Marxan and Reserve Selection Process: Next Steps

Transcription

1 Marxan and Reserve Selection Process: Next Steps Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan Covered Species Working Group Meeting November 21, 2011

2 Overview Where does Marxan fit in the conservation planning process? Why the Marxan approach? How does Marxan work? Case Study How will we use Marxan to support the DRECP conservation planning process?

3 Technical Components of the Conservation Planning Process 2 3 Reserve Design Approach and Broad Conservation Planning Goals 1 Develop GIS Database and Baseline Data Inventory Habitat Modeling and Analysis 4 Analysis of Gaps in Protection 5 Create the Reserve Design Develop boundaries around core areas of high biological value and habitat linkages among the cores. Iterative 6 Species Conservation Goals 7 Species-Specific Conservation Analysis 8 Final Plan Approval Process

4 The Reserve Design Process Reserve Design Approach Options: Expert only Hand draw initial preserve boundaries based on expert knowledge - Benefits: Synthesis of diverse information - Limitations: Subjective, not spatially optimized Reserve selection modeling tools Marxan only Computer algorithms (Marxan, Zonation, C-Plan) - Benefits: Objective and spatially optimized - Limitations: Only uses GIS data Combination: Best of both approaches - Develop reserve selection model - Bring expert knowledge, planning assumptions, and additional information to refine reserve design alternatives Combined Approach

5 Why Marxan? The most widely used reserve selection software in the world more than 1,300 users in over 80 countries worldwide Software has evolved, improved, and updated based on over a decade of user feedback to meet the challenges of conservation reserve design After Watts et al Conference Presentation

6 Integration of Models and Data into the Reserve Design Detailed Habitat Models Expert-based Habitat Models Marxan Reserve Selection Algorithm Statistical Habitat Models Known Species Occurrences Marxan Results Iterative Refinements Final Reserve Design Species-Specific Conservation Analysis

7 What is the purpose of Marxan? Assist in the prioritization of areas for increased conservation actions Higher Priority Areas More efficient reserve design meets more goals with less area Lower conflict areas with multiple or alternative uses Lower Priority Areas Less efficient reserve design meets fewer goals with more area Higher conflict with multiple or alternative uses

8 An Objective Approach to Conservation Areas Design: MARXAN Reserve Selection Algorithm Representation Goals Initial biological element groups include vegetation, species models, species locations, other special elements Spatial Complexity Planning unit size and shape Contiguity (edge to interior ratio) Spatial aggregation (minimum patch size) Spatial separation (redundant element locations) Optimization Modeling Efficiency: Simulated Annealing to optimize preserve design (avoids local minima) Minimize total cost of preserve while maximizing goal attainment Adjust penalties to prioritizing individual conservation targets Process Parameters Set number of iterations Set number of runs Summed runs for frequency distribution of results Marxan Efficient reserve design, include areas with most bang for buck Objective and repeatable Based on a priori conservation goals Study Area Specific Opportunities and Constraints Locked in existing preserves and linkages to other preserves Locked out approved development Adjust costs (e.g., to prioritize conservation particular lands use types)

9 What does Cost mean in Marxan? Cost is a unitless calculation of the Objective Function, not a direct indication of monetary cost. Cost for including a planning unit in the Marxan reserve design, however, result does have a real world monetary cost if that area is eventually acquired and/or managed inside a reserve.

10 Optimization of the Objective Function Algorithm to minimize Total Cost Preserve size Increases Cost Missed goal penalty Increases Cost Boundary Length (P/A) Increases Cost Total Cost Cost sitei Penalty cost for element j wb i j boundary length Note: Cost is a unitless calculation of the Objective Function, not monetary cost.

11 Using Expert Knowledge and Planning Assumptions to Refine Marxan Results

12 What is Marxan with Zones? New and significant software improvements Like Marxan, uses simulated annealing algorithm, but explicitly and systematically addresses multiple objectives Increased flexibility to address multi objective planning problems Enhanced functionality allows for multiple zones Each zone has different objectives and constraints Socioeconomic and biological objectives and constraints After Watts et al Conference Presentation

13 Marxan vs. Marxan with Zones Example: Marine Reserve Design: Rottnest Island, Western Australia Binary configuration 3 zone configuration Marxan output Marxan with Zones output After Watts et al Conference Presentation

14 Marxan with Zones is widely applied in the peer reviewed Scientific Literature

15 Case Study: California North Central Coast Marine Protected Area Design Example from Marxan with Zones User Guide (Watts et al. 2008) Purpose of example: Structure and process, not conservation assumptions Definition of Conservation Problem: Identify most efficient conservation reserve design with least socioeconomic impact Addressed biological conservation targets Distribution of species and habitats Addressed socioeconomic value targets Distribution of seven different fisheries (e.g., rockfish, squid, halibut)

16 Available Zone Activities not restricted Define Zones and Expectations for each Zone Four types of human use zones Fishing Zone: No restrictions to fishing activities. Explicitly targets best fishing areas Conservation Zone: Some fishing activities restricted Some fishing activities allowed (compatible use) Reserve Zone: All fishing activities restricted

17 Alternative Conservation Scenarios Scenario Cost * Overall Conservation Target 1a Ex vessel value 30% Reserve Zone Conservation Target 1b Ex vessel value 30% 10% 1c Ex vessel value 30% 15% 1d Ex vessel value 30% 20% 2a Relative Importance 30% 2b Relative Importance 30% 10% 2c Relative Importance 30% 15% 2d Relative Importance 30% 20% Fishery Zone Socioeconomic Value Target Three ways to consider socioeconomic values Determine Zone Specific Conservation Balance 3a Ex vessel value 30% 15% 90% 3b Ex vessel value 30% 15% 80% 3c Ex vessel value 30% 15% 70% 3d Ex vessel value 30% 15% 60% * The ex-vessel value is usually established by determining the average price for an individual species, harvested by a specific gear, in a specific area.

