Optimal Co-Production of Market Based Power Grid Support and Renewable Fuels or Chemicals Progress 2016 in NEC and SmartP2G2

Transcription

1 VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND LTD Optimal Co-Production of Market Based Power Grid Support and Renewable Fuels or Chemicals Progress 2016 in NEC and SmartP2G2 01/24/17 NEC Researchers Day Robert Weiss

2 Contents Introduction Power-to-X production using renewable power Case process description Electrical grid ancillary services Results: Sizing and operation of a PtX plant Case 1: stable but inflexible H 2 demand (F-T / other Industrial Process) Case 2: flexible CH 4 production 11/15/16 2

3 Power-to-X production Potential and need for operational optimization Renewable Power? Power Markets Power-to-X Operation Multiple, sometimes conflicting targets PtX products Fuels H2, CH4 Side products Oxygen Heat (Steam) Support to System Operator (Power Grid) Grid Frequency based Ancillary Service 11/15/16 3

4 Power-to-X production using renewable power Potential and need for operational optimization Renewable Power Power Markets Power-to-X Operation Multiple, sometimes conflicting targets Intermittency of renewable power Robust Dynamic Operation of whole process chain Robust Optimization for operational margin and physical process operation Must deliver situations Must run situations Worst case risks included in model Support to System Operator (Power Grid) Grid Frequency based Ancillary Service Longer term trends in response, distortions up/down Worst case calculations, used in robust optimization Storage and buffer sizing to meet worst cases and true ancillary service need of the grid PtX products Fuels H2, CH4 CH3OH, FT-products Chemicals NH 3 Light Olefins C2H4,C3H6 Reduction Agents H2 for metals Side products Oxygen Heat (Steam) 11/15/16 4

5 Power-to-X process robust optimization model Storages or Sources Wind & Solar Power Other Power H 2 -Buffer Fischer-Tropsch or other steady-state Industrial Process Ancillary Service worst case scenarios Utilizing grid frequency data from System Operator (1) Normal Operation (2) Ancillary Service induced process disturbances Sustainable H2 Other H2 CASE 1: Stable but inflexible H2 demand 11/15/16 5

6 Power-to-X process robust optimization model Storages or Sources C x H y Process unit(s) Costs for eventual purification and transport or pipeline Wind & Solar Power Other Power H 2 -Buffer Operational flexibility or inflexible Sustainable C x H y Other C x H y CO 2 purification requirements Sustainable H2 Other H2 Sustainable C x H y Other C x H y Ancillary Service worst case scenarios Utilizing grid frequency data from System Operator (1) Normal Operation (2) Ancillary Service induced process disturbances CASE 1: Stable but inflexible H2 demand CASE 2: PtX for flexible CxHy production 11/15/16 6

7 Sizing of a PtX plant in a renewable power system Sizing of the solar and wind power vs. PtX plant Generally, good PtX economics can not be reached if the PtX plant s nominal capacity is sized to 100% of wind and/or solar capacity PtX nominal size 5MW In our examples, we use a PtX-process with 5 MW nominal power capacity sized towards a contract combination of a 133% wind power capacity and 100% solar PV capacity. Wind power measurements from the Finnish TSO. PV plant measurements from a Finnish utility site (HELEN Suvilahti, Helsinki). 11/15/16 7

8 Power Capacities Case 1 Market Power Solar power capacity Nominal Capacity Full load Wind power capacity PEM Electrolyzer H2 H2-Load (Industrial or F-T) 24x7 steady but inflexible 11/15/16 8

9 Power Capacities Case 1 Market Power Solar power capacity Nominal Capacity Full load Part load Wind power capacity PEM Electrolyzer H2 H2 Buffer 0-24h H2-Load (Industrial or F-T) 24x7 steady but inflexible 11/15/16 9

10 Power Capacities Case 1 Market Power Solar power capacity PEM Overload capacity Nominal Capacity Full load Part load Wind power capacity PEM Electrolyzer H2 H2 Buffer 0-24h H2-Load (Industrial or F-T) 24x7 steady but inflexible 11/15/16 10

11 Example weeks: Winter and Summer (Considerable differences in Grid Reserve situation) Winter week (Julian Day 1-7, 2013) enough reserves in the power grid Summer week (Julian Day , 2013) lack of reserves in the grid 11/15/16 11

12 PtX Power costs example weeks (reference: For un-optimized case power is 60-80% of production costs) Winter week (Julian Day 1-7, 2013) enough reserves in the power grid Summer week (Julian Day , 2013) lack of reserves in the grid Net Power Costs per kgh2 Winter week (Day 1-7, 2013) enough reserves in the power grid Net Power Costs per kgh2 Summer week (Day , 2013) lack of reserves in the power grid ** Utilizing also stranded Wind and Solar power ** Utilizing also stranded Wind and Solar power Electrolyzer sized to part load level Electrolyzer sized to part load level 11/15/16 12 Utilizing Stranded Wind 15 EUR/MWh

13 PtX Power costs Stranded Wind vs Market (reference: For un-optimized case power is 60-80% of production costs) Net Power Costs per kgh2 Utilizing Only SPOT Market power (ELSPOT FI 2013) Net Power Costs per kgh2 no H2-buffer Winter week (Day 1-7, 2013) enough reserves in the power grid ** Utilizing only Elspot Energy Summer week (Day , 2013) lack of reserves in the power grid ** Utilizing only Elspot Energy Electrolyzer sized to part load level Electrolyzer sized to part load level Net Power Costs per kgh2 Winter week (Day 1-7, 2013) enough reserves in the power grid Net Power Costs per kgh2 Summer week (Day , 2013) lack of reserves in the power grid ** Utilizing also stranded Wind and Solar power ** Utilizing also stranded Wind and Solar power Electrolyzer sized to part load level Electrolyzer sized to part load level 11/15/16 13 Utilizing Stranded Wind 15 EUR/MWh

