Renewable Energy and combining it with Nuclear Power

Transcription

1

2 Renewable Energy and combining it with Nuclear Power Christian Breyer Professor for Solar Economy, LUT Climate Seminar, Finnish Parliament Helsinki, December 2, 2014

3 Preliminary Note German point of view is presented not everything is officially approved by German government BUT, everything is major part of the discussion of stakeholders in Germany Climate Change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen. N. Stern, Economics of Climate Change,

4 IPCC: Mitigation in Energy Sectors source: IPCC, th AR Synthesis Report 4 GHG emissions in the power sector to be zero by 2050 ALL new investments MUST fulfill this requirement

5 Climate Change and Energy Targets in DE GHG emissions % (2050), i.e. -100% in the energy sector!! slow down of RE investments critical efficiency targets are very ambitious GHG emission target needs more emphasis 5 source: BMWi, Second Monitoring Report Energy of the future; Statement on the Second Monitoring Report

6 Request of Citizens in DE >90% of citizens call for action remarkable high support for RE clear order for the government to execute the will of the people 6

7 Electricity System Development Energiewende started in 1990s wind energy, bioenergy, solar PV grow hydro power is limited final nuclear phase-out agreed in 2011 (for 2022) only a intermediate step still 15% nuclear power still 45% coal power inflexible basepower still 40% 7

8 System consequences of RE in DE electricity export despite of nuclear phase-out high renewable energy production leads to significantly reduced prices renewables already in the baseload range 8

9 System consequences of PV in DE source: Fraunhofer ISE PV induces pressure on wholesale price gas is substituted first hard coal starts to be substituted lignite coal/ nuclear not adapted but exported in times of PV feed-in highest electricity exports of Germany in its history 9

10 Export/ Import of Electricity 10

11 Impact of PV (or wind energy) on the System source: V. Quaschning, HTW Berlin 11 good match of solar PV and basepower (nuclear, lignite coal) in the beginning massive system conflict of intermittent renewable energy and inflexible basepower cost efficient power supply with high shares or renewables requires a flexible energy system (not nuclear, not lignite coal)

12 Impact of PV (or wind energy) on the System source: V. Quaschning, HTW Berlin 12 good match of solar PV and basepower (nuclear, lignite coal) in the beginning massive system conflict of intermittent renewable energy and inflexible basepower cost efficient power supply with high shares or renewables requires a flexible energy system (not nuclear, not lignite coal)

13 Impact of PV (or wind energy) on the System source: V. Quaschning, HTW Berlin 13 good match of solar PV and basepower (nuclear, lignite coal) in the beginning massive system conflict of intermittent renewable energy and inflexible basepower cost efficient power supply with high shares or renewables requires a flexible energy system (not nuclear, not lignite coal)

14 Cost of cleantech solutions PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option nuclear and coal-ccs is too expensive nuclear and coal-ccs are high risk technologies high value added for PV-Wind due to higher capacities needed 14 source: Agora Energiewende, Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174

15 E.ON and its Survival Strategy bad bank for E.ON solution for the system conflict, disinvestment of the old energy business new energy business: renewables, grids, end-user services potentially new role model for utilities (globally) 15

16 Cost of the Energiewende Negative Politics payment of end-users not priveledged (virtual) cost increase by a factor of 2 due to policy changes (mainly subsidies to industry and failed market design) payment to RE operators 16

17 Investors in Renewable Energy in Germany citizens finance the Energiewende new boom years for (energy) cooperatives high value creation in rural areas important precondition: feed-in tariffs (no broad benefits with tendering, investment support unclear) large utilites are NO help (in Germany) 17

18 100% RE in Germany Fraunhofer ISE 18 source: Henning H.-M. and Palzer A., % Renewables for Electricity and Heat a Holistic Model for a Future German Energy System, 7 th IRES, Berlin

19 100% RE in Germany Reiner Lemoine Institut cost of 100% RE similar to today s cost decentral and central option cost are more or less the same system is switching from operational to capital expenditures and fuel is squeezed out BUT, operational fraction still one third equivalent to more jobs than today 19

