TOWARDS ZERO CARBON. The University of Exeter Carbon Descent Plan for Utilities 2010 to 2050

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1 TOWARDS ZERO CARBON The University of Exeter Carbon Descent Plan for Utilities 2010 to ) Introduction: The University already has an ambitious Carbon Management Plan in place to reduce carbon emissions by 60% by Government have recently raised their targets to a reduction of 80% by HEFCE are presently consulting on suitable targets for the HE sector, with an aspiration to achieve a 100% reduction by 2050 or zero carbon. This document describes a scenario by which the University might meet the proposed targets and is an appendix to the Carbon Management Plan. 2) Present Situation: University carbon dioxide emissions from fuels in 2008/09 were 21,700 tonnes per year, down by 16% since 2005/6. The emissions were caused by electricity (64%), gas (29%) and oil (7%). The reduction significantly exceeds the Carbon Management Plan target of a 2% fall per year and is the main factor which led to the award of the Carbon Trust Standard to the University in ) Targets and Aspirations: The University Carbon Management Plan set targets of 11% reduction by 2010/11 and 60% reduction by 2050 from the 2004/05 baseline. The 11% reduction was actually achieved in 2008/09. The plan covered the period 2007 to 2016 and included a range of actions to reduce carbon emissions. At that stage, it was not clear how the 60% reduction target could be achieved. The Climate Change Act (2008) - the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has set a mandatory target for Government to reduce UK emissions by 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 relative to the 1990 baseline. It seems likely that Government departments and estate will be required to meet these targets. The Low Carbon Transition Plan published by DECC in August 09 sets interim carbon budgets for 2012 (22%) and 2017 (28%) relative to the 1990 baseline. It should be noted that UK emissions have already decreased by 21% since 1990 so the early targets have nearly been achieved. HEFCE Carbon Reduction Target Consultation - HEFCE has published a consultation document on carbon emissions targets. This recommends that the sector should commit to achieving the targets in the DECC Low Carbon Transition Plan based on 1990 emissions. However the sector emissions have increased by 17% since 1990 so the targets have become much harder to achieve. HEFCE also proposes higher aspirational targets in response to the perceived leadership role in society and innovation provided by Universities. The aspirational targets are a reduction of 50% by 2020 and 100% (zero carbon) by 2050 compared to the 1990 baseline. The table below shows the reduced CO2 emissions for the Page 1 of 8

2 University in tonnes per year and converts the HEFCE targets to a 2006 baseline. To achieve the HEFCE aspiration for 2020, we would have to reduce our CO2 emissions by 57% compared to the 2006 baseline. HEFCE Commitment HEFCE Aspiration CO2 Reduction from CO2 Reduction from tonnes pa Base 1990 Base 2006 tonnes pa Base 1990 Base ,722 0% 25,722 0% ,510 34% 44% 10,992 50% 57% ,397 80% 83% 0 100% 100% 4) University Expansion Plans: The University has plans in place and being developed for several new buildings including the Forum, School of Business, Mood Disorders Centre, INTO and a new laboratory adjacent to Amory. The Geoffrey Pope building is being refurbished and a new aquarium constructed. These projects are expected to increase carbon dioxide emissions by about 3,500 tonnes per year (16%) once fully operational, potentially reversing the recent gains. Beyond about 2017, it has been assumed that the University will continue to expand but at a slower rate. There will be a gradual process of replacement and refurbishment of existing buildings and this should incorporate sufficient energy saving measures to offset the growth in the estate. However, many of the University s classic buildings will still be on campus in 2050 and for a long time into the future and will require heating and lighting. 5) External Factors: Many external factors will influence how the University responds to the challenge of reducing emissions including legislation, technology changes and economics. Legislation: The Climate Change Act (2008) binds the Government to achieve reductions in UK global warming emissions of 34% by 2020 and 80% by The Carbon Reduction Commitment requires 5000 major energy users such as universities to purchase permits to emit carbon dioxide from April Organisations will be ranked according to their performance in reducing emissions and those who do well in the resulting league table will be able to recover the cost of the permits. One of the two key indicators of good emissions reduction performance is the award of the Carbon Trust Standard. The Building Regulations control the energy and carbon emissions performance of new buildings and major refurbishments. A significant upgrade to the Building Regulations is under consideration. The University already has a policy that new buildings should exceed the Building Regulations requirements by at least 10%. The Renewables Obligation requires generators of electricity to produce at least a minimum quantity of renewable electricity. Renewables Obligation Certificates (ROCs) are issued by the Government and can be traded by generating companies who have more than the minimum necessary. The value of these tradeable certificates is one of the major financial support systems for renewable generation Page 2 of 8