14 Benefit of electrolyzer overload option Electrolyser Nominal Capacity 5 MW e + 60% Overload option (1h overload + 1h rest) Electrolyser Efficiency (1) No benefit in the winter week (2) Large cost saving benefit in the summer week Ancillary service price spikes in the summer due to lack of inertia in the power grid Largest benefit when sizing the electrolyzer 1:1 to the steady H 2 -load, i.e. no oversizing. Nominal power Overload Operation (optional) Requires large H 2 -buffer because of inflexible H 2 -demand 11/15/16 H 14 2 consumption : Electrolyzer Capacity

15 Case1 : Full year results Wind&Solar power used Almost all used if the electrolyzer is sized full load Usage decreases if the electrolyzer is sized to part load Share of Wind&Solar based H2 Low if the electrolyzer is sized to full load level (100%) Increases if the electrolyzer is sized to part load Electrolyzer sized to part load level 11/15/16 15

16 Case1 : Full year results Wind&Solar power used Almost all used if the electrolyzer is sized full load Usage decreases if the electrolyzer is sized to part load Share of Wind&Solar based H2 Low if the electrolyzer is sized to full load level (100%) Increases if the electrolyzer is sized to part load Electrolyzer sized to part load level Net Power Costs per kgh2 Using Newbuild 48USD/MWh Using Old average O&M-cost 16 USD/MWh FCR Income FCR income (Frequency containment reserve): High in the summer weeks Requires H2 buffer space Net power costs seem to be clearly lower if: Electrolyzer is sized to 50-70% partial load (i.e. oversized) The H2 buffer is sized large, e.g.. 24 hours Electrolyzer sized to part load level Net Power Cost for Wind&Solar-based H2 11/15/16 16 Net Power Cost for all H2 ( Grid-average + Wind&Solar-based)

17 Case1: PtX with stable but inflexible H 2 demand Total costs per kgh2 including CAPEX and O&M Total Cost US$ / kgh2 Ely part load level Electrolyzer sized to part load level Using Old average O&M-cost 16 USD/MWh Competitive H 2 -prices seem to be reachable compared to steam reforming (avg. cost 1.7 USD/kg) when using old wind power 11/15/16 17

18 Case1: PtX with stable but inflexible H 2 demand Total costs per kgh2 including CAPEX and O&M Total Cost US$ / kgh2 Ely part load level Electrolyzer sized to part load level Using Old average O&M-cost 16 USD/MWh Total Cost US$ / kgh2 Competitive H 2 -prices seem to be reachable compared to steam reforming (avg. cost 1.7 USD/kg) when using old wind power when using new wind power, only if CAPEX comes down for the electrolyzer Ely part load level 11/15/16 18 Using Newbuild 48USD/MWh

19 Power Capacities Case 2 Market Power Solar power capacity PEM Overload capacity Nominal Capacity Full load Part load Wind power capacity PEM Electrolyzer H2 H2 Buffer 0-24h Flexible Methanation SNG 11/15/16 19

20 CASE 2: PtX for flexible CH4 production Operation results Undersizing the methanation unit towards the electrolyzer (0.7 : 1) : (-) Reduced utilization of available solar and wind power. (+) Increased share of solar and wind based CH 4 in the end product gas mixture A more flexible methanation (operation range % instead of %) increased the share of solar and wind based CH 4 in the end product gas mixture with 10%, when methanation unit sized 1:1 towards the electrolyzer. Hydrogen buffer can be kept at a minimum 1-4 hours larger does not affect results at all 11/15/16 20

21 CASE 2: PtX for flexible CH4 production Operation results Undersizing the methanation unit towards the electrolyzer (0.7 : 1) : (-) Reduced utilization of available solar and wind power. (+) Increased share of solar and wind based CH 4 in the end product gas mixture A more flexible methanation (operation range % instead of %) increased the share of solar and wind based CH 4 in the end product gas mixture with 10%, when methanation unit sized 1:1 towards the electrolyzer. Hydrogen buffer can be kept at a minimum 1-4 hours larger does not affect results at all 11/15/16 21

22 CASE 2: PtX for flexible CH4 production Operation results Undersizing the methanation unit towards the electrolyzer (0.7 : 1) : (-) Reduced utilization of available solar and wind power. (+) Increased share of solar and wind based CH 4 in the end product gas mixture A more flexible methanation (operation range % instead of %) increased the share of solar and wind based CH 4 in the end product gas mixture with 10%, when methanation unit sized 1:1 towards the electrolyzer. Hydrogen buffer can be kept at a minimum 1-4 hours larger does not affect results at all 11/15/16 22

23 CASE 2: PtX for flexible CH 4 production Effect of CO 2 cost or allowances, Total costs per mmbtu including CAPEX and O&M Methanation CAPEX estimation is challenging, since small- and medium scale methanation is not available on the market today. Competitive CH 4 -prices compared to current US SPOT prices (< 3 USD/mmBTU) seem challenging to reach. Higher CO 2 allowance prices and/or cost efficiency improvements in the electrolyzer and methanation manufacturing and technology could however change the picture. 11/15/16 23

24 Summary and conclusions Solar&Windpower-based PtX example cases for H 2 and CH 4 were shown for Finnish climate and power market conditions. Concurrent sizing and operational planning needed to find economical potential Robust optimization needed to include the effects of uncertainty Participation to electrical grid ancillary services (FCR) is essential Electrolyzer s capacity to temporarily overload during FCR-price peaks is beneficial Competitive H 2 -prices seem to be reachable for PtX compared to steam reforming CH 4 case seems to require technological advances 11/15/16 24