, egg and meat substitutes per day per person) Example 3 : biomass import

14 Example 2 : number of animals (ambition levels 1 and 4) Animals Level 1 With an increasing population and similar diets, the meat consumption increases and results in an increase in the number of animals by 2% in 2050 compared to 2010; this leads to ~43 mio animals in Belgium in Level 4 Changes in the diets lead to a decrease in meat consumption, and a resulting decrease in the number of animals by 43% in 2050 compared to This leads to ~ 24 mio animals in Based on national food plan recommendations (healthy diet consisting of grams of meat, fish, egg and meat substitutes per day per person) Example 3 : biomass import (ambition levels 1 and 4) Biomass imports Level 1 Gradual increase of the import level to 10 TWh/year in 2020 and then stable from there to 2050 (2/3 solid and 1/3 liquid). Level 4 Gradual increase of the import level to 20 TWh/year in 2020 and then further increase to 60 TWh in 2050 (2/3 solid and 1/3 liquid). Based on estimations of world potential of sustainable biomass (per capita allocation)

Example 4 : new buildings compactness Compactness Level 1 An important share of the people tend to live & work in suburban to

After 2030 the share of flats remains constant.

Increase in the share of flats in the total of new houses up to 77% in 2030.

Lifestyles changes and spatial planning are important Example 5 : onshore wind Onshore wind Level 1 Capacity increases up to ~6

15 Example 4 : new buildings compactness Compactness Level 1 An important share of the people tend to live & work in suburban to rural areas. A decreasing proportion of flats compared to 2010 up to the level of 40% by After 2030 the share of flats remains constant. Level 4 An important share of the people tend to live & work in urban areas, resulting in more urbanisation. Increase in the share of flats in the total of new houses up to 77% in After 2030 the share of flats remains at that level which is typically reached in urban areas nowadays. Lifestyles changes and spatial planning are important Example 5 : onshore wind Onshore wind Level 1 Capacity increases up to ~6 GW in 2050, doubling the 3 GW capacity planned in 2020 in the Belgian NREAP. This requires installing 240 MW, or ~100 new turbines per year. Level 4 Capacity increases up to maximum technical potential of ~13 GW in This requires installing on average 460 MW, or ~180 new turbines per year Takes technical, visibility, constraints into account

16 A set of 5 scenarios reaching 80 to 95% GHG emission reductions Spatial planning, working arrangements, social innovation and networks, reducing meat consumption, BEHAVIOUR SCENARIO ( 80%) CORE SCENARIO ( 80%) Overall feasibility, high ambition level but not technical maximum, TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO ( 80%) Role of technologies, risks and opportunities, R&D, 95% GHG REDUCTION SCENARIO EU INTEGRATION SCENARIO ( 87%) Stretch all levers to reach the higher end of the reduction range Transmission and back up requirements, EU energy integration,

17 A set of 5 scenarios reaching 80 to 95% GHG emission reduction GHG emissions in Belgium (MtCO 2 e per year) Agriculture & others Building Transport % % % 24 80% 80% 95% 88% Industry Energy Reference Behaviour Core Technology 95% GHG EU integration 2050

Scenarios allow to build ranges for the main indicators 600 Total final energy demand 160 Total electricity demand TWh/year 500 400 300 200 100 Range of the 3 «80% GHG» Max balanced low carbon

18 Scenarios allow to build ranges for the main indicators 600 Total final energy demand 160 Total electricity demand TWh/year Range of the 3 «80% GHG» Max balanced low carbon scenarios Reference scenario Core 95% GHG EU integration /y Range of the 3 «80% GHG» Max balanced low carbon scenarios Reference scenario Core 95% GHG EU integration Source: Belgium OPEERA model (Climact, VITO)

19 Formal Informal Minister for climate and energy Official launch Nat. Climate Commission (federal state + regions) Advise from formal consultation bodies Steering committee Public administr. Project team Business organ. Labour organ. Environmental organ. High level consultation group Business, Envir. and Labour organisations Regional administrations Academics Belgian LCDS Preliminary scenarios (a.o.) Presentations at Int., EU and national levels Agriculture Oil & Gas Buildings Chemicals Paper Steel Food Industries Transport Non Ferrous Lime Energy Glass production Ceramics Cement

20 Webtool Online tool ( Possibility to create your own scenario and analyse some key impacts Scenarios can be submitted online

transition challenges Educational package for professors

21 My 2050 (UK) Audience: schools (15 17 years old) and many others Objective: understand and debate on key transition challenges Educational package for professors Modern communication tools! UNDER DEVELOPMENT AT BELGIAN LEVEL!

22 Transition management and sustainable development Modelling 2050 Mapping initiatives Low carbon scenarios BE 2050 Webtool My 2050 BE (education) Macroeconomic, competitiveness and employment impacts Financing Distributive aspects Skills and jobs

23 Conclusions 1. Co constructed and transparent methodology leading to a vision based on a set of scenarios 2. Implication of key and diverse actors (including frontrunners) 3. For building scenarios, careful selection of mix of actors within each group At the right moment in the process In the right context (e.g. expert, high level, informal, ) 4. Management of tension between comfort zone (think out of the box) and political follow up (encourages participation) 5. Follow up, full transparency and broad communication

environnement.brussels Flanders: www.lne.

24 At federal level: At regional level: Brussels: Flanders: Wallonia:

Building low carbon scenarios for Belgium. International Conference on 2050 Calculator Taipei, TAIWAN, February 2015

Building low carbon scenarios for Belgium International Conference on Calculator Taipei, TAIWAN, 10-12 February 2015 Low carbon strategies context UN Cancún Agreements (December 2010): The Conference