20 Role of Battery and PtG Storage mobility will be powered by electricity (batteries and PtG) chemistry will change the resource basis towards electricity source: Agora Energiewende, Stromspeicher in der Energiwende 20

21 Storage: The story of PV reloaded? Key insights (Battery): 100 /kwh battery pack capex translates roughly into 200 /kwh battery system capex tremendous boost for decentral PV-battery applications (on-grid) cost for storing a kwh then <10 ct/kwh stored 30-50% of generation, LCOS are 3-5 ct/kwh PV LCOE might be 3-6 ct/kwh 6-11 ct/kwh for very high self-supply shares cost level Key insights (PtG): first 1 GW very important for cost scaling /kw capex will trigger continuous growth for PtG PtG is one of the most valuable technologies in 21 st century Neo-Carbon Energy (LUT, VTT, UTU) launched in July by Tekes Finland could catch up with leading Germany, but industrial will needed source: UBS, Will solar, batteries and electric cars re-shape the electricity system?, August 20; Agora Energiewende, Stromspeicher in der Energiewende, September 16

22 Summary GHG emissions (2050): % in total, i.e. -100% for energy targets for 2020 are very ambitious German citizens call for political actions marginal PV capacities complement nuclear power plants significant PV and wind capacities are not compatible with nuclear nuclear is a high cost and high risk alternative to renewables 100% RE system is feasible: technical, economical, ecological 22

23 Thanks for your attention!

24

25 Cost of the Energiewende - Technologies all new energy technologies got massive subsidies cost of RE rather low until now massive distorted accounting of real cost, as external cost are not considered (health, environment, military, value creation, taxes, etc.) national benefits of RE are signifcantly higher than the cost People start asking why has the industry never complained about the subsidies in the other energy sectors? Now it is also people s business! (more democratic, more transparent, peer-to-peer AND lower cost) 25

26 China s Power Capacity Investments we witness a historic turning point, since no 1 power investor structurally changes the investment strategy (reason: reduction of total societal costs of energy generation) this will have a dramatic impact on the global investment trends since many countries accept China leading many fields it should be no surprise if international climate change policy will be pushed by China (obvious reason: China is the largest manufacturer of the products needed ) 26

27 Cost comparison to other power technologies utility PV already competitive to new gas and coal fired power plants solar PV lower in cost than gas and coal from about 2015 onwards solar PV and wind are the least cost power sources from about 2015 onwards STEG significantly higher in cost than solar PV new nuclear already higher in cost than solar PV (despite of nuclear subsidies) 27

28 Impression for (Commercial) End-User Profitability source: REC Solar, Study on the Profitability of Commercial Self-Consumption Solar Installations in Germany; Italy and Turkey (only in German available) 28 Lappeenranta University of Technology both systems on the right are part of a 220 kwp commercial solar PV system it is financially beneficial for the university source: Kosonen A., Ahola J., Breyer Ch., Albó A., Large Scale Solar Power Plant in Nordic Conditions, 16 th EU Conference on Power Electronics and Applications, August 26-28

29 100% RE in Ireland Aalborg University, DK source: Connolly D. and Mathiesen V., A technical and economic analysis of one potential pathway to a 100% renewable energy system, Int. J. Sustain Energy Planning and Mgm Key characteristics: 100% RE system for all sector hourly resolved simulation solar PV forgotten well balanced RE-heat and RE-mobility focus on energy flows and system costs no grid, no import/ export, not fully optimised 29

30 100% RE in Ireland Aalborg University, DK 7 step approach feasible significant increase in power demand (~ +350%) BUT, no change in total primary energy demand (TPED) highly efficient power-based RE system enables powerto-gas/liquid pathways 30

31 100% RE in Ireland Aalborg University, DK 2020 system cost only 30% higher than reference (neglecting: cost of climate change, cancer deaths, negative trade balance effects, lower level of employment in energy sector, less tax income) 2050 system cost identical to reference simplified standard economic consideration, neglecting the full view on total societal cost otherwise, maybe 30% less in cost (personal estimate) 31 significant increase in employment (> jobs)