3 in the UK. However, generating companies who purchase certificates also purchase the rights to the carbon emissions reductions. When considering renewable energy projects, we need to be aware that renewable electricity generated on site will not reduce our carbon emissions if the ROCs are sold. The renewable electricity has to be declared as if it was normal grid electricity together with the CO2 emissions. Technology Changes: Decarbonisation of electricity electricity is presently considered to be a high carbon source of energy, causing about three times more carbon emission per kilowatt hour than gas. However, Government plans for an increase in renewables, replacement of ageing nuclear stations and a massive increase in carbon capture and storage from fossil fuel power stations will result in the carbon emissions from electricity being reduced by about 90% by Electricity will become the fuel of choice from about 2025 when the carbon emissions from electricity should be lower than emissions from gas. Ground source heat pumps - the most efficient way to use electricity for heating is to drive a ground source heat pump (GSHP) which converts low grade heat from the ground to high grade heat for buildings. The heat from the ground is considered to be a form of renewable energy. One unit of electricity can produce up to four units of heat in a building. Ground source heat pumps can also provide cooling in summer. GSHP technology is available now but tends to be expensive compared to gas boilers. LED lighting - A revolution in lighting is under way as Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) get more efficient. LEDs have the potential to reduce energy used for lighting by 50% compared to current fluorescent lighting systems. Much greater reductions are achieved when replacing ageing lighting. Ultra low energy computers are becoming available. For example, a computer the size of a pack of cards is already available, it uses 8 watts instead of 100 watts and has equivalent performance to a basic university PC. Building Design Modelling new computer modelling techniques are facilitating the design of very low energy buildings. It is feasible to design buildings which require almost no energy for heating and cooling. Economic Factors: Global availability of oil has peaked and will decline in future. This has already contributed to unstable fossil fuel markets. The price of oil went from $60 to $150 and down to $35 dollars within a period of a few months and led to swings in the price of gas and electricity. It has become much more difficult to forecast prices. Supplies of North Sea gas peaked several years ago and we are relying more and more on pipeline imports via Eastern Europe and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports by tanker. The price of gas in the UK is heavily influenced by world market prices. We have a plentiful supply of coal in the UK, but burning it produces huge quantities of carbon dioxide. The carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology needed to allow coal to be used in future has not been fully demonstrated. Page 3 of 8

4 DECC have stated that we will make a rapid transition to a low carbon economy but this will incur additional costs. In addition to price changes driven by the market, the cost of electricity will increase by around 15% to pay for the new renewable, nuclear and CCS technology. 6) Present Carbon Management Plan Activities: The Carbon Management Plan identified 26 low cost actions and a further 9 possible projects with higher cost. These actions and projects were expected to deliver emissions reductions of around 2% per year, which would achieve the target of 60% reduction by 2050 if the rate of reduction was maintained. At present, it appears that the savings are greater than expected. 7) Further actions required to achieve DECC/HEFCE targets: The anticipated decarbonisation of electricity provides the key to achieving the 2050 targets. It is assumed that the University will adopt a heating strategy which transfers almost all heating of buildings to ground source heat pumps over the next 30 years. In addition, the University needs to continue its progress towards carbon efficient buildings, undertaking energy efficient refurbishments and sourcing a significant amount of energy from renewables where appropriate. All new buildings to be as carbon efficient as possible to achieve a carbon emissions target at least as good as the new School of Business building. Planned new buildings to have heating systems which are compatible with conversion to GSHP in future. Gas fired boiler heating systems are likely to be suitable provided they are designed to operate at low water temperatures. Under floor heating systems are ideal for use with modern condensing gas boilers and for ground source heat pumps. Modern efficient gas boilers installed now will need to be replaced by GSHP in about 15 years time. Planned new buildings should have instantaneous electric hot water provision where possible. A biomass boiler should be installed in the Estate Services Centre in Oil has 50% higher carbon emissions than gas. The Geoffrey Pope, Harrison and Streatham Farm oil fired boilers should be converted to gas firing in 2010 and Consideration could also be given to supplementing one or more of these systems with a biomass boiler. Commence conversion of lighting to LED tubes in Start a programme of replacing existing gas boilers by GSHP from 2012 so that all existing gas boilers are phased out by MW wind turbine to be operational by 2014 and ROCs to be retired not sold. Electric heating of existing buildings to be replaced with GSHP from 2014 to All new buildings beyond 2014 to be heated by GSHP or biomass. Senior management to champion carbon reduction, to require that an agreed program of measures is implemented and to hold regular reviews of carbon reduction activities to ensure the objectives and targets above are achieved. The effect of these actions is shown in the following graphs. Page 4 of 8

