PRICE SETTING IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKETS WITHIN THE EU SINGLE MARKET

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1 PRICE SETTING IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKETS WITHIN THE EU SINGLE MARKET A report to the Committee on Industry, Research and Energy of the European Parliament February, 2006

2 Outline Characteristics of the main electricity markets, European price structures and trends, Impact on electricity prices of emissions trading, Long-term contracts effects, Conclusions.

3 Main electricity markets characteristics Facts: Common agreement on unified electricity market, Cross-border trade at about 8% of EU consumption, Lack of interconnecting capacity between countries, Very low number of producers as bidders, Results: No EU integrated market yet Local markets, Regional markets- operating and developing. Not all regional markets function up to standards, W.EU vs. E.EU countries market development: indecisive, More detailed insight needed.

4 International interdependence, 2003 EU Baltic Nordic Eastern Europe Western Europe Import Capacity as a % of Installed Capacity* Exports % Iberia Imports % UK & Ireland 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100

5 Level of network unbundling, 2005 UK Sweden Spain Portugal Netherlands Italy Finland Lithuania Germany France Denmark Belgium Austria Slovenia Slovakia Poland Latvia Ireland Hungary Estonia Czech Republic Cyprus Luxembourg Greece Distribution system operator Transmission system operator 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 Unbundling index (5 max)

6 Market opening, 2005 Nordic Iberia UK & Ireland Western Europe EU Eastern Europe Market opening Baltic 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

7 Regulatory independence, 2003

8 Competition in retail and generation, 2005 Share (%) Malta Lithuania Greece Cyprus Portugal Latvia Belgium Netherlands Ireland France Spain Slovakia Slovenia Nordic Austria UK Hungary Germany Czech Republic Italy Poland 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Country To high market power? Largest producer by capacity** Top 3 suppliers' share (all consumers)

9 Level of customers switching supplier, 2005 UK Sweden Ireland Finland Denmark Germany Belgium Netherlands Hungary France Austria Spain Lithuania Italy Slovenia Slovakia Poland Luxembourg Portugal Malta Latvia Greece Estonia Cyprus Small commercial / domestic Large eligible industrial users 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

10 Pricing structures Tariffs: Liberalisation let to more competing tariffs, Number of tariffs reduced with market regulation, Social tariffs to domestic customers, Industrial consumers have a wider choice of tariffs than domestic customers. Price convergence: Regions reached more price convergence than EU as a whole, Convergence of prices improves with stronger interconnection, Accession members without electricity taxes.

11 Price trends Electricity prices: Downward trend , higher productivity Stable period Growth after Reasons for prices growth: Rising prices of gas, Dwindling surpluses of electricity, Inadequate EU electricity market model, No feedback for new: generating units, transmission and distribution capacities, remuneration of investment (marginal prices variable costs).

12 Average price development Consumer 3.5 MWh/year Industrial consumer 2.0 MWh/year

13 Price convergence- Coefficient of variation

14 Breakdown of electricity prices, 2004 (50 MWh /year customer) ( /MWh before taxes)

15 ETA impact on electricity prices Emission trading allowances (ETA) for CO 2 : Producer obtains the certificates, If he needs more he has to buy them in the market. Market prices of allowances: Significant initial price transient, Less impact on the end user than on wholesale prices (long term contracts), Industry can not get compensation for its losses. Auction could: Finance the CO 2 reduction or Transfer wealth from polluters to government or reverse, Appropriate model required. Simulation (by sparks spreads): Most if not all of the allowance cost passed into electricity wholesale price, Estimated impact on wholesale electricity price (20-30)% Lack of empirical evidence to judge (to short time).

16 Price evolution of emission allowance Shot up in the summer 2005 (due to increased gas prices, drought and adverse weather), Stabilized afterwards,

17 Marginal costs and wholesale power prices 2005 CO 2

18 Spark spreads (Simulation results) (=the difference between electricity prices and fuel costs for gas plants) Since the spark spread net allowances are equal the sector passes on its entire costs

19 Retail prices in Slovenia (band ) Gibanje cen za PAS med leti 2007 do ,00 50,00 45,00 40,00 35,00 30, datum oblikovanja cene PAS 07 PAS 08 PAS 09 EUR / MWh

20 Long term contracts Lack of long-term contracts is considered to be the sole reason behind the California electricity crisis. Relatively low energy volume in the EU spot markets. Reasons: High market power of producers in EU electricity market, Industrial electricity users shield themselves from the volatility of the market prices - risk reduction, Collusive activity less attractive, Ensuring stability of prices, Encourage investment in a very capital-intensive, slow-return industry, Incentive for entering new providers, Timing of essential maintenance work - increase of electricity availability, Will not solve growing problem of production and supply mismatch.

21 Conclusions The report: on various aspect of EU electricity markets and suggestion for policies development. Desirable: Increasing cross-border connectivity, Promoting long-term contracts, Continuous monitoring of price development, Electricity market model correction to accommodate the growing problem of production and supply mismatch. Emission trading scheme: Positive for controlling emissions, Model should be monitored for its possible adverse effects.

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