How does the 1.5 C hotter World look like?

Transcription

1 How does the 1.5 C hotter World look like? Daniela Jacob Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht

2 In the observational record half a degree matters From Schleussner et al. (2017, Nature Climate Change): Differences in extreme weather event indices for 0.5 ºC warming. PDF show the globally averaged land fraction that experienced a certain change between and

3 Local changes associated with 2 C global warming for Hottest day-time temperature Annual coldest night-time temperature Mean temperature From Seneviratne et al, 2016, Nature, Vol 529SE

4 Local changes associated with 2 C global warming for Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation Seneviratne et al, 2016, Nature, Vol 529SE

5 Relative change in annual discharge at 2 C compared with present day, under RCP8.5. Jacob Schewe et al. PNAS 2014;111: by National Academy of Sciences

6 IMPACT2C: Quantifying projected impacts under 2C warming IMPACT2C (EU-FP7) investigated the impacts of +2 o C global warming on Europe and other vulnerable global regions - Bangladesh, Africa (Nile & Niger river basins), the Maldives and provided detailed ensemble based climate change scenarios, statistics and derived indices, tailored to the needs of various sectors, for the time slice when the global temperature is simulated to be +2 o C above pre industrial levels (+1.5 o C and +3 o C global warming were considered for some cases) provided detailed analysis of risks, vulnerabilities, impacts and costs for range of sectors using consistent RCPs/ and SSPs (Representative Concentration Pathways / Shared Socio-economic Pathways) provides analysis of adaptation response strategies accounting for the regional differences in adaptive capacity

7 Determining global warming thresholds* 'Pre-industrial' period (GISS LOT1, HadCRUT3, NOAA NCDC) Base period Temperature threshold periods determined by year in which GCM 30 year running mean crosses the temperature threshold starting from the base period warming * Vautard et al The European climate under a 2 o C global warming

8 IMPACT2C: +2 o C Evolution of global temperature. Observed historical (black line) and future projections from different GCMs (CMIP5). Time series are smoothed using a 30-year running mean. The 2 o C threshold is marked in red. Pre-industrial time: ; baseline period: In RCP2.6 most GCMs do not reach +2ºC at all. For RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 the central estimates all lie in the relatively narrow time frame between 2042 and 2050.

9 What does +2 o C global warming mean for Europe? Most regions in Europe warm more than global average; exceptions are British Isles, France, Germany and surrounding area; Most pronounced warming in the north and east in winter and in the south in summer; More precipitation in the north and more severe heavy precipitation extremes in most of Europe.

10 IMPACT2C: modelling environment and linkages Climate projections Impact assessment tailoring information to user needs

11 What are the associated impacts and adaptation?

12 IMPACT2C: cross-sectoral analysis for Europe An integration and hot-spot mapping exercise using the IMPACT2C sector results (water, agriculture, tourism, energy) shows a strong distributional pattern across Europe, with hotspots clearly emerging in the south Robust multi-sectoral hotspot 'winners northern (Norway and Sweden) north-eastern Europe (Poland, eastern Germany, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states) Robust multi-sectoral hotspot losers southern Europe (Spain, France, Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece)

13 IMPACT2C atlas: By presenting a wide variety of potential climate change impacts, the IMPACT2C atlas aims to serve various audiences in gathering information for the development of recommendations on possible adaptation strategies on national and international levels

14 IMPACT2C policy briefs

15 Summary Based on the evidence presented: Some appreciable changes in climate impacts at 1.5C Differential impacts between 1.5C and 2C worlds, are, on the whole, not considerable for Europe, more pronounced at 3C Find out more: Online atlas available at: IMPACT2C Special Issue in Climate Services online available at

16 Acknowledgement Stefan Sobolowski, Abdulla Sakalli, Alessandro Dosio, Alessandro Cescatti, Andrea Damm, Wouter Gruell, Oskar landgren, Franz Prettenthaler, Nikola Rogler, Christoph Toeglhofer, Chantal Donnelly, Philippe Roudier, Dieter Gerten, Giovanna Pisacane, Daniela Jacob, Lola Kotova, Robert Vautard, and the whole IMPACT2C team. EU FP7 IMPACT2C grant agreement no