18 Prioritization with Feature Penalty Factors Retain 90% socioeconomic value First meet conservation targets, then meet socioeconomic targets First meet socioeconomic targets, then meet conservation targets Equal priority to meet conservation and socioeconomic targets

19 Retain 80% socioeconomic value Retain 70% socioeconomic value Retain 60% socioeconomic value

20 How will we use Marxan to support the DRECP conservation planning process? Desert-wide Conservation Analysis Reserve design for entire plan area based on regional conservation goals Provides spatial conservation context for DRECP reserve selection Considers all covered species and natural communities Incorporates existing protected areas as a part of a desert wide reserve network Marxan conservation targets set to clearly map prioritization of reserve selection options DRECP reserve selection and conservation goals are a nested subset of desertwide analysis and Marxan conservation targets

21 Use Marxan with Zones to Assist Desert wide Conservation Analysis Conduct comprehensive conservation planning and reserve design Comprehensive Address entire plan area Address full suite of species and natural communities Address all ownership and land management Address stakeholder interests and concerns Address socioeconomics Address regulatory issues

22 Comprehensive Conservation Planning Consider conservation needs of all covered species, natural communities, and ecological processes Core reserves and connectivity Considered needs of multiple use public lands Multiple use mandate and multiple use compatibility Consider needs of renewable resource development Distribution of renewable resources and socioeconomic factors Consider needs of REAT agencies and permitees Basis for land use plan amendments, ESA/NCCPA permiting, and effective plan implementation process

23 DRECP Marxan Reserve Selection Process Species, Communities, Ecological Processes Conservation targets for All natural vegetation communities All 86 species Expert models or statistical models Occurrences Corridors and key linkages Some mapped ecological processes E.g., dune systems

24 DRECP Marxan Reserve Selection Process Multiple Use areas vs. Core reserves Variable conservation targets for different zones Each zone has it s own actions, objectives, and constraints FOR EXAMPLE: Reserve Zone: Existing reserves and New Hardline reserves (100% conservation, no development) Multiple Use Conservation Zone: Multiple Use Lands (<100% conservation, multiple compatible/semicompatible uses, limited development) Could have more than one multiple use zone (e.g., High bio value and low bio value) Primary Development Zone: No/few restrictions on development, multiple uses, some limited essential conservation, e.g., narrow endemic population

25 Available Zone Activities not restricted Define Zones and Expectations for each Zone Remember the MPA example Fishing Zone: No restrictions to fishing activities. Explicitly targets best fishing areas Conservation Zone: Some fishing activities restricted Some fishing activities allowed (compatible use) Reserve Zone: All fishing activities restricted

26 Define DRECP Zones and Expectations for each Zone SAMPLE: Four types of DRECP zones Available Zone Activities not restricted by DRECP but not covered by DRECP Primary Development Zone: No/few restrictions to covered activities. Explicitly targets best renewable resource areas Multiple Use Conservation Zone: Many covered activities restricted Dispersed or low impact activities allowed (compatible use) Reserve Zone: All covered activities restricted

27 DRECP Marxan Reserve Selection Process Quantify Renewable Resources to conserve development potential Incorporate renewable resources as a feature to optimize distribution within primary development zone (e.g., potential Development Focus Areas) Incorporate renewable resources values in each planning unit Use Marxan to minimize restrictions on renewable resource development Balance effects of reserve design equitably across solar, wind, geothermal Zone compatibility for nested conservation areas Setting zone boundary costs helps separate development areas from core preserves, buffered by multiple use areas

28 DRECP Marxan Reserve Selection Process Needs of REAT agencies Objective, science-based quantification of conservation and take to support potential land use plan amendments, BO and CDFG/USFWS findings to support permit issuance Needs of permitees Direct incorporation of multiple stakeholder interests to build acceptable conservation strategy Reserve design becomes spatial framework for implementation of project permitting and DRECP reserve design and conservation actions

29 Marxan Next Steps Include all covered species, communities, models and occurrence data Define the zoning framework What are the zones? Reserve, Multiple Use, Development Define the conservation problem for Marxan Conservation targets, multiple use objectives, value of renewable resources within each planning unit, conservation and land use compatibility Describe series of scenarios, for example 1. Biological targets with zone conservation targets 2. Scenario 1 + planning unit costs linked to renewable resource value distribution 3. Scenario 2 + specific targets for renewable resource value 4. Scenario 3 + locked in planning units for potential focused development areas