5 8) Heat Supply: Buildings will require heating. Some buildings will be demolished and replaced within the 40 year timescale but most of the present buildings will still be in use. New buildings will require some heating. It is expected that the demand for heat will increase slightly over the period but that, by 2050, this will be almost entirely from renewable sources, principally heat from the ground using ground source heat pumps but there would also be a significant contribution from biomass. University Sources of Heat to MWh per year Biomass GSHP Gas Oil Page 5 of 8

6 9) Electricity Demand: Electricity demand will increase slightly over the period to 2050 in spite of improved efficiency of lighting and IT equipment. Electricity used for lighting and IT must be reduced by 40% over the period in spite of increased requirements. Electricity used for direct space heating must be phased out during the next 10 years. Equipment used for ventilation and airconditioning will get more efficient but increased summer temperatures and increased usage of high demand areas such as laboratories make a decrease in total consumption unlikely. Electricity used for GSHP heating will increase to about 40% of consumption by University Electricity Demand to MWh per year GSHP Electric Miscellaneous HVAC Plant IT Services Lighting Space Heating Page 6 of 8

7 10) Electricity Supply: By 2050, the majority of electricity supply will be low carbon electricity from the Grid but a significant proportion will be from CHP and wind energy. University Electricity Sources to MWh per year CHP/Wind Electricity Page 7 of 8

8 11) Carbon Emissions from Energy: Although the University demand for heat and for electricity would increase slightly under this scenario, almost all of the heat and some of the electricity would be from renewable sources by The increased electricity usage would have a much lower carbon factor than at present with the result that University carbon emissions would be reduced by about 95% to around 1100 tonnes per year. The HEFCE commitment to reduce emissions by 80% would appear to be achievable by a significant margin. Carbon emissions from fuels with carbon offsetting to reduce net emissions to zero by Tonnes per year % reduction by 2050 Offset Oil Gas Elec 80% reduction by ) Meeting further HEFCE aspirations: It would appear to be difficult to meet the HEFCE aspiration to reduce emissions by 57% by 2020 (2006 baseline). There is no obvious method to meet the shortfall of 2,000 tonnes of CO2 pa by then. Meeting the HEFCE aspiration for 100% reduction by 2050 is achievable but will require carbon offsetting. For example, planting 100 hectares of forest (two thirds the size of Streatham Campus) would offset our remaining emissions of 1100 tonnes per year by It would also provide a long term income or a fuel supply through production of woodchip for fuel. 13) Carbon emissions from other sources: The DECC and HEFCE targets also include consideration of energy used in University owned vehicles. In 2005/06 this accounted for 0.5% of University carbon emissions. In order to address this, the Carbon Management Plan included use of 50% biodiesel in University vehicles. Production of biodiesel has been piloted at Tremough and a suitable location for a larger plant is being investigated at Streatham Campus. Additionally, consideration is being given to using electric vehicles on campus and charging points will be installed shortly. Page 8